Highlights of day two

A surprisingly soft poll result for Kevin Rudd in his Brisbane seat of Griffith, trouble for both parties with candidates in marginal New South Wales seats, and some movement from the bookmakers.

With 31 days left to go:

• ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party – enough to pare back his margin to 4.5%, and raise doubts about Labor’s prospects in Liberal National Party marginals. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.

• Jaymes Diaz, the Liberal candidate for the crucial western Sydney seat of Greenway, has been a big hit on social media over the past day or two, and not in a good way. Quizzed by a Ten Network reporter about the content of his party’s six-point plan to “stop the boats”, Diaz could manage only one, offering only the clumsiest of platitudes in place of the other five. He was eventually put out of his misery when a minder intervened to bring the interview to a close. Heath Aston of Fairfax offers some interesting background on the circumstances behind his endorsement.

• Also earning raspberries has been David Bradbury, Labor’s member for the equally important western suburbs seat of Lindsay, who queried a radio interviewer about being a Liberal Party member and ominously asked him to reveal what his surname was.

• Labor appears to be in a muddle over who it will run in Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell. Former Gosford deputy mayor Trevor Drake emerged as the only nominee for preselection a month ago, but the party executive has declined to ratify his endorsement. However, Kevin Rudd has been rebuffed in his approach to one his youthful senior advisers from his first tenure as prime minister, current Coles executive Andrew Charlton, who says he is not available due to family reasons. Ean Higgins of The Australian reports the party had been alerted to a finding by Gosford council’s conduct committee that Drake had failed to disclose interests when council considered development applications from a firm for which he acted as a solicitor, although it cleared him of breaching its code of conduct. Higgins also reports concern over “presentational difficulties” relating to Drake’s status as a former Liberal Party member, and the fact that he doesn’t live in the electorate.

• Two agencies have moved their odds slightly in the Coalition’s favour in the wake of Monday’s poll results. Tom Waterhouse has the Coalition paying $1.24, down from $1.27, with Labor out from $3.50 to $4, while Centrebet has the Coalition in from $1.27 to $1.25 and Labor out from $3.60 to $4.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,660 comments on “Highlights of day two”

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  1. Bemused

    My sentiments exactly.

    Phil Vee

    Rudd did exactly as you suggested. Stayed focused and did not allow Sales to get any gotchas.

  2. Mod Lib

    [Who is Ged Kearney?

    Should I know her? I feel like I should…..]

    She’s the one who wasn’t good enough to run for preselection against a walking dead seat warmer.

  3. [ Would it be worse than the damage done to Labor after Gillard Labor being annihilated and left with less than 50 seats? ]

    Well, for a start, I don’t concede that that was even remotely likely.

    Naturally, I’d rather see an ALP victory than the alternative. But (at least according to the polling) Labor seems more likely than not to lose anyway – even after discarding so many of their own principles.

    Once a party starts discarding its principles, you wonder just how far it will end up sinking. And of course, the LNP has a real advantage here – they had so few principles to start with, and acquire and discard them so often, that they have had time to learn to live without them.

  4. zoomster:

    Btw, I read the WAlsh interview yesterday or day before, and was very impressed. She seems like a very down to earth, genuine person.

  7. Player One

    The polls indicated that was a real possibility.

    I should add that the question wasn’t a facetious one. I genuinely don’t know which outcome would be worse for Labor in the long term; a 5-10 seat loss under Rudd or a 25 seat loss under Gillard.

  8. [She’s the one who wasn’t good enough to run for preselection against a walking dead seat warmer.]

    Dio:

    I think you are getting confused….easily done.

    Ged couldn’t be the candidate as the ALP has a quota for male candidates in winnable seats, so they cant give them all to the sheilas

  9. [ Maybe you should save your butt hurt for the knifing of first term PM for no reason and the whole reason why the public decided Labor was shit this past three years. ]

    And maybe you should blow it out your arse, TP.

  10. David

    I really doubt that the GST is a porky.

    It is very close to Lib policy, especially the spread to food.

    Remember the hard line dry group are pushing Abbott a bit eg Reith etc.

  12. [I realised Leigh Sales was very partisan Liberal from very early on – well before any of the Rudd/Gillard stuff.]

    I think you’re leaping to baseless assumptions as there is nothing in the way she interviews her subjects which would lead any sensible person to conclude she is a “very partisan Liberal”.

    I always thought she was good on Lateline – way better than Jones. Her 730 interviews are usually look at me affairs, rather than the Liberal bias you detect. And she was always hostile to Gillard, as many women journalists were.

  14. confessions
    Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2013 at 9:54 pm | Permalink
    Just watched 730. I thought it was fine. Sales interrupted constantly, but then so does Tony Jones.

    People calling Sales a Lib shill are blowing it out their rear ends.
    ================================================================

    you must be the only labor person I know that thinks that

    have a look at twitter

    and is there any need for unlady like words

  23. [And she was always hostile to Gillard, as many women journalists were.]

    Someone could write a good psychology thesis on why female journalists hated Gillard so much. I wouldn’t dare speculate.

  25. David

    I look at facial expressions and Sales was definitely a hostile interviewer. Rudd picked up on it when he reminded her to indicate Rudd was invited NOT pushing his way in. She was caught out in being partisan there (or just rude).

    She of course started out badly, with a rather jumbled first question covering too many issues. Rudd easily side stepped it and she got all shirty.

    Actually it is always a bad technique to start with a hostile question which is what she did.

  26. [ The polls indicated that was a real possibility. ]

    Anything is a possibility. I just don’t think it was likely. The polls were always going to narrow once the faux campaign was over and the real campaign commenced.

    Would they have narrowed as much so quickly? Probably not. Would they have eventually narrowed to where we are now? Probably.

    Would Gillard ultimately have gone on to win? Well, we’ll never know.

    Will Rudd ? Well, have a look at the BludgerTrack for the best information available at present.

  27. If Thomson had some enduring feeling for the ALP he would now clear the way for Dr McBride by withdrawing and supporting her campaign.

  30. [Would Gillard ultimately have gone on to win? Well, we’ll never know.]

    The idea that Gillard was ever going to win the election is quite sad really (well past being funny).

  31. i note Abbott is reverting back to boats all this discussion on the economy, costings and policy is getting all a bit complicated.

  33. Psephos

    I did NOT detect any hostility of SALES to Gillard. Quite the reverse.

    I detected hostility to Abbott and to Rudd and a real luurve in with Turnbull and Hockey

  34. Psephos – in your opinion does labor have a chance of winning dobell, or will the whole Thomson thing lost it for them? I think it a likely loss unfortunately, but I expect you’ve got access to better data than my gut feel.

  35. Player One

    Labor knew they would be routed under Gillard. That’s why they turfed her. Lets face it; they hate Rudd even more than the Gillard supporters here do but sheer self preservation made them act.

  36. [If Thomson had some enduring feeling for the ALP he would now clear the way for Dr McBride by withdrawing and supporting her campaign.]

    I thought he needed the money, hence running again?

  37. shellbell@1377

    If Thomson had some enduring feeling for the ALP he would now clear the way for Dr McBride by withdrawing and supporting her campaign.

    There are voters who will go Thomson 1 and McBride 2 who would not go McBride 1

  38. I have not seen the 7.30 report but just wanted to say that I am pleased Labor got a clean but credible candidate to stand in Dobell. Kudos to Emma McBride for taking on a tough job when it was needed. This is one less weakness. Still only week one.

    Otherwise I thought the tax stuff was worth pursuing. The Liberal position is nonsense. How can they pay for it. Also, it highlights another Abbott lie. He promised us costed policies during the election campaign before. Now we have the campaign and no costings. No debate, no costings, no acrutiny. The born to rule one expects to take his place in the PM’s office without question.

  39. [ And she was always hostile to Gillard, as many women journalists were.

    Someone could write a good psychology thesis on why female journalists hated Gillard so much. I wouldn’t dare speculate.]

    There will be a special place in feminist hell for the likes of Grattan and Fran Kelly, given their hatred of PM Gillard and how it informed, nay coloured, their “reporting”.

    Thankfully the press gallery as we know it will be a thing of history, otherwise I would not be confident of seeing another female PM in my lifetime (I’m in my 30s).

  40. He has to run again to get a parliamentary pension I think. He needed either to run and lose or be defeated in a pre-selection which clearly he could not as he was no longer eleigible

  46. Confessions is right. Doesn’t Thomson get his super payout if he contests for a third time? Then he can switch the lump sum to his wife’s name before the trial. (He is innocent, of course.)

  47. [There will be a special place in feminist hell for the likes of Grattan and Fran Kelly, given their hatred of PM Gillard and how it informed, nay coloured, their “reporting”.]

    It wasn’t just them, but many other women journalists.

    I wonder how they would react should Australia get another woman PM any time soon.

  48. After some on the street reaction to the Qld “coq au vin” MP, I am wondering if there is a large swag of male voters who cheer Thomson and co on.
    Just wondering???????

  50. [The idea that Gillard was ever going to win the election is quite sad really (well past being funny).]

    Almost as funny as those who don’t think we do not need elections and can predict (nay, pre-empt) electoral outcomes months in advance based on polling from media outlets.

    Why bother with the AEC! Let’s let William, Possum and Kevin B used their poll aggregators to select the House and Senate and do away with these “classic” elections where we bother to give every citizen a vote once and for all!

    How quaint this idea of citizen voting and elections.

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