GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
Sean Tisme @ 701
,blockquote> The Boat Buyback is what I like to call Labor Baiting.
Dunno. At least it gives the ALP’ers on PB something to laugh about because frankly, between resignation, despair, delusion and outright denial by some they don’t otherwise have much to laugh about.
So, did the the make up girl give Scoot the secret Labor Boat BuyBack Plan and he thought he would gazump Labor?
Very clever.
there is so many fish running sea water trout
on the Derwent the fisherman are out,
may be tony can sell us boat
no we make our own
from Huon pine tony could afford that
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:46 pm | Permalink
How wRONgment.
80 Illegals in 2007 when Howard was last in charge.
At last count we have had 26,000 under Labor in the last 12 months.
Labor are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had and business conditions are fantastic under Labor Governments for people smugglers and stimulating the Indonesian black market economy.
The people smugglers will be very sad when Rudd the Dudd and his Labor gutless wonders are kicked out because their multi-million dollar empire they have built under this incompetent Labor government will finally be shut down.
————————————————–
and you still cant explain the 600 missing from your maths calculations regarding asylum seekers on Nauru when it was not a signatory to the UN Convention and was part of the Pacific Solution
@Gauss/751
You all had a whinge when Gillard did Cash for Clunkers, but now it’s apparently aok for the Coalition Supporters for the same but with Endless Indonesia boats.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/08/28/1061663880424.html
so I see sean thinks is a bait
WELL re boats
COULD BE SO
so we forget tony is steeling our super
for his PPL
sorry want for get that one
Oh boy, Shop the Boats has induced a form of mild hysteria over my way. Only calming down now. Wooh!
Thank you, LNP. Best larf of the campaign.
Compact Crank
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:48 pm | Permalink
Well the one positive thing about the ALP FBT Policy for the car industry is that with a smaller industry it means less industry assistance expenditure – Well Done Bowen and Rudd.
—————————————————–
Amazing, when the change is about making people fill out log books instead just being able to rort money from the taxpayer
Seems the Liberals are all in favour of ripping off taxpayers
seems the smart educated people vote labor
Is the Buy Back The Boats plan a cunningly disguised scheme of government assistance to our local fishing industry? Or perhaps a boost to cattle exports? I suppose if the worst comes to the worst the Indonesians will be forced to eat the refugees, an outcome sure to receive Morrison’s enthusiastic support.
Scoot is trying to deprive these poor asylum seekers:
Labor supporters comfortably won this week
[I suppose if the worst comes to the worst the Indonesians will be forced to eat the refugees, an outcome sure to receive Morrison’s enthusiastic support.]
A modest proposal…
WITH ALL THIS
DONT FOR GET
THE
MOST IMPORANT ADD ON THE PAGE PLEASE
THE NBN
please see links and pass on
Boerwar,
It’ll be a case of “I thought that went very well, don’t you?”
http://www.iwantmynbn.com.au/the_facts
Fibre to the premises
With Labor’s NBN, homes and businesses are directly connected to the NBN with super-fast optical fibre for free..
2. The Coalition’s Fraudband: Fibre to the node
Tony Abbott’s fraudband alternative is connected to a box on the nature strip somewhere down the road from your house. The fraudband is then connected to your house with last century’s copper wire.
If Tony Abbott wins on 7 September, you could be charged thousands of dollars to get a fibre connection to your home.
Fibre v Copper
It’s possible for optical fibre to go really fast with downloads of 1000mbps, while the speed of copper depends on its quality (some wire out there is over 70 years old), how far the box is from your home, and sometimes it even depends on whether it’s raining!
That’s why Tony Abbott can only guarantee 25mbps on the copper fraudband – that’s 40 time slower than what’s possible over Labor’s NBN.
How much will it cost to get the NBN connected?
•ALP’s NBN: The NBN connection to your home is free – NBN Co doesn’t charge anything for a standard installation.
•Coalition’s fraudband: Depending on how far you live from the box where the fraudband is connected, you might need to pay thousands of dollars to get the faster, more reliable optical fibre connected to your home.
——————————————————————————–
Help it happen
I want my NBN
——————————————————————————–
Share with friends
I want my NBN
This how weak and untrustworthy the Liberals are, they can’t even admit let alone abide by a bi-partisan agreement. Bunch of two faced double dealers.
1 December 2008
Government welcomes a bipartisan report on immigration detention The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the first report of the inquiry into immigration detention by the Joint Standing Committee on Migration.
Senator Evans said he was pleased that the Committee, which includes senior Liberal MPs and the Shadow Immigration Minister Sharman Stone, has endorsed the Rudd Government’s abolition of John Howard’s inhumane approach to immigration detention.”
Sharman Stone on the ABC:
LEIGH SALES: Does that mean – sorry to interrupt, but I just want to pick up on that point. Does that mean then that we need to see the reinstatement of the TPVs, and the Pacific Solution?
SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.
“So back in 2008 the Coalition fully supported Labor’s move to dismantle the Pacific Solution, Why ? Because PM John Howard had decided to spend $400 million upgrading the Christmas Island detention centre to a facility that would accommodate 800 asylum seekers. Why would he do that if the boats had stopped coming?
Obviously John Howard was thinking “down the track”, he knew that the Pacific Solution was unsustainable, he realised that it was only a matter of time before the Pacific Solution would have to be scrapped because it was a very expensive and extremely inhumane policy to stop the boats.”
Labor went to the 2007 election with the dismantling of the Pacific Solution as a key policy. Imagine the howls of outrage from all the Righties if they’d “broken yet another election promise”. And it wasn’t just the Left that cheered, it was the majority of Australians. The opposition supported it, News Limited editorials at the time supported it.
poroti
[but virtually nobody had ever heard of before.]
Macquarie Island was the place and the specific boat was the one that bolted west after seeing a patrol a/c taking photos of it. One of our boats went in pursuit.
It only gave up when two SA Navy boats blocked it a very long way west.
The boat registration was Uruguayan from memory.
The fish got sold at a very good price.
The fishing boat was a good bit of real oceangoing kit. I went on board to have a look at it.
The owners wanted it back and claimed it was all the crews fault and litigation about the ‘fine’ levied ensued. I resigned from my job around then and don’t know the outcome.
It wouldn’t have been trashed – millions of dollars in value.
William – just changed email address. Cheers.
Oh dear Gauss once again citing betting odds. Yet Gauss not betting his fortune on these guaranteed returns. Why not I ask. Is there doubt even in Gauss’ mind on the merit off these odds. the only conclusion there must be.
[Denise Allen @denniallen 21h
Channel 9 Melbourne… Makeup artist story makes news but not Saul Estlakes confirmation of LNP $30B black hole. Unbelievable.]
lefty e
That is what happened to me earlier, i was keeled over and could not stop. My daughter was getting a tad worried
CTar1,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viarsa_1
re 771
I find this entirely believable. Finance is so booooring.
Boerwar
How can Scoot backflip on a policy that was 12 months in the making!!!!
hah, Victoria, I know. Its been comedy gold today.
[How can Scoot backflip on a policy that was 12 months in the making!!!!]
I thought it was 4 years in the making.
[National Times @NationalTimesAU 9m
Scott Morrison defends Lib buyback scheme, saying boats will be targeted for purchase to disrupt smugglers. http://bit.ly/19B2VmR #auspol]
Suddenly I am reminded of the Viet Cong, who could smell American’s aftershave so they always knew they were coming.
I’d back a smuggler or two against Morrison’s smarts.
lizzie
Surely targetting the actual smugglers make more sense, than the boats.
Oh my, i am becoming delirious again……
Caroline Wilson:
‘Several of the more involved and influential player managers now have the ASADA report. One agent confirmed to Fairfax Media on Thursday that a class action could be launched against the club – and leading that charge were the families of those 34 players reported to have been injected with the unknown and unprescribed substance bought in Mexico.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/tim-watsons-conflicted-role-in-essendon-saga-20130822-2sdij.html#ixzz2cljcrXmU‘
[Stephen Mayne
Here is the official ASA press release expressing disappointment with the soft penalty for Gunns chair John Gay: http://australianshareholders.com.au/asa_site/images/pdf_archive/presentations/asa%20disappointed%20with%20john%20gay%20penalty%2023%20august%202013.pdf … ]
BW/Ducky – Viarsa 1 the boat. Thank you.
Lizzie:
[At least when Labor came up with such gems as “cash for clunkers” (which is a cousin of Hunt’s Direct Action, BTW), they didn’t pretend they had thought about it for very long.]
Well that was a stupid policy but something similar had been proposed in the US first — even with a similar title IIRC.
One might also add that while there are a limted supply of clunkers, there wouldn’t be a limited supply of semi-seaworthy fishing boats, especially if there’s a market for them.
It does seem as if the LNP, for all of its professions of faith in the market place and keeping the government out of business, is actually rather optimistic about the ability of governments to shape markets. It really claims that direct action can work and be cost effective. It really asserts that paying truckloads of money to companies to pay upper class women having babies will improve the supply of women of calibre.
Equally, it denies that levying big companies will depress the economy or create sovereign risk and capital flight, and that SFRs (and others) will lose substantial amounts of money from their franking dividends and unlike the so called carbon “tax” it won’t be a GBNT.
Really, these people are utter clowns. If you’re a neoliberal, you really are far better off voting ALP because they are far more consistent in mapping neoliberal ideas to public policy, even if one includes asylum seekers in that.
CTar1 + TLBD
Thanks. I’d forgotten about the big deal over the court case. Although the publicity around it was probably why I remembered the boat.
I just got robopolled by Lonergan!
LNP: Press 1
ALP: Press 2
GRN: Press 3
Receive cash transfer of $1,5m from Barrister Mr. Johnson Nkomo, Nigerian Development Bank: Press 4
Boerwar
The Essendon saga is truly a fiasco.
So if I were in charge of ALP advertising, here’s the ad I’d be running from this evening until blackout:
Woman speaking to camera: ‘Let me get this straight, Mr. Abbott. Instead of spending my tax dollars on improving hospitals or schools, you want to give them to Indonesian fishermen to buy their old leaky boats? You’ve had six years in opposition, is this really the best you could come up with?
Sorry Mr. Abbott, you’re just not ready to be PM.’
Hope you pressed #4 lefty 🙂
lefty e
Did they ask if you had a boat to sell?
https://theconversation.com/coalition-health-policy-is-all-barbs-and-no-risks-17364
[The Coalition’s Policy to Support Australia’s Health System is a cautious document, despite shadow health minister Peter Dutton’s promise of a “cracker of a health policy”.
Tony Abbott set the scene at the policy launch by announcing that the Liberal Party would no longer accept tobacco company donations – despite his scornful rejection of Labor’s criticisms. The Coalition’s health policy is marked by the same small-target strategy: ducking for cover in the face of attack.
Health policy has been a minefield for the Coalition in past elections, and this is policy definitely has a strong “play it safe” approach.]
And Dutton continues his personal attacks in the policy.
[The document is full of curious asides; it points out the failings of government policies without spelling out alternatives.
Some are fairly obvious targets. Labor’s former health minister, Nicola Roxon, is quoted at length attacking Kevin Rudd’s “cynicism” and “ludicrous way” of governing.
We are reminded of the over-promising and under-delivery of the Rudd years: the slow roll-out of GP superclinics, the failure to meet elective surgery waiting time targets, and the continuing “blame game” between Canberra and the states over health funding.]
Jim Gillespie, Syd Uni
Yoyoma Bones
i am liking it…..
Further my 729, regarding betting number crunching by statisticians Kaighin McColl and Leng Lee (based on Sports bet) who comes up with 58 Labor seats.
Jackman now has Labor on 55.4 seats.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/2013/bettingMarketExtras/individualSeats/graphs/plotMarginal.pdf
I know Dr. Kevin Bonham has a few seats more but momentum is heavily with the LNP.
Centrebet now has LNP in to $1.08 & Labor out to $8 which translates to a probability of Labor winning of 11.9%. This is Gillard territory when she was replaced back end June.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2010/bettingMarkets/analysis/historyAlternate.pdf
Gauss
The Indonesians will be voting for the coalition. They have just announced a boom for their economy
[Did they ask if you had a boat to sell?]
ALL YOUR BOATS ARE BELONG TO US!
http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/
Further to that, I think there’s a serious question in many people’s minds about whether Abbott and the libs really are ready to be back in government. This latest boats policy, and the problems with the PPL, show that they’re really not ready yet. Would be smart for the ALP to push this angle and crystallize many peoples’ concerns.
One good thing out of the Coalition announcement on buying boats is that as off today the People Trafficers will be having to pay a premium for their boats.
Not sure how long that’ll last.
Compact Crank
Surely you are taking the piss with that comment.
Those people smugglers better keep their grubby hands off our reef.
auss
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 4:01 pm | PERMALINK
Further my 729, regarding betting number crunching by statisticians Kaighin McColl and Leng Lee (based on Sports bet) who comes up with 58 Labor seats.
Jackman now has Labor on 55.4 seats.
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/2013/bettingMarketExtras/individualSeats/graphs/plotM
————–
2010 election
coalition after katter’s decision $1.10
labor $ 6.00
betting markets are not a good guide