Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

A week out from polling day, Newspoll gives Labor the same two-party preferred vote it had at the corresponding moment of the 1996 campaign.

GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.

Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.

BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.

UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,024 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 34 of 41
1 33 34 35 41
  1. Its interesting to see everyone making poll projections one week out from the election. From ludicrous MB to the coalition supporters. Why doesn’t everyone chill out. Only 5 sleeps to go …

  2. Diogenes:

    On 7.30 tonight, in the week before Australia takes over Presidency of the UN Social Security Council, PM-in-waiting Tony Abbott said:

    “we shouldn’t get ideas above our station”

    and

    “I’ll leave it to the Americans”…to decide Australia’s response to the civil war in Syria.

    He’s going to outdo Howard in the bootlicking department.

    True story.

  3. q 2 they speak about business. what experience has him or pyne or many of front bench had? turnbull doesn’t count of course — not an example to follow

  4. Did Labor do any campaigning today? The news coverage tonight has been all Abbott and the coalition. Nothing from the govt.

  5. ESJ,

    Your words and those of your co-contributor require close understanding: a slow process.

    You used to show some semblance of engaging without falling off.

  6. what about the questioner at rooty hill who questioned gov having debt – said his business could not run with high debt – what nonsense was peddled into voters by these amateur business liberals.

  7. abbott says good saving and management is in his dna – what experience does he have of such things. hockey hockey?? this is waffle

  8. meet an actual politician last night – labor marginal sydney seat – small group – well spoken quite impressive – ducked some questions. saw him later putting posters up alone in street. back to tors

  9. [Carey Moore
    Posted Monday, September 2, 2013 at 9:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Carey,

    Stallions cover mares.

    Ah.]

    Ah, just what does that mean?

    Looks like you win by virtue. Of being male.

    Oh, well done, here’s the golden award.

    You know, you really have to wonder about men, how they can’t abide women challenging or questioning them, on anything.

    Yet, apparently one of the prime movers of evolution was face-to-face sex. Equality. Rather than being ridden.

  10. Good soundbite media will not use there from PMKR

    [I am trying to be as direct as I can]

    when interrupted

    Then asked a question by confessions 😉

  11. ESJ

    [When I read your inane comments I think to myself it’s a pity stupid isnt painful.]

    If it were, the Abbott would have to be a masochist to keep a smile on his face.

  12. Rudd on Q&A is a reminder of a stand out bit of undermining – when by silence he inferred Prime Minister Gillard was hostile to the ETS.

  13. Gillard was feted whenever she went on Qanda. She had a natural warmth which people in the audience responded to.

    Very different with this Qanda.

Comments Page 34 of 41
1 33 34 35 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *