ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

A new ReachTEL poll offers Labor some vague encouragement, and concurs with Morgan and Essential in having Clive Palmer’s party at 4% nationally.

This morning’s Seven Sunrise (which the Liberal Party is carpet-bombing with advertising) has results from a ReachTEL automated phone poll, reporting primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition and 4% for the Palmer United Party (remarkable unanimity on that figure from pollsters lately). (UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition vote turns out to round to 44%, not 45%, and the Greens are on 9.7%.) The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 a week ago. Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47 on ReachTEL’s all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, and 51% of respondents reported they favoured abolishing the carbon tax against 34% opposed.

In an otherwise quiet day on the polling front yesterday, AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, showing Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 44%, and the Greens on 10%.

Finally, to give you something to look at, I’ve extended yesterday’s exercise of providing a state-level BludgerTrack chart for Queensland across all mainland states, with two-party preferred shown along with the primary vote. Once again, black represents the combined “others” vote. Note that the data gets “noisier” as sample sizes diminish for the smaller states. This is not as bad as it looks though with respect to the trendlines, as the outliers are generally from the smallest samples and the model is weighted to limit the influence.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,993 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. Diogenes @ 1678: Re those AEC postal vote receipt figures: if you look at the seat by seat breakdown on the AEC website, it’s pretty clear that the ALP is running a targeted postal vote operation in a limited number of seats, whereas the LNP seems to have take more of a blanket approach. And another factor is that about 380,000 people have applied directly to the AEC using the new online postal vote application facility. So the macro figures probably don’t mean much.

  2. [ He wouldn’t sell his arse to the independents 3 years ago because he was saving it for Rupert. ]

    Virginity is an opposition leader’s greatest gift …

  3. The following is zoidlord responding to a question about sustainable bandwidth output by servers outside of Australia when they are sending data to 1000s of users on 100MB/sec connections, and what servers are capable of doing this. The comparison of zoidlords response would be like saying 1000 adsl users could all connect to 5 adsl users and all 1000 adsl users would have a maximum sustained download speed.

    Hash Convicts
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
    So again, what server outside of AU will output to 1000s of customers downloading at 100MB/sec and sustain this under load?
    Should be easy to answer? Unless of course….
    The response….

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:33 pm | Permalink
    @Hash Convicts/1364
    Bittorrent, Video, Cloud Computing, Telehealth…
    Your excuse is that, we shouldn’t build it, that’s like saying we shouldn’t have kept Telstra, so sell it.
    Yet, a few years later, we now want to build it, but your guys, want FTTN which, under law, requires compensation.
    Unless you get Telstra to build it.

    So here is zoidlord claiming that NO ONE uses Rapidshare, only to claim a few posts later his friend uses it, however he claims his friend uses a Rapidshare program which allows him to host a server, people do not host servers with Rapidshare, they pay for hosting. Does this guy ever keep track of his own bs?

    zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, September 3, 2013 at 11:52 pm | Permalink
    Oh dear.
    And nobody uses Rapidshare etc, because most people use bittorrent and usenet.

    zoidlord
    Posted Wednesday, September 4, 2013 at 12:13 am | Permalink
    You have other software for Rapidshare etc that can make use of your connection (I have friend on 100Mbps cable that does it).

  4. I voted early today. No queue. No questions as to why. Not surprised more people are voting early… At the last election I queued for an hour. Better things to do on a Saturday….

  5. bemused

    Download the postal votes Excel file. At the top, it says the origin of the postal application vote.

    They are either GPV (whatever that is), AEC (Online), AEC (Paper) or the different parties.

  6. Diogenes

    Do we know what the AEC issued postal vote # was last time

    Hoping that it is way up and it is just that ALP decided to let people go though AEC rather than party (hoping as I said)

    In any case, I always get the LNP to help with my postal vote as it wastes their time

  7. [In any case, I always get the LNP to help with my postal vote as it wastes their time]

    How do you know they don’t open it and “accidentally” lose it if you vote the wrong way? :devil:

  8. pedant

    [Re those AEC postal vote receipt figures: if you look at the seat by seat breakdown on the AEC website, it’s pretty clear that the ALP is running a targeted postal vote operation in a limited number of seats, whereas the LNP seems to have take more of a blanket approach. And another factor is that about 380,000 people have applied directly to the AEC using the new online postal vote application facility. So the macro figures probably don’t mean much.]

    Thanks. It might then reflect the ALP conserving money in safe seats. I didn’t compare the numbers for each seat to last time.

  9. [How can it if the votes are not counted?]

    It just shows how many postal votes went through the Coalition (400k) versus the ALP (160k).

    It doesn’t show who the folks voted for. However, if you asked the LNP for a postal vote form, you probably vote LNP.

  10. @Hash Convicts/1755

    What I am saying is that you were claiming that you couldn’t use the full potential of the connection, I am suggesting otherwise.

    So it is you that claiming things.

  11. Diogenes@1758

    bemused

    Download the postal votes Excel file. At the top, it says the origin of the postal application vote.

    They are either GPV (whatever that is), AEC (Online), AEC (Paper) or the different parties.

    Closed that site now but read 1760 to see how little that means.

  12. bemused @ 1761: Where someone has sent a postal vote application received from a party back to that party, and the party then passes it on to the AEC, the AEC records it as having come through that particular party. That’s what the spreadsheet shows. That’s why there are very few coming from the Greens, since they don’t run targeted postal vote operations. But even where the parties haven’t bothered to mail out application forms, sometimes people will bring them in to the candidate’s office, and they then get passed on to the AEC. That’s probably why some seats are showing single figure returns from a major party.

  13. I have completed my penultimate analysis of the marginal seat betting market before the 2013 election (I will complete the last one late Friday night). Some shifts have certainly been evident.

    Far from the potential Gillard blood bath, Kevin managed a furniture-saving effort during the middle weeks of the election which appears to have eroded sharply since the 20th of August.

    This is in contrast to the most recent TPP polls, particularly with the interesting and insightful comments from William on the wild cards presented by both Katter and Palmer parties and some surprisingly consistent polling on these. Both parties are showing self-reported advantage to the ALP in preferences, which would suggest a tighter TPP than those outfits still using preference allocations from the last election.

    Here are the results:

    Coalition seats: 73+ 24 +2 = 99
    ALP seats: 72 -24 +1 = 49
    Wilkie: 1
    Katter: 1

    Now, I have been very supportive of the Margin Seat Betting Market as a predictor of election outcome for 6 elections now. I must admit, I am finding these figures a little hard to believe and can’t really give a plausible reason for the shift at this stage.

    It appears that Kevin Rudd has gained some polling ground over the last week, (would you concur, William?), so I can’t really understand the number of seats that seem to have fallen on this market. One factor that I can see is that 7 of these seats that have changed to the coalition were within 8% in terms of implied probability on the 20th of August.

    So, this could be the litmus test for the Margin Seat Betting Market as a predictor of electoral outcomes or a large plate of raw eggs for my face here!

    So, as it stands, the MSBM is currently predicting a technical landslide to the coalition, however unlikely that may seem from recent polling results.

    If a week is a long time in politics, then the last three days before an election is an eon.

    let me put my helmet on before you pollbludgers throw your bricks….:)

  14. “@MayorDarcy: 10 mins into interview Tony Jones has failed to ask Greg Hunt a Q about having this week walked away from 5% emissions reduction #lateline”

  15. One of the Realtech questions was do you think a govt should stick to its promises or ensure they get a surplus and dump promises.

    I said must keep promises…put the pressure on Abbott to find money to pay for his doubling of defence spending and other such unbelievable statements.

  16. Actually ML… no

    A friend of mine who lives in Eden-Monaro… she’s not voting Liberal, but she said ‘eh, they offered me a postal vote, saves me having to do anything’… I’m not saying it’s not universal experience at all – but if the ALP is targeting their PV operation and the LNP aren’t…

    Best not to read too much into it.

  17. So when they interview Abbott one day in the future in how come he kept none of his election promises…he will say that he only said those things and didn’t write them down and that he already told people that when he speaks he is lying…only when he writes things down might he being honest.

    And Tony Jones will go… ‘fair enough then’ …next question

  18. The seat by seat is interesting, actually!

    Coalition twice as many postals as ALP (or more) in the following as examples:
    Eden-Monaro
    Greenway
    Grayndler
    Kingsford-Smith
    Lindsay
    Warier
    Griffith
    Plus every Tassie seat!

  19. [ The following is zoidlord responding to a question about sustainable bandwidth output by servers outside of Australia when they are sending data to 1000s of users on 100MB/sec connections, and what servers are capable of doing this. ]

    HashConvicts, all you are doing is demonstrating your ignorance of the internet. Proxy servers and caching are fairly well-known technique for reducing latency and increasing apparent bandwidth across international links, and these are especially suitable for high-bandwidth but essentially static content such as video.

    Basically, if 1000 users in Australia are all accessing the same streaming video feed from the US, only one copy ever needs to actually be fetched from the US. It is cached on a local server and can then be fed at high speed to as many local recipients as necessary … provided you have an NBN locally, of course.

  20. Guytaur

    I accept your point but if that is the case, why have MSBMs got a better record of predicting the final result of an election?

    If the implied odds were ‘bogus’ or ‘plumped’ as you seem to suggest, then how does the result fall in line with predictions?

  21. Got a postal vote form from the CLP for my 90 year old mother in law…. returned it direct to AEC.

    Pretty good idea how she will vote since she don’t speak English…and always asks us to tell her who to vote for…

  22. Here goes:

    National 2PP: 53.6-46.4 to Coalition

    National Seat Count

    Coalition: 94
    Labor: 54
    Other: 2 (Katter & Wilkie)

    Seats Changing hands (from Labor to Coalition, unless otherwise specified.)

    NSW

    Greenway
    Robertson
    Lindsay
    Banks
    Reid
    Page
    Eden-Monaro
    Parramatta
    Dobell (from Other to Coalition)
    New England (from Other to Coalition)
    Lyne (from Other to Coalition)

    Vic

    Corangamite
    LaTrobe
    Deakin
    Melbourne (Greens to Labor)

    QLD

    Moreton
    Petrie
    Fisher (from Other to Coalition)

    WA

    No change

    SA

    Hindmarsh

    Tas

    Bass
    Braddon
    Lyons

    NT

    Lingiari

    ACT

    No change

  23. [ Tony Abbott has vowed that if he loses this week’s election he will step down as Opposition Leader. ]

    Actually, he will step down as Opposition Leader whether he wins or loses.

  24. Regarding postal votes i thought there was always a telly of postal applications from political parties.

    It is only a rough guide as to how the pre-polls will go.

    I know someone that used an application from one party but didn’t vote for them.

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