Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition

ReachTEL has opened the election campaign polling account in very short order, while Newspoll has published a poll following its normal Friday-to-Sunday schedule. The two concur on two-party preferred, with the latter finding Kevin Rudd taking a hit on his personal ratings.

As we enter the first full day of the September 7 federal election campaign:

• Newspoll, conducted between Friday and Sunday, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged on its poll of a fortnight ago at 52-48, from primary votes of 44% for the Coalition (down one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 9% for the Greens (down one). Equally worrying for Labor is a significant drop in Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings, his approval down four points to 38% and disapproval up six to 47%. However, he still leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 47-33, down only slightly from 50-34 a fortnight ago. Abbott has had remarkably constant personal ratings from Newspoll since Rudd’s return: after three successive polls at 35% approval and 56% disapproval, this time he’s down one to 34% and steady at 56%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

• More current still is the result from ReachTEL, which conducted an automated phone poll of 2949 respondents for the Seven Network in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s election announcement. This too showed the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred, compared with 51-49 in the ReachTEL poll of a week ago, from primary votes of 37.5% for Labor, 45.7% for the Coalition and 8.2% for the Greens. ReachTEL continues to find Tony Abbott doing well on preferred prime minister, this time leading 50.9-49.1, which is bafflingly at odds with other pollsters (notwithstanding the methodological difference that the survey is only deemed completed if all questions put to respondents are answered, hence the totals adding up to 100). On the question of effective management of the economy, 60.7% favoured the Coalition compared with 39.3% for Labor. While the sample on the poll is certainly impressive, it’s considered better practice to conduct polls over longer periods.

• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with these two poll results and some further state-level data that has become available to me, and while the 50-50 starting point from last week slightly blunts the impact of two new 52-48 data points, there has nonetheless been a weighty shift to the Coalition on the implied win probability calculations. On the seat projections, the latest numbers find air going out of the Labor balloon in Queensland (down four seats), together with one-seat shifts to the Coalition in New South Wales and Tasmania. However, the projection of a second gain for Labor in Western Australia, which I looked askance at when it emerged in last week’s result, has stuck. I will resist the temptation to link this to unpopular recent actions of a state government which is flexing its muscles during the early stages of a four year electoral cycle, at least for the time being.

Tomorrow will presumably bring us the regular weekly Essential Research online poll and the Morgan “multi-mode” result, at around 2pm and 6pm EST respectively. The Poll Bludger’s regular guide to the 150 electorates will, I hope, be in action by the end of the week.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of 38% for the Labor (down one), 43% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). The survey finds only 44% saying they will definitely not change their mind, with 30% deeming it unlikely and 21% “quite possible”. Respondents were also asked to nominate the leader they most trusted on a range of issues, with Tony Abbott holding modest leads on economic management, controlling interests rates and national security and asylum seeker issues, and Kevin Rudd with double-digit leads on education, health, environment and industrial relations. Kevin Rudd was thought too harsh on asylum seekers by 20%, too soft by 24% and about right by 40%, compared with 21%, 20% and 31% for Tony Abbott.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): Morgan has Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition up 1.5% to 43%, and the Greens up one to 9.5%. With preferences distributed as per the result at the 2010 election, the Coalition has opened up a 50.5-49.5 lead, reversing the result from last week. On the respondent-allocated preferences measure Morgan uses for its headline figure, the result if 50-50 after Labor led 52-48 in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,158 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [I believe that we have run out of time this election.]

    Did you make a good faith effort to register? Can you explain how you “ran out of time”? How many signatures did you have as of this morning? Why is this “party” campaigning in Manila?

  2. New2This in 2240 wrote: Pink batts. Dead children house fires.

    That is not true. No children died in a house fire caused by insulation.

    The rest of his post was either false or exaggerated or in some cases even praiseworthy for Labor.

  3. [The last few polls (Coalition TPP):

    Reachtel 52.5 (by my calculations, 52 as released)
    Morgan 49.5
    Essential 51.0
    Newspoll 52.0]
    LOL! And what margin of error do these polls have moron?

    Have a look at Billy’s last Bludger Track


    Do you know what that means Mr Drown?

  4. @Phil Vee/53

    The Pink Batts issue was delt with via the reports it was produced.

    It’s no fault of people like New2This to ignore those reports just like Abbott doesn’t read things.

  5. [ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:30 pm | PERMALINK
    Mr Drown, that’s Mod Lib’s name, that name again is Mr Drown.]

    And what is your name?

    The self same logic you use to accuse me of supporting drowning, means that you were a supporter of drowning for the last decade!

    LOL 🙂 Hoist by your own petard

  6. DL

    ‘I believe that we have run out of time this election.

    Did you make a good faith effort to register? Can you explain how you “ran out of time”? How many signatures did you have as of this morning? Why is this “party” campaigning in Manila?’

    I am sure that you would agree that Murdoch, for example, is a democracy thief? He is not on his Pat Malone in Oz, is he?

    And Australia is not the only place in the world where the democracy thieves are active, as you would agree.

    Manila is a perfectly good place to see what happens to a country and to its people with a long history of democracy theft.

  7. [Centre
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:31 pm | PERMALINK
    A New Way?

    Oh it’s the opposition’s, just as well]


    Is that an egg on your face or are you jaundiced?

  8. I find it quite distasteful if Mod Lib is in favour of drowning. Pretty sick, particularly in the current political climate where boatism is a political issue that refuses to go away.

  9. [I find it quite distasteful if Mod Lib is in favour of drowning. Pretty sick, particularly in the current political climate where boatism is a political issue that refuses to go away.]
    Yes I find it distasteful as well, but what do you expect from someone who wants Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister?

    Mod Lib simply lacks morals.

  10. The Libs have gone with “Choose real change – a stronger Australia.”

    What would a stronger Australia look like?

  11. triton

    ‘Oh, when the sun beats down and burns the tar up on the roof
    And your shoes get so hot you wish your tired feet were fire-proof
    Under the Broadwalk, down by the sea, yeah
    On a blanket with my baby is where I’ll be

    (Under the broadwalk) out of the sun
    (Under the broadwalk) we’ll be havin’ some fun
    (Under the broadwalk) people walking above
    (Under the broadwalk) we’ll be faling in love
    Under the broad-walk (broad-walk!)’

  12. ML has never said he/she was in favour of drowning that I remember reading. That seems to be an accusation leveled at people who have trouble with sending UA’s to places like Malysia, PNG or Naru.

  13. [Darren Laver
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:33 pm | PERMALINK
    I find it quite distasteful if Mod Lib is in favour of drowning. ]

    I find it quite distasteful that some here criticised Howard for doing in the past exactly what they praise Rudd for doing now.

    I find it quite distasteful that they then claim others who have remained steadfast in their opposition to being cruel, are doing so because they like drowning.

    These projections onto me are due to the little voices of your conscience pleading for you not to sell out you know! :devil:

  14. Mod Lib

    I was guided by Gloryc @ 44 maybe I misread it?

    Why don’t you make yourself useful and inform me then for a change?

  15. [ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:33 pm | PERMALINK
    And what is your name?

    ShowsOn you moron.]

    Pauline Hanson
    Generic Person

    ….sem sem…..;)

  16. From the previous thread:

    the spectator
    [gollum is getting closer to precious but it will fall just out of his grasp.]

    Allan Moir did a great single frame cartoon a while back portraying Abbot as Gollum (in red budgie smugglers) stretching desperately across a crumbling chasm for his precious, just beyond his reach on the other side.

    But I can’t find the link for it. Anybody else got it?

  17. Yes actually I think it is appalling that Mod Lib supports people drowning?

    Why do you support people drowning Mod Lib and if you don’t support people drowning could you please clarify your position? 😉

  18. Rudd is not doing what Howard did. He is saying people who arrive by boat will not be given a visa to settle in Australia.

    Howard just locked people up knowing they would eventually come to Australia. Oh and if he stopped the boats why did he fund Christmas Island detention centre.

  19. [ShowsOn
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:38 pm | PERMALINK
    Clearly Mr Drown doesn’t like being called Mr Drown.]

    You have been an strong advocate for drowning for the last decade according to your own logic!

    LOL 🙂

    I enjoy having you continue to splash your face with the fried ova.

    I remember doing it to you with the asylum seeker issue before as well, when you couldn’t name an LNP policy that the ALP hadn’t supported at some stage….remember? :devil: I do!

  20. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Please stop calling Mr Drown Mr Drown, ShowsOn.]

    Hey :devil: !

  21. @Mod Lib/81

    Abbott is full on slogans… He is not offering a Mood of Change.

    “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said on Sunday afternoon that Australia did not need ”another three years like this six years that it’s just had”. Labor was the party of ”faceless men” who had lost control of the budget and Australia’s borders, he added.”

    Rudd is just proving that what Abbott is.

  22. Phil Vee

    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

    New2This in 2240 wrote: Pink batts. Dead children house fires.

    That is not true. No children died in a house fire caused by insulation.

    The rest of his post was either false or exaggerated or in some cases even praiseworthy for Labor.

    CSIRO investigation found there was a reduction in the number of house fires..

  23. Faceless men

    Like the ones who went after Towke?

    Towke is also a long-serving member of the Liberal Party. In July 2007 he won preselection for the then safe federal Liberal seat of Cook. He was set to replace the outgoing member, Bruce Baird. The contest attracted a large field, including Paul Fletcher, who recently won Liberal preselection for Bradfield (vacated by the former Liberal leader Brendan Nelson), and a former state director of the NSW Liberal party, Scott Morrison.

    Towke won easily. On the first ballot, he polled 10 times as many votes as Morrison, 82 votes to 8, who was eliminated in the first round. His victory meant that a Lebanese Australian would represent the Liberal Party in the seat where the Cronulla riot and revenge raids had taken place 18 months earlier, in December 2005. ”The campaign against me started four days after preselection,” Towke said.

    Two senior people within the Liberal Party, whose identity is known to a widening circle within the party, went through Towke’s nomination papers to find every possible discrepancy and weakness. Then they started calling selected journalists to tell them Towke was a liar. The first story appeared in The Daily Telegraph on July 18, 2007, under the headline, ”Liberal ballot scandal in Howard’s backyard.” Three days later, on July 21, a second story appeared in the Telegraph: ”Towke future on hold.” The next day, in The Sunday Telegraph, a third story: ”Party split as Liberal candidate faces jail.”

    ”That was the story that sent my mother to hospital,” Towke told me.

    Then came a fourth story in the Telegraph, on July 25: ”Towke lied, but just by degrees.” Four different Telegraph journalists, two of them very senior, wrote those four stories, so the campaign of leaks and smears was assiduous. There is insufficient space to detail all the claims made and disputed. Towke was portrayed as a serial liar, an exaggerator. He disputed every such imputation with factual evidence. After it was obvious his political credibility had been destroyed by these stories, he started defamation proceedings.

    Read more:

  24. [New2This
    Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 8:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Ask the parents of the pink batts debacle. If they lost children you jackass…]

    Looks like its 5 weeks of name calling coming up… edifying!

  25. fess

    You have to love Bob Ellis’ idiocy.

    [For the first time, I feel trepidation.]

    He was extremely confident at 58-42.

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