A quick replay of yesterday’s polling:
• Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.
• Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.
• BludgerTrack, which was formerly updated weekly but will now be brought up to date whenever substantial new data arrives, records no change on two-party preferred from the addition of the two new polls, although the Greens are up on the primary vote at the expense of Labor. However, there’s a fair bit of movement on the state seat projections, with Labor up one in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania and down one in Queensland for a net gain of two seats. That leaves two state-level projections at which one might well look askance: a finding of no gains for Labor in Queensland, against three gains for them in Western Australia. Whereas poll results in the weeks after the Rudd takeover had Labor outperforming the national result in Queensland as often as not, I now have five data points over the past fortnight all of which have them below. And while three gains in Western Australia certainly seems hard to credit (for one thing, the model is not adequately accounting for Labor losing the Alannah MacTiernan dividend from 2010 in Canning, which at present is rated a probable Labor gain), all five data points from the past fortnight show Labor improving on the 2010 result – a pretty solid result given how noisy small-sample state-level data tends to be.
• As far as I can tell, Labor and Liberal each had one television ad in business yesterday, and they read from much the same tactical script: both are positive, showcase the leader, and appear tailored to launching the parties’ rather nebulous campaign slogans. Kevin Rudd speaks to us of “a new way”, Opposition Leader style, while the actual Opposition Leader makes like Luke Skywalker and offers us “new hope”. The latter effort is a fairly obvious exercise in image softening, but what most stands out for me, having grown accustomed over the years to “face of Australia” advertising being served with a thick layer of political correctness on top (Qantas being an acknowledged leader in the field), is that all but a very small handful of the 50 or so faces in the ad are white.
UPDATE: ReachTEL has published the results of an automated phone poll of 702 respondents in Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith, and it points to a 4% swing to the Liberal National Party paring his margin back to 4.5%. The primary votes from the poll are 45.6% for Kevin Rudd, 41.0% for LNP candidate Bill Glasson and 8.0% for the Greens.
Diaz?
forget sean
i asked what was current total of voters undecided or willing to change – my impression was up to 30% ???
g
Carr losing credibility denying US Grand Jury
I didn’t realise Sex without a Condom was such a serious crime that Australia’s Foreign Minister couldn’t represent you
Sean @9:28pm – what a load of crap.
I’m a self- funded retiree but you don’t have to feel bad for me. I’m happy to pay a modest increase in power bills if it helps to keep the planet habitable for today’s young people and future generations. I have been fortunate and don’t need handouts, subsidies or rebates from the government. I have private health insurance. Unfortunately we have a two- tiered health system and I can afford to pay to be in the top tier. I don’t need help to pay for it.
As for my retirement income, well I and my employers claimed tax concessions over decades for contributions. I don’t need tax concessions now.
I am now in a demographic that John Howard wanted to bribe. Well, it didn’t work in my case.
Carr losing credibility. Did ever have any…
[1076…New2This]
Owners and managers can hardly ever blame their employees for the failures of a business. After all, employees have very little power to determine what ultimately happens in any firm.
Whether businesses succeed or not is very much the responsibility of owners and managers, who, after all have the information and the authority they need to run things. If they cannot run things, they really have only themselves to blame.
@Sean/1104
You spout some crap.
“@ABCNews24: Bob Carr: Julian Assange has received more consular support than any Australian we know of in comparable times #askbobcarr #wikileaks”
shellbell
laocoon has taken up employment in another state.
Thanks Kevin 13- I was about to mention the Accord…fundamentally changed industrial relations in this country, and actually negotiated away several conditions of employment and reduced real wages too I believe- I am sure many here would have far greater knowledge than I have of it.
[Emma Alberici @albericie 8m
Warwick McKibbin tells @Lateline processes at Treasury & Dept of Finance been “corrupted” by Labor insists he’s not partisan tune in 10:30pm]
Wasn’t he a former RBA board member?
“@ABCNews24: Question 3: How will Australia use its position on the UN Security Council to achieve a lasting, peaceful resolution in #Sudan?” #askbobcarr”
Geoffrey based on the Reachtel Griffiths poll around 9% if that’s representative.
Anyway, regardless of the events of today, it is merely the Tuesday of the first week of the campaign. Still a long time to go.
Carr won’t hear a bad thing said about the USA except for its justice system for trying, convicting and jailing Conrad Black.
Thanks BK
This might rustle a few on here
If Gillard were leader, the Coalition right now would be all guns blazing with lie, tax, debt, mandate, injustice and so on and it would all be hitting it’s target.
So far, the Coalition campaign has looked pretty ordinary, mainly because Rudd, just by being the leader has cut off all of their communication threads. All they’ve resorted to is Rudd flicking his hair and saying low interest rates are a bad thing. It’s been way off beam for them so far (I’m saying that from their perspective)
I’m uncertain as to how they counter it as Rudd has established a number of frames they can’t escape from, the latest being that they accept tobacco company donations. Their response has looked very defensive and suspicious
It’s a pity Milne made that comment about the Coalition always being in a hung parliament due to the alliance of the Liberals and Nationals as it could have been a devastating line coming from Rudd.
Briefly at 1041. I agree that the June national accounts to be released Sept 3 could be diabolical for Labor. Retail sales for June quarter is flat in volume terms so does not augur well for Household Final Consumption. At least government spending will be up in june quarter, and exports minus imports will make a positive contribution to growth. Bur private capital expenditure is likely to be down and who knows what will happen with stocks. So the overall number is likely to be very low. I think though a negative number will be avoided.
@Confessions/1112
I wouldn’t be surprised if Hockey & Co decides to promote him to top job.
Telstra former executives for NBN Board etc.
“@OurSayAust: .@bobjcarr We have encouraged #Sudan to cooperate in an international criminal court. #AskBobCarr”
[God I swear Tisme is the biggest assclown ever to grace this blog.
What about TheTruthHurts and GeeWizz?]
I still have a soft spot for Tabitha the Spam/Fembot. 🙁
Final question
LGTBI AS rights in PNG
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2013/s3683374.htm?site=sydney
He previous suggested that interest should RISE.
For those casting nasturtiums at some commenters’ abilities, here is a thesaurus for you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mental_retardation#Terminology
[Thanks Kevin 13- I was about to mention the Accord…fundamentally changed industrial relations in this country, and actually negotiated away several conditions of employment and reduced real wages too I believe- I am sure many here would have far greater knowledge than I have of it.]
The accord did reduce real wages – at a time of out of control inflation and instead of negotiating away conditions gave us enterprise bargaining and compulsory superannuation.
I really liked Greentard.
Briefly are you a receiver?
“@OurSayAust: .@bobjcarr If we thru regional resettlement can bring an end to people smuggling, we can lift annual humanitarian intake #AskBobCarr”
zoid:
I’m just amazed at the sheer front these people have to come out with that sort of stuff.
Actually, it might be worth Rudd using that line about the Coalition always being in a hung parliament at some point. It really does make Abbott look like a fool
[I feel bad for self-funded retirees.]
Yes, I’m sure you are. Who could be worse off in our community than those who are wealthy enough not to need a State pension, now forced to pay a concessional tax on income above the pension, after having put most of their sper away at a concessional rate in the first place. Those poor devils! They probably don’t even have a mortgage to pay any more.
Who will be next in the government’s greedy sights? Mining millionaires? Share investors with tax havens in Switzerland?
“@chrispytweets: So, because others are doing wrong, those fleeing homophobic persecution have to ensure additional suffering? Heartwrenching. #askbobcarr”
“@wikileaks: @ABCNews24 False. There is no case pending. No charges have been laid. #Assange #WikiLeaks”
Realistically interest rates can’t stay at current levels but you won’t hear any politician admit that five weeks out from an election. That is why it’s foolish of media to keep asking the question.
This is a good place to get stats on the US labour market, where the data is comprehensive:
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.nr0.htm
[Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 104.2 million full-time wage and salary workers were $776 in the second quarter of 2013 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was 0.6 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, median weekly earnings were $776 in the second quarter of 2013. Women who usually worked full time had median weekly earnings of $707, or 82.2 percent of the $860 median for men.
The women’s-to-men’s earnings ratio varied by race and ethnicity.
White women earned 81.1 percent as much as their male counterparts, compared with black (91.6 percent), Asian (77.1 percent), and Hispanic women (94.2 percent).
Among the major race and ethnicity groups, median weekly earnings for black men working at full-time jobs were $666, or 75.3 percent of the median for white men ($885). The difference was less among women, as black women’s median weekly earnings ($610) were 85.0 percent of those for white women ($718). Overall, median weekly earnings of Hispanics who worked full time ($572) were lower than those of blacks
($634), whites ($799), and Asians ($973).
Usual weekly earnings of full-time workers varied by age. Among men, those age 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 had the highest median weekly earnings, $1,007 and $1,023, respectively. Usual weekly earnings were highest for women age 35 to 64; weekly earnings were $760 for women age 35 to 44, $767 for women age 45 to 54, and $789 for women age 55 to 64. Workers age 16 to 24 had the lowest median weekly earnings, at $452.]
Real wages in the US have grown only very slowly since the 1908’s, really meaning that nearly all the benefits of digital technologies and globalisation have been captured by firms rather than workers, whose share of total output in the US is the lowest since 1948.
Interesting that the Foxtel/Murdoch/NBN issue is getting a run, and not before time. 🙂
The argument that Foxtel will be a beneficiary of NBN access to distribute its product is true, but it misses the point that the NBN will allow other providers to compete where they currently cant over Foxtel owned cables. And that is the actual threat to Foxtel.
Foxtels response to the NBN seems to be to try and tie up as much content as possible to Foxtel only. Look at the debacle of Game of Thrones being exclusive to Foxtel here next season. Although that just means that it will STAY the most pirated program on Oz. 🙂
[Who could be worse off in our community than those who are wealthy enough not to need a State pension, now forced to pay a concessional tax on income above the pension, after having put most of their sper away at a concessional rate in the first place. Those poor devils!]
Lets attack those who have taken the decision in life to be of no encumbrance on the government, the taxpayer or anyone else.
How dare they spend their entire working lives saving up enough money to try and pay their way through retirement in their final years!
This is why I support the coalition. I dip my hat to such people trying to pay their own way and take responsibility for their lives. Why does Labor attack these people? There mustn’t be any votes in it, but they are legends in my mind.
Steve77. 1105
Gold star for fairness. I was critcising the attitude in Sean’s comments, not those who pay their fair share.
End of Bob Carr for tonight. Just his debate with Julie Bishop on 24 tomorrow night about the time the Drum is on to go that I know of.
@davidwh/1135
Which is why Labor didn’t promise that.
However, it’s silly to assume they should go up just because Hockey reverses his opinion.
Our unemployment levels need to be fixed first before increasing the interests rates and before letting more people in Australia.
There is too many people in Australia without a permanent job lasting say more than 2-5 years.
[1119
johncanb
Briefly at 1041. I agree that the June national accounts to be released Sept 3 could be diabolical for Labor. Retail sales for June quarter is flat in volume terms so does not augur well for Household Final Consumption. At least government spending will be up in june quarter, and exports minus imports will make a positive contribution to growth. Bur private capital expenditure is likely to be down and who knows what will happen with stocks. So the overall number is likely to be very low. I think though a negative number will be avoided.]
I really agree with you, johncanb. This should focus everyone’s attention: what to do? How to prevent a recession from taking hold?
[1128
New2This
Briefly are you a receiver?]
Are you a thief?
[Anthony Albanese @AlboMP 39s
@TurnbullMalcolm happy to debate you again on #NBN v #fraudband -pls chat to alternative DPM @warrentrussmp about infrastructure debate]
I hope he’s studied hard since the last time they appeared together.
@Sean/1138
There is plenty of people who work hard and long hours but do not get the money or get promoted.
Your view is flawed and biased to hell.
Actually, having just seen what Hockey said tonight on the budget, I think the Coalition are getting into very deep trouble in terms of their positions in the debate
How this translates to the electorate remains to be seen.
confessions
I think Albo should be on fire after Turnbulls comments today.
A quarter or two of Hockeynomics would make a recession a near certainty.
Turnbull is a total lightweight in debates. You just mock everything he says. His supersized ego simply can’t take it. Albo will walk all over him
The thing about politics is if you have to make a convoluted argument as to why your side is right/the other side is wrong, then you’re losing the argument. When hacks (of either side) start spinning and twisting like crazy, it’s a sign that is occurring.