GhostWhoVotes tweets the latest weekly campaign Newspoll has the Coalition leading 54-46, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote, which was up three last week, is this week down four to 33%, with the Coalition down one to 46% and the Greens up one to 10%. It follows that “others”, which was down three in last week’s poll, is this week up four. Tony Abbott has hit the lead as preferred prime minister, Rudd’s 54-40 lead last week turning into a 43-41 deficit. Rudd has also hit a new low on his net personal ratings, his approval down four to 32% and disapproval up six to 58%. Tony Abbott is down one to 41% and up two to 51%. The sample size on the poll is the normal size, in this case 1116.
Morgan has also reported its weekly multi-mode poll, this one from a sample of 3746 respondents contacted by face-to-face, online and SMS surveying, which has the Labor primary vote at 34% (down half a point), the Coalition down two to 43% and the Greens unchanged at 11%. This pans out to 52-48 on two-party preferred according to the Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated preferences figure (down from 53-47 last week), and 52.5-47.5 on the more usually favoured previous election preferences method (down from 54-46). It’s interesting to observe that Morgan concurs with Newspoll in finding a spike in the “others” vote, up 2.5% to 12%. Morgan particularly spruiks a result of 4% for the Palmer United Party nationally and 7.5% in Queensland, suggesting Clive Palmer’s intensive television advertising might be achieving results.
BludgerTrack has been updated with both sets of results, including the state breakdowns from Morgan, causing the two-party preferred to shift 0.7% in favour of the Coalition, and the Coalition to gain seats on the seat projection in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, while losing one in South Australia.
UPDATE: Finally, Essential Research jumps on board, breaking with its normal form to publish weekly results from throughout the campaign rather than its fortnightly rolling averages. The latest week’s sample has the Coalition leading 53-47, out from 51-49 a week ago (the published 50-50 being down to a stronger result for Labor the previous week), with primary votes on 44% for the Coalition (up one), 35% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).
Joe Blow Carr is going instead of Rudd night!
[Rudd got down to $3.00.]
Well it’s comforting to know Rudd almost won the imaginary election that happened over a month ago but, in this one, he’s facing a clobbering. I believe the cheapest ALP win is something like $12.50 now.
Others at 13… ah… ha
@centre
10 percent
Time is running out for that Greens crash. Tick, tock.
Poppycock you say? Galaxy 10 percent, Newspoll 10 percent, Morgan 12 percent.
On the poll more generally, quite a jump in the “others” column, coinciding with Clive Palmer’s advertising blitz. Interesting!
Mod, i dont think bandt can win.
I think lib voters will put lab ahead.
You’ e missed bendigo too.
If Labor loses new leader will be Anthony Albanese. A leader who has the ability to do the hard yards required for party reform and who is still quite popular.
Mod Lib
I basically agree with your sections expect in the case of
Kingsford Smith, McEwen, Hindmarsh, Franklin, Lyons
In the NSW landslide state poll no state seats fell to the Liberals in Kingsford-Smith although it is clearly in play for the Liberals
McEwen looks at risk, from talking to people in the seat there has been a huge amount of mail although Tone has visisted the seat several times
Hindmarsh looks like the only SA seat that might change
And the two tassie seats of Franklin, Lyons look like they may swing hard but just stay.
If the Liberals have a good last week i would be tempted to had these seats to the LNP potential gains
[Any betting agencies running odds on whether Rudd ‘zips’ off to the G20? I reckon its about an even money bet at the moment.]
Then he’d hit Gillard’s 43% or less I reckon if he did. He gets free trips forever anyway on the public purse and this way he won’t have to take Abbott with him. It’d be a dream for Abbott to be introduced to everyone there as Oz’s new PM while everyone ignores the ex.
[If 64 is the KPI number then anything less than that, surely?]
No, I think if he gets 64+ (but doesn’t win) he saved the furniture and has commendations for that. If it’s only a few seats short of that, we take the attitude that the leadership change didn’t really make that much difference (and you can infer what you want from it) but if it gets below a certain point, then we can start thinking Rudd may have made things worse.
Of course, it’s all speculative and by no means an exact science but it’s interesting to ask.
I meant there hasn’t been a huge amount of mail
Media questions will start to change to:
1. “Mr Rudd, given that Labor has recognised that the Carbon Tax should be around $5/tonne will you in Opposition support the LNP policy which makes it $0/tonne or your own which will see it at $38/tonne?”
Media questions will start to change to:
“Mr Rudd, given that Labor has recognised that the Carbon Tax should be around $5/tonne will you in Opposition support the LNP policy which makes it $0/tonne or your own which will see it at $38/tonne?”
Fess and DavidWH
Absolutely Gillard may have lost but she would have fought the election on the government’s record and kept most of the senior ministry. To be honest I have no idea what Rudd fought this campaign on and I don’t think he does either.
Guytaur
Don’t worry about the party moving to the left or right.
Only one real thing must be learnt from the last three years?
U N I T Y
Is Bendigo in play?
Newspoll has actually lnp loss of one primary point.
[To be honest I have no idea what Rudd fought this campaign on and I don’t think he does either.]
On Rudd!
Guytaur – Albanese would be OK, acceptable to most wings of the party and someone Rudd could hand over to willingly, a heavyweight and an ethnic Italian-Irish to boot, night
Mod Lib@115
There was a JWS with Labor barely in front. Hadn’t really rated a mention til then.
Bendigo is well and truly in play. Popular member retiring and some polling had a 54-46 lead to lnp. Ive got ballarat at 50-50 atm. McEwen is also in play
I’d be cautious of a 60/40 Others preference split if a lot of Labor’s 4% went to them and we may end up with preferences splitting closer to what Morgan is indicating. This result may be more like 53/47.
Carey M
The fact is that Rudd did improve Labor’s chances at the time, validating the decision to change leader.
Centre
Unity will come through party reform and the choice of a good leader.
Appeal to the electorate will come from learning from mistakes made. Yes first is unity.
Second is sticking to principles and not chasing LNP rightwing policies.
Of course Essential may be right and its not over at all.
Albo – yeah, real PM material! Cripes and people here laugh at Abbott.
[Bob Carr @bobjcarr 1h
Arabic, Vietnamese, Chinese community leaders concerned at high informal votes in 2010. Urging voters to number every square on Reps ballots]
Greens and others are a total of +15 now.
Seems alot of protest votes.
Abbott disapproval is up as well.
[If Labor loses new leader will be Anthony Albanese. A leader who has the ability to do the hard yards required for party reform and who is still quite popular.]
I pretty much was thinking that too. A steady pair of hands to stabilise the party. Then, when the party is solid again, if he doesn’t seem like he has what it takes to win an election, a more electable leader can take the helm.
The first priority of the ALP will be dusting itself off and getting back on its feet.
And yes, I like that you mentioned reforms because I sincerely hope the ALP don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater and actually still pursue reforms that make the party more accessible and democratic. Some ideas floated have been bad, some have been quite good and some have been good in spirit but there’s a few problems with the current propositions – either way, an open and lively discussion is important. I actually rate this a higher priority than trying to make the Abbott Government terminal as quickly as possible.
How many times must I say that I am voting informal in the Reps. Boothby.
I will make my reasons clear to the HTV persons at the booth.
Even Kevin could not mistake my intention.
Which is FU and PO.
There has been one poll showing it too be, its a 9% percent margin with the sitting MP retiring so there is no personal vote factor and Bendigo historically is a marginal so while its a 9% margin if there is a shock next Saturday i suspect this might be it.
Of course it might not move one iota and i will be left looking like someone that called New Endland an ALP gain
Mick77 He would steady the ship, and people said the same , about Beazley but he beat Howard on 2PP in ’98. Jason Clare is the next ALP PM though in my view
Simon B and Mick77- It’s just that two Labor MPs were today asked if Rudd was going to the G20 and neither ruled it out. If Rudd knows he’s lost he won’t care if it costs a few more seats – not if he gets the chance to sit in teh ‘big chair’.
matt31
NO
Time is not running out.
The election will come and the Greens will poll in the 8s at best.
Wait and see 😉
[wal kolla
Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 11:23 pm | PERMALINK
Bendigo is well and truly in play. Popular member retiring and some polling had a 54-46 lead to lnp]
I have found the JWS (50.6 to ALP) Kevin mentioned but not the 46% to ALP you mentioned…..have you a link?
[The fact is that Rudd did improve Labor’s chances at the time, validating the decision to change leader.]
Gillard improved Labor’s chances after the misogyny speech in parliament.
Snapshots of points in history are irrelevant. What matters is the present.
UMR btw
Opps i meant Northern Tablelands.
Joe Blow – What is the point, Cameron, Obama, Hollande, Merkel (who is also electioneering) will just ignore him anyway, he may as well send Carr who can do the technical details
From the last thread……
[1787
Simon Baker
Carey Moore What you are missing is the emergence of an increasingly isolationist right across the West. Cameron lost his parliamentary vote because of opposition from Tory backbenchers influenced by the rise of UKIP, in the US Rand Paul is now a leading contendor for the 2016 Republican nomination and Speaker Boehner and Republicans in the House are sceptical about action to say the least. In France, Marine Le Pen is rising in the polls. Abbott’s scepticism about intervention in Syria reflects that..]
There is more to this than rightist politics….
[As Harold MacMillan is reported to have said in 1963 when handing over to Alec Douglas-Home: “You’ll be all right, old boy, as long as you don’t invade Afghanistan.”]
In 2001, GW Bush and the neo-cons asserted a unilateral right to action on the part of the US, deliberately challenging the legalistic, multilateral code that had applied before 9/11, and by which the US accepted the idea of limits on its military discretion. This followed the First Gulf War, fought by Bush Senior, which resulted in a permanently inconclusive and unsatisfactory background deployment by the US and UK in support of sanctions against Iraq.
Altogether, the US and its allies have been fighting in and around the Mid-East since 1990 – 23 years – and have remarkably little to show for it. The Middle East is no more stable, peaceful or well-disposed to the West now than it was in 1990. In lots of ways, it is much worse than, say, during the Cold War era, when the West was largely constrained by Soviet competition.
The US has been involved in Afghanistan on and off since the late 1970′s, and arguably has brought itself nothing but tragedy as a result. Meantime, it first lost and then completely failed to regain its strategic prominence in Iran, where its enemies remain in clear control.
The US and the West would be very wise to re-think their vital interests and chosen strategic methods, and to resolve not to get caught in more ethnic, tribal, territorial, religious or otherwise internecine wars – wars which they self-evidently cannot “win” and from which they must eventually withdraw.
The West has an enduring commitment to Israel and an equally durable interest in order, peace and stability in the Middle East and around the Mediterranean littoral. It should be doing as much as is necessary to protect these, and really should not venture further without absolutely compelling reasons.
This is the lesson of the last 30-odd years of failed policy, bungled diplomacy, great power hubris, military misadventure and recurring disruption.
Anyone who doubts this should think back to 1853 when, for domestic political reasons, France and Britain went to war against Russia, ostensibly to “protect” Ottoman interests in the Black Sea. Before the War concluded in 1856, it had spread at various stages to include territories and theatres on the Danube, the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, The Caucasus, The Baltic, The White Sea, The Pacific, Sardinia and Greece. This was the first really pointless military adventurism of the modern era, and showed how war will so easily run off in all directions, more or less under its own impetus. Syria is another Ottoman territory and one the West should stay right away from.
And I, for one, accept that I’ll have egg on my face if it seems that going back to Rudd might have been a bad idea because I was pushing for it, in the end, as well.
mexican
The shock may be Indi. Mirabella has the Nationals favouring the Independent against her.
It was a union one ml. Dont have any links.
Carey:
Okay, maybe the mid to high 50s then.
Guytaur
Having read Zoomsters views on Sophie and talked to people in Indi no that wouldn’t be a shock.
The real shock in Indi would be if Sophie improved her vote.
Guytaur
You are a Green.
Labor must keep as far away from your views as possible.
Labor must stay in the centre.
Economically conservative and socially progressive.
Keep away from Loon ideology at all cost.
The Abbott Govt will make itself terminal.
Albo will have time to erode them.
No idea of who the next Labor light may be.
Plibersek. Wong. But would they risk it?
Maybe, in time enough.
No men on the immediate horizon.
Some short memmories around here. ALP primary had dropped below 30 percent with Gillard as leader. The trend was down, not up. The vast majority of the electorate distrusted her enormously and this would have been reinforced at every turn by both the Coalition and the Murdoch media. What do you think we would have seen any time Gillard made any sort of an announcement? A Liberal ad saying something along the lines of: “remember these words just three years ago” and a cut to Gillard saying “there will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead”.
So honestly? I said it at the time and I still say it. Had Labor stuck with Gillard, 40 seats maximum, probably closer to 30. No seats left in Queensland. Even heavier hiding than the one coming in New South Wales. A number of seats gone in Victoria. Probably three seats gone in SA and probably two or all three gone in WA.
@guytaur you are spot on re Labor moving to the right. The sooner Labor gets that trying to outflank the Coalition on the right on issues such as asylum seekers never works, the better for them. It just plays right in to the hands of the Conservatives.
FWIW, I think there’s a possibility it could narrow to a 2007-like result (with roles reversed, of course). I am not 100% on board with the belief it’s going to just keep widening from here on in (but don’t dismiss it entirely.)
Centre
Your little rant on Greens is what is wrong with Labor.
Forget the Greens look at the issues. Party reform will make sure Labor listens to its members and not those on the right that should be in the LNP
Joe
But Rudd has to offer to take Rudd, and Abbott should say yes just to complete the Rudd comedy and steal the show even in Russia. Who is gonna be interested in the hasbeen Rudd rather than the new PM Abbott? My understanding is that he has to invite Abbott to go as well if he goes, because of caretaker conventions. But heck, if he squibs on that, even better – another coupla percent down for the cheat.
I only have Sophie just holding Indi, if her vote falls to 40 or lower and Cathy McGowen comes second with a strong vote then i wouldn’t be surprised of Sophie loses.