Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Yaay! No Local Govt Referendum!

    My recent experience with Holdfast Bay Council has been an exercise in tin pot dictatorship.

    Until and unless Local Government implements a proscribed code of practice by which counsellors are forced to abide, no more money and power to them.

  2. @1805:

    Re: chomping at the bit

    1714 B. Mandeville Fable Bees i. 119
    “This little Bit, after much chomping and chewing..goes down with him like chop’d Hay.”

  4. Mumble today makes the same observation I’ve made in the past about those so-called town hall forums and the suitability of the format for the respective leaders:

    [ But Abbott’s forte, where he looks best, is the town hall meeting. The same format is Rudd’s weak spot, due to his warmth deficit. Kevin was made for television, not for human contact. ]
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/finally_a_contest/

    Explains why Abbott is so keen on them. The blokesville, ordinariness of the format, together with the casual, tabloidy visuals elevates Abbott to make him look like a leader. He doesn’t fare so well when it’s a formal, structured debate with questions from journalists.

  7. confessions@1838

    She obviously believes that she can work within the ALP for the change she wants to see.


    Then why not say that, esp in an election campaign?

    Wong was able to publicly express her dissatisfaction with the party’s then policy stance on same sex marriage in a way that didn’t denigrate the party, yet convey to voters that she continued to beaver away behind the scenes to get change.

    😮 Again I find myself agreeing with confessions…

    Normally that would mean we were both wRONg. 😛

  10. confessions
    [If Greens voters lapped it…]
    I am speaking for myself.

    Thank you for your usual snarkiness. I “lapped” up nothing.

    As I also said earlier… what she said on the night could be viewed cynically as playing to the demographics of the audience and to her electorate at large.

    However, she has been consistent in her stance against ALP’s AS policy. She has sometimes been the lone voice speaking up in the ALP Caucus and in the mainstream media as a Labor parliamentarian.

    She has the integrity and fortitude to not be a hypocrite. She has a conscience.

    She is to be respected for that.

  12. SOME ONE SHOULD TELL THE ABC GREEN
    THAT LABOR WILL BE OFFERING POLICIES NOT LIKE

    TORIES

    so how does he know what people will do

    commentator for their abc

  13. [Thank you for your usual snarkiness. ]

    There is no “snarkiness”.

    I have simply stated my view which you can agree or disagree with as you choose. I really don’t care.

  14. Here I am supporting ALP Anna Burke while confessions and bemused criticise her.

    I am glad that I am not so blinkered by such blind tribalism.

  17. Just watched one of Rabbott’s ads.

    He sounded unnaturally subdued to the point of a coarse whisper.

    Much like the voice over guy for that old Aussie doco on supernatural events.

  21. crickey turn over the books in newsagents u will be surprised what you find re who prints what
    or who owns

    i have been doing it for some time and i put them back and tell the newsagent why will not buy them

  22. Bring back the Daily Mirror and my all time favourite headline:

    SHOCKING STRIP SHOW – Police Commissioner to Act!

  23. [Cory seems to have left the building.]

    From memory it did attribute comments to him that were a stretch of his actual words. Possibly taken down for legal reasons?

  25. smssiva@1861

    Bemused 1727

    suggested reading

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/my-vote-for-labor-will-be-a-ballot-cast-in-betrayal-20130804-2r7is.html

    Thanks for that. Well worth a read.

    It is a point of view I have some respect for, but cannot fully agree with.

    When we see figures quoted for refugees worldwide, it should be remembered that the majority flee across a border and intend returning home when the immediate crisis or danger has passed. A much smaller number decide to continue on to seek permanent refuge elsewhere.

    So who should we accept to resettle? Those who self select? Those who the people smugglers present us with? Or should it be our decision?

    ‘Feel good’ solutions such as the Greens ‘accept all comers’ just won’t work.

  26. o come on i can remember to tony in a club somewhere

    last election all contrived
    sitting some silly stool like he was at a bar looking very common

    I think kevin does ok with people look how they love him in the shopping areas
    so why not in clubs ect
    he is just more refined than abbott

    confession u must see a different rudd to those people

  29. Fr Frank Brennan SJ, professor of law at Australian Catholic University, and adjunct professor at the College of Law and the National Centre for Indigenous Studies, ANU:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-05/brennan-shock-and-awe-asylum-seeker-plan/4864802
    [There’s only one thing worse than shock and awe; that’s shock and awe that doesn’t work because you haven’t done your homework. Prime Minister Rudd or Prime Minister Abbott will spend a lot of time in the next year cleaning up the mess and attending to the legitimate claims of the 1,765 and more people to whom we forgot to send the shock-and-awe message of doubtful legality before implementing its dreadful consequences.]

  32. allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

    =======================================================

    now don’t tell me this is wrong because it not

    if you put 100 people in a hall and ask them a question get result

    —————————–

    next week you put another one hundred in a hall

    you get similar result with a couple different people going the other way

    ===============
    it just common sense

    ive seen it happen with school children in class ask a question in one class
    the next class ask the same question not always the same]]

    so poll really are just like that

    don’t need a degree

  33. Why are the Noaliton using that modern background music in Sloganmans ad.

    Did they borrow that from the old war movie The Battle of Britain?

    I expect to see a Spitfire do a flypast.

  34. [Mumble today makes the same observation I’ve made in the past about those so-called town hall forums and the suitability of the format for the respective leaders:

    But Abbott’s forte, where he looks best, is the town hall meeting. The same format is Rudd’s weak spot, due to his warmth deficit. Kevin was made for television, not for human contact.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/finally_a_contest/
    ]

    This Mumble article is remarkably even handed for someone writing for Murdoch. Maybe they need him (to provide a semblance of credibility) more than he needs them.

    The news.com.au website contains an interesting mix of impartiality and straight out misrepresentation of the facts. For example, it employs Malcolm Farr and a few others who can write well. Again, maybe they employ Malcolm to provide a semblance of credibility.

    News.com.au seems to be written for a younger audience than buys the Telegraph, much like the free MX paper given to Sydney rail commuters.

    It was mentioned earlier in a Fairfax article that Abbott may not be entirely comfortable being associated with today’s Telegraph front page as implies he has a cosy relationship with a foreign media mogul whose company has been implicated in illegal activities in the UK.

  35. The Shadowy Cabinet, writes Mungo.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-05/maccallum-abbott-shadow-cabinet-stay-out-of-the-light/4865280

    [How many people are aware that David Johnston would be Abbott’s defence minister, or that Peter Dutton would be running health? Do they have any policies in either area? For that matter, do they even exist?

    And these are just the ones in some of the more important portfolios. Others, like Michael Ronaldson (Veterans’ Affairs), Bruce Billson (Small Business and Consumer Affairs) and Michael Keenan (Justice and Customs) seem destined to pass their lives in total obscurity.]

    Will we see a health policy from the coalition? They’ve had 6 years to provide one.

  36. citizen:

    Most of Mumble’s articles are even-handed, the exception being those where he appeared trapped in a 2010 campaign time warp.

  37. Izatso?

    Guessed that. About the working like a beaut, herewith a problem. My Say, as did I and maybe Lizzie find it a little odd. The name itself puts it in the past.

    I posted the following earlier, to:

    MY SAY

    I was a bit puzzled, too. About the date, I mean. The site started earlier, but it misses today’s point in that sense.
    I have no idea how to suggest a renaming. The date detracts.

    I am not so au fait with facebook.

  42. o what’s wrong with a little front page editorial by the tele. harmless honest editor’s advice to voters after considering all facts at end of a long campaign

  43. Oakeshott Country.

    Thanks. You were correct, it was about the gap. Same as bulk billing, in essence, but the surgeon has foregone the cream.

    The patient is privately insured and Ashford is a private hospital.

    For a hip replacee of two nights ago, he is doing remarkably well. See how it goes when Endone is withdrawn.

  44. isn’t it time green retired the tired old monotonous hack – he can have the tally room in a shed and speak to heart’s content

  47. Miles Dan@1852. Nice try, but you’ll surely agree that it isn’t quite the expression “champing (or chomping) at the bit”. Indeed, I’m not even sure that the word “bit” here has the same meaning (it sounds more like it means “portion”, rather then a thing you shove in a horse’s mouth).

    Of course, the wanky Telegraph would consider the average Englishman’s lack of familiarity with the works of Mandeville is a sign of seriously declining education standards.

  49. Geoffrey, what I take to be your assessment of Antony Green is about what would be expected of a grown adult who is not intelligent enough to have mastered punctuation or capital letters.

  50. Bemused 1875

    I know of a particular case of asylum seeker from SriLanka. He applied when his father in law had been killed and his home bombed. His application took ten years to process. Whilst waiting he tried to flee to India in a boat but was stopped in high seas by the Sri lankan army and returned to Srilanka. To be fair the SriLankan army left him with provisions to survive in his village. However the rebels (Tamil tigers ) took those provisions away. He survived all that. He is now in Australia with his wife and his three children (through the normal refugee migration process)who are now grown up and married. Two of them are running a courier business and the third one owns a petrol station franchise. He could have perished in the ten years or his position in the queue could have been taken by somebody in a boat.

    The point, asylum seekers are a very complex topic and we cannot generalise.

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