What follows is a brief overview of the results in electorates I felt worth commenting on for one reason or another, together with projections of state vote shares based on ordinary votes results (which are not quite fully accounted for in the count, but close enough to it) and the extent to which postals, pre-polls and absent votes shifted the totals in 2010. New South Wales, Queensland and the Northern Territory are covered herein, with the others to follow.
New South Wales
% Swing Projection Coalition 47.3 +2.6 47.2 Labor 34.9 -2.8 34.5 Greens 7.7 -2.2 8.1 Palmer United 4.3 Others 5.8 Two-party preferred Coalition 54.2 +3.2 54.3 Labor 45.8 -3.2 45.7
Banks. The 3.3% swing which ousted Daryl Melham was almost exactly equal to the state total, which followed an 8.9% swing in 2010. An increase in the number of candidates from four to nine restricted the Liberal primary vote gain to 1.7% and contributed to a halving of the Greens vote, down from 9.6% to 4.7%.
Barton. The seat vacated by former Attorney-General Robert McClelland is going down to the wire, the 6.9% margin exactly matched by the swing on ordinary votes. This was the second biggest swing against Labor in Sydney after Macquarie. Barton was another seat that witnessed a dramatic proliferation of candidates, from three to eight, with the five minor party and independent newcomers collectively drawing 11.3%. The Liberals nonetheless increased their primary vote slightly, the balance coming off Labor and the Greens.
Blaxland. Reports on the eve of the election suggested Labor had grave fears for Jason Clare’s hold on Paul Keating’s old seat, despite its 12.2% margin. This proved entirely unfounded, with Labor up 5.4% on the primary vote and holding steady on two-party preferred.
Charlton. For some reason, the seat vacated by Greg Combet gave the Palmer United Party what was comfortably its highest vote in New South Wales at 11.3% (UPDATE: Frickeg in comments reminds me the belated disendorsement of the Liberal candidate probably had something to do with it). The party’s second best showing in the state was 7.8% in neighbouring Hunter. That aside, Combet’s departure did not cause any disturbance to Labor, the two-party swing being slightly below the state average.
Dobell. Craig Thomson managed 4.0%, which was at least better than Peter Slipper and contributed to a double-digit drop in the Labor primary vote, their worst such result in the state. Also contributing was former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, running as an independent with the backing of John Singleton, who managed 8.3%. The Liberal primary vote was up slightly, and its 5.9% swing on two-party preferred adequate to account for the 5.5% margin.
Eden-Monaro. Mike Kelly appeared to be well placed early in the count, but the larger and later reporting booths, including those in Queanbeyan, tended to swing more heavily. Kelly is presently sitting on a swing of 4.8%, enough to account for his 4.4% margin barring late count peculiarities and maintain Eden-Monaro’s cherished bellwether record. This was higher than the state average, part of a pattern in which swings in the state’s regions were actually slightly higher than in Sydney, contrary to all expectations.
Fowler. After all the hype about Labor’s looming collapse in western Sydney, a seat in that very area produced the most anomalous swing of the election in Labor’s favour. The 9.0% swing to Chris Hayes was 12.2% above the statewide par for Labor, and was fuelled by an 11.2% drop in the Liberal primary vote and swings approaching 20% in Cabramatta, the very area the Liberals had hoped to target by picking a Vietnamese candidate in Andrew Nguyen. However, look at the seat’s behaviour over longer range suggests this to have been a correction after an anomalous result in 2010, when Liberal candidate Thomas Dang slashed the Labor margin by 13.8% and picked up swings ranging from 16.5% to 23.1% in the Cambramatta booths.
Gilmore. The south coast seat was one of three in New South Wales to swing to Labor, presumably on account of the retirement of long-serving Liberal member Joanna Gash. Her successor, Ann Sudmalis, has emerged with 2.6% remaining of a 5.3% margin.
Grayndler. The Greens vote fell only modestly, by 1.2% to 22.8%, but it looks enough to have cost them a second place they attained for the first time in 2010. With primary votes generally fairly static, the change in Liberal preferencing policy would presumably have inflicted a hefty two-party swing if they had made the final count.
Hunter. Joel Fitzgibbon was down 10.1% on the primary vote, and while this was partly on account of the Palmer United Party’s second best performance in the state, he also suffered Labor’s biggest two-party swing in the state at 8.9%.
Kingsford Smith. One of a number of pieces of saved furniture for Labor in Sydney, Kingsford Smith turned in a largely status quo result in Peter Garrett’s absence, outgoing Senator Matt Thistlethwaite easily defending a 5.2% margin against a swing of 1.9%.
Lindsay. The swing that unseated David Bradbury was slightly on the high side for Sydney at 3.5%, more than accounting for a margin of 1.1% without meeting the more fevered expectations of a western Sydney disaster.
Macarthur. Liberal sophomore Russell Matheson picked up the second biggest two-party Coalition swing in New South Wales, up 6.8% on the primary vote and 8.4% on two-party preferred.
Page. The expectation that Labor would perform better in regional New South Wales than in Sydney was most strikingly defied in Page, where Janelle Saffin unexpectedly fell victim to a 7.2% swing.
Parramatta. Julie Owens’ seat produced a fairly typical result for Sydney in swinging 3.4% to the Liberals, which hasn’t been enough to account for the 4.4% margin. (UPDATE: I speak too soon. In keeping with a general trend of late counting away from Labor, postal votes are flowing heavily to the Liberals and putting Owens at very serious risk.)
Robertson. As expected, the seat Deborah O’Neill did well to retain in 2010 with a margin of 1.0% was an early election night casualty for Labor, the swing of 4.0% being perfectly typical for non-metropolitan New South Wales.
Throsby. Gary “Angry” Anderson managed 10.5% as candidate of the Nationals, nearly doubling the party’s vote from 2010 despite the number of candidates being up from five to 11. The Greens conversely were well down, by 6.5% to 5.3%.
Werriwa. Frequently written off during the campaign, Laurie Ferguson is set to retain about 2.2% of his 6.8% margin from 2010.
Queensland
% Swing Projection Coalition 45.3 -1.9 45.5 Labor 30.1 -3.9 29.7 Greens 6.1 -4.7 6.2 Palmer United 11.3 Others 7.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 56.0 +1.1 56.3 Labor 44.0 -1.1 43.7
Blair. One Labor MP with good cause to feel glad about Kevin Rudd’s return was Shayne Neumann, who picked up a 1.4% two-party swing and held firm on the primary vote in the face of 12.8% vote for the Palmer United Party. Here as elsewhere in Queensland, the Greens crashed in the absence of the Kevin Rudd protest vote in 2010, dropping 6.9% to 4.2%.
Brisbane. While Labor had much to be relieved about in Queensland, its high hopes for recovering Brisbane were not realised, with Liberal National Party member Teresa Gamabaro up 1.8% on the primary vote, Labor steady. A 6.9% drop in the Greens vote to 14.3%, coming off Andrew Bartlett’s high-profile campaign in 2010, produced a significantly weaker flow of preferences to Labor.
Capricornia. The central Queensland seat vacated by Kirsten Livermore is going down to the wire after a heavy 8.9% drop in the Labor primary vote. This was mostly down to the competition from the Palmer and Katter parties, the former outscoring the latter 7.9% to 5.3%. With the Liberal National Party vote little changed, Labor suffered a 4.4% swing on ordinary votes off a margin of 4.6%.
Fairfax. Clive Palmer seems to be fighting to hold on to a 1411 against a strong trend in late counting towards Liberal National Party candidate Ted O’Brien. However, O’Brien’s current vote count looks to have been inflated by a discrepancy you can read about here. As things stand, the key to Palmer’s potential victory is his clear success in outpolling Labor 27.3% to 18.1% on ordinary votes, with LNP candidate Ted O’Brien’s 41.0% below the safety zone with Labor and Greens preferences flowing strongly against him.
Fisher. With Palmer United Party candidate Bill Schoch apparently primed to overtake Labor on preferences, despite trailing them 21.0% to 18.3% on the primary vote, Mal Brough’s 43.8% share of the vote was an uncomfortably long distance from the 50% mark. Nonetheless, Brough appears to be gaining about a quarter of the overall preferences on offer, enough to get him over the line with a few per cent to spare.
Griffith. Kevin Rudd suffered Labor’s equal biggest swing in Queensland of 5.2%, with Bill Glasson’s 5.9% lift on the primary vote the second highest achieved by an LNP candidate.
Kennedy. Bob Katter emerged a big loser of election night with a 17.1% slump in his primary vote, reducing him to 29.5%. Liberal National Party candidate Noeline Ikin was the beneficiary of a 14.0% spike that put her well in front on the primary vote count with 40.6%, but preferences are flowing solidly enough to Katter to leave him with a margin slightly below 3%.
Leichhardt. There was strong movement to Labor in Aboriginal communities, doubtless reflecting the background of Labor candidate Billy Gordon. This briefly created the illusion of a potential Labor victory as the first booth-matched results came through on election night, but that was negated by a strong performance by LNP member Warren Entsch in Cairns and the electorate’s rural areas.
Lilley. The 1.6% swing against Wayne Swan was well in line with the statewide norm, and if anything a little above it. Given the pre-election publicity though, Swan’s success in retaining almost all of his 2010 primary vote was among the results that lifted Labor’s spirits on an otherwise grim evening.
Petrie. Kevin Rudd’s election night boast of having defended all of Labor’s Queensland seats to the contrary, it appears that Yvette d’Ath has been unseated by a swing of 3.0% on the ordinary votes, compared with her pre-election margin of 2.5%.
Northern Territory
% Swing Projection Coalition 41.2 +0.8 41.6 Labor 38.3 -0.2 37.7 Greens 7.7 -5.0 7.9 Palmer United 4.6 Others 8.2 Two-party preferred Coalition 49.7 +0.9 50.1 Labor 50.3 -0.9 49.9
Lingiari. As usual, swings in the extra-Darwin Northern Territory electorate were all over the shop, the general picture being of a slight swing to Labor in remote communities blunting the swing against Labor to 2.7%, short of Warren Snowdon’s 3.7% margin. This followed a 2010 result which delivered huge swings to the Country Liberal Party in remote communities but partly balanced them out with strong swings to Labor in the major centre, specifically Alice Springs.
Solomon. Natasha Griggs, who unseated Labor’s Damien Hale in 2010, notably failed to enjoy a sophomore surge, Solomon delivering a rare 0.7% swing to Labor to reduce the CLP margin to 0.9%.
[Still waiting for Julia Gillard’s apology to Rudd and Australians.]
Nobody cares
AA
The Kouk was responding to the reportage in the Daily terror as mentioned by Centre
“Still waiting for Julia Gillard’s apology to Rudd and Australians.”
Ha! Ha! …you poor lonely deluded fool …move on for the sake of your own mental health 😉
PS: You missed opportunity to hear Julia in conversation with Anne Summers later this month …tickets sold within hours. Perhaps you’ll get another chance to learn something from our greatest living former PM another time… Lol!!
markjs@1146
I have read some US articles on the ‘Australian Ballot’ and they also describe it as ‘instant run-off’ as it achieves a similar effect to having two rounds in an election like the French do.
A helpful way of thinking about it I feel.
But wait … there’s more! …
[ I assume that by not calling the election Rudd was buying himself time to work out the great vision for the country…full of hope and aspiration and energy and enthusiasm,’ he said.
‘What we got was turgid and uninspiring grab bag of stunts and ill conceived policies on the run. There was no strategy, it was all tactics. The was no central theme, just an assortment of contradictory thought balloons.’ ]
I think this is a fairly honest assessment of your poster boy, bemused.
In fact, I recall saying pretty much exactly the same thing during the campaign.
It’s always nice to be proven to be correct – even though in this case I would much prefer to have been proven wrong.
[ Oh, so you can do selective quoting. ]
Better than you, apparently.
victoria
Posted Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
AA
The Kouk was responding to the reportage in the Daily terror as mentioned by Centre
——————————–
Reside in north west of WA..never read a DT, never seen one
I don’t even get the one paper we have in WA
OK, so perhaps some one can clarify this for me. Some people here appear to be arguing that the ALP should move to the ‘right’ ?
Isn’t there already a group of parties, that are already to the right, that we call the ‘Coalition’ ?
Considering that the Fibs do right so much better then anyone else, what on earth do you jokers think will be acheived if the ALP moves to the right ?
Do you want to see the ALP in oppostion evermore, or do you actually want to see the ALP win an election occasionally ?
Becuase sure as hell, if te ALP dismisses the left and insists on moving right, no one, apart from careerest hacks, would ever vote for them.
Rudd ran a crap campaign …from day 1 …right up to day 35 …it was all about him…
Player One@1156
You disregard the piece on how the outcome was compared to how it would have been with Gillard.
Yes, I concede, a better campaign might have done even better. I favoured a later election to allow more time to get organised. We will never know if that would have worked better.
[You gotta laugh]
I am waiting for my household costs to decrease, as Abbott promised. In around two months time I’ll receive my first post-election power bill. That should be the first to show signs of cost of living relief.
[Rudd ran a crap campaign …from day 1 …right up to day 35 …it was all about him…]
Yep. He well and truly shattered the myth of the Great Campaigner.
[PS: You missed opportunity to hear Julia in conversation with Anne Summers later this month …tickets sold within hours. Perhaps you’ll get another chance to learn something from our greatest living former PM another time… Lol!!]
Did she apologise or just wave to the fanboys?
Greatest living PM LoL – yeh sure, hated by the public, poisoned Labor’s well, betrayed the voting public by back stabbing a first term PM for no reason…then proceeded to trash Labor’s PV all the way down to 29%.
Aust greatest living PM if you are a Liberal supporter.
[Centre
Posted Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 10:08 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
I lost]
Well, despite being way off with my prediction, I did some crafty betting this time (I don’t normally bet, but would have made a motza if I had over the last 10 years). It looks like I am going to end up a pretty penny or two ahead!
Yipee!!!! :)*
*Mod Lib does not encourage gambling and supports the moves by Wilkie/Xenophon**
**Mod Lib declares that he also made a motza @ Crown recently but still supports those above
What Rod Cameron is saying is that any “furniture” that was saved at this election was saved by act of removing Gillard. Any replacement of Gillard – by Stephen Smith, for example – would have achieved the same effect. Rudd added no value to Labor’s vote other than by not being Gillard. In fact his ramshackle, self-centered campaign probably achieved a worse result than some other replacement would have achieved. The rise in the polls in July initial relief that Rudd was not Gillard, but voters soon discovered that Rudd was still Rudd, and the polls fell again.
[ Yes, I concede, a better campaign might have done even better. I favoured a later election to allow more time to get organised. We will never know if that would have worked better. ]
You can’t even see the errors in your own logic, can you?
markjs@1159
Your specs and hearing aid need fixing.
[The rise in the polls in July initial relief that Rudd was not Gillard, but voters soon discovered that Rudd was still Rudd, and the polls fell again.]
Yes, I agree.
[The rise in the polls in July initial relief]
That should read: “The rise in the polls in July REFLECTED initial relief…”
Psephos @ 1137. Thanks for that. My recollection is that such state-wide “by-elections” at a general election were comparatively rare, since they only arose at times when the House and Senate elections were out of alignment; and that more often, the casual vacancy or vacancies would be addressed by having a six or seven vacancy Senate election next time around, instead of a five vacancy election. (The last such “by-election” would have been in Queensland in 1972, after Senator Bonner had been appointed to replace Senator Rankin.)
What I was really wondering, though, was what led it to be included as an amendment in 1977. Was it just seen as a cognate or consequential amendment in the light of the need to give legal force to the reinstatement of the proportionality-maintaining practice which had been breached in 1975 by Lewis and Bjelke-Petersen by the Bunton and Field appointments? Or did Mr Whitlam’s attempt to use the Gair appointment to manipulate the (ultimately superseded) Queensland half-Senate election of 1974 make people think that the opportunity for such manipulation should be stamped out?
[ Yep. He well and truly shattered the myth of the Great Campaigner. ]
I never understood that myth. Rudd was always a crap campaigner. Some people have very short memories.
Even Bill Shorten today recognized the campaign wasn’t about Labor.
Let’s hope Labor can actually do it this time.
[What I was really wondering, though, was what led it to be included as an amendment in 1977. Was it just seen as a cognate or consequential amendment in the light of the need to give legal force to the reinstatement of the proportionality-maintaining practice which had been breached in 1975 by Lewis and Bjelke-Petersen by the Bunton and Field appointments? Or did Mr Whitlam’s attempt to use the Gair appointment to manipulate the (ultimately superseded) Queensland half-Senate election of 1974 make people think that the opportunity for such manipulation should be stamped out?]
I don’t recall. There was bipartisan support for the 1977 referendum so I assume the wording was agreed between the parties, each agreeing to renounce the right to try to rig the Senate in the ways you describe.
Player One@1166
I see dissonance in you talking of logic.
[ Aust greatest living PM if you are a Liberal supporter. ]
No, that title would now be held by Rudd.
Gillard beat Abbott, remember? Rudd lost to him in a catastrophic landslide.
Mod Lib
Wilkie and Xenephon – POPPYCOCK!
And forget the Casinos!
Go:
– Bunnies
– Cows
– Sea Eagles
– Nu Ca Stle
:kiss:
[Rudd ran a crap campaign …from day 1 …right up to day 35 …it was all about him…]
Hmmm and if it were all about Julia Labor would now be with 37 seats.
Rudd saved Gillard from being remembered only for being one of Labor’s destroyers. Rudd saved many MPs jobs. Rudd made it possible for Labor to win at the next election.
When it comes to Gillard’s guard their raising her to the pedestal has always had to be on the back of slagging Rudd. It is a curious relationship that her supporters have had to adopt, she can only be considered good if Rudd is considered bad and thus the continual Rudd hate.
Even now the neccessity of slagging Rudd is all for the purpose of making Gillard look successful. When in fact Rudd was the guy that just saved her reputation.
[ I see dissonance in you talking of logic. ]
Are those voices in your head bothering you again?
[ABC News @abcnews 3m
In case you missed it, Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella has declined a frontbench position in the new Govt. http://bit.ly/1b7Ta2T #knowthestory ]
The ABC seems to be delighting in the MP’s woes. 🙂
‘I never understood that myth. Rudd was always a crap campaigner. Some people have very short memories.’
More like in your case very selective memories. Even Latham admits that Rudd had a great last week. And I suppose anyone could have defeated Howard.
Really is there anything more tiresome and self indulgent than these Rudd hating bores?
[ Really is there anything more tiresome and self indulgent than these Rudd hating bores? ]
Yes, the Rudd lovers who are still trying to rewrite history to turn a catastrophic and wholly unnecessary loss into some mighty victory for their hero.
I said many months ago that I thought Gillard would step down in March or so, if the polls didn’t improve. I was wrong. She didn’t. Actually, to my disappointment. I also said I thought Albo should have been her replacement. As events have unfolded, I now wish both of my wishes had come true. I don’t think Albo would have won. But I do think the result would have been a lot closer. With 6 months as PM, he would have given Abbott a real run for his money. We will never know of course. But for the same reasons as before,I would prefer Albo to be LOO, even though I don’t think it’s going to happen now.thats life
I said many months ago that I thought Gillard would step down in March or so, if the polls didn’t improve. I was wrong. She didn’t. Actually, to my disappointment. I also said I thought Albo should have been her replacement. As events have unfolded, I now wish both of my wishes had come true. I don’t think Albo would have won. But I do think the result would have been a lot closer. With 6 months as PM, he would have given Abbott a real run for his money. We will never know of course. But for the same reasons as before,I would prefer Albo to be LOO, even though I don’t think it’s going to happen now.thats life
Player One@1181
So Gillard would have won according to you? 😮
Few are quite that deluded.
[1165
Psephos
Posted Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 10:30 pm | PERMALINK
What Rod Cameron is saying is that any “furniture” that was saved at this election was saved by act of removing Gillard. Any replacement of Gillard – by Stephen Smith, for example – would have achieved the same effect. Rudd added no value to Labor’s vote other than by not being Gillard. In fact his ramshackle, self-centered campaign probably achieved a worse result than some other replacement would have achieved. The rise in the polls in July initial relief that Rudd was not Gillard, but voters soon discovered that Rudd was still Rudd, and the polls fell again.]
The most sensible, succinct and comprehensible summary I’ve read so far.
Your nothing if not predictable Player One.
It’s over and it’s time to face the future and Rudd knows it. It’s just obsessives like you who are locked in the past.
OMG WTF?
[Coalition MP Dennis Jensen, who is a vocal climate science sceptic, has called on Prime Minister-elect Tony Abbott to appoint him as science minister.
“At the moment to be honest I’m feeling under-utilised,” said Dr Jensen, the member for Tangney in Western Australia, who has a master’s degree in physics and a PhD in material science.
“I think that I’ve got a lot to offer,” he added. “I’ve got some unique attributes.”
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-sceptic-mp-dennis-jensen-wants-to-be-science-minister-20130912-2tltt.html#ixzz2egLFVjdf ]
Please Abbott, please nominate this person for a Cabinet or at least a front bench role!
That student who organised the NBN petition admitted to voting LNP. SO he votes LNP and then expects the saintly Abbott and Malcolm to give him NBN to the home?- silly student- I wonder what and where he is studying? Any reputable University would disown him.
[ So Gillard would have won according to you?
Few are quite that deluded. ]
Let me give you a lesson – let’s call it “Selective Quoting 101” …
“We will never know if that would have worked better. ” — bemused, post 1160.
Do you see now why I say you have errors in your logic?
Remember, in Bizarro world where Gillard is still leader, the election hasn’t been held yet.
[Coalition MP Dennis Jensen, who is a vocal climate science sceptic, has called on Prime Minister-elect Tony Abbott to appoint him as science minister.]
The latest in a long line of proofs that being highly educated does not confer common sense. Jensen and Laming are I think the two most highly qualified Liberal MPs, and both are complete fools.
I don’t believe it. Still fighting the Gillard Rudd wars.
News for people on both sides. That war is O.V.E.R. (Country song style)
Have your different opinions sure. Just don’t die in a ditch for them because then you will not learn how to move on with a stronger party as a result.
————————————-
Lateline highlighted the comments from Jakarta and had a bit more information.
Apparently they were laughing harder at shop the boats than we were here in PB.
Pity the media did not tell us that before the election,
[Perhaps you’ll get another chance to learn something from our greatest living former PM another time]
Is Keating speaking somewhere?
[ That student who organised the NBN petition admitted to voting LNP. SO he votes LNP and then expects the saintly Abbott and Malcolm to give him NBN to the home?- silly student- I wonder what and where he is studying? Any reputable University would disown him. ]
I think he probably just took Abbott at his word – i.e. that you couldn’t trust anything he said … oh, wait – I see what you mean!
Kennett couldnt even last two terms. and he had policies.
Abbott is just as despised and mistrusted.
more importanly, he has no policies.
if the alp can get it’s act togther, they can confine Abbott a three year curio.
Player One@1189
The difference being that we knew where Gillard was in the polls and there was no reason to expect any improvement and every reason to expect things to get even worse.
Eh, give him a break. The NBN is probably not his priority, even though he wants it. So he does the sensible thing which is vote in the side that addresses whatever priorities he has, then uses some other channel to try convince them they should continue with the NBN.
That kind of proactive approach is much better than the pathos of voting informal.
[Peter Phelps, MLC, the Liberal whip in the NSW Legislative Council, marked the occasion with a speech in praise of the dictator who died without ever standing trial for 300 human rights violations.
“Tonight I make the case for Augusto Pinochet,” Mr Phelps’s speech began. “There are many who believe that General Pinochet was a reluctant hero, a morally courageous man,” he said.
“Yes, Pinochet killed people. If anyone knows of any other way to overthrow a government than by military force, then let me hear about it.
“Sometimes it is necessary to do bad things to prevent terrible things from happening,” Mr Phelps said
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-barry-ofarrells-enforcer-peter-phelps-praises-former-chilean-dictator-20130912-2tnem.html#ixzz2egOggLXG ]
He is Dr Jensen. Is he a PhD or a medico?
Incidentally, I believe he hails from the same faction which gave Australia Jaymes Diaz.
[ Still fighting the Gillard Rudd wars. ]
Gillard vs Rudd is sooo last week!
Now it’s the Albo vs Shorten war!
Some of the ALP members here never seem to learn that this kind of factional crap is exactly why they got voted out.
Dr Phelps, that is.