Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest.
Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%)
Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre which has been effectively unchanged by the redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford slightly outweighed by blue-ribbon Mount Eliza immediately to the south. The electorate further extends south to Liberal-leaning Mornington along the coast, and inland to marginal Langwarrin. The north-south electoral cleavage reflects a straightforward divide in incomes, the area being notably Anglo at both ends.
Dunkley was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and won for Labor on its inauguration by Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election. Chynoweth was re-elected with a small swing in 1987 and then gained a 3.9% boost with a redistribution that shifted the electorate further north, exchanging Mornington for Chelsea. However, even this was not sufficient to hold back a tide that costs Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, with Liberal candidate Frank Ford gaining the seat off a 6.8% swing. Chynoweth ran again in 1993 and emerged a surprise winner, securing a slender 0.6% margin after a 1.9% swing. Hope for another term was effectively dashed when a new redistribution effectively undid the last, leaving Chynoweth defending a negative margin at a losing election.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Bruce Billson, who by the 2004 election had built enough of a buffer to survive the reverse that has played out with 5.3% and 3.0% swings over successive elections. Billson rose to the outer ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in the last two years of the Howard government and then to the front bench in opposition, but he was demoted to the outer ministry by Malcolm Turnbull after backing other horses in leadership ballots. He would return in the small business portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, holding it and related portfolios ever since. His Labor opponent is Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford.
Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%)
Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor and Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway through the Blue Mountains. The seat has existed in name since federation but has changed substantially voer its history, having originally been concentrated on Bathurst and Lithgow. Those areas came to be accommodated by Calare after the 1977 and 1984 redistributions, the latter effecting further change by transferring Penrith and St Marys to the new seat of Lindsay. Macquarie briefly resumed its former dimensions between 2007 and 2010, when Calare moved deep into the state’s interior to cover the abolition of Gwydir and Macquarie lost the Hawkesbury area to Greenway. This resulted in a brief interruption to a Liberal hold on the seat going back to 1996, which was resumed in 2010 when Louise Markus succeeding in transferring to the seat from unfavourably redistributed Greenway.
Macquarie’s most famous former member is Ben Chifley, who was born and raised in Bathurst and first elected to the seat in 1928. Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. Labor thereafter held the seat without interruption until the dark days of 1975 and 1977, with Ross Free recovering the seat with Labor’s improved performance in 1980. Free jumped to the new seat of Lindsay when parliament was enlarged in 1984, which took in the strong Labor areas of Penrith and St Marys. The slender margin left to Labor in Macquarie was erased by a slight swing at the 1984 election, and the seat held for the Liberals for the next three terms by Alasdair Webster. Maggie Deahm won the seat for Labor in 1993 by 164 votes, a margin that was easily accounted for by a 6.5% swing to Liberal candidate Kerry Bartlett when the Keating government was dumped in 1996. Bartlett’s margin progressed from 4.1% at the 1998 election to 8.9% at the 2004 election, at which point the aforementioned redistribution pulled the rug from under his feet.
Macquarie now had a notional Labor margin of 0.5%, to which the locally familiar Bob Debus added another 6.6% as Kevin Rudd led Labor to office. The Hawkesbury area meanwhile came to be represented Louise Markus, a former Hillsong Church community worker who in 2004 won the seat of Greenway for the Liberals for the first time since it was created in 1984. The redistribution then inflated her margin in Greenway from 0.6% to 11.0%, of which 4.5% remained after the 2007 election. The effect of the 2010 redistribution was even more pronounced, producing a 10.2% shift to Labor in Greenway while all but eliminating Labor’s margin in Macquarie. Upon jumping ship for Macquarie, where her task was aided by Debus’s retirement, Markus picked up a relatively mild swing of 1.5% that was nonetheless sufficient to secure her a margin of 1.2%. Markus meanwhile was promoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in September 2008, but dropped after the 2010 election.
Labor’s election for the second successive elections is Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who promotes herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”.
Andrew Jarman… who has never said a silly thing in his life… is adamant that Essendon will be stripped of all their points
puff calm down old fellow. what more do you want — pragmatically speaking. rudd is not boring, he is even a bit unpredictable. think of what he’s trying to do
[ Are you, Dave and AA the same person or just doing a tag team act? ]
Different ends of Australia, which William could verify from IP addresses if he could be bothered, which no doubt he couldn’t.
I’m in hockey’s electorate, but he won’t ever get my vote.
Sean’s explanation last time – was – this was under the Turnbull Liberals so it doesn’t count
Regarding the constant blaming of Rudd and Gillard for the dismantling of the “Pacific Solution”:
“1 December 2008
Government welcomes a bipartisan report on immigration detention The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the first report of the inquiry into immigration detention by the Joint Standing Committee on Migration.
Senator Evans said he was pleased that the Committee, which includes senior Liberal MPs and the Shadow Immigration Minister Sharman Stone, has endorsed the Rudd Government’s abolition of John Howard’s inhumane approach to immigration detention.”
Sharman Stone on the ABC:
LEIGH SALES: Does that mean – sorry to interrupt, but I just want to pick up on that point. Does that mean then that we need to see the reinstatement of the TPVs, and the Pacific Solution?
SHARMAN STONE: We don’t need the Pacific Solution now, that’s Nauru Island and Manus Island, because we have the Christmas Island centre completed. A very well structured and appropriate facility for people who need to be, of course, detained very, very, so I say humanely, so they very quickly can have their identities, their security, their character and health status checked. So we don’t need alternatives to Nauru and Manus island, we have Christmas Island.
“So back in 2008 the Coalition fully supported Labor’s move to dismantle the Pacific Solution, Why ? Because PM John Howard had decided to spend $400 million upgrading the Christmas Island detention centre to a facility that would accommodate 800 asylum seekers. Why would he do that if the boats had stopped coming?
Obviously John Howard was thinking “down the track”, he knew that the Pacific Solution was unsustainable, he realised that it was only a matter of time before the Pacific Solution would have to be scrapped because it was a very expensive and extremely inhumane policy to stop the boats.”
Labor went to the 2007 election with the dismantling of the Pacific Solution as a key policy. Imagine the howls of outrage from all the Righties if they’d “broken yet another election promise”. And it wasn’t just the Left that cheered, it was the majority of Australians. The opposition supported it, News Limited editorials at the time supported it.
If Rudd loses this election just remember, we threw away a win to reinstate him.
BTW I listened to ruddistas whining whinging white-anting and giving aid and comfort to the enemy for three years on PB in the hope of bringing about what we have now, two opposition leaders fighting for the Lodge, with no advantage of incumbency, legislative record or defending our solid policy platform.
So if anyone wants to tell me to shut up, they can go rodent cuddle themselves.
[dave
….
I’m in hockey’s electorate, but he won’t ever get my vote.]
…dont think he will be needing it actually!
Evans resigning is another case of the media’s running a lets get someone sacked campaign.
The media is a disgrace.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:45 pm | PERMALINK
If Rudd loses this election just remember, we threw away a win to reinstate him.]
Yes, very good idea to set the meme that any loss is Rudd’s fault and not the person who was either leader or deputy for nearly all of the ALP’s 6 miserable years in government!
I like your forward planning, very cunning.
In an attempt to get my Nate Silver up. I predict.
An ALP win by one seat.
A L-NP win by one seat.
If I keep this up until the election adding one seat a day I can boast I predicted the result. 😆
I live in the Kimberley, Broome, Derby, and a little secret spot just near Koolan Island.
I also spend time in Karratha where my daughter works as a ship loader for Rio.
I only go south of the 26 when I have to….
MODLIB
Well at least you will have comfort in the fact when Abbott loses you will know your boy Malcolm would have won :devil:
[You do not win an election with a 29% Primary vote.]
As I’ve pointed out here many times, statements like this are nonsense. Henry Hewson won McMillan in 1972 with 16.6% of the primary vote. There were then 125 seats. If his party had contested 63 seats, and won each of them with 16.6% of the primary vote, and not contested the other 62 seats, that party would have won the election with 8.5% of the national primary vote.
Sean inability to explain the Liberal Party positives just highlight the problem facing the Liberals.
The CEO of Goldman Sacks was very clear in his view of the moaning that is coming from the business community and the alternative government.
mari:
There is absolutely no doubt that either Abbott or Turnbull would have thrashed Gillard.*
There is absolutely no doubt that Turnbull would thrash Rudd.
It is much closer, and debatable, but I reckon Abbott will beat Rudd.
*indeed, one could insert “drover’s dog” here I suspect!
mari
Hi. I liked reading about your trip, it’s very interesting.
Yes, I hope the Libs lose and we get to see both Abbott’s and Turnbull’s faces.
Mod Lib,
If rudd loses the election it will be the fault of the man who gave us six years of his appalling personality and character faults.
AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 6:27 pm | Permalink
Sean – explain what is wrong with the Australian economy.
Convince me, see if you can get me to agree and I’ll vote Liberal.
——————————————-
Sean…SEAN…where are you?
Avoiding answering?
Unable to substantiate your claims?
I deduce from your refusal to respond you were lying about the economy?
Or, and this is the one that has me all upset and crying in my bundy…you don’t want my vote….:-(
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:53 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib,
If rudd loses the election it will be the fault of the man who gave us six years of his appalling personality and character faults.]
So Gillard bears absolutely no responsibility for the government she either lead or was deputy?
beemer,
scalps are the name of the msm game. they will get one of some kind after the election. but anyone now is fair game.
People thought it was OK as long as it was the woman with the pointy nose and big arske, but why did they ever believe that once the hounds were loosed they could be called back?
All those who applauded the MSM vilification of PM Gillard are about to find out that what is good for the goose is definitely good for the sheep.
[So Gillard bears absolutely no responsibility for the government she either lead or was deputy?]
Gillard was knifed. Therefore in modern day excuse-making rhetoric, she is absolved from whatever ills she may have caused.
Mod Lib
The history is clear. I am not debating it with you.
I think the ALP should have rotating PMs, just to show how crap the Liberals are.
Dick Adams turn next week.
[confessions
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:59 pm | PERMALINK
So Gillard bears absolutely no responsibility for the government she either lead or was deputy?
Gillard was knifed. Therefore in modern day excuse-making rhetoric, she is absolved from whatever ills she may have caused.]
so Abbott would be absolved if Turnbull takes the leadership from him?
LOL 🙂
[570
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 7:59 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
The history is clear. I am not debating it with you.]
Yes, I think things are very, very clear.
LOL 🙂
mod lib to debate is what flatulence be to ein elefant auf colic.
@Puff
The history most certainly is clear. Gillard regularly had a disapproval rating north of 60 percent regularly. Live in denial all you like, but Gillard was extremely unpopular in the electorate. Fortunately for Labor, they sent her on her way before the electorate did.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has muddied the waters over the future of Labor’s school funding reforms, saying he would not rush to ”undo done deals” with the states but also warning he would indeed renegotiate the agreements.
The uncertainty comes as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gives up on striking a deal with the Northern Territory but meets with WA Premier Colin Barnett in a bid to allay the Liberal leader’s concerns.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-flipflops-on-school-funding-reforms-20130726-2qo2k.html#ixzz2aEtoRajy
Rudd bashing or boats?
Yep, it’s Rudd bashing!
[so Abbott would be absolved if Turnbull takes the leadership from him?]
If Turnbull had spent the last 3 years whiteanting and undermining his leadership, then yes.
You make up good rules, confessions.
Must be a pain playing scrabble with you, is it? :devil:
In the race of Champeens, matt31 is a skunk.
approval rating zilcho%o…… mehh
RETIRED South African archbishop Desmond Tutu says he would rather go to hell than worship a homophobic God.
Abbott has a different G*d??
Let’s talk about Greens lunacy, at least that’s enjoyable 🙂
Rua, damn your Raiders 😛
Where did the Dragons lose the game?
No intensity in defence 😐
Moddy spits it ….. takes ball and goalposts
Loaded Dog…. watchim !
izatso:
I can spot a word makeruperer from eleventy miles away.
Since when does it take 5 hours for a poll result after the first tweet?
spesh wen I dumb it down th’telegraph t’you mod.
This time last Galaxy there were concrete hints out; at least to the point we knew the Coalition was leading.
ML:
I have no idea what you’re talking about re scrabble. I can barely spell as it is.
You can dumb down the Telegraph?
Had Turnbull undermined Abbott it would’ve been a disaster.
A disaster for Labor. Turnbull would be up 56/44 in the polls if he was opposition leader.
And had it been Turnbull v Gillard, it would’ve been 63/37.
[Centre
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:21 pm | PERMALINK
Had Turnbull undermined Abbott it would’ve been a disaster.
A disaster for Labor. Turnbull would be up 56/44 in the polls if he was opposition leader.
And had it been Turnbull v Gillard, it would’ve been 63/37.]
Absolute rubbish!
Twould have been 80/20
[confessions
Posted Saturday, July 27, 2013 at 8:21 pm | PERMALINK
ML:
I have no idea what you’re talking about re scrabble. I can barely spell as it is.]
Thats the whole point, you don’t need to be able to spell when you are ace at making stuff up and deceiving yourself!
Galaxy tonight?
I reckon it will confirm Newspoll, 52/48 Monkey leads.
Mod Lib
I’ll meet you half way, 71.5 to 28.5 😛
Yeah, fine, I can live with 71.5….
AussieAchmed@582
Those anglicans…..
Evans resigning is a sure sign the SS Essendon is about to sink.
Watching Centre and Mod Lib masturbate over PB is hilarious.