GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
The Boat Buyback is what I like to call Labor Baiting.
Everyone knows Labor has caused this boatpeople disaster… we are reminded of it every day with every new boat arrival and every new boat sinking/rescue. They also remember Labor attacked the Pacific Solution for 10 years but have suddenly had a road to demascus moment.
So the Coalition occasionally have to put out an idea out there that makes sense but gets the Labor party and it’s hack… half of whom love the boat arrivals… to come out of the woodwork and attack the Coalition ideas.
It works so well because we know Labor caused the mess… so when they attack the Coalition the Labor Party look divided, weak and gutless when it comes to stopping the boats to the average punter out there watching. Labor could simply go “yeah might be an idea, cheers”… but no.. they jump on their moral outrage soap box and reveal themselves for what they truly are. WEAK.
Loving it!
Anyone remember The Navy Lark and Leading Seaman Goldstein?
Just chucking this out here: I wonder if ALP shouldnt revise the FBT changes, to ensure they apply only to wealthier punters.
Let’s see. Time to help Hockey with his costings.
Say, 500,000 Indonesia boats @ say $2000 per boat =
$1 billion.
I reckon the Coalition will probably go for additional revenue by way of an illegal boat tax. Whoops. levy.
morpheus
pssst! – Wanta buy a cheap boat?
I see there’s a new policy: Cash for Clippers 😀 (sorry, that’s the best I could think of)
Someone (Darn?) came up with “Dollars for Dhows” earlier, which I liked.
Boat travelling from Malaysia to Indonesia upon hearing about Scoot’s boat policy:
Carey
Cash for sinkers. AS boats have to be ready to sink at a moments notice.
So, is Abbott going to turn them back before or after Scoot buys them?
I like the way the new policy encoruages boat building, and presumably, enables people smugglers to blackmail our government if they dont buy them.
The ABS released figures this week that showed car sales in Australia had grown by 3% in the last year.
Can we stop the rubbish about FBT damaging car industry, it may have hurt a section in the finance industry but that’s it.
Ford stopping its production line for an hour or so is not unusual.
Well done! 🙂
@Sean/701
This is Gillard’s moment for Cash for Clunkers, and it should be seen as much.
Natasha Griggs wants to do lots of things but does she want to Shop The Boats?
zoidlord
Not on your nilly. This has got to be the worst policy annoucement in the history of policy annoucements.
Oops nellie
If we buy the boats, will they be delivered? And do they come with Asylum Seekers onboard – or do those cost extra?
I expect this policy brain bubble to last as long as Gillard’s “Cash for Clunkers” did. IE: Not even a day after the election.
[Not on your nilly. This has got to be the worst policy annoucement in the history of policy annoucements.]
Its certainly a contender.
I think the ridicule this policy will generate might just be thing we need to shake the punteriat out of their torpor.
Gotta hand it to Scoot. He has managed to grow the smuggler industry and boat industry in Indonesia in one fell swoop
ST @701 – what – Labor caused the Taliban to take over Afghanistan an large swathes of Pakistan, invaded Iraq, caused the Ayatollahs to take power in Iran and set Sri Lankan against Sri Lankan for 30 years?
And who rejected a plan the might have stopped or greatly reduced the arrival of asylum boats two years ago to ensure that boat arrivals remained a hot topic?
“@OzEquitist: @ABCNews24 Holy crap! Abbott holds a presser: 3 male pollies speak, then Abbott answers question 4 local female candidate! #AUSvotes #AUSpol”
[What’s the small business?]
going broke the amount of time the proprietor spends on PB
Mmmm…then what does Rabbott do with all the boats?
Isn’t Natasha the one who likes long plane trips for the same reason as Boonie?
BREAKING: LNP announces Two-for-one Keel Deal. This week only.
http://www.iwantmynbn.com.au/
benefit facts,,, see the adds for the nbn.
====================================================
PLEASE PASS ON FOR FACE BOOK AND FREINDS WITH EMAILS
dam shame this place was not modern so the videos could of been shown
Dee we already covered that. We are going to create a GBR on the west coast. It will be a tourist haven for WA.
Oh dear.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/betting_odds_point_to_labor_savaging_Kiwe78QtVBvTScld1PGwpN
lefty e
[BREAKING: LNP announces Two-for-one Keel Deal. This week only.]
Excellent!
Good panel on the Drum tonight despite Rowan Dean being on.
“@SteveCannane: Tonight on #thedrum on @ABCNews24 @rhysam @JacktheInsider @rowandean 6pm EST repeat at 10.”
Melissa Clarke is on. Will she say “boats”?
A legal chappie has expressed the opinion that Essendon players could simply void their contracts with Essendon because the latter has failed in its contractual obligations to provide a safe workplace. The implication, apart from any damage to the player list, is that Essendon would gain nothing by way of compensation in trades.
DavidWH
I haven’t been around!
Gauss
That is based on robo polling. We will more accurate picture with Nielsen at 6
PB has found its funny bones.
Another chappie reckons in his opinion that there is an increased cancer risk associated with one of the substances that may or may not have been injected into players.
lefty e
*laughs, disturbs JR*
1. Labor’s NBN: Fibre to the premises
With Labor’s NBN, homes and businesses are directly connected to the NBN with super-fast optical fibre for free..
2. The Coalition’s Fraudband: Fibre to the node
Tony Abbott’s fraudband alternative is connected to a box on the nature strip somewhere down the road from your house. The fraudband is then connected to your house with last century’s copper wire.
If Tony Abbott wins on 7 September, you could be charged thousands of dollars to get a fibre connection to your home.
Fibre v Copper
It’s possible for optical fibre to go really fast with downloads of 1000mbps, while the speed of copper depends on its quality (some wire out there is over 70 years old), how far the box is from your home, and sometimes it even depends on whether it’s raining!
That’s why Tony Abbott can only guarantee 25mbps on the copper fraudband – that’s 40 time slower than what’s possible over Labor’s NBN.
How much will it cost to get the NBN connected?
•ALP’s NBN: The NBN connection to your home is free – NBN Co doesn’t charge anything for a standard installation.
•Coalition’s fraudband: Depending on how far you live from the box where the fraudband is connected, you might need to pay thousands of dollars to get the faster, more reliable optical fibre connected to your home.
——————————————————————————–
Help it happen
I want my NBN
——————————————————————————–
Share with friends
I want my NBN
http://www.iwantmynbn.com.au/the_facts
No worries Dee. Just get on board for the Western Great Barrier Reef supplied by Indonesia and paid for by Australia.
🙂
“@MikeCarlton01: Coalition’s plans get madder. Why not just pay the top 20 people smugglers $1m a year each to stay out of business ?”
CTar1
Re your time of SOSS. Was that in the mid “noughties” ? I remember a couple of Sth American (?) boats dragged in to Fremantle sometime back then after a very long chase. I think they were fishing near some remote place that was Australian territory but virtually nobody had ever heard of before.
I imagine that there might be a bit of a terse conversation between Abbott and Scoot which will end in some form of public damage control before the sun sets.
Ducky we needed a belly laugh as it’s been a bit tense lately. If Morrison does nothing else he has at least gave us an afternoon a fun and laughter.
I think they did a chase to the west for a gizillion nautical miles… mauritius?
BREAKING: DIAC renamed “Boats ‘r Us”
A friend of a friend reckons that Scoot might be interested in some craft that are going to be used for asylum seekers next month:
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=rubber+duck+image&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a&gws_rd=cr
@guytaur/742
Good question, considering they want to pay mothers for $75,000 for 6 months to have a kid, lets give 1 million to people smugglers….
What was that, Budget Emergency?
Nah, slip of the tongue.
so what was the boat plan
and oh says the make up girl has apologised