Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [ If you say “yes” no-one would believe you so please don’t bother with a convoluted PC reply because you’d be the only woman in the world who wouldn’t like it. ]

    Your posts are simply appalling, Mick. Perhaps you should try to actually meet some women before you say any more stupid things.

    Why don’t you try this: if there are any women unfortunate enough to work for you, point out to your male colleagues (in a loud voice, so that everyone can hear) how sexy they are the next time you are all in a business meeting together. Or, if you have no female employees, you could try the same thing in a sales meeting with some female customers.

    Then come back and report how that goes for you.

  2. 750

    The ALP are only trying to get rid of Bandt because they can win the seat. The ALP need the Greens in the Senate and the Greens are more likely to increase their numbers in the Senate than decrease.

  3. Mick77

    [Have you ever been referred/described to others as attractive?]

    By Hubby, I’m given to understand. I’m glad I wasn’t there.

    [Would you like to be referred to as such? Did it/Would it offend you?]

    Context is key. Certainly, I’d not like it in a professional context eg from a staff member or student or parent, or in any place where I imagined that the person was being ‘untoward’.

    I suppose if the remark were oblique — a friend says “that outfit suits you” — or similar — I’d be OK with it.

    [please don’t bother with a convoluted PC reply because you’d be the only woman in the world who wouldn’t like it.]

    Why ask the question if you won’t accept the reply? That’s bad faith.

    Your asserted insight into the sentiments of all the women in the world can’t change that.

  4. ST
    [I think both parties have come to the realisation that it’s better to be united on routing out the Greens disease from parliament than trying to deal with them.]
    I think most of the posters here are suggesting that Labor still want to play ball with the Greens. I don’t know whether Rudd would go that low, but heck it’s the ALP of 2013 so anything goes.

  5. “@senatormilne: “Young, feisty and with sex appeal” Tony Abbott describes his candidate.Mathias Cormann says,settle down “ladies”. Coalition sexism,rhymes.”

  6. Excellent. More faux outrage from tired old women who have nothing better to do than express their life’s anger in a forum with other angry old women. That would have to be the same angry old women who fall over themselves to excuse anything that spews out of the ALP. Messiah Kevin and his trashing of GIllard as a childless, ex-communist, spends years undermining her then rolls her at the last minute while wearing a blue tie. Truly astonishing that behaviour such as that is being hailed where anything else is evil, sexist and misogynist. Even more deafening was the handbag squad who crucified Messiah Kevin before the “rolling” and now grovel at his feet beholden to him for their jobs. Thumbs up for defining hypocrisy.

  7. guytaur@760

    For those unlike me who can speak French.

    “@william7424: Sexiness and suppository: Australian Conservative leader makes a fool http://t.co/bI0Kc0JkC5 #International via @LePoint #auspol #Sexappeal”

    Google translate is your ami …

    [ http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com.au&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/sex-appeal-et-suppositoire-le-leader-conservateur-australien-se-ridiculise-13-08-2013-1713688_24.php&usg=ALkJrhjZyxok5d4rURMnF_ZrDd60XMcfqA ]

  8. Yeah no, the National Party is not the same as the Greens. At least not in the Eastern states. Voters pretty much treat the Coalition as a single party and have done so for a while. Why they don’t just end the charade and declare themselves on united conservative party is beyond me.

  9. morpheus@762

    Excellent. More faux outrage from tired old women who have nothing better to do than express their life’s anger in a forum with other angry old women. That would have to be the same angry old women who fall over themselves to excuse anything that spews out of the ALP. Messiah Kevin and his trashing of GIllard as a childless, ex-communist, spends years undermining her then rolls her at the last minute while wearing a blue tie. Truly astonishing that behaviour such as that is being hailed where anything else is evil, sexist and misogynist. Even more deafening was the handbag squad who crucified Messiah Kevin before the “rolling” and now grovel at his feet beholden to him for their jobs. Thumbs up for defining hypocrisy.

    Unhingment score: 125%

  10. Abbott prefers labor to the greens. how surprising. but what loons and extremists will he preference before either of these? Family first, shooters party, CEC, Rise up Australia, KAP, DLP etc. (the latter being his true home – santa’s plan to take over the ALP failed in all states other than the groupers in NSW, so they he took over the Fibs and large sections of the media – look at abbott and his old NCC crew and where they are today. It is tempting to be a conspiracy loon when you look at conservative catholics influential in the libs and media at present – Mitchell, Shanahan, Sheridan, Sheehan, Kenny, P Kelly, Uhlman, etc. Dan Brown needs to write a airport novel about it.

    so being preferenced lower by abbott is a badge of honour really. the senate is the real risk – may end up with DLP or similar with balance of power on one tenth of the primary vote of the greens. Labor had better preference greens, but I feel they won’t and this plays into the hard right conservatives’ hands.

  11. ah, Morpheus again. May your sleep tonight and henceforward be haunted by the self knowledge which by day you more or less hold at bay. Your professed contempt for women surely includes actual contempt for yourself. You have my pity – for forgiveness however please knock on another door.

  12. Z
    You can have all of your Greens, and you can also have a few of the Nats. Hopefully Tony will be insulated from a few potential bad eggs in the Nats because of a whopping majority. Labor had to hang on to and protect Thomson and brown-nose Bandt, Wilkie, Windsor & Oakshott. Not a good look.

  13. Bemused
    [Ahhh Tecoma. Centre of the anti-McDonalds revolt.]

    Yep!

    It’s the bohemian hub of many talented writers,actors, artists and politicians so the protests come as no surprise.

  14. anyone here defending today’s comment (like robb and the shadow treasurer who has been brough forward suddenly by opposition i notice) is dumb. think again of a workplace situation where this would be tolerated. i wouldn’t – you would be dragged before a mananger most likely. think how careful one must be in addressing any woman in public life in terms that could be construed as sexual. taboos all over the place. if you think otherwise you are being dishonest or a fool. and this was in a very public location, a bug staged event, and on national television in front of a bank of cameras and mikes. and no apology. astounding

  15. For those unlike me who can speak French.

    “@william7424: Sexiness and suppository: Australian Conservative leader makes a fool http://t.co/bI0Kc0JkC5 #International via @LePoint #auspol #Sexappeal”

    Both Monsieur Suppositoire and Mademoiselle Haram made the French evening TV news (on separate nights).

  16. Marrickville Mauler @770

    I respect strong determined women who don’t prostitute their ideals and relentlessly post crap purely because it suits their faux outrage moment.

  17. are i scored. a reply from sean – he’s not a machine, but then again.

    no matey, the nightclub moment is yet to come. we await with glee

  18. Z
    LNP Qld – I know what you mean and some of those are potentially among the bad eggs but with a big enough majority it will matter less and any issues … then out the door or over to the Thomson’s naughty corner in the House.

  19. Dee@773

    Bemused

    Ahhh Tecoma. Centre of the anti-McDonalds revolt.


    Yep!

    It’s the bohemian hub of many talented writers,actors, artists and politicians so the protests come as no surprise.

    Oh… and here I was thinking it was your lingering influence. 😉

  20. Guytaur
    [See John Oliver Daily Show clip. That was before suppository sex appeal]

    Scroll back and you’ll find my praise and comments. Hilarious. Best thing you’ve ever posted I remarked.

  21. [ I respect strong determined women who don’t prostitute their ideals and relentlessly post crap purely because it suits their faux outrage moment. ]

    faux outrage?

    You patronizing git.

  22. mick

    yes maybe i dont/wont read DT – and that is the sole determination of public opinion. little wispy pyne going on about diversity in abc last night – and defending murdoch’s right. of course you must be proud also of the influence of new york demented octogenarians the good oz national you are

  23. spectator

    dont you follow, a boot is a 24/7 gaffe, worse than bush. has been so forever. the national and media tragedy in the country is that he has been tolerated. thanks goodness rudd is putting out fires

  24. mick

    i’ve sat through months of betting against rudd vs gillard like those odds. wtf are betting agencies doing tampering with politics. this blog is bad enough

  25. Mick

    The international coverage shows how bad Abbott’s comments were.

    His comments trying to do damage control have only made it worse.

    It has raised on the ABC News priority and was high on Ten. I have not seen the others.

    This is the background people hear after the Essendon saga. Damage is being done. The only question is how much.

  26. zoidlord

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    @Mick77/771

    I’m pretty sure there is a few recent bad eggs in the LNP.
    —————————————————-

    Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos, already in strife over his involvement in a company with links to embattled Labor powerbroker Eddie Obeid, last night apologised ”unreservedly” to Federal Parliament for failing to declare interests in several other companies.

    Before being elected to the Senate in 2011, Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH, which ICAC has heard is an Obeid-related company.

    In early 2012 the NSW Coalition government awarded AWH a 25-year water infrastructure deal without any tenders. Corporate records show that Mr Sinodinos was a director of AWH from November 2008 until November 2011.

    AWH made a $30,000 donation to the NSW Liberals while Mr Sinodinos was the state party treasurer

  27. [This is Tony Abbotts Scores Nightclub moment.]

    I’m willing to bet that, in 2007, if you were here you would’ve been copying and pasting outrage about the Scores nightclub and claiming it was the end of Rudd.

  28. guytaur@760

    For those unlike me who can speak French.

    “@william7424: Sexiness and suppository: Australian Conservative leader makes a fool http://t.co/bI0Kc0JkC5 #International via @LePoint #auspol #Sexappeal”

    I was going to say Sexy Stephanie got a serve as well but Scrap Cat beat me to it.

    Does a moue and leaves.

  29. Geoffrey 790
    [i’ve sat through months of betting against rudd vs gillard like those odds. wtf are betting agencies doing tampering with politics. this blog is bad enough]
    Hate to deflate you but betfair is not a betting agency, it’s a matched exchange like the Futures Exchange. If you wanna back A then there has to be a counterparty backing B and the house takes a small% it seems. Hence the implied odds for each side always add to 100%, currently 86.2 % Libs 13.2% Labs.

  30. [I’m willing to bet that, in 2007, if you were here you would’ve been copying and pasting outrage about the Scores nightclub and claiming it was the end of Rudd.]

    As admitted a few days ago, I voted for Rudd in 2007.

    At the time I thought most Australians couldn’t care and it made Rudd look like a normal bloke and if anything would have a positive effect on his vote.

    Same goes for Abbott because nobody like Political Correctness bullshit.

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