It’s still early days in the life of Peter Beattie’s bid for federal parliament, but a ReachTEL poll suggests he is taking on a considerable challenge in contesting the marginal LNP seat of Forde.
A snap ReachTEL automated phone poll of Forde, conducted immediately after today’s big news, suggests Peter Beattie has his work cut out for him in overcoming the 1.6% Liberal National Party margin in the southern Brisbane fringe seat. The poll has LNP member Bert van Manen leading Beattie by 48.3% to 39.9% on the primary vote, and by 54-46 on two-party preferred. The sample size on the poll is 725.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
We seem to be back in the denial phase, having spent so long moving from that to the other stages of grief, here we go again back to the denial (Meguire Bob polling conspiracy stuff!).
LOL 🙂
Face it: The ALP may well win Forde, sure, but the data are all saying the same thing. There is no prospect of a massive seat gain in Qld for the ALP, and there is no prospect of the ALP gaining nett seats outside Qld. The ALP needs to GAIN seats.
It is just not going to happen.
Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt
Go insert something.
@New2This/48
And Coalition NBN still have nothing, and 10 years behind 🙂
[I wonder whether they have more than one phone ShowsOn??????
LOL :)]
You have trouble with numbers so you will never know, Mrs D.
@Mod Lib/51
Who’s in denial now? You now say Forde is a ‘may win’ seat.
[It is just not going to happen.]
I’ll save that one for another day.
Who opened their lunchbox?
Oh come on ShowsOn!
You have egg all over your face*, just smile and accept it :devil:
* again (Hehe 🙂 )
Beattie Bligh 70 billion. Rudd 200 Billion and Rising. Qld Fiscal conservatives.
Premier Newman has slashed plenty of public service positions that were patently a waste of taxpayers’ hard-earned wages.
And what did Batty and Blight do? Their own ministry of health was responsible for the whole Jayant Patel scandal in Bundaberg.
Like my full name people?
How is that denial zoidlord?
[I’ve noticed though that you seem to be okay with northerners who think they understand Tasmania.]
If you are talking about me I couldn’t begin to comprehend the thought process of someone from Tasmania.
8.1% unemployment and 20% are still going to vote Greens?
Mrs D, that’s her name, that name again is Mrs D.
Mod ,
what data? I havn’t seen any marginal seat data in qld except todays reachtel.
I see the fringe element is now in session. Bye all! 👿
@silmaj/59
It still growing under Newman control.
@Lady Miranda Ann Caulfeild Ackermann-Boltt/60
Yes, and what did he do? Increase MP’s pays and his own earlier this year, it’s clearly a waste of goverment money!
No goverment under Labor or Liberals should get pay increases.
@Mod Lib/61
uhhh, because you were not saying that earlier…
Last thread Post @ 1165
[If you are talking about me I couldn’t begin to comprehend the thought process of someone from Tasmania.
8.1% unemployment and 20% are still going to vote Greens?]
Err … don’t you keep telling me they’re going to vote for the Liberals?
The Labor nbn is an expensive fairy tale. Just waiting for Rudd sacrifice a few unskilled kiddies. I an attempt to get some numbers on the board.
Just for those who lurve to quote odds.
Labor (Forde QLD) 1.20 Coalition (Forde QLD) 4.00
[If you are talking about me …]
You idiot, of course he’s talking about you.
Tomahawk: you and your side of politics live in denial.
Just palliative yourselves with the last few weeks of sunshine.
I just put $500 on LNP to win Forde.
@New2This/68
Actually it’s the Coalition NBN that’s expansive paperweight.
It’s actually cheaper to do fibre straight off.
If Coalition NBN was going to cost less than $10 billion then I would have agreed with Labor’s first FTTN and Coalition FTTN policy for 93% of the country.
[I just put $500 on LNP to win Forde]
Monopoly money isn’t legal tender in Australia.
Impressive set up by ReachTel. To get 725 responses in the afternoon must have called more than 2000 numbers. With a bit of tweaking we can do the next Referendum by telephone poll and internet. Can have a Referendum of the day!
[Mod ,
what data? I havn’t seen any marginal seat data in qld except todays reachtel.]
SHe means the LNP rumours which she takes as gospel because she supports Tony Abbott.
[I just put $500 on LNP to win Forde]
Yeah, sure, let’s see what happens to the odds tonight.
$500 would create a big shift in a single electorate so it would be noticed. Which betting agency was it? I reckon you won’t provide a name because you are a fraud.
Look at the Labor form guide void lord… It’s a horse you wouldn’t back in pink fit.
Polls & betting odds aside, the LNP were caught completely flat footed by the Beattie candidacy announcement. Bowel shattering would be an apt description of their reaction.
[Look at the Labor form guide void lord… It’s a horse you wouldn’t back in pink fit.]
Actually, there’s 150 different races, the question is which side will win at least 76 of them.
[The Barnett Government will slug homeowners, car owners and the children of skilled immigrant workers to keep a lid on ballooning State spending fuelled by a burgeoning population.
Treasurer Troy Buswell today unveiled a Budget that will slug the 112,000 WA businesses and owners of investment properties, increasing the rate of land tax by 12.5 percentage points.
The Budget also halves the subsidy for people with rooftop solar panels by July 2014, and cuts the first home buyers grant for established homes to $3000 while boosting it for new homes to $10,000.
Commuters should also brace for big hikes in fares with the Government signalling it plans to slash its subsidy of public transport fares to 60 per cent from 69 per cent over the next four years.]
I’m applauding the govt borrowing in order to fund much-needed infrastructure developments. But why do they need to simultaneously slug householders? It just seems so typical of today’s Liberal party to hit ordinary householders.
[Mod Lib #61
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:00 pm | PERMALINK
How is that denial zoidlord?]
then
[zoidlord
……
@Mod Lib/61
uhhh, because you were not saying that earlier…
Last thread Post @ 1165]
Well here is that pos #1165t:
[Mod Lib
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 7:37 pm | PERMALINK
Doesnt the lnp hold it ?
The LNP hold it and the ALP need to win seats like Forde, plus 4 or 5 other seats which are much harder to win.]
Now explain how that sequence of posts shows denial on my part?
LOL 🙂 you are a laugh sometimes!
Void lord what is the recommended ratio of overhead fibre cabling for the NBN… By how much has that recommendation been exceeded by the current rollout…
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-heresy-of-the-gospel-of-low-taxes/676/
Seems this is disagreeing with lower taxes and other taxes like Company Tax does not benefit the country/companies involved.
It does note things like dodging taxes etc.
“We can’t say how many of those companies are dodging tax, but, as I pointed out recently in Tax Dodgers Sans Frontières, we do know that 61 of Australia’s biggest corporations have subsidiaries in one or more “secrecy jurisdictions”, as tax havens are more properly known.”
If lowering taxes (like Company Taxes) are to work, then we need to close this loophole as well.
[Mark Riley @Riley7News 46m
7News ReachTEL poll Forde. Van Manen won seat with margin of 1.6% in 2010. Tonight’s poll has him increasing that by 6.4%. #AusPol
Peter Brent @mumbletwits 41m
@Riley7News (actually 2.4 per cent just quietly.)
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 23m
@mumbletwits so it was 2.4 not 6.4?
Peter Brent @mumbletwits 18m
@GrogsGamut Yes, 54% minus 51.6% is 2.4. @lewiss50 subtracted the 1.6% off 8 ( the diff between 54 and 46).]
No chance Riley will correct his report tomorrow night.
It just seems so typical of today’s Liberal party to hit ordinary householders.
Boot stamping on a human face forever.
Bad news for Newman bashers, Unemployment drops dramatically in Queensland down 0.4% to 5.9%
Meanwhile in SA Unemployment has surged to 7.1%
Mrs D,
Then
A post,
Then
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
[pithicus
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:02 pm | PERMALINK
Mod ,
what data? I havn’t seen any marginal seat data in qld except todays reachtel.]
Newspoll shows the LNP would win
Essential shows the LNP would win
The individual seat polling in the NSW and other seats show the LNP would win
The seat polling in Tasmania shows the LNP would win
Every betting market shows the LNP would win
The Reachtel Forde poll is completely consistent with the other results
When you walk down the street and talk to folk, it is clear the LNP would win
What part of this pattern are you struggling with?
This would have to be one of the silliest and most content-free threads this forum has ever produced. Which is saying something.
Another Abbott pamphlet advert which contradicts the earlier one featuring the Asian woman.
The Asian woman one had a 6 point plan, whereas this one only has 5 points.
Quality control fail in the rush to correct Hockey’s gaffe?
New2This
Why are you asking a question asked by Nick Minchin in 2009? The answer is:
[Generally, if your existing telecommunications connection is overhead, the NBN fibre optic cable will be installed overhead as close as practical to any existing overhead connection.]
@Sean/87
Was that hardly worth to post?
Bad news for Newman bashers, Unemployment drops dramatically in Queensland down 0.4% to 5.9%
I feel sure Newman will rectify that.
Off to bed, the cretinous butt smells have arrived.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 3m
@sspencer_63 @GrogsGamut @lewiss50 I’m generally sus about Reachtel’s habit of naming candidates. & too early for Forde.]
What does this refer to?
[When you walk down the street and talk to folk, it is clear the LNP would win]
A telling series of points, followed by this nonsense.
Psephos
Posted Thursday, August 8, 2013 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
This would have to be one of the silliest and most content-free threads this forum has ever produced. Which is saying something
Jump in, the waters great!
Reachtel seem to ask voting intention based on candidate name rather than party. Is that right?
ru – see ya.