Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  5. [Evidently we have already taken over the Presidency. We’ve only got 28 days before we hand it on to Azerbaijan.]

    Yeah, it’s just a rotating thing. Still, it’s fun to be in the chair.

  7. guytaur:

    Of course people are voting against the govt. The public will only tolerate so much disunity before they decide their time is up.

  11. Tick Tock, time counts away as we get to say cya to Labor. Unfortunatley for the Labor/Greens supporters, we will be waving good bye to this era of s*** government come Saturday. But until then you can keep whinging, complaining about the type of government you will receive under Liberal, I will be looking forward to having a great laugh at your expense come September 7. 😀

  12. Interesting fact: the first president of the UNSC was Norman Makin – one time speaker of the House of Representatives. Other Australian presidents include Sir Lawrence MacIntyre, Ronald Walker, John Hood and Richard Woolcott.

    The only one who made any difference was MacIntyre who was president during the Yom Kipper War.

  20. Edward StJohn

    You sir are a vulgarian Hash Convicts.
    ————
    Awww… is the reality setting in yet? Or are you just handing out complements early? 🙂 Don’t worry Ed, come Saturday Labor will be out of its misery, as will the people who have suffered under them. 😀

  21. The presidency is always occupied by the permanent ambassador. President of the General Assembly is usually occupied by a foreign minister – Australia has only had one as I am sure my avatar could tell you.

  30. Strangely for the LNP blow ins here, from what I know of many of the ALP supporters on this site, many of them will not have much change in their standard of living, under the LNP. The reason most support the ALP is due to a commitment to equality, a concern for social welfare and a larger concern for the country.

    Almost every LNP supporter I read on here is negative, nasty, and thinking of the election in terms of a team sport. This is just evidence of the attitude of an incoming LNP government.

    I don’t want to live in a country that is ruled by people like that.

  31. Hmm let me guess this correctly (in this particular thread, at this given time), a trollish response is defined by how far politically left you are willing to go and agree. If you do not agree that Labor/Greens have wrecked this country, then you are politically competent and therefor deemed as a ‘non trollish’ comment, however if you believe that this era of government was absolute rubbish and are happy to say ‘dont let the door hit you on the way out’ then you have qualified for the ‘left troll award’. This award also comes standard issue with the usual ‘just ignore them’ comments. 😀

  32. I’m not watching q and a, but im guessing it was similar to a meltdown he had on the today show. Yes admitting a guilty pleasure- i watch the today show from about 7am to 7:15am.
    Rudd lost the plot, he was so angry and basically lisa let him hang himself

  42. When you show anger in a monologue- you have lost it. It was the hand signals and everything else with it. Im no tory, but that just made me shrink in horror. Rudd is a nasty little man

  43. liyana@1730

    Strangely for the LNP blow ins here, from what I know of many of the ALP supporters on this site, many of them will not have much change in their standard of living, under the LNP. The reason most support the ALP is due to a commitment to equality, a concern for social welfare and a larger concern for the country.

    Almost every LNP supporter I read on here is negative, nasty, and thinking of the election in terms of a team sport. This is just evidence of the attitude of an incoming LNP government.

    I don’t want to live in a country that is ruled by people like that.

    Well said.

  44. Here’s where you get trapped having done the AAA economy good answer. You can’t talk about Abbott’s PPL being unaffordable.

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