Before I dive into today’s glut of electorate-level polling and the picture of unmitigated disaster it paints for Labor, mention should be made of today’s declaration of candidates and determination of ballot paper ordering. I’ve finished labouring through the chore of uploading the candidate lists to my election guide, in the course of which I was unavoidably struck by one salient fact: there are far too many candidates at this election. The total comes in at 1188 for the House of Representatives and 529 for the Senate.
The former number is solidly clear of a previous record of 1109 in 1998, amounting to nearly half an extra candidate per electorate, and well clear of the 849 in 2010, a relatively low number thought to have resulted from the election being called three months ahead of time. The Senate number is still more unprecedented, blowing the lid off the previous record of 367 candidates. Remarkably – suspiciously, even – this comes despite a doubling of nomination deposits to $1000 for House of Representatives candidates and $2000 for Senate candidates.
Some might consider a greater array of candidates a boon for democracy, but in my view that’s entirely negated by the obstacle posed to the act of voting, at least under our present system. This is starkly illustrated by the metre-long Senate ballot papers that voters in the larger states will be required to grapple with on September 7, and the magnifying glasses that will be supplied in polling booths to assist in reading the small print crammed on to them. That will no doubt have all but the tiniest handful of voters opting for the above the line option, exacerbating one of the least attractive features of our system – the mass transfer of votes as dictated by preference deals.
As for the lower house, an analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission indicates that each extra candidate causes a 0.2% increase in the informal vote. If partisan advantage is what matters to you, it’s likely that this makes a large number of candidates disadvantageous to Labor. Labor’s surprise defeat in Greenway at the 2004 election may well have been influenced by an 11.8% informal vote, which was in turn influenced by what I believe to have been a then record (at a general election at least) 14 candidates. This time around there are 12 candidates in Corangamite, Deakin and Mallee, 13 in Bendigo and McMillan, and 16 in Melbourne. Notably, all these electorates are in Victoria, which seems to have the largest number of organised micro-parties – perhaps having been inspired by the example of Family First and the Democratic Labour Party in winning Senate seats over the course of the past decade.
So, to these opinion polls. There are 14 automated phone polls in all from three different agencies, with swings ranging from 0% to 15% and averaging 8%. This is enormously out of kilter with the national polling that was coming through before we hit a dry spell at the start of the week, which suggested a swing of more like 2%. So one might variously hypothesise that there has been a huge shift to the Coalition this week; that the polls have targeted areas where Labor is doing particularly badly; that there may have been something about these polls to bias them towards the Coalition, through some combination of their being automated, mid-week and electorate-level polls; that the national polls have been heavily biased to Labor and the automated polls have shown them up. The latter at least I do not think terribly likely, the truth probably involving some combination of the first three.
We have also had more conventional phone poll results from Newspoll, conducted from Monday to Thursday from samples of 504 each, which oddly target Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor’s seats of Lyne and New England. These respectively have the Nationals ahead 59-41 and 66-34, which if anything suggest swings to Labor. The primary votes from Lyne are 26% for Labor, 51% for the Coalition and 7% for the Greens, while from New England it’s 24%, 53% and 5%.
Running through the automated polls:
• Lonergan and JWS Research have both targeted Forde and Lindsay, with very similar results in each case. In Forde, the JWS Research poll of 568 respondents has Liberal National Party member Bert van Manen leading Peter Beattie 54% to 33% on the primary vote and 60-40 on two-party preferred, for a swing of 8.4%. The Lonergan poll, for which The Guardian offers great detail, covered 1160 respondents and showed van Manen’s lead at 56% to 34% and the Greens at just 4%, compared with 12% at the 2010 election. While no two-party preferred figure is provided, it would obviously be very similar to JWS Research’s 60-40. As low as van Manen’s national profile may be, JWS Research gives him a 49% approval rating against 19% disapproval, with Peter Beattie on 35% and 51%. Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating is minus 18% against minus 1% for Tony Abbott. The Lonergan poll has 40% saying Peter Beattie has made them less likely to vote Labor against on 22% for more likely.
• Longergan’s Lindsay poll, conducted on Tuesday night from a sample of 1038, has Liberal candidate Fiona Scott’s primary vote at no less than 60%, up 17% on 2010, with Labor member David Bradbury on 32%, down 13%. The Guardian quotes the pollster saying a question about how respondents voted in 2010 aligned with the actual result – I will assume this took into account the tendency of poll respondents to over-report having voted for the winner. I am a little more puzzled by the claimed margin of error of 3.7%, which should be more like 3% given the published sample size (UPDATE: It transpires that this is because Lonergan has, unusually, done the right thing – calculate an effective margin of error that accounts for the fact that the sample is weighted, and that cohorts within it have been extrapolated from sub-par samples). The JWS Research result has the primary votes at 57% for Liberal and 35% for Labor, with two-party preferred at 60.7-39.3.
• ReachTEL has four polls with samples of around 600 apiece, which have the Liberals leading 65-35 in Bennelong (a swing of about 12%) and 53-47 in McMahon (11%) and 52-48 in Kingsford Smith (7%), with Labor hanging on by 52-48 in Blaxland (10%).
• The other Financial Review/JWS Research results show the Coalition ahead in Brisbane (54.1-45.9 from primaries of 50% LNP, 36% Labor), Macquarie (55.1-44.9, 51% Liberal, 35% Labor), Corangamite (53.3-46.7, 48% Liberal, 36% Labor), Aston (63.4-36.6, Liberal 59%, Labor 29%), and Banks (52.8-47.2, Liberal 50%, Labor 43%). The one ray of sunlight for Labor is their 51-49 lead in Greenway, from primaries of 46% for Liberal and 44% for Labor. A full graphic of the JWS Research results is available from GhostWhoVotes, including some diverting results on personal approval. Bert van Manen in Forde and Alan Tudge in Aston appear to rate as very popular local members, while David Bradbury in Lindsay and Darren Cheeseman in Corangamite do not. And Fiona Scott in Lindsay, fresh from the publicity bestowed upon her by Tony Abbott, is easily the highest rating of the challengers.
Went through Maroubra today en route to visit my Mum who is sadly back in Prince of Wales hospital after yet another fall and third operation in 14 months/
Maroubra Junction was buzzing with Labor and Libs out in force replete with caps t-shirts and balloons.
I would hate to see Labor losing to the Libs in Kingsford Smith and although I don’t hold much faith in Thistlethwaite I do hold faith in the ALP holding Kingsford Smith in spite of the dramatic change in the demographics.
CC
No need to apologise for not having your mind on what you are doing, it shows.
[The “at least 50 seats” bit I just made up … for fun!]
Wow, your life is just a non-stop thrill ride! 😛
mikehilliard @ 1145: to play devil’s advocate for a moment: the planet is eventually going to be ruined, when the sun expands to be a red giant. If a person doesn’t have children to worry about, why should he or she care if the earth becomes uninhabitable in 200 years or a billion years? In neither case will he or she be around to be troubled by it.
AussieA
The problem with people like Cranky is that they help to drag the discussion into nonsense. They have to ignore any facts so that they can pretend that it’s all hot air.
@lizzie/1155
An apt description of their argument.
[Narcissism is a mild form of psychopathy and a severe form of egotism. A lot of businessmen show symptoms of narcissism, and yes, politicians too.]
That is untrue.
Narcissism and “psychopathy”, which is now referred to as antisocial personality disorder, are examples of personality disorders.
[Malcolm Turnbull @TurnbullMalcolm 3s
Nobody shd make fun of Kevin confusing Holden w Ford & instead extend same understanding he showed Beazley when he got his Roves mixed up.]
Ouch.
MTBW
Has there been a dramatic change in demographics in the last week to explain the sudden change in this poll release?
Buddy Rojek of PUP is a worthy winner of Dio’s iDIOt of the Day Award.
This is what his post-election party promised.
[“You will have a rocking night with DJs, mingling models and possibly a mystery rock band if I can secure,” the flyer states. “My parties go off!!! Kevin ’13 party is for nerds!
“I have booked a hotel for the models. If you are lucky and behave yourself they might invite you back to party longer ;)”.]
[Ouch.]
Turnbull is talking crap as usual. Yesterday he said NBN was $5 billion over, his lies are getting larger each day.
Go vote Liberal ‘fess, we know you want to. (or try some common sense).
Has Mike Carton’s piece on Abbott been posted yet?
Don’t quote me, says Tony, but maaate …
[Has there been a dramatic change in demographics in the last week to explain the sudden change in this poll release?]
There has been the media trying to rev up momentum for Tony, which may not exist. It is pathetic in its blatant rubbish.
I think we have to face the fact that without a turnaround to make the ’93 election look tame, the ALP will be ousted on September 7th and replaced by one of the most reactionary Liberal Parties in history. The English speaking world is now effectively subject to neo-conservative rule.
What we have to remember on the left wing of politics is that even though the nation may not recognize it, or want to recognize it, that we were right about everything; and that we still are the side of politics where irrefutable facts, not widely repeated myths are the route to electoral success.
And this is because climate change is happening, this is because the ETS is lowering emissions; this is because there never was a lie about carbon pricing; this is because our debt levels are among the lowest and healthiest in the developed world; because our economy is among the strongest in the world; because well delivered economic stimulus has proved short-term and long-term benefits that almost always outweigh the accumulation of debt they often necessitate; because asylum-seekers are not bludgers; because the right to love who we love is not is not a slippery-slope; because the welfare of human-beings present and future are always more important than the sating of ideological goals; because there is still a place for compassion in today’s utilitarian world; because there is always a different way, a better way, to meet our challenges and cure our ills; and finally; because we know that our cause is just, that our motives are noble, and that transitory evils can never suppress our inextinguishable desire to make the world a better and fairer place for all its people.
So don’t dismay if things look dire for now. That’s exactly what the neo-cons want, a hopeless, apathetic bunch on the other side so that they can pursue their agendas unchallenged. We know that we have both the moral high-ground and the factual-know-how to prove to people that there is something better than what we have made already, and that that thing is not intangible, or impossible to shape for ourselves.
Another Abbott backflip. So much for LNP targets.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-signals-willingness-to-fail-meeting-emissions-targets-if-funds-fall-short-20130817-2s3eu.html
Assuming Daryl Melham goes down in Banks – the most senior member of the Federal ALP will be Swanny, after it gets down to a handful of members of the class of 98′.
It really shows how the ALP cannibalises its own – not much longevity there.
Andrew Elder believes NT was all about the seats and Katter. I would add the Adelaide announcement today.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/full-of-promise.html?m=1
@Simon Simpson/1164
oh dear, Elvis has entered the building.
Well said Simon
Lets kick Gillard out and Rudd in.
how’s that working for ya, fellas?
Simon Simpson @ 1164: even taking all that at face value, the ALP is going to have to deal with the fact that its structures need to be fixed so that bottom dwelling slugs such as those recently exposed by ICAC can’t take control of the outfit.
[Assuming Daryl Melham goes down in Banks – the most senior member of the Federal ALP will be Swanny]
KCarr will still be there, among many others.
[Nobody shd make fun of Kevin confusing Holden w Ford & instead extend same understanding he showed Beazley when he got his Roves mixed up]
Or his arse with a storage location. Oh hang on, that was Abbott.
Woof Woof political animal.
@political animal/1170
Yes and who kicked out Rudd, and put Gillard in?
Stop pissing on about this stupid pathetic issue.
pedant – you’re right, one day the world will end & we’ll all be dust. But then again your devils avocado argument beggars the question why even bother getting out of bed at all.
lefty e
Or Turnbull himself getting sucked in by Godwin Grech.
Gee these fibs are such a frickin laugh
I want the Coalition to hit triple digits in the medal tally.
It’s about time the Greens and the Labor Party were taught a lesson on the consequences of deceiving the Australian People.
Confessions – Senate doesnt count. There are no others.
[Another Abbott backflip. So much for LNP targets.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-signals-willingness-to-fail-meeting-emissions-targets-if-funds-fall-short-20130817-2s3eu.html ]
So on that basis why spend any money at all?
Diog
[“You will have a rocking night with DJs, mingling models and possibly a mystery rock band if I can secure,” the flyer states. “My parties go off!!! Kevin ’13 party is for nerds!
“I have booked a hotel for the models. If you are lucky and behave yourself they might invite you back to party longer 😉 “.]
Sounds a hoot but I’m committed to Julia Gillard’s post-election bash. Apparently they’ll need a truck to supply her the requested quantity of champers.
Turnbull’s remark is more about leadershit than the silly gaffe, hence the Beazley-Rove reference.
[There are no others.]
Is Warren Snowden retiring?
But in any case, what is your point? Do you think Labor should hang onto its relic has-beens like the Liberals do?
I mean, Phillip Ruddock? Gimme a break!
confessions
Yep but Talculm got sucked into the Godwin Grech abyss with the help of enemies within, he lost his own leadershit thereafter
Not forgetting the relic that is Brownyn Bishop
@Victoria
Sources on that?
ESJ
I live in Banks and it is tight. Melham has plenty of signs up etc and the Lib Candidate is David Coleman who worked previously with Channel Nine. There would be plenty of money being spent to back up his campaign.
At the risk of being repetitious the demographics and the boundary changes in Banks will be very hard to beat.
mikehilliard @ 1176 – Everyone will have a different answer, mine is that the world hasn’t ended yet, and isn’t likely to in my lifetime, and in fact life for many is better than it’s ever been. At a slight tangent, I can’t believe the way this country has fallen into a state of pervasive self pity, from farmers on Sunday with Macca complaining about foreign garlic, to superannuants complaining about their indexation. People who keep saying how much better things were in the past should tell us whether they want polio and TB back.
Simon Simpson
Sources on what?
[I want the Coalition to hit triple digits in the medal tally.]
be careful what you wish for. big numbers in the party room result in alot of restless souls and antics like pictures of apendages in wine glasses just ask newman.
[At a slight tangent, I can’t believe the way this country has fallen into a state of pervasive self pity, from farmers on Sunday with Macca complaining about foreign garlic, to superannuants complaining about their indexation. People who keep saying how much better things were in the past should tell us whether they want polio and TB back.]
Aust are first class wingers and should travel to India Africa or China to observe how the bulk of the population exist on this planet ie poverty for most.
Zoid—Gillard won in 2010. Rudd in 2013. . .?
I am getting a little of my own back on all the booooring Ruddista crap over the last *3 years*
If Abbott becomes PM the Libs will shatter the myth of their superior economic management and the little egotist will disappear, so not all bad. I feel for well meaning Lib voters, and the truly dumb ones like CC, who very well may lose their job in the Abbott recession. Don’t care about gloaters like ModLib who is even more boring than the Ruddistas. I mean—wanting Turnbull, why????
Having said that—polls of 600? pfffft meaningless!
Rudd just undermined and white anted and destabilised too well for too long. Julia will have a hearty laugh!
[Not forgetting the relic that is Brownyn Bishop]
And plenty others. That they haven’t refreshed having spent 2 terms in opposition is incredible.
We don’t need a repeat of QLD. Just be happy with something 76 – 86.
@political animal/1192
Rudd won the biggest swing in 2007.
Gillard won by a few votes in 2010.
We probably won’t win in 2013, because things happened between 2007 and 2013.
If your trying to get be to get me on your side of the stupid arguments, you won’t get my vote.
It is a simple as that.
Don’t be stupid.
Re the robo-polling for Forde. I was contacted. The screen on my phone said “overseas private number” but I picked up anyway – who knows, it might have been some Nigerian general who needed a safe haven for his $M’s, or perhaps someone telling me I had won a South African lottery although I hadn’t bought a ticket.
Anyway, the intro was garbled so I’ve no idea who it was. I also tried to engage in conversation only to realise the person on the other end wasn’t listening. To each question I pushed “1” as I couldn’t be bothered listening to the rest. I was asked my age but there was no reference (so far as I know) to the fact that I should have been out on a Thursday night, but that may be due to the fact that I’m over 60 anyway and my clubbing days are long gone.
I was also polled by Nielsen and Essential for, I think, their most recent polls (by real people), but as soon as I gave my age I was thanked politely and advised that that demographic had been filled and no further questions were asked.
[I was also polled by Nielsen and Essential for, I think, their most recent polls (by real people), but as soon as I gave my age I was thanked politely and advised that that demographic had been filled and no further questions were asked.]
Ok that would be the Neilsen that we were guaranteed was 50PV by Lady Miranda on Thursday afternoon. Think we can safely safe her comments are heavily laced wih bullshit.
Zoid
I am fucking furious about the damage Rudd has done, to the Party and to the country, ending with handing the PMship to the least ready, the least worthy bunch of no hopers ever before seen
So I am not voting. I will have the two consolations should Abbott win. Pity I won’t get the NBN, pity the country won’t get the NBN. Or keep the ETS, Gonski, NDIS etc etc that Costello the economic illiterate will tell Tone he can’t afford.
In 20 years time when Boomers are frail and money has to be spent on building and running hospitals and nursing homes to look after them someone might remember the NBN and the difference it could have made.
Two excellent renditions of the national anthems before the Bledisoe Cup. Makes a change from the usual musical massacres to which we are subjected.
I have a bad feeling about this. Wny the hell is rudd agreeing to anything abbott proposes.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-17/kevin-rudd-and-tony-abbott-to-face-peoples-forum/4894248