Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition

The weekly Essential Research and Morgan results both detect a rise in support for the Greens, with Morgan finding Labor support coming off a little after successive strong results in previous weeks.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll finds the Labor primary vote slipping three points to 38.5% and the Greens up 1.5% to 10.5%, with the Coalition up half a point to 41.5%. That translates to 52-48 to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, down slightly from 52.5-47.5 last week. The change is sharper on the generally more useful two-party measure which distributes preferences according to the previous election result, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5.

Meanwhile, today’s Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50.

Essential also finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval, and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue. Labor is favoured by 25% (up eight on mid-June), Coalition by 26% (down 12) and the Greens by 6% (down one). Asylum seeker arrivals are rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most important by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. The poll also has Malcolm Turnbull rated as best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and also includes further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Labor, Essential: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. ‘Meme’ seems to have become a meme.

    As to ‘Trot’, it is as old as ice picks in being used as a pejorative term for someone less pragmatic than the describer. About as variable as ‘meme’.

  2. [Billionaire mining magnate Gina Rinehart inserted a “poison pill” change to the constitution of her company which could prevent her children from getting their shares, a Sydney court has been told.

    The “very serious allegation” has been made by two of Ms Rinehart’s children, John Hancock and Bianca Hope Rinehart, who are seeking to oust their mother as trustee of the family’s multi-billion dollar trust fund.

    Christopher Withers, representing the pair, told the Supreme Court today that Ms Rinehart changed the constitution of the family company, Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd (HPPL), in 2006.

    “The changes she made to the constitution of Hancock Prospecting prevent my clients from ever taking a distribution of their shares in Hancock Prospecting and prevent her from being removed as trustee,” Mr Withers said.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18232308/gina-rinehart-in-poison-pill-move/

    The family drama continues.

  3. Internet/television/telephone/bicycle…drag out a couple of greek or latin roots to describe the new item.
    meme conceptual overlay rather than a snappy utilisation of a fancy foreign word to sound pretentious like zeitgeist ffs can you imagine using “spirit of the times” in a sentence

  4. [same reason everyone watches australian idol (1) or
    2) nobobody knows what it is so they have to look it up everytime someone mentions so they dont feel stupid]
    I don’t know which of your idiotic explanations is more stupid.

  5. I’ve now consulted an expert on Labor Party internal epithets, and can advise that the word “Trot” is used by some people in the Right as a dismissive term for everybody on the far left, including some, but not all, members of the Labor Left. Its use derives from student politics, where Labor students have waged decades of political warfare against actual Trotskyists. It refers to Leftists who are thought to be beyond the pale of mainstream politics. It’s usually used in a mildly frivolous and even affectionate way. If hostility is intended, the expression used is “fucking Trots.”

    The equivalent term on the Left is “Groupers,” used mainly for the SDA Right (who do have a Grouper background), but also loosely about everyone in the Labor Right whether they have a Grouper background or not.

  6. [Internet/television/telephone/bicycle…drag out a couple of greek or latin roots to describe the new item.
    meme conceptual overlay rather than a snappy utilisation of a fancy foreign word to sound pretentious like zeitgeist ffs can you imagine using “spirit of the times” in a sentenceusebe]
    It seems like you don’t like the word meme because you are too stupid to understand what it means!

  7. Just watching 730’s report on the latest Essendon doping stuff, which I haven’t really followed except peripherally.

    This is crazy stuff. Surely Hird has to go.

  8. I also tried to read Quicksilver but it was too long. Perdido Street Station is the only 600 plus novel I’ve been able to read in about ten years.

  9. [I don’t know which of your idiotic explanations is more stupid]

    aw kev you said you were going to be nice this time

  10. For now, I’m happy to go with the following working definition:

    “Meme is useful shorthand for anyone wishing to convey quickly, and without the risk of looking foolish, that she operates at the cutting edge of the culture, and is deeply conversant with complex ideas – so complex in fact, that the word itself is fuzzy and blurred but broadly involves Richard Dawkins, who happily happens to be a cultural hero, notwithstanding his complete lack of a sense of humour, as he demonstrated to excruciating effect on Q&A.”

  11. I’m a little confused, shouldn’t things like government or prospective government contracts to build stuff like tents for asylum seekers be put out to tender? To like, you know, ensure the taxpayer gets the best deal?

    Yes I know I’m being naive and the thought of the LNP having a fair and transparent tender process when in government is a joke….

    I am truly amazed that the toll tent-gate situation isn’t attracting more outrage. Has our political system and media really sunk so low that nobody thinks this is outrageous?

  12. [For now, I’m happy to go with the following working definition:

    “Meme is useful shorthand for anyone wishing to convey quickly, and without the risk of looking foolish, that she operates at the cutting edge of the culture, and is deeply conversant with complex ideas – so complex in fact, that the word itself is fuzzy and blurred but broadly involves Richard Dawkins, who happily happens to be a cultural hero, notwithstanding his complete lack of a sense of humour, as he demonstrated to excruciating effect on Q&A.”]
    Completely wrong!

    Try again memetard.

  13. [Can we get an update on how many illegals have been sent to PNG under Labor?]
    If the Coalition is going to ‘stop the boats’, why do they need to set a 2000 tent city on Nauru?

  14. Showsies,

    It’s going to take a while to stop Labors boats. We have about 1200 a week coming under Labors open borders reality

  15. I regard ‘meme’ as a very useful term. As others have said, it concisely describes ways of speaking and thinking that acquire currency, quite independently of their intellectual integrity. In this sense, it is like a fad or fashion, but unlike those, it alludes directly to the origins of each meme within distinctive cultural and language communities and their subsequent spread to those outside the community where it can take on a life of its own.

    Despite the commonly negative connotations associated with the term, they are neither intrinsically good nor bad things, but if usages become associated with cultural conflict, then the meme in question may become problematised.

    The term, propaganda, for example, once merely referred to publicity, but now its connotations are almost always negative, largely because the term came to be used largely to describe the publicity of the far left and the far right, or that of enemies at war (which we might now call ‘spin’).

    In contemporary usage, “queue-jumpers”, “boats”, “pink batts”, “Juliar”, “carbon tax”, “nanny state”, “sovereign debt”, “jihad”, “terrorist/war on terror”, “war on drugs” and many similar would all be memes, not because they are entirely wrong as words (or in the case of “Juliar” as a portmanteau term) but because they define and counter-define the needs and perspectives of culturo-political groups and thus will survive as long as they can continue to aid these groups in cohering.

    It’s in this sense that the allusion to the genetic that Dawkins drew can be understood.

  16. [Showsies,

    It’s going to take a while to stop Labors boats. We have about 1200 a week coming under Labors open borders reality]
    Oh OK, so – like you – the Coalition are a pack of lying morons for pretending for the last 5 years that they could stop the boats.

    Just as I expected.

  17. @Sean/1566

    First group being sent now.

    So you can’t say anything.

    Karen Barlow ‏@KJBar 3h

    The first PNG Solution transfers from Christmas Island to Manus Island are underway.
    Retweeted by Latika Bourke

  18. Part of Ramjan’s defo complaint against Kroger centres in trots:

    [Mr Kroger produced [on the Bolt Report above] dramatically written Trotskyist student political newsletters from the late 1970s, which he said showed that then communist Barbara Ramjan had claimed that members of the rival far-left Spartacists on the University of Sydney campus had threatened to kill her.]

  19. Education is the passing on of memes.

    I always thought education was trendy and fashionable! Is it just a fad, though?

  20. Dio: there is lots of interesting stuff about geology, slavery and the development of modern financial systems (plus other more racy scenes of course) in the trilogy prequel to Cryptonomicon …

  21. Tonight’s 7.30 Report:
    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3814610.htm
    [One of Australia’s leading Churchman and human rights lawyers has bought into the debate over asylum seekers condemning the Government’s plan to send them all to Papua New Guinea as morally unacceptable.

    Father Frank Brennan says both major parties are trashing regional relationships for electoral gain and that the High Court could overturn the PNG plan.]
    Fr Frank Brennan SJ writes The Meddlesome Priest column for Eureka Street. He is professor of law, director of strategic research projects (social justice and ethics), Australian Catholic University, adjunct professor at the College of Law and the National Centre for Indigenous Studies, Australian National University

  22. Showies,

    We can stop Labors boats with the Coalitions resolve.

    But it will take a few months, not 6 years like the time Labor has had to try and stop the boats but instead increased them from 100 a year to 25,000 a year.

  23. Psephos:

    [Lots of groups claim the heritage of Trotskyism.]

    True, but inadequate. A koala is frequently called a koala bear, but of course, it’s not a bear, despite a superficial resemblance to those “Teddy Bears” small children used to have.

    It’s one thing to avow Trotskyism, but unless you endorse at least what is peculiar to it, you can’t fairly make the claim.

  24. Scarpat @1577

    I trust you meant that ironically, because even by the vague consensus around here as to the possible meaning of “meme”, your usage there was quite wrong.

  25. [members of the rival far-left Spartacists on the University of Sydney campus had threatened to kill her.]

    Quite believable. They are loonies. At La Trobe in the 70s they used to have pitched battles with the Maoists.

    We also have the LaRouchies (CEC in Australia) who started out as Trots but have morphed into conspiracy theory whackos whom some consider fascists.

  26. [Showies,

    We can stop Labors boats with the Coalitions resolve.

    But it will take a few months, not 6 years like the time Labor has had to try and stop the boats but instead increased them from 100 a year to 25,000 a year.]
    You’re telling lies again!

    Tony Abbott doesn’t say “we will stop the boats eventually”.

    His slogan has THREE words “stop the boats”.

    And today he has admitted he won’t stop the boats at all, he will send people to a tent city on Nauru, and then if they are found to be refugees they will be resettled IN AUSTRALIA!

    You’re so stupid you can’t even see that Abbott has lied his head off about this whole issue.

  27. I think you will be ecstatic to learn that PNG will be receiving the first lot by the end of the week

    I thought that Toll had already delivered the first load using its free seats …

  28. [Tisme

    I think you will be ecstatic to learn that PNG will be receiving the first lot by the end of the week]

    I’ll be waiting in eager anticipation… with 1200 a week arriving the question that will be asked is will there be more Labor PNG boatpeople in Australia than PNG?

  29. [True, but inadequate. A koala is frequently called a koala bear, but of course, it’s not a bear, despite a superficial resemblance to those “Teddy Bears” small children used to have.

    It’s one thing to avow Trotskyism, but unless you endorse at least what is peculiar to it, you can’t fairly make the claim.]

    To the best of my knowledge, koalas don’t claim to be bears, whereas all the groups I listed do, or did, claim to be Trotskyists.

  30. [We also have the LaRouchies (CEC in Australia) who started out as Trots but have morphed into conspiracy theory whackos whom some consider fascists.]
    When I was handing out YES cars for the 1999 Republic referendum, the NO cards were being handed out by a woman from the Citizen’s Electoral Council. That’s the sort of bottom of the barrel scum the Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy was willing to get in bed with to put their case forward.

  31. [I’ll be waiting in eager anticipation… with 1200 a week arriving the question that will be asked is will there be more Labor PNG boatpeople in Australia than PNG?]
    So you’ve finally admitted that Tony Abbott won’t actually Stop the Boats, that was all just bullshit.

  32. [First group being sent now.]
    But…but… the word around town was that no one was actually going to be sent to PNG…

  33. Tisme

    What a crap policy from Abbott!

    Don’t you think that if the Monkey increases the capacity for Nauru, the message sent to the people smugglers will be that we expect and intend to cater for MORE people on Nauru? 😯

    Silly Monkey :mrgreen:

  34. [I have liberals tweeting me that PNG want get through the

    HOR,,,, what should I say]
    It doesn’t need to be put to the parliament because PNG is a signatory to the refugee convention (unlike Malaysia).

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