Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest.
Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%)
Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre which has been effectively unchanged by the redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford slightly outweighed by blue-ribbon Mount Eliza immediately to the south. The electorate further extends south to Liberal-leaning Mornington along the coast, and inland to marginal Langwarrin. The north-south electoral cleavage reflects a straightforward divide in incomes, the area being notably Anglo at both ends.
Dunkley was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and won for Labor on its inauguration by Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election. Chynoweth was re-elected with a small swing in 1987 and then gained a 3.9% boost with a redistribution that shifted the electorate further north, exchanging Mornington for Chelsea. However, even this was not sufficient to hold back a tide that costs Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, with Liberal candidate Frank Ford gaining the seat off a 6.8% swing. Chynoweth ran again in 1993 and emerged a surprise winner, securing a slender 0.6% margin after a 1.9% swing. Hope for another term was effectively dashed when a new redistribution effectively undid the last, leaving Chynoweth defending a negative margin at a losing election.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Bruce Billson, who by the 2004 election had built enough of a buffer to survive the reverse that has played out with 5.3% and 3.0% swings over successive elections. Billson rose to the outer ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in the last two years of the Howard government and then to the front bench in opposition, but he was demoted to the outer ministry by Malcolm Turnbull after backing other horses in leadership ballots. He would return in the small business portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, holding it and related portfolios ever since. His Labor opponent is Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford.
Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%)
Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor and Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway through the Blue Mountains. The seat has existed in name since federation but has changed substantially voer its history, having originally been concentrated on Bathurst and Lithgow. Those areas came to be accommodated by Calare after the 1977 and 1984 redistributions, the latter effecting further change by transferring Penrith and St Marys to the new seat of Lindsay. Macquarie briefly resumed its former dimensions between 2007 and 2010, when Calare moved deep into the state’s interior to cover the abolition of Gwydir and Macquarie lost the Hawkesbury area to Greenway. This resulted in a brief interruption to a Liberal hold on the seat going back to 1996, which was resumed in 2010 when Louise Markus succeeding in transferring to the seat from unfavourably redistributed Greenway.
Macquarie’s most famous former member is Ben Chifley, who was born and raised in Bathurst and first elected to the seat in 1928. Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. Labor thereafter held the seat without interruption until the dark days of 1975 and 1977, with Ross Free recovering the seat with Labor’s improved performance in 1980. Free jumped to the new seat of Lindsay when parliament was enlarged in 1984, which took in the strong Labor areas of Penrith and St Marys. The slender margin left to Labor in Macquarie was erased by a slight swing at the 1984 election, and the seat held for the Liberals for the next three terms by Alasdair Webster. Maggie Deahm won the seat for Labor in 1993 by 164 votes, a margin that was easily accounted for by a 6.5% swing to Liberal candidate Kerry Bartlett when the Keating government was dumped in 1996. Bartlett’s margin progressed from 4.1% at the 1998 election to 8.9% at the 2004 election, at which point the aforementioned redistribution pulled the rug from under his feet.
Macquarie now had a notional Labor margin of 0.5%, to which the locally familiar Bob Debus added another 6.6% as Kevin Rudd led Labor to office. The Hawkesbury area meanwhile came to be represented Louise Markus, a former Hillsong Church community worker who in 2004 won the seat of Greenway for the Liberals for the first time since it was created in 1984. The redistribution then inflated her margin in Greenway from 0.6% to 11.0%, of which 4.5% remained after the 2007 election. The effect of the 2010 redistribution was even more pronounced, producing a 10.2% shift to Labor in Greenway while all but eliminating Labor’s margin in Macquarie. Upon jumping ship for Macquarie, where her task was aided by Debus’s retirement, Markus picked up a relatively mild swing of 1.5% that was nonetheless sufficient to secure her a margin of 1.2%. Markus meanwhile was promoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in September 2008, but dropped after the 2010 election.
Labor’s election for the second successive elections is Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who promotes herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”.
Tricot @400
I was being sarcastic. They build every poll up like that on twitter because they’re desperate for attention
Abbott is ahead in the polls, he’s ahead in the betting market.
He’s already got rid of Rudd once and he’ll do it again, after taking care of Gillard. For him it’s a sport and he enjoys taking out Labor politicians and leaders.
Why would the coalition change horses mid stream with such a successful opposition leader destroying the competition?
Sounds like a Labor supporters wet dream to me and nothing more.
William,
Just another note for the Crikey techs.
On my android phone – latest version and standard browser, certain pages on this blog will crash the browser. It appears to be scripting at fault and of that my guess is its related to the third party ads and so on. Its sporadic – more so particular pages (and/or ads/sidebars) than particular reloads.
@395 – nature’s TV. Love a good fire. Plus it’s cold and raining might have something to do with it.
Tricot – very true.
I find it amusing how all these people are paying attention to the betting market at this point. The likelihood of “inside information” influencing movements at this point is very low. We won’t know anything from it until we’re into the campaign. Just a bunch of people flying blind right now
I love Tisme’s hubris. He’ll be devastated if Abbott loses. Couldn’t happen to a better moron.
Spur – ALP base is about 27 – not the 5 who just swung.
[I find it amusing how all these people are paying attention to the betting market at this point. The likelihood of “inside information” influencing movements at this point is very low. We won’t know anything from it until we’re into the campaign. Just a bunch of people flying blind right now]
Hate to break it to you, we are already in the campaign… as faux as it is.
Rudds desperately trying to get his numbers up so he can call the election, but the sugar hit is gone and the voters are turning off Labor once again.
spur12
Generally agree with this position. Labor had bled about 5% of the primary either to Other or the LNP under Julia. I think this lot lot is back.
Abbott has occasionally got beyond 44% primary, about what they got in 2010.
He has consolidated his base long ago. It must a huge disappointment to the Liberals Abbott has not been able to do better.
Meanwhile, he is the most despised leader of any political party in the country, and certainly leading from a position of weakness now.
Whereas Labor was faced with a whitewash in WA a few weeks ago, I can’t see anything like this now.
Just the atmospherics alone have changed when Rudd was here yesterday. McGowan was there, Rudd was smiling and nodding to the Emperor and no “Julia is poison” stuff we were getting before. In addition, Barnett admitted Rudd was “flexible” whereas he found PMJG “stubborn”. Now I know this p-in-pocket stuff, but it looked good on local TV.
Kevin @338
I trust Kouk on the economy. On politics, let’s just say he’s an excellent economist 🙂
@ spur What about the people who have knowledge of private polling in marginals? I believe that betting on elections should and probably will be outlawed eventually.
[ On my android phone – latest version and standard browser, certain pages on this blog will crash the browser. ]
Which browser are you using?
I had something similar sometime ago with my original browser but switched to chrome for android and that was the end of problem.
Compact Crank
37-38 not 27. You might wish it were 27 but it’s 37-38. The Coalition’s base is 42-43
pithicus
That’s why people pay attention to the betting markets. I just don’t see how we’re going to know anything from them that we don’t know from the published polling at this point. Just a bunch of people betting based on what they see from Newspoll or what they think will be the impact of the latest policy announcement
Love how the Libs on here are still in a pre leadership change time warp, thinking the tidal wave is coming. I wouldn’t hold my breath. I think this election could yet be very, very close.
Spur – the polls show the ALP Base is about 27. That’s the lowest they’ve got to allowing for MOE
“@caisley4longman: 5 days to go until Campaign Launch with @billshortenmp. Have you RSVP’d yet? https://t.co/569wn8hUWC #Auspol”
retweeted by Bill Shorten
spur12 – yep, I got it.
For those relying on the betting markets as any kind of predictor this far out I harken back to the WA election prior to the last one in May of 2013 when Carpenter was leader.
Every “reputable” betting agency, at the time and right to the start of the election, had Labor the extreme short odds to win. Even the Emperor was impressed as he was going to retire.
Just how wrong can you be? The betting was wrong, wrong, wrong.
I know there has been a spirited debate over the last few weeks on the role on betting odds in election campaigns but other than a punt, and good luck to those who do it, a punt is a punt is punt.
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Political Alert @political_alert 3h
First group of asylum seekers under new arrangement will be transferred to Manus Island once health checks are complete – Burke #auspol #png
Retweeted by that
Compact Crank
Election by election, that ALP primary vote rarely goes below 37-38. When it starts to do that (it was going to go to around 32 if nothing changed earlier this year) then you can say there’s a decline in the ALP base
Matt31 – I’m not expecting a tidal wave – polls plus rational analysis of Independent seats show tight Coalition victory.
Tricot
Exactly. Right now, people are punting based on intuition. We’re not going to know anything from them for awhile (if at all)
W. Bludger @GeorgeBludger 3h
All the way to lunacy! Go! “@ABCNews24: Abbott: I’m not going to be deterred by any agency from doing what is necessary to stop the boats”
Expand ===================================================================== who are the agencies heis talking about
Spur – so you are ignoring polling between elections to derive your base?
I have personally done quite well on seat betting since 2007, including sa, qld, state elections and the us election. But I still advocate banning election betting.
Aussie A
Love your comments always on the ball
BTW See the LNP trolls are getting very busy on Twitter obviously getting very worried, eg I have some after me at the moment love it. :devil: Also some very good tweeter followers have been mysteriously suspended. Notice LNP Posters are also very active here on PB. Something is worrying them 😀
Take out the rural socialists, the absolute base for the Liberals is in the high 30s or maybe 41.
For most of the last three years 44% is regular high water mark for the conservatives.
As the hard heads have noted, it is the TPP and where this is that counts.
The election is still to be won/lost in NSW and Queensland.
If a few of those skinny Liberal margins falter, Abbott is absolutely toast. Unthinkable a few weeks ago, but not any more.
Polls based on State results show an easy ALP win CC.
I would be pleased if one of your leaned people would
give some thought to what abbott means by agencie
who the hell does he mean
does he mean the military that have spoken
out , does he want to be dictator
Thanks Mari….see you are enjoying your trip
Compact Crank
Yes. Gillard alienated a whole segment of the ALP base. That segment has now returned
It’s not hubris to say for the last 3 years the polls say the Coalition will win.
People aren’t going to have a sudden case of amnesia the second they walk into the polling booth and forget all the stuff-ups, bungles and budget blow-outs under Labor.
Rudd’s a new face of the same old toxic party.
mari I must be in the wrong group I never see any lib trolls
id like to that’s the idea
ttp://sortius-is-a-geek.com/?p=3187
more on the NBN/ turnbull
[It’s not hubris to say for the last 3 years the polls say the Coalition will win.]
The only poll that matters is the one where your side loses Tism. 😆
spur stop polishing the turd…
ST I can’t resist
Abbott’s an old face and detested by over 60 % of voters.
His Liar, Liar Party are also same old. Still no policies, still no costings. Rudd has his measure as you’ll find out in a few weeks.
So Sean, you’re basically saying: “It’s not hubris….. but we’re going to win without a problem because the other mob are shit”.
That’s the definition of hubris.
Dunkley is one of the seats that i like to watch,
The Karingal/Langwarrin areas are mortgage belt, with the Karingal Heights booth last time going to the ALP 57/43.
The Karingal Heights booth has for a long time gone to the party that has won the election, i don’t know of any other booths that have followed the national mood.
The ALP appear to have returned some of those booths to the sorts of results we would have seen in the Hawke/Keating years, particular in the Frankston South booths around places like Bruce Park.
I see the Tanti Park booth between Mt Eliza and Morningston has resisted moving towards Billson.
I know this is a federal seat but the Geoff Shaw factor is the unspoken for Billson has publicly supported Geoff Shaw.
Redux @Gusface_Redux 3h
End the suspense,Name the date,Call the election. Oh Mr Abbott you are such a jerk #fibs #3wordslogans
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now I think reading that, we should go late
lest see how many more hair brained ideas he has
Sean – explain what is wrong with the Australian economy.
Convince me, see if you can get me to agree and I’ll vote Liberal.
Chris Ogilvie @ChrisOgilvieSnr 7m
@SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars
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is this OLD OR NEW PLSE
AA
ST doesn’t have facts just hyperbole. He couldn’t convince a mouse to eat cheese if he was anywhere close to it.
Reason – the mouse would “smell a rat”.
[Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. ]
Actually he only failed to recover it once, in 1934, when he trailed far behind the Lang candidate. In 1937 the Labor candidate was Tony Luchetti, who eventually inherited the seat when Chifley died in 1951.
[Wayne Swan @SwannyQLD 33m
Great to have @tanya_plibersek in town to support locals against Newman’s savage health cuts. A snippet from today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60gQJtOyUkI … ]
Sean
I’m not sure if you recall the 1990 or 1993 elections but many people wanted to get rid of the ALP yet they won both of those elections for when it came time to stand over the piece of green paper with the little pencil people felt uneasy with the alternative.
This brings me to the current Liberal Party. What excelty will the Liberal Party do to improve the country, this is the question that Tone is yet to answer.
Stopping the boats and no carbon tax are nice but where are the policies for people in their every day lives.
The Liberal Party are yet to explain how they will improve the country, yes we know that they will seek audit reports and get the productivity commission to do some work but what will the Liberal Party hope to gain from those reports.
The Voters that want no more boats or no carbon tax are already in the Liberal column, just as the voters that want the NBN, NDIS and Gonski are already in the ALP camp.
This leaves the undecided or those not interested in those things and they are the ones that will decide the next election.
For them the hip pocket is most important.
my say wowsers!!! please be true
Sean
What did you make of the comments from the CEO of Goldman Sack about the Australian economy?