Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 41
1 … 37 38 39 … 41

  3. I read that Hash. I believe you are using something irrelevant to the conversation to sink the boot into other people on the site.

    But that’s my opinion, and you are perfectly entitled to see it as a misinterpretation of your intent.

    It’s past my bedtime and it’s been a long day.

  8. PM Rudd was outstanding tonight on Q&A.

    Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 54/46 in the polls.

    Can you believe it?

    Simply amazing!

    Worth repeating 😎

  10. I’ll save Sean the trouble – multiple choice

    a) Abbott smashed Rudd in tonight’s QandA.

    b) The audience were all paid by corrupt Union Officials

    c) Labor members were threatening the audience with baseball bats so they asked “soft” questions

    d) The Labor Party paid the audience

    e) The audience was entirely Labor Party members

    I think I’ve covered all options

  17. William Bowe

    I don’t give a damn about the correctness of ESJ’s commentary, I’m just trying to communicate to you that your apparent conviction that he’s a Labor supporter of some kind is perfectly wrong.
    —-
    Point 1
    You insinuated that because ESJ had been on this page longer than I had has some relevance to this discussion, so if implying that I was in my ‘daddies nutsack’ as you put it, at what point does this have any political relevance? hmm? It doesn’t does it, because no one gives a s**t if he has been here 10 minutes or 10 years, its all about the quality of political context and the views of those reading it.

    Point 2
    I made the statement, Labor will lose, I don’t care if he votes for them, you vote for them or anyone else votes for them. His idea that the current political analysis groups and sports betting groups have no significance in the election, and that somehow his assertions that Labor are just ‘going to win’ and these are irrelevant is amusing. Therefor the comparison with him being one of those ‘Gillard supporters’ was made based on the above logic applied, which goes hand in hand with what many would call political denial.

  21. Edward StJohn

    Posted Monday, September 2, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Rudd was good – but its too late.
    —————————————————

    I live in hope that isn’t too late to assist a Labor victory on Saturday.

  26. 1772
    morpheus
    [Kevin spinning more shit AGAIN on how the NBN will keep elderly patients at home because all they need is broadband to check their observation :confused: NFI ]

    You’re right, you are confused, and you have NFI.

  27. With his comments tonight as Prime Minister PMKR may have saved lives by boosting the self esteem of marginalised and lonely gay people struggling with their sexuality.

    I think it is worth recognising that.

  29. [ PM Rudd was outstanding tonight on Q&A.

    Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 54/46 in the polls.

    Can you believe it?

    Simply amazing!

    Worth repeating ]

  32. [LNP out to $1.25 / ALP in to 4.00]

    LOL.

    But srsly: its interesting to look at the bookies odds on ALP getting 51-60 seats,or 61-70. They’re much the same @ 2.10/2.20.

    Market convinced of an ALP loss, but not convinced of a drubbing.

  33. [Is there any legal reason the major parties can’t cooperate and reform the system to ban preference harvesting, and then Abbott can go to his DD? Electoral system can be changed by legislation, can’t it?]

    Most certainly, notwithstanding the High Court’s tendency to activism in this field. The major parties have of course been pig-headedly resistant to the need for such reform, but perhaps Arthur Sinodinos being beaten by some no-name yokel would finally focus the Coalition’s mind. My theory as to why they like the existing system so much is that it allowed them to freeze out One Nation. It’s rather like oligopolists colluding to keep out new competitors.

  35. [William Bowe
    Posted Monday, September 2, 2013 at 10:57 pm | PERMALINK
    Thank you Fran, though I did in fact get the result of the 1996 election wrong.]

    What is 4 seats between friends?

  36. guytaur:

    I think it speaks volumes for the Qanda audience types that his response to that religious fundie drew the loudest applause.

  38. liyana

    I read that Hash. I believe you are using something irrelevant to the conversation to sink the boot into other people on the site.

    But that’s my opinion, and you are perfectly entitled to see it as a misinterpretation of your intent.
    ——

    Just as you are entitled to take it out of context. The comparison was clear, the relevance was referencing political material to suit ones self (that should have been clear given they were all based on political analysis). However feel free to twist it as you wish. 🙂

  42. [With his comments tonight as Prime Minister PMKR may have saved lives by boosting the self esteem of marginalised and lonely gay people struggling with their sexuality.

    I think it is worth recognising that.]

    Yeah: right thing to do. And he sounded deeply convincing. I really dont care what someone’s ‘motivation’ is if they’re doing the right thing.

    There are better things in life to get cynical about.

  43. Arthur should be a MP anyway. Perhaps we can get Sophie to resign next week and let Arthur have Indi. I hope he doesn’t mind an interstate move.

  48. [but perhaps Arthur Sinodinos being beaten by some no-name yokel would finally focus the Coalition’s mind]

    Let’s hope so. Reform is long overdue. When its got so farcical that even Antony Green loses his nut, its time to move on it.

  50. Hi William but this time the system may actually work to get Hanson elected in NSW depending on how strong the donkey vote is – such an event may precipitate a change.

    Btw what is the average senate donkey vote? I have heard its up to 2% in the House but I have never seen a figure for the senate.

Comments Page 38 of 41
1 … 37 38 39 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *