Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. The ABC news segment showing Hockey responding to the PEFO revealed a very anxious looking shadow treasurer, sweating profusely and looking pale.

    I don’t know what he’s worried about. It’s not as if there is any great pressure on the coalition to reveal their costings any time soon. Even that gormless fool Simpkin said they will release their costings “two days before the election, if not sooner”, no doubt parroting the coalition press release that turned up in his inbox.

  2. My comment at 522 demonstrates why I think Abbott’s comments will probably do any immediate harm but could be symptomatic of a bigger problem. Ignore the attempts to paint any critical analysis as confected outrage or desperation from Labor hacks.

  3. [Anyone who thinks that Abbott’s remark has not “struck a nerve” needs to look at Twitter #sexappeal]

    Twitter rallying against Abbott? No way!

  4. How’s Jamie Diaz 6 point plan going….has he learnt it yet??

    No doubt off to re-education class when he was driven away from the Lib thing today.

    I did note that they were not in an Australian made car

  5. Tomorrow’s Telegraph:

    OPPOSITION Leader Tony Abbott will today direct the Liberal Party to preference the Greens behind Labor in all seats across the country in a bid to ensure the party is wiped from the lower house of parliament.
    It will mean the Greens’ only current lower house MP, Adam Bandt, will almost certainly lose his seat of Melbourne on September 7 — in an election gift to the ALP.
    It will also guarantee that Deputy Prime Minister Anthony Albanese keeps his inner-city Sydney seat of Grayndler, which Labor holds with just a 4 per cent margin against the minor party.

  6. Good Evening

    On SBS we had a politician of real calibre appearing in contrast to Abbott.

    @kernos1: .@SenatorWong your quiet dignity on #insightsbs tonight was inspiring. Well done keeping calm

  7. Now that ‘sex appeal’ has become, according to Abbott at least, a valid criterion, for assessing a candidacy, it seems to me that we need more detail. Abbott may claim he needs more time to release his substantive policies, but surely the following questions could be answered:

    1.You say Mr Abbott, that your candidate has ‘a bit of sex appeal’. How much is “a bit”? Were you being coy and understating it so as not to embarrass your wife and children, or overstating it because you don’t think she has much?

    2. What is her most ‘sexy’ attribute?

    3. How does she compare with:

    a) other women in the electorate?
    b) other women you’ve met over the years?
    c) other parliamentarians?
    d) your wife and daughters?
    e) other members of the Coalition or the ALP?
    f) Women from other age groups?
    g) Malcolm Turnbull?

    3. What is the scoring system you use and how does it work?
    4. Would you have won in 2010 if all your candidates in marginal seats had had as much sex appeal as this candidate?
    5. What do you plan to do about the sex appeal deficit, if any, on your side of politics?
    6. Is there a case for making the unemployed or under-employed more sexy? Should there be a program, perhaps funded by a levy on big business to raise the sex appeal of the underemployed? Would this be wasted on older workers, like that group at Holden for example?
    7. How much significance should people attach to the sex appeal of candidates? Should the judges of say, Australian Idol, run the ruler over your candidates, perhaps in swim suits, so as to achieve full transparency in this matter?

  8. I think Glory was being cynical. Abbott never gets good wraps on Twitter so this is just situation normal. I think he has a worst reputation overseas than here.

  9. [Leaving his daughter wincing, Mr Abbott was later forced to explain himself.

    He said Ms Scott was a smart, hardworking woman with whom he was proud to be associated.

    “I was a bit exuberant today … but we’re all working incredibly hard to get her elected,” Mr Abbott told reporters in Brisbane on Tuesday night.]

    By talking about how she looks rather than how well she can represent constituents?

    That exuberance is a side effect of his unpredictability.

  10. [OPPOSITION Leader Tony Abbott will today direct the Liberal Party to preference the Greens behind Labor in all seats across the country in a bid to ensure the party is wiped from the lower house of parliament.
    It will mean the Greens’ only current lower house MP, Adam Bandt, will almost certainly lose his seat of Melbourne on September 7 — in an election gift to the ALP.
    It will also guarantee that Deputy Prime Minister Anthony Albanese keeps his inner-city Sydney seat of Grayndler, which Labor holds with just a 4 per cent margin against the minor party.]
    Good on him. Better Labor than Green. Now will Labor also do the right thing and preference Liberals or are Labor still in that “deal with the devil” that Gillard cooked up?

  11. Mick77

    No.

    You are accusing Labor of doing deals yet want them to do a deal with the Liberals 😆

    Labor will act in accordance with what they believe as the Coalition should.

    Putting the Greens last in the reps is in everyone’s interest.

  12. I do believe him when he says he was being exuberant and I’m sure this sort of thing comes entirely naturally to him when he’s not on guard.

  13. Clever move by Abbott.

    Distances themselves from the Greens, all but removes the chance of a hung parliament, and forces Labor to defend their relationship with the Greens.

  14. Fran 716

    Have you ever been referred/described to others as attractive? Would you like to be referred to as such? Did it/Would it offend you?

    If you say “yes” no-one would believe you so please don’t bother with a convoluted PC reply because you’d be the only woman in the world who wouldn’t like it.

  15. davidwh

    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Actually with his fireman/lifesaver image Abbott may have sex appeal to some. Don’t see it personally.
    ————————————————-

    he only does that stuff because he is community minded,

    and for the travel allowances etc

  16. @GC/729

    Except it’s aligning with Labor.

    Not sure how it’s quiet a better move by Abbott.

    Liberals > Labor > Greens.

    All the same.

    No difference.

  17. “ëxuberant ” in LOTO speak means …

    (a) intoxicated from too many (pokey subsidised at the expense of the workers, the poor, the pensioners, the helpless)shandies at Panthers
    (b) tumescent (because, well … )
    (c) just generally unable to help himself
    (d) intoxicated by the sunshine of Murdoch’s approval

  18. the amazing thing is not that it was said but there has been no apology – from noone on that grubby money bags side of the fence (whose policy is solely to accrue personal wealth) – including the numbskull representatives who stalk this site as if they dont have enough media bandwidth and opportunity in other places.

    of course ‘a boot’ never apologise – bullies dont take responsibility for actions, and everything is always a joke.

  19. Wouldn’t it be a scream if they get 74 seats each and need Katter and Wilkie to form government.

    You’d kill self larfing 😆

  20. To expand on that previous post: Liberals have nothing to lose by doing this. Take the seat of Melbourne: regardless of whether Greens or Labor hold that seat, it is a left of centre seat whose occupant will probably vote against much of the Coalition’s agenda. Labor are more likely to give support though, as they are closer ideologically. Neither would give confidence to an Abbott government, so that’s a non-issue.

    OTOH, Labor and the Greens are both voices of the left side of the central axis (I ask people to refrain from commentary of how right wing Labor is) and they share the same voter base. It makes sense that their preferences will go to each other. Also, while the ALP would prefer their own in seats to the Greens, they will still take a Green over a Liberal.

    So, despite some of the rhetoric from the NSW Right and grouchy old hacks, it’ll be in the best interest of Labor to put the Greens over the Libs (especially as the former is still polling a considerable amount nationwide)

  21. Mick – you’re missing the point a bit.

    There’s nothing wrong with saying someone is attractive, in isolation.

    But Abbott was asked what her qualities are, as in politiclly, to which he said fiesty and sex appeal.

    I think the issue itself is neither here nor there, some people are overreaching, but to suggest it in your way is missing the reason why it was an issue today.

  22. BTW Mick 77 thanks for documenting in your #730 what a disgusting grub would say. Congratulations and thanks. I feel so much less guilty now for despising you.

  23. look a boot is a coward dressed up in sleezy swimmers – i do hope rudd takes him on and dresses him down so to speak – truly, it wouldn’t be hard to repeat the gillard moment.

  24. look a boot is a coward dressed up in sleezy swimmers – i do hope rudd takes him on and dresses him down so to speak – truly, it wouldn’t be hard to repeat the gillard moment.

  25. Centre
    [No.

    You are accusing Labor of doing deals yet want them to do a deal with the Liberals 😆

    Labor will act in accordance with what they believe as the Coalition should.

    Putting the Greens last in the reps is in everyone’s interest.]
    You’ve argued for & against and then against & for, what exactly are you saying? I think you’re agreeing that Labor should preference Libs. And I’m not accusing Labor of doing deals in general, only with the devil (and we all know who they are, except Fran & Guytaur).

  26. 735

    It would be interesting. The major supermarkets and pokies owners probably would not like it.

    I hope Bandt hangs on.

    I hope there is a change in Indi and that would probably be an independent.

  27. ah a day is a long time in ….

    best day of campaign today – economics, and pure magic of a gaffe. more please today, there is enough room in your rubber mouth for the other foot. i have never felt more pleased to detest and trivialise an individual (in this country at least) as do now – o forgot, there was uncle howard. where are the satirists and comedians esp television. is there a station embargo on a boot impersonations?

  28. Despite the Greens commissioning a poll in Melbourne saying their guy is going to get 48% Primary, I’m not buying it myself and the Libs got Bandt in the job… now they are going to sack him.

    I think both parties have come to the realisation that it’s better to be united on routing out the Greens disease from parliament than trying to deal with them.

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