GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.
UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.
Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).
BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).
Morgan stayed the same by respondent preferences but +1 for Coalition by last election.
lefty
i don’t drink (but I may make a champers exception on nite of 7/9) so i remember well what is documented in earlier posts:
next Nielsen and News; no change or better for Libs vs 2% gap reduction or better for Labs.
Nice try though.
Mick77 Abbott no doubt has all number of surprises in store
Actually correction Galaxy 51/49.
Tks Kevin – got it now. So really ‘Nite, lights out.
Galaxy was 51-49. Which is actually the friendliest once Morgan is counted by last-election preferences!
Time to throw in another plug for my Field Guide to Australian Opinion Pollsters:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-field-guide-to-australian-opinion.html
also my field guide to why Bob Ellis is ridiculous:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/bob-ellis-embarrassment-to-left.html
@Mick77/152
Yes, that’s why I make no assumptions about it now.
Sheesh. I expect the Coalition to win but $6.20 in a two horse race where one of the horses doesn’t have Gillard roped to its back? I do sense that Rudd’s honeymoon has peaked and it’ll be downhill from here but…. $6.20 — sheesh.
LOL, just read in the other thread about Meguire Bob’s “pub bookie” that has Labor as favourites. Is this the sort of pub where you need some rope, a safety harness, and one of those crash helmets with a mounted flashlight to visit… You know, and you can’t touch the stalagmites because they take so long to form?
I knew he had a vivid imagination but this sounds a bit too much like making things up.
Ill take your word for it Mick. I was enjoying my reds.
Just a wee provocation: if a 5% Beattie bounce in QLD were to show up in other polls and hold, would it not open up scenarios in which the ALP could hold government with 49% 2PP?
On that note, nite all.
Seat totals betting has Labor sliding towards 65, was 67 last week. Headline rate is going nuts. Punters think it’s totally over. Historically 48s in the second week of a 5-week campaign isn’t over at all, but there’s that feeling Labor has nothing to come back with and may even go down further.
A model I did last September said 61 seats and I immediately made jokes at its expense. We’ll see. 🙂
@Kevin/161
Except that last election had the libs gaining 1.8% in the last week.
After stalling on 52/48 for 2 weeks.
5% swing to ALP in Queensland with a national 2PP of 49 might just get a hung parliament of some kind. But any Beattie bounce probably won’t last at full strength to election day.
Seems like Abbott has pledged to go back to surplus now.
So I guess we will see tomorrow (Tuesday) see how far this will go – for both Parties.
Notegate is picking up steam with the PM looking like a cheat…. No going to play out well in punter land.
predictable as ever
Like with the debate
Rudd51% – abbott 49%
the pro coalition media hacks call it draw
yet if it was abbott 51% the pr coaltion media hacks would call it a easy win for abbott
rummel
Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 6:16 am | PERMALINK
Notegate is picking up steam with the PM looking like a cheat….
——
abbott had notes also
He gave it up in the debate when he made the gafgee od telling people newsltd hack simon benson warn him of the question about the airport
Abbott
Thankyou simon and newsltd for giving me notes about this question on whether there will be a 2nd sydney airport
The pro coalition media will not allow thier man abbott to look like he is going to lose the election
Im still calling it
labor 80
Coaliiton 67
I’ll take the 9 seats in Qld. 🙂
Have a happy Monday bludgers, off to do routine mischief myself. 😆
Newsltd showed thier hand on monday, they will make sure there is nothing postive for labor
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Here’s a promise I hope the journos keep Abbott to.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-pledges-to-detail-savings-plan-well-before-polling-day-20130811-2rptf.html
This says a lot about the veracity of some aspects of social networks.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberals-deny-buying-twitter-fans-for-tony-abbott-20130811-2rpt2.html
Laura Tingle with a balanced review of the debate.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/voters_left_wondering_as_neither_xtPsvWOsjeVUBSGGtyIsAL
Essendon poised to posit that Dimitriou is compromised.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/demetriou-conflicted-20130811-2rq9o.html
The SMH fact checking gives the boost in child care places a tick.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/budgeting-for-a-million-childcare-places-20130810-2rp4t.html
David Rowe on the NPC debae.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Alan Moir is back with a ripper Popeye effort.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Cathy Wilcox on certain Australian attitudes.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
Friday’s David Pope is worth another look.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Not much positive cream to rise above six years of Labor negative soap opera.
Kevs credibility getting a whack over note cheating. Big stuff up… Who do you trust to follow the rules?
And from the Land of the Free –
The Repugs’ identity crisis.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/11/the-gop-identity-crisis/
Some cartoons on the Repugs’ town hall meetings.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/11/cartoons-of-the-day-gop-recess-townhalls-are-back/
rummel
This is from the local Bookie at the pub he had updated his odds
‘
labor $ 1.65
Coaliiton $ 2.15
He is working the same way as betting markets and pro coalition media work
no one knows where he is getting his info from
he claims the polling from nsw and QLD
People are going to give
People are going to give give newsltd/ abbott coalition a nasty surprise on september 7th
another 3 years of labor government
Looks like the polls have, hopefully reached their nadir, with Labor’s nasties (including the ciggie tax) having their full impact.
Now the question is whether Tony Abbott can seal the deal with his wavering supporters. I have great trouble believing he did that after last night’s debate. Who wants to take a jump in the dark with Tony? We’ll see.
Kevin-one-seven
What was obivous in the debate last night
Abott couldnt stop the gaffes or the newsltd and liberal party trust him to think for himself
abbott said the same things as he did in the last 3 years
Abbott praised newsltd for helping in the airport question and other questions in the debate
KEVIN – The thing Labor has to come back with in the last three weeks is incumbency. Tony still has to allay doubts among wavering voters who could shift back. Be interesting to see if he does.
That Morgan swing in Qld to ALP post Beattie offers some hope. Abbots approval numbers and PPM on the improve, a cause for concern.
Also the widespread perception that Abbott will win, despite relatively close polls, might help him.
For all those equating 50/50 with hung parliament, it depends on the seats, the government could be returned with less than 50.
Did I read that Abbott is promising both full costings and a surplus? should be interesting.
Andrew
2010 of thinking abbott will win , will be the opposite
if he couldnt win in 2010 because people dont trust him
they wont in 2013
MB it’s hard to believe that Abbott couldn’t beat Gillard but might beat Rudd, but there you have it. It’s a very bad sign that Abbott ratings are improving so much. Labor needs to attack him directly but they don’t want to seem negative. And Abbott has what has always been his strongest suit: the OM’s support.
Can’t see how Labor can win from here.
Andrew
Of course newsltd and pro coalition media are not going to say anythign negative for abbott
they think
abc 72/27 to rudd
ten 61/39to rudd
nine 59/41 to rudd
lol channel 7 62/38 to abbott
is a draw – yet it would be the opposite if those numbers favour abbott
that tells the pro coalition media like abbott , is depending on gullible people
Of course the ground that the ALP has to make up is similar to that which the coalition made up in the last three weeks of the campaign in 2010, but the trend is heading in the coalitions direction again.
Smartest Guy in the Room can’t read or comply with rules.
Australians hate cheats.
Factional warfare about to explode over preselections.
A New Way!
#winning
Newsltd will make sure none of thier newspoll or galaxy will have labor in front
neither will the other pro coalition media polls
Bob
Are you saying that if Abbott couldn’t beat Gillard, he can’t beat Rudd?
comapct guy
once again abbott made newsltd and supporters look silly
compact Crank
Abbott once again have made news ltd and coalition supporters look silly
Morning all. Those who think the Channel Seven debate score was rigged by the Liberals are correct. I did not check my email yesterday but when I did I saw this from Liberal Federal Director Brian Loughnane, urging Liberal supporters to spin the worm for Tony:
Shame on the Liberals, and also shame on Roy Morgan, for using such an easily defeated survey method.
Abbott was alsocheating reading notes
what you got to say to that comnpact crank
nbotice how newsltd media hacks wont tell people that
Good to see JuanKRudd is across the most important transport infrastructure policy in Australia – Albo can sort that once he’s finished his beer with Thommo and got his riding orders.
Gorilla
Posted Monday, August 12, 2013 at 7:36 am | PERMALINK
Bob
Are you saying that if Abbott couldn’t beat Gillard, he can’t beat Rudd?
—————————————————————-
Abbott alone cant
The pro coaliiton media and newsltd has shown thier hand Abbott is incompetent he can not be trusted .
Abbott hasnt got the intelligence
I presume no one in the OM is pointing out that 3 vetted audiences came out strongly for Rudd and the self selecting stacked audience was the polar opposite.
Hardly a draw.
You can argue it won’t have much impact because too few voters watched, but it’s hard to argue It was a draw with punters selected to use the worm
Rudd was correct to say that a project the size of a second airport should go through the IA process. Meanwhile Tony Abbott thinks a road to Parramatta gets you to Port Botany, and takes the place of an airport.
The liberal party doesnt even trust the alternative leader , Abobtt has to read the same script from the last 3 years
abbott is not trusted to think on its feet
And pick the bigger story: Rudd reads from notes v Abbott stacks the 7 worm
Compact
what you, and the stupid #NewsCorpse shills can’t understand is that 90% of Sydney residents don’t want a 2nd airport anywhere in the Sydney basin.
Property developers, merchant bankers, and Daily ToiletPaper readers make up the remaining number.