Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Are people just no longer willing to make sacrifices for children any more. Will people who are unwilling to change their lifestyle for a child be good parents?

  2. liyana

    I don’t want to live in a country that is ruled by people like that.
    ————
    As we don’t want to live in a country that its government points the finger to every incompetent spending spree it has had, then blame a GFC that happened in 2007, promise over 500 times including only 10 days before announcing that it would not return to surplus, that it would. What government does not have to foresight to see that it would not make a budget surplus 10 days out?

    We also want to live in a country where people like Captain Emad cant manipulate our poor borders within 3 months to gain 4 tax payer funded houses for himself and his rich family while being classed as a ‘genuine refugee’ by a government who has continually blames others for its inability to gain control of our borders.

    Yep there are just a few of my favorite things. 😀

  3. Thats right. Im an independent thinker.
    I still give the dumbest idea award to “boat buy-back”
    But I cant vote – I’m not on any australian roll. I still vote in my home country elections so I feel to vote in two countries is immoral.

  4. “@MrPinkCarpet: Single mothers being treated like animals and millionaire my s get $75k for having a baby. Welcome to Liberal Australia #qanda”

  5. Rudd’s running on his management of the GFC (therefore illegitimate), Tony Abbott is running on having been at the table during Howard’s term… but that’s fine.

  6. Angry about the Liberal trolls on this site
    _____________________________________
    Reading the malice and garbage from Sean Tisme and Mick 77 and a host of Menzies Hose devotees is an unpleasant experience on PB….some lie,others mislead and all gloat…
    what a pack of bastards they are

  7. Edward StJohn

    Hashy boy – I’d admire the faith of some on here even if it is very Jonestown.
    ————-

    Come Saturday you’ll be a believer Eddy boy, but don’t take my word for it, Ill guarantee Ill be back Saturday to have a good laugh with you…. or is that at you?

    Let me guess, you were one of those ‘Gillard has the 2013 election in the bag’ people?

  8. TLBD: I am in the me faction, I look for no succour from a political party.

    That is the truth that will set you free – dont look for the boss man or some political hack to save you. As Barry Jones once wrote: Sleepers awake!

  9. confessions@1744

    Here’s where you get trapped having done the AAA economy good answer. You can’t talk about Abbott’s PPL being unaffordable.

    Of course you can, unless you believe in magic pudding economics.

  10. Several on the poll bludger champion George Bludger and his vile nasty images… Nastiness personified. Bemused you are the biggest hypocrite.

  11. Kevin spinning more shit AGAIN on how the NBN will keep elderly patients at home because all they need is broadband to check their observation :confused: NFI

  12. guytaur @1753

    You mean its as likely and timely as the very fast train. He gave the only answer that he could considering the total FU his party engaged in this.
    He COULD have done something about it before the election. But he know that words are perfect for the DRONES.

  13. Edward StJohn@1766

    TLBD: I am in the me faction, I look for no succour from a political party.

    That is the truth that will set you free – dont look for the boss man or some political hack to save you. As Barry Jones once wrote: Sleepers awake!

    That would be a unicorn answer, then?

  14. People who are experts, such as rating agencies, rate Australia’s economy as AAA. I trust their judgement more than an anonymous poster on a website.

  15. Edward StJohn

    Lol Hash Convicts – you couldnt be more wrong.
    ———-

    Really? So either you are saying that every sports bet and political analysis is incorrect and that Edward StJohn is the new Tom Waterhouse of election calls, or you are saying that you never bet on Gillard to win… the later I can understand, there are even Labor supporters who weren’t stupid enough to bet on Gillard.

  16. deblonay@1762

    Angry about the Liberal trolls on this site
    _____________________________________
    Reading the malice and garbage from Sean Tisme and Mick 77 and a host of Menzies Hose devotees is an unpleasant experience on PB….some lie,others mislead and all gloat…
    what a pack of bastards they are

    I can handle them as they clearly identify as opponents of the ALP.

    What fills me with disgust is the ‘fifth column’ of Liberal supporters here who masquerade as ALP supporters, or even members, while constantly attacking the PM and the Govt.

  17. I can see why Abbott wouldn’t go on QandA. If he was challenged by Tony Jones and the audience in the way Kevin is being tonight, he’d collapse in a heap.

  18. New2This@1771

    Several on the poll bludger champion George Bludger and his vile nasty images… Nastiness personified. Bemused you are the biggest hypocrite.

    Coming from you, I take that as a compliment.

    I am sure George Bludger would be similarly chuffed by your recognition. 👿

  19. liyana

    People who are experts, such as rating agencies, rate Australia’s economy as AAA. I trust their judgement more than an anonymous poster on a website.
    ——
    Sorry I gotta stop and laugh at the logic here, so the AAA rating agency holds credibility because they are ‘experts’ but when it comes to the ‘experts’ in political polling analysis and the experts in sports bets, well because it doesn’t favor Labor then they are simply not credible, of course only when Labor are polling badly that is…

    I realise you are not insinuating that in that particular comment, however I’m just saying that there are many Labor supporters here that have.

  20. William,

    Would be interesting to post the first-comment dates of the lot of us.

    Hard to sort out the pup-sockets, I suppose.

  21. liyana (1730): “Almost every LNP supporter I read on here is negative, nasty, and thinking of the election in terms of a team sport. This is just evidence of the attitude of an incoming LNP government.

    I don’t want to live in a country that is ruled by people like that”

    Then I assume you must currently be overseas because that’s exactly what the last six years has been. You hate those who treat politics as a sport… Why do you think Labor changed leaders? TWICE. Then there’s the three-step “No Carbon Tax”, “Carbon Tax”, “Terminate the Carbon Tax” electoral ball pass.

    Pokie reform goes from being a commitment, to unimportant, after a deal is done and Slipper becomes Speaker.

    And if you want negative and nasty… Look no further then our Prime Minister, who undermined the former Prime Minister; after he was dumped to improve the polls – all in the name of the game.

  22. [Almost every LNP supporter I read on here is negative, nasty, and thinking of the election in terms of a team sport. This is just evidence of the attitude of an incoming LNP government.]

    To be quite honest, a lot of supporters from both sides seem to have that attitude and neither have the moral high ground here.

  23. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 4m
    . @ClubBusted Swinging voters still waiting for Rudd to state forcefully how seriously he believes in balancing the books. imhfo.]

    This is why pointing out the reckless profligacy of coalition policies is a better response.

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