Before I dive into today’s glut of electorate-level polling and the picture of unmitigated disaster it paints for Labor, mention should be made of today’s declaration of candidates and determination of ballot paper ordering. I’ve finished labouring through the chore of uploading the candidate lists to my election guide, in the course of which I was unavoidably struck by one salient fact: there are far too many candidates at this election. The total comes in at 1188 for the House of Representatives and 529 for the Senate.
The former number is solidly clear of a previous record of 1109 in 1998, amounting to nearly half an extra candidate per electorate, and well clear of the 849 in 2010, a relatively low number thought to have resulted from the election being called three months ahead of time. The Senate number is still more unprecedented, blowing the lid off the previous record of 367 candidates. Remarkably – suspiciously, even – this comes despite a doubling of nomination deposits to $1000 for House of Representatives candidates and $2000 for Senate candidates.
Some might consider a greater array of candidates a boon for democracy, but in my view that’s entirely negated by the obstacle posed to the act of voting, at least under our present system. This is starkly illustrated by the metre-long Senate ballot papers that voters in the larger states will be required to grapple with on September 7, and the magnifying glasses that will be supplied in polling booths to assist in reading the small print crammed on to them. That will no doubt have all but the tiniest handful of voters opting for the above the line option, exacerbating one of the least attractive features of our system – the mass transfer of votes as dictated by preference deals.
As for the lower house, an analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission indicates that each extra candidate causes a 0.2% increase in the informal vote. If partisan advantage is what matters to you, it’s likely that this makes a large number of candidates disadvantageous to Labor. Labor’s surprise defeat in Greenway at the 2004 election may well have been influenced by an 11.8% informal vote, which was in turn influenced by what I believe to have been a then record (at a general election at least) 14 candidates. This time around there are 12 candidates in Corangamite, Deakin and Mallee, 13 in Bendigo and McMillan, and 16 in Melbourne. Notably, all these electorates are in Victoria, which seems to have the largest number of organised micro-parties – perhaps having been inspired by the example of Family First and the Democratic Labour Party in winning Senate seats over the course of the past decade.
So, to these opinion polls. There are 14 automated phone polls in all from three different agencies, with swings ranging from 0% to 15% and averaging 8%. This is enormously out of kilter with the national polling that was coming through before we hit a dry spell at the start of the week, which suggested a swing of more like 2%. So one might variously hypothesise that there has been a huge shift to the Coalition this week; that the polls have targeted areas where Labor is doing particularly badly; that there may have been something about these polls to bias them towards the Coalition, through some combination of their being automated, mid-week and electorate-level polls; that the national polls have been heavily biased to Labor and the automated polls have shown them up. The latter at least I do not think terribly likely, the truth probably involving some combination of the first three.
We have also had more conventional phone poll results from Newspoll, conducted from Monday to Thursday from samples of 504 each, which oddly target Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor’s seats of Lyne and New England. These respectively have the Nationals ahead 59-41 and 66-34, which if anything suggest swings to Labor. The primary votes from Lyne are 26% for Labor, 51% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens, while from New England it’s 24%, 53% and 5%.
Running through the automated polls:
• Lonergan and JWS Research have both targeted Forde and Lindsay, with very similar results in each case. In Forde, the JWS Research poll of 568 respondents has Liberal National Party member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. The Lonergan poll, for which The Guardian offers great detail, covered 1160 respondents and showed van Manen’s lead at 56% to 34% and the Greens at just 4%, compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, JWS Research gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. The Lonergan poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely.
• Longergan’s Lindsay poll, conducted on Tuesday night from a sample of 1038, has Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size (UPDATE: It transpires that this is because Lonergan has, unusually, done the right thing – calculate an effective margin of error that accounts for the fact that the sample is weighted, and that cohorts within it have been extrapolated from sub-par samples). The JWS Research result has the primary votes at 57% for Liberal and 35% for Labor, with two-party preferred at 60.7-39.3.
• ReachTEL has four polls with samples of around 600 apiece, which have the Liberals leading 65-35 in Bennelong (a swing of about 12%) and 53-47 in McMahon (11%) and 52-48 in Kingsford Smith (7%), with Labor hanging on by 52-48 in Blaxland (10%).
• The other Financial Review/JWS Research results show the Coalition ahead in Brisbane (54.1-45.9 from primaries of 50% LNP, 36% Labor), Macquarie (55.1-44.9, 51% Liberal, 35% Labor), Corangamite (53.3-46.7, 48% Liberal, 36% Labor), Aston (63.4-36.6, Liberal 59%, Labor 29%), and Banks (52.8-47.2, Liberal 50%, Labor 43%). The one ray of sunlight for Labor is their 51-49 lead in Greenway, from primaries of 46% for Liberal and 44% for Labor. A full graphic of the JWS Research results is available from GhostWhoVotes, including some diverting results on personal approval. Bert van Manen in Forde and Alan Tudge in Aston appear to rate as very popular local members, while David Bradbury in Lindsay and Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite do not. And Fiona Scott in Lindsay, fresh from the publicity bestowed upon her by Tony Abbott, is easily the highest rating of the challengers.
helenk
The fact you fail to get it does nothing to change the fact that Abbott was sexist and has been marked as such worldwide. See CNN, Washington Post, BBC, The Torygraph and others.
It’s hard to believe that the same people who thought Abbott was a tosser for so long now think he’s the bees knees. If he wins I think they’ll revert back to tosser pretty quickly.
Gary
Yes too late for all of us though, if that becomes the case.
Never too late guytaur. There are still going to be future elections.
[quote]Yes guytaur, most people are not sexist but they just don’t happen to believe that saying that someone is a good sort, or has sex appeal, is sexist. [/quote]
People are far too precious today, and this sort of whiney behaviour makes it harder for the people who ARE the target of legitimate sexism to be taken seriously.
People will disagree as the whether or not Abbott’s remark was exist, and it will based on political allegiance.
The debate should be about the comment being appropriate for a person who expects to be the Prime Minister of Australia.
Is it a ‘good thing’ that this is how the world view Tony Abbott?
How poorly does it reflect on all of us that he is the “best’ we can do as a leader.
Putting aside political views the comment was an embarrassment to Australia and I do not want such an undisciplined person leading this country
River
You too do not get it. Except I think you do. Anything to defend Abbptt.
oops Abbott I mean
“@AustralianLabor: Remarkable Hockey admission @Sunriseon7. Directly asked to guarantee no cuts to health & education. Flatly Refused #AusPol #AusVotes”
they claim to be the superior economic managers yet they have no confidence that their numbers add up, direct action whatever that means is going to cost a fortune and abbott is spending like there is no tomorrow. what do expect from someone who has no interest in economics.
AA
[I do not want such an undisciplined person leading this country]
But presumably you want Obama leading USA and free world after his “best looking AG” comment, or you would have preferred the more “disciplined” Romney?
[quote]You too do not get it. Except I think you do. Anything to defend Abbptt.[/quote]
No I get it. Labor supporters have been praying for Abbott to slip up for years, and now they’re so desperate they’ve descended to taking any statement, no matter how innocent, and try to paint it to be sexist.
Accurate depiction of the situation?
@River/1362
And I suppose you been doing to Labor Supporters for the last 3 + years?
Right?
Sure Sure, It’s a Mirror.
River
Wrong. Try it yourself in the real world see how you go. I expect you would lose your job and/or face a lawsuit
The remark could be sexist but regardless of that we should expect more from someone who is the alternative PM. It was an inappropriate remark. However it seems to have worked and basically anything seems to OK these days if it is politically favourable.
And for furks sake.
Watching the footy, some idiot remarked that he had not realised that NMFC had included black in their colours.
What? said I.
Panned back and the idiot remarked upon piccaninny (OED) barracking (and I even hesitate to use that word, lest some take it to mean that I may be even slightly in favour of health benefits for the USofA poorest, blackest and whiteist, god forbid, or even pro Obama)
So, the flukhead was remarking upon a small child in the crowd.
That is all he could see.
@Guytaur
Lol, good work. My mother thinks people should vote for Jason Clare because he’s hot. Too bad I’ll now have to tell her she’s sexist and that she’s facing a lawsuit.
But I doubt there’s any point talking to someone who shuns reality for ‘Laborland’.
Abbott;
Because we have a budget ’emergency’ we are going to forgo revenue and reduce company tax this will cost around $5 billion
Because we have a budget ’emergency’ we are going to repeal the Carbon Price and MRRT and forgo that revenue.
Now this all sounds real good, but someone has to pay. So we will stop paying the superannuation co-contribution and stop the School Kids payment.
Now we know that the tax cuts we will implement will only benefit the wealthy and our mining company supporters, but we all know that as good Australians you will gladly take these reductions in benefits for the future good of their profits.
River
As I pointed out in response to AA @ 1361, there’s a lot of hypocrisy around, on both sides, but this sexist beat-up is uber-leftist nonsense. Rudd can go blind drunk to strip clubs, reel off rants to women and in women’s company laced with f****, be racist towards Chinese ratf***, but they have no probs with that.
Get real lefties – how would you have reacted to an Abbott comment like that about the Chinese?
Davidwh.
He is an alternative serial liar, theiving, puppet.
River
Nice try at deflection. See the reports. I mean the international ones. Abbott even made it into the French Press with his comment.
@Mick77/1369
Regardless of the hypocrisy, Rudd was right that it is not professional behavior, and even if Rudd has own mistakes, he also did say that we are suppose to be role model.
Now you don’t hear that from Tony abbott.
Cry me. River.
Mick
Don’t make up crap to excuse the things you let pass.
[quote]As I pointed out in response to AA @ 1361, there’s a lot of hypocrisy around, on both sides, but this sexist beat-up is uber-leftist nonsense. Rudd can go blind drunk to strip clubs, reel off rants to women and in women’s company laced with f****, be racist towards Chinese ratf***, but they have no probs with that.[/quote]
Probably one of the reasons why the public turned on him when he tried to go after Abbott.
@Guytaur
You have nothing.
Crikey he’s not my preferred PM but I think three years of Labor self indulgement means we may have to live with Abbott as our PM.
Mick
President Obama apologised because he realised how his comment could be misconstrued.
No such class from Abbott
Cry me. River.
Again then.
@River/1376
Your post has nothing, except “nothing”.
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
River
As I pointed out in response to AA @ 1361, there’s a lot of hypocrisy around, on both sides, but this sexist beat-up is uber-leftist nonsense. Rudd can go blind drunk to strip clubs, reel off rants to women and in women’s company laced with f****, be racist towards Chinese ratf***, but they have no probs with that.
Get real lefties – how would you have reacted to an Abbott comment like that about the Chinese?
—————————————————–
I haven’t read one post where any Labor supporter has defended Rudd’s behaviour.
Plenty of Liberals defending and justifying Abbotts comment
That says more about the Liberals sensitivity and being all defensive than about the anyone else
River
😆 Thanks for admitting you have no defence to CNN, BBC and other international outlets
[quote]Regardless of the hypocrisy, Rudd was right that it is not professional behavior, and even if Rudd has own mistakes, he also did say that we are suppose to be role model.[/quote]
All Rudd is doing by saying this is painting himself as a hypocrite. The public is having none of this. Holier than thou POS Rudd is.
Davidwh.
Seem to recall that you intended to vote Labor.
@Guytaur
Still no points I see. Let us know when you decide to join the rest of us in the real world.
[Remarkable Hockey admission @Sunriseon7. Directly asked to guarantee no cuts to health & education. Flatly Refused]
Is that on film? Turn it into an ad.
I for one am over Abbott gaffes.
Suggest you let them speak for themselves, and get on policy message.
Crikey I don’t think my vote is going to count anymore however I haven’t changed my mind.
I look at the bright side of an Abbott win, he’ll destroy a few of the myths, such as the Libs are great financial managers and they can stop the boats.
What mind is that?
has abbott ever used a spreadsheet i mean he said he was not a tech head, what exactly does that mean. can he turn on a PC where do his limitations kick in?
Galaxy
48 ALP 52 LNP 2PP
36 ALP 45 LNP primary
http://twitter.com/sundayteleed/status/368713662195699714/photo/1
River
I hope you suffer this behaviour from your boss so you understand how damaging your defence is of this behaviour.
Those international media reports happened for a reason no matter how you try and dismiss the reality.
48/52 is still retrievable, although I’m beginning to think unlikely.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 (-1) L/NP 52 (+1) #ausvotes
Spreadsheet.
Joke. As if.
Though, come to think of it. Travel expenses come to mind.
Oh! I have people who do that for me.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 32s
#Galaxy Poll Primary Votes: ALP 36 (-2) L/NP 45 (0) #ausvotes
[Gary
Posted Saturday, August 17, 2013 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
I look at the bright side of an Abbott win, he’ll destroy a few of the myths, such as the Libs are great financial managers and they can stop the boats.]
He’s on a hiding to nothing with you guys, really. If the economy doesn’t do well and boats keep coming “myths” will have been destroyed. If the economy picks up and boats slow down or stop, you’ll try to give the credit to Rudd/Gillard “setting things up for him” just like you tried to chalk Howard’s success down to Hawke and Keating.
Sprocket.
The Tele?
Whats Labor ever done for me…the minimum wage… oh yea the 40 hours week there was that.. Medicare .. oh yea…………….