Before I dive into today’s glut of electorate-level polling and the picture of unmitigated disaster it paints for Labor, mention should be made of today’s declaration of candidates and determination of ballot paper ordering. I’ve finished labouring through the chore of uploading the candidate lists to my election guide, in the course of which I was unavoidably struck by one salient fact: there are far too many candidates at this election. The total comes in at 1188 for the House of Representatives and 529 for the Senate.
The former number is solidly clear of a previous record of 1109 in 1998, amounting to nearly half an extra candidate per electorate, and well clear of the 849 in 2010, a relatively low number thought to have resulted from the election being called three months ahead of time. The Senate number is still more unprecedented, blowing the lid off the previous record of 367 candidates. Remarkably – suspiciously, even – this comes despite a doubling of nomination deposits to $1000 for House of Representatives candidates and $2000 for Senate candidates.
Some might consider a greater array of candidates a boon for democracy, but in my view that’s entirely negated by the obstacle posed to the act of voting, at least under our present system. This is starkly illustrated by the metre-long Senate ballot papers that voters in the larger states will be required to grapple with on September 7, and the magnifying glasses that will be supplied in polling booths to assist in reading the small print crammed on to them. That will no doubt have all but the tiniest handful of voters opting for the above the line option, exacerbating one of the least attractive features of our system – the mass transfer of votes as dictated by preference deals.
As for the lower house, an analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission indicates that each extra candidate causes a 0.2% increase in the informal vote. If partisan advantage is what matters to you, it’s likely that this makes a large number of candidates disadvantageous to Labor. Labor’s surprise defeat in Greenway at the 2004 election may well have been influenced by an 11.8% informal vote, which was in turn influenced by what I believe to have been a then record (at a general election at least) 14 candidates. This time around there are 12 candidates in Corangamite, Deakin and Mallee, 13 in Bendigo and McMillan, and 16 in Melbourne. Notably, all these electorates are in Victoria, which seems to have the largest number of organised micro-parties – perhaps having been inspired by the example of Family First and the Democratic Labour Party in winning Senate seats over the course of the past decade.
So, to these opinion polls. There are 14 automated phone polls in all from three different agencies, with swings ranging from 0% to 15% and averaging 8%. This is enormously out of kilter with the national polling that was coming through before we hit a dry spell at the start of the week, which suggested a swing of more like 2%. So one might variously hypothesise that there has been a huge shift to the Coalition this week; that the polls have targeted areas where Labor is doing particularly badly; that there may have been something about these polls to bias them towards the Coalition, through some combination of their being automated, mid-week and electorate-level polls; that the national polls have been heavily biased to Labor and the automated polls have shown them up. The latter at least I do not think terribly likely, the truth probably involving some combination of the first three.
We have also had more conventional phone poll results from Newspoll, conducted from Monday to Thursday from samples of 504 each, which oddly target Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor’s seats of Lyne and New England. These respectively have the Nationals ahead 59-41 and 66-34, which if anything suggest swings to Labor. The primary votes from Lyne are 26% for Labor, 51% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens, while from New England it’s 24%, 53% and 5%.
Running through the automated polls:
• Lonergan and JWS Research have both targeted Forde and Lindsay, with very similar results in each case. In Forde, the JWS Research poll of 568 respondents has Liberal National Party member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. The Lonergan poll, for which The Guardian offers great detail, covered 1160 respondents and showed van Manen’s lead at 56% to 34% and the Greens at just 4%, compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, JWS Research gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. The Lonergan poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely.
• Longergan’s Lindsay poll, conducted on Tuesday night from a sample of 1038, has Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size (UPDATE: It transpires that this is because Lonergan has, unusually, done the right thing – calculate an effective margin of error that accounts for the fact that the sample is weighted, and that cohorts within it have been extrapolated from sub-par samples). The JWS Research result has the primary votes at 57% for Liberal and 35% for Labor, with two-party preferred at 60.7-39.3.
• ReachTEL has four polls with samples of around 600 apiece, which have the Liberals leading 65-35 in Bennelong (a swing of about 12%) and 53-47 in McMahon (11%) and 52-48 in Kingsford Smith (7%), with Labor hanging on by 52-48 in Blaxland (10%).
• The other Financial Review/JWS Research results show the Coalition ahead in Brisbane (54.1-45.9 from primaries of 50% LNP, 36% Labor), Macquarie (55.1-44.9, 51% Liberal, 35% Labor), Corangamite (53.3-46.7, 48% Liberal, 36% Labor), Aston (63.4-36.6, Liberal 59%, Labor 29%), and Banks (52.8-47.2, Liberal 50%, Labor 43%). The one ray of sunlight for Labor is their 51-49 lead in Greenway, from primaries of 46% for Liberal and 44% for Labor. A full graphic of the JWS Research results is available from GhostWhoVotes, including some diverting results on personal approval. Bert van Manen in Forde and Alan Tudge in Aston appear to rate as very popular local members, while David Bradbury in Lindsay and Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite do not. And Fiona Scott in Lindsay, fresh from the publicity bestowed upon her by Tony Abbott, is easily the highest rating of the challengers.
[I don’t pretend to have any knowledge of the ALP machinations, so don’t tend to offer opinions on structural matters.]
But I am sure you’d agree it’s not just a case of changing leaders and all the problems go away…
@William/97
I wonder if Galaxy will be more accurate this time…
Mick77 – Rudd is the ONLY thing stopping an Abbott landslide. If the ALP does lose he will have prevented total meltdown in all likelihood. Then were Abbott to get in he will be responsible for the deep austerity cuts proposed, and the whole narrative will have changed from ALP turmoil with Gillard out of power to the Coalition’s record in office.
Simon
ok we’ll leave it at that since my pride is already riding on a “bet” with leftye that ALP gets 60 or less seats and now i’m off to bed. ‘Nite
Unless those leaders made some real changes …
[But I am sure you’d agree it’s not just a case of changing leaders and all the problems go away…]
Yes, I certainly would agree with that.
And I’m crashing too.
Just read the last three days of PB, took a long time to login and drop out probs. The national debt appears to be the most important thought in the mind of voters according to the ABC compass poll by a country mile. AS Seekers next. The sample size apparently was quite substantial. I got this from listening to newsradio. Dont know if they have a bias however this sort of info tells me that Rudd Labor govt are history and probably by a country mile. This election campaign must be one of the most ordinary ever so far. I guess thats what happens when you spend what you cant afford all at once and will continue paying for it forever.
Simon 103
I think you’re extrapolating too far. Abbott will come in, will probably be a reasonably good PM and then we’ll see. However I think that rudd in the elections will do no better than Gillard would have. Again ‘nite
[AS Seekers next.]
Although, on the Compass, isn’t the main active interest more from the compassionate end of the spectrum? At least that’s what I recall last time I checked results…
Just heard the ALP candidate in Dobell:
“I will be a strong candidate for Labor in Dobell”
(repeated when the same question was asked of her about the chaos in ALP).
Someone should tell her to reply “I will be a strong candidate for the people of Dobell” not “I will be a strong candidate for the people of the Labor party”!
Good night all
Mick77 – We will see, but I am only going on scientific polling showing Rudd outperforming Gillard, not personal views
Carey @ 109 this represents both sides, the breakdown of opinion is not out on AS however the debt and deficit opinion basically says NOT HAPPY JAN!
Interesting perspective: Is Rudd as good as Keating?
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/rudds-running-out-of-time-and-needs-to-do-a-keating-20130816-2s28p.html
@left e/114
I actually agree with both Articles from Michael Gordon and Latika Bourke.
But how do we normal people tell Rudd this lol.
Oh, well.
The im patient has been put to bed.
Rather querulous, I am sad to say.
So really, who gives a fat rats about the election.
Apart from the salient obvious.
Who will look after him when I have had enough?
I assume this is satirical.
ELECTION 2013: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott speaks to media on the bus on the way to Ekka
Election 2013: Opposition Leader Tony Abbott speaks to media on the bus on the way to Ekka Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Feet up on the lounge in his hotel suite, sky-blue tie loosened at the neck, Tony Abbott is relaxing after another gruelling day on the campaign trail. I’ve been given a rare half-hour to chat with him, which he begins by enthusing about the Liberal candidate for the western Sydney seat of Wirraway.
”Great tits and a fantastic arse,” he says.
If I’ve said anything wrong I can trust you blokes at News Corp to clean it up for me or leave it out.
”Oh dad !”sighs one of his ever-present daughters.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dont-quote-me-says-tony-but-maaate-8230-20130816-2s1zy.html#ixzz2c94GYQw0
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_13.html
Poll roundup – another update:
* seat polls
* dire seat polls vs benign 2PP
* wheels falling off ALP campaign?
* and the seat tally I’d predict if I had to lock it in right now (61 Labor).
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/tasmanian-federal-candidates-announced.html
Tas Federal Candidates Announced And Ballot Draws
* general Tas federal candidate announcement stuff
* donkey voting
* Senate party proliferation problem
* some candidate colour including alleged illegal turtles
“All your votes are belong to us!” said Abbott, removing his helmet. “Listen, I know loads of chicks mate, its sex appeal central in here. I dont fancy yours much though”.
Abbott went on to say that every voter would know his costings “in good time”, at least ten minutes before his acceptance speech.
‘And Fiona Scott in Lindsay, fresh from the publicity bestowed upon her by Tony Abbott, is easily the highest rating of the challengers’.
Sad.
I am listening to Mahler’s Ninth.
There is two possible explanations as too why a scare campaign about Tone and cuts is not working in NSW.
First being that the state government appears to be traveling pretty well, sure it has made a few decisions that were poor such as cuts to tafe but it has been a fairly stable good performing government.
Second, the state ALP is a rabble.
Crikey
Hopefully there will be people to look after all of us as time requires.. We are all going to need it eventually. Unfortunately the last leaders debate showed that its not currently top of list. However posting garbage by Carlton as I read in the article is really gong to do no good.
Simon Baker @ 103
[Rudd is the ONLY thing stopping an Abbott landslide.]
Define landslide.
Rudd has already taken you to DEFCON ’04, next week you’ll be at DEFCON ’96, and in 20 days time you’ll be at DEFCON ’75 or DEFCON ’31.
‘However posting garbage by Carlton as I read in the article is really gong to do no good’.
What does that mean, Silmaj?
All is tidy.
Goodnight.
Crikey
It does no good to anyone to throw in debate that is either false or reworded on partisan lines. Using false figures reworked by every man, woman, dog cat and political insect and having the ability to put this on public media is the greatest problem of today. What it means is that the debate is now influenced by all the new options of possible deceit . The interesting thing I find now is that certain comments can be predicted due to partisan nature of who is commenting. One thing we will have in common is that I will be visiting family in the southern part of SA and look forward to getting there opinion of how SA is going.
FrankieV – Well considering Gillard was already at worse than DEFCON ’75 if not DEFCON ’31 when she was ousted, I think the ALP would gladly have taken DEFCON ’04 or even ’96 had you offered it to them earlier in the year, and this is in Rudd’s worst polling week so far
There is no doubt if Abbott wins the punters will soon see the con artist that he really is.Nothing that he does for families and workers will benefit them at all. It will just be a case of “We cant afford this so scrap it” mentality.The punters are being duped by the George W Bush of Australia.There will be no one but the rich better off in 3 years time.
GST scare, sex appealgate, Abbott’s personality, debt, ….none of it matters or is an issue.
Here is a hint to what has happened:
DISUNITY IS DEATH and the beloved party has spent 3 years in a self-indulgent personality fight instead of governing the country. The return of Rudd rather than a saving move just confirmed what a rabble they are.
It has taken the electorate until the 2nd week of the campaign to become engaged but now it is finally showing what the last 3 years has meant. The next national poll will be 54-46.the furniture has gone and so is the senate
The wannabee liberals in society will eventually see that Rudd wasnt that bad after all and then they will be saying the usual “Well I never voted for Abbott”
Simon Baker give it up. The move to Rudd just confirmed to the electorate that this lot are a rabble. You have no evidence that a Gillard result would be worse than this – the hypothetical polling that you will no doubt quote was meaningless but may well have panicked the caucus into producing the worst result in 100 years.
Let the punters have slash and burn. Dont whinge when it happens!!
A lot of companies are a rabble but they still get the job done.
The average punter will pay for the deficit, the rich will be untouched. Liberal policy since time began.Better have deep pockets soon.Welfare is finished.
John Keats knew all about the Labor Party
[A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:
Its loveliness increases; it will never
Pass into nothingness; but still will keep
A bower quiet for us, and a sleep
Full of sweet dreams, and health, and quiet breathing.]
Good to see The Australian Polling in key marginal. 😛
The swing is on!
Well, the polling to say the least appears disappointing. All I can say to the Australian public, you want him then be prepared for the consequences.
Don’t whinge to me when :-
– interest rates rise (and they will it just a matter of time – I’m in banking)
– inflation rises
– unemployment increases as the austerity of the Coalition policies takes hold
– your power bills don’t decrease even though carbon tax has been removed
– no NBN to future proof the country unless your rich and can fork out the money for the Coalitions fraudband
You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time – it looks like you can fool all the people all the time when it comes to Abbott.
Be afraid be very afraid.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The ugly thought of an Abbott government, I fear, is now solidifying into a probable harsh reality. How can any front bench that boasts the likes of Dutton, Mirabella, Bishop J, Bishop B, Hartsyker, Joyce, Morrison, Truss, Cormann, Pyne, Fiorivanti-Wells, Brandis, Abetz, Hockey, Robb, etc earn the respect of the Australian electorate?
Rant over.
Michael Gordon with a good report on the status of the campaigns. He is wating for Rudd to “do a Keating”.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/rudds-running-out-of-time-and-needs-to-do-a-keating-20130816-2s28p.html
Of course Abbott will keep the tobacco tax. It will be interesting to see what he does to dismantle the structural deficit left to us by Howard.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/australia-news-blog/2013/aug/15/tony-abbott-tobacco-tax-rise
Mark Kenny tells us about Hockey’s costing methodology.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/trio-of-experts-tally-liberal-pledges-20130816-2s2qq.html
Mike Carlon with a classic piss take of Abbott and a disturbing piece on the ministership of Pru Goward.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dont-quote-me-says-tony-but-maaate-8230-20130816-2s1zy.html
Essendon preparing for the worst?
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/bomber-sos-targets-sheedy-20130816-2s2cv.html
This speaks for itself.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-evokes-john-howard-in-slamming-doors-on-asylum-seekers-20130815-2rzzy.html
Alan Moir has his say on the AS race to the bottom.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
MUST SEE! David Ppoe has been in fire recently. This one is hits hard.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s wardrobe.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
confessions at 85
It’s “be honest and up front” versus “hide it all and hit ’em after”!
Rudd and the ALP have made the usual mistake – they try to be honest about how they’ll pay for new measures. It’s blown up in their face with voters worried about “what else” given the last 3 years “false” predictions.
On the other hand Abbott and the LNP just deliver goodies (which they know they can’t pay for) but it’s not worrying the average voter. With the MSM on side and creating a dreadful picture of the ALP the nongs are totally “off” the ALP. The swing only needs 1 in 20 but may reach much higher with such one sided bias.
Only a “game changer” can fix it for the ALP now (and there is still time).
I didnt get polled in new england
From BK’s links. Read past the satire about Abbott and you get this serious piece.
[Figures concealed by DOCS but eventually prised out of it under freedom-of-information laws revealed that of the 61,308 children and young people reported at risk between July 1, 2011, and June 30, 2012, only 16,409 were seen by a caseworker and checked.
Through all this, the minister responsible, Pru Goward, has hedged and dodged and ducked and fudged. Either deliberately or through ignorance – either is a disgrace – she has consistently exaggerated the number of caseworkers on the job. And when caught out, she has passed the buck, blaming her department, a report she had not been given, anything to get out from under.
But in a way, it’s the fault of all of us. We are each of us to blame. There are no votes in abused or forgotten children. Out of sight, out of mind, we let them suffer and die.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/dont-quote-me-says-tony-but-maaate-8230-20130816-2s1zy.html#ixzz2cAMFyHD7
Mod Lib
Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 at 11:22 pm | PERMALINK
Whodathunk, 100 seats within reach for Abbott.
———
mitt romney style , in Australia by murdoch media
coalition going ot be dissapointned like they were in1993
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 12:19 am | PERMALINK
28% swing to Barnaby in New England seems reasonable.
———
only in the pro coalition area
rummel
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 5:48 am | PERMALINK
The swing is on!
————
same as it was for mit romney
And from the Land of the Free –
The Kansas judiciary shows its class.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/16/judge-rules-bomb-threat-letter-is-free-speech-in-anti-abortion-case/
That’s Repug confidence for you!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/16/gop-votes-to-ban-nbc-cnn-from-primary-debates/
Some great catoons on voter suppression laws.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/16/cartoons-of-the-day-voter-supression-laws/
This makes me wonder about what Abbott will do.
http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/cuccinelli-introduces-plan-divert-public-fu
Rudd took many months to build his very successful campaign against Howard. Perhaps he doesn’t have enough energy this time around.
[Either way, Labor’s big problem of the first fortnight is that Rudd has done nothing to either give potential supporters reason to mobilise or detractors cause to reconsider. Having opened his campaign with the promise of a ”new way”, the returned PM has done precious little to define what this means, let alone make it a vote winner.
”What happened to Rudd, the great campaigner?” says one insider.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/rudds-running-out-of-time-and-needs-to-do-a-keating-20130816-2s28p.html#ixzz2cANDf5L5
Honestly if the coalition supporters are geting excited over polling of 500 people
then the coalition is not going to win the election
the so called polling experts are going to carry on if sample of 500-600 is a good indication
If the election turns out opposite like the coalition supporters
These experts need to explain who they got it so wrong