Another double header in our ongoing scramble to cover potential Coalition-held seats of interest.
Dunkley (Liberal 1.1%)
Dunkley covers an area of bayside Melbourne about 40 kilometres from the city centre which has been effectively unchanged by the redistribution. It consists of two distinct electoral parts, with Labor-leaning Frankston and its northern coastal neighbour Seaford slightly outweighed by blue-ribbon Mount Eliza immediately to the south. The electorate further extends south to Liberal-leaning Mornington along the coast, and inland to marginal Langwarrin. The north-south electoral cleavage reflects a straightforward divide in incomes, the area being notably Anglo at both ends.
Dunkley was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and won for Labor on its inauguration by Robert Chynoweth, who had cut short Peter Reith’s brief first stint in parliament by winning Flinders for Labor at the 1983 election. Chynoweth was re-elected with a small swing in 1987 and then gained a 3.9% boost with a redistribution that shifted the electorate further north, exchanging Mornington for Chelsea. However, even this was not sufficient to hold back a tide that costs Labor nine Victorian seats at the 1990 election, with Liberal candidate Frank Ford gaining the seat off a 6.8% swing. Chynoweth ran again in 1993 and emerged a surprise winner, securing a slender 0.6% margin after a 1.9% swing. Hope for another term was effectively dashed when a new redistribution effectively undid the last, leaving Chynoweth defending a negative margin at a losing election.
The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Bruce Billson, who by the 2004 election had built enough of a buffer to survive the reverse that has played out with 5.3% and 3.0% swings over successive elections. Billson rose to the outer ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in the last two years of the Howard government and then to the front bench in opposition, but he was demoted to the outer ministry by Malcolm Turnbull after backing other horses in leadership ballots. He would return in the small business portfolio when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009, holding it and related portfolios ever since. His Labor opponent is Sonya Kilkenny, a commercial lawyer from Seaford.
Macquarie (Liberal 1.3%)
Located on the western fringes of Sydney, Macquarie combines the solidly Liberal-voting Hawkesbury River area around Richmond and Windsor and Labor-voting communities on the Great Western Highway through the Blue Mountains. The seat has existed in name since federation but has changed substantially voer its history, having originally been concentrated on Bathurst and Lithgow. Those areas came to be accommodated by Calare after the 1977 and 1984 redistributions, the latter effecting further change by transferring Penrith and St Marys to the new seat of Lindsay. Macquarie briefly resumed its former dimensions between 2007 and 2010, when Calare moved deep into the state’s interior to cover the abolition of Gwydir and Macquarie lost the Hawkesbury area to Greenway. This resulted in a brief interruption to a Liberal hold on the seat going back to 1996, which was resumed in 2010 when Louise Markus succeeding in transferring to the seat from unfavourably redistributed Greenway.
Macquarie’s most famous former member is Ben Chifley, who was born and raised in Bathurst and first elected to the seat in 1928. Chifley was voted out in the 1931 landslide, twice failing to recover the seat before finally breaking through in 1940. Labor thereafter held the seat without interruption until the dark days of 1975 and 1977, with Ross Free recovering the seat with Labor’s improved performance in 1980. Free jumped to the new seat of Lindsay when parliament was enlarged in 1984, which took in the strong Labor areas of Penrith and St Marys. The slender margin left to Labor in Macquarie was erased by a slight swing at the 1984 election, and the seat held for the Liberals for the next three terms by Alasdair Webster. Maggie Deahm won the seat for Labor in 1993 by 164 votes, a margin that was easily accounted for by a 6.5% swing to Liberal candidate Kerry Bartlett when the Keating government was dumped in 1996. Bartlett’s margin progressed from 4.1% at the 1998 election to 8.9% at the 2004 election, at which point the aforementioned redistribution pulled the rug from under his feet.
Macquarie now had a notional Labor margin of 0.5%, to which the locally familiar Bob Debus added another 6.6% as Kevin Rudd led Labor to office. The Hawkesbury area meanwhile came to be represented Louise Markus, a former Hillsong Church community worker who in 2004 won the seat of Greenway for the Liberals for the first time since it was created in 1984. The redistribution then inflated her margin in Greenway from 0.6% to 11.0%, of which 4.5% remained after the 2007 election. The effect of the 2010 redistribution was even more pronounced, producing a 10.2% shift to Labor in Greenway while all but eliminating Labor’s margin in Macquarie. Upon jumping ship for Macquarie, where her task was aided by Debus’s retirement, Markus picked up a relatively mild swing of 1.5% that was nonetheless sufficient to secure her a margin of 1.2%. Markus meanwhile was promoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of veterans affairs in September 2008, but dropped after the 2010 election.
Labor’s election for the second successive elections is Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who promotes herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”.
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 3h
Fascinating Galaxy poll tomorrow…
Expand
Anne Summers @SummersAnne 26m
@vanOnselenP Can you share preview of Galaxy poll?
Expand
Chris Ogilvie @ChrisOgilvieSnr 12m
@SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars
Hide conversation Reply
Retweeted
Favorited
More
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 3h
Fascinating Galaxy poll tomorrow…
Expand
Anne Summers @SummersAnne 26m
@vanOnselenP Can you share preview of Galaxy poll?
Expand
Chris Ogilvie @ChrisOgilvieSnr 12m
@SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars
Hide conversation Reply
Retweeted
Favorited
More
Without necessarily supporting the case that betting markets predict anything, I will say this: The argument that the markets got election X wrong therefore the markets are useless is invalid. If the markets are predictively useful then that means that the assessments of probability they give are, on the whole, accurate. It would then be expected that for every ten favourites with an implied win chance of 90%, nine will win and one won’t. It would be a problem if such favourites always won all of the time, because that would mean the market was undervaluing them.
To show that betting markets are no good you need to either show (i) that across a range of elections, the outsiders win much more or less often than the implied probabilities from the betting odds say they do OR (ii) that there is another predictive method that is more reliable than the markets.
Refuting the idea that the markets are useful is a lot more work than a number of posters here think. Not saying it can’t be done, just saying that you can’t just say “but WA 2008” or “but Vic 2010” and imagine that that’s done it.
53-47 ALP?
Doubt it
My Say, nothing on Twitter about Galaxy, so probably an old one.
Betting moves with the polls anyway, and vice versa, so if you look at either of them a few days before the election, more often than not it will give a fair indication.
Ogilvie @ChrisOgilvieSnr 17m
@SummersAnne @vanOnselenP #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+4) L/NP 47 (-4) Wow ★★★★ stars
Hide conversation Reply
Retweeted
Favorited
More
5Retweets
2Favorites
myknittingwool Adrian Churchill Ærchiearchive Perorationer Jaco Potgieter Aaron Bakota
1:20 AM – 27 Jul 13 · Details
myknittingwool
Tweet there is the date to days the 27 th
I suspect the next set of polls will either say 50-50 or lean more towards the Liberals.
https://twitter.com/
that’s what I am looking at,, may be u don’t follow pvo ann summers like I do
That poll is probably right. Our Termite operates as a good advertising slogan. If the polls are starting to show some shift to ALP, then it is about time. Rudd has been farting around as the Grate Poobah for long enough, he had better start paying off.
Yes, seems to be confirmed Labor 53-47 Galaxy.
beemer,
They had better not, nothing less than 60-40 is good enough.
It is not bad, acceptable. I would give Rudd a Pass on that.
I don’t generally feed the trolls but Sean is really funny and needs some attention. The fact is Abbott is not liked, he is the epitome of a hollow man. When it was a choice of Abbott V Gillard it was (to the general public, I actually like Julia quite a lot) a choice out of two people that were disliked equally. A case of holding your breath and voting for which ever distasteful choice you thought was best. I suspect that Julia would have beaten Abbott because Abbott cannot campaign and would have had to go head to head with Julia. Abbott has a negative approval rating and pretty much will be a twitching pile of emasculated offal if he ever grows any kahuna’s and actually debates outside of a stage managed situation.
Confirmed by… ?
Until I see it from Ghost, James J or the front page of the Sunday spreads I won’t believe it.
Teaser of Rudd on Bolt tomorrow. Looks like Bolt got frustrated and Rudd played Ned Flanders
https://www.youtube.com/embed/cOhpDHFPJqI
https://twitter.com/SummersAnne
check it here to
Puffy,
My poll guess work has been pretty poor therefore the ALP are properly well in front.
gloryconsequence@453
We can dream, can’t we …
1. Galaxy comes in 53-47 to ALP
2. Libs panic – dump Abbott, install Turncoat.
3. Turncoat embraces ETS and NBN.
4. Turncoat beats Rudd.
5. Rudd resigns.
Not a great outcome – but given the available options, perhaps the best one for Australia in the long term.
yes there is and the dates on therei am now looking anne summers page
so u think PVO making it up
that would not be a good idea would it
I would like to see the polls as well but if true it will be coming off a primary vote more than 29% which is what we had with the previous leader of the ALP.
player @468 completely agree , long term win.
53/47?
Doubt it
@Player One/468
Labor NBN will never be implemented (Unless crazy thing via Telstra).
[ I suspect that Julia would have beaten Abbott because Abbott cannot campaign and would have had to go head to head with Julia. Abbott has a negative approval rating and pretty much will be a twitching pile of emasculated offal if he ever grows any kahuna’s and actually debates outside of a stage managed situation. ]
Agreed.
Since when did polls come out on Saturday nights?
That Galaxy poll number, trawling back through twitter to the first person who tweeted it, appear to be a guess. its no one of any note, just a regular politics tragic. The fellow lib supporter first guy tweeted it to warned those who follow him that he thinks its just a guess.
Galaxy Polls do, for the Sunday spreads
Psephos
Galaxy does come out on Saturday from time to time. Sometimes even on Friday nights but that’s usually Queensland results
Someone need to give that moron Bolt a kick up the backside!
Arrogant mongrel he is.
The Coalition are keen for an early election as they thinks that is their best chance of winning.
They worry that Rudd will slowly erode their position and or that Abbott will not be able to hold together before doing something really stupid, and they also have nothing else to say and don’t want to keep repeating themselves week after week.
Its a game of inches now and a 50/50 poll gives Labor a fair chance of being the winner. Labor are almost there but still some inches to go. Those extra new registered youth votes in some seats might make all the difference.
The Coalition has everything to lose and Labor are already on a hail Mary pass as it is when changing to Rudd at the last moment.
Rudd Labor team have done a very good job for the first trance of their strategy. We have had PNG and Indonesia giving the coalition the finger. And their favourite and only issue AS being battered so much so they have had to go to loonie extremes.
Now the Coalition will be doing all they can to repair their authority on AS whilst Rudd will have moved on to more serious issues of the economy and so forth. SO while Abbott and Morrison and whining about AS, Rudd will be spruiking the economy etc…and maybe a few more policy rabbits to upset the Coalition.
Abbott Coalition have had a net negative performance in the public space since Rudd has returned, and Rudd Labor a net positive, in my view.
The polls are stuck quite close to 50/50 and I cannot reasonably see the next poll showing Labor going backwards on trend, allowing for MOE variations.
I suspect the next blitz from Rudd Labor will be on the economy and they will pull the trigger on this issue maybe. Remembering Rudd had the Kudos of saving Aust from the GFC and had Labor against the Coalition on the economy at that time.
Not sure allowing the next parliament is a good idea as Abbott would game it for news sound bites anyway. Though Labor putting up the ETS would be fun.
Can Rudd let the parliament run for a day, put the ETS to the vote on the first day…and if it fails go to the GG to end the parliament and set the date? That would be perfect if possible…as you would start the election campaign on Abbott voting to keep the Carbon Tax.
Leroy
I saw that too. Disregard it
Player One,
It would be EXCEPT, Turnbull would still have the teaparty nutters on the front bench, and the worst ALP Prime Minister is better than the best Lib Prime Minister.
Also the ALP will remove a dud PM, which they did with The Termite last time, but the Libs held onto Howard past his time.
Still, the thought of getting rid of both political sociopaths in one election is a tempting scenario. Pity the Libs are so untrustworthy.
Rudd had better when this election because Gillard most certainly would have.
Psephos@476
Galaxy usually does. If it’s in tomorrow’s papers I’d expect results out tonight. I remember changing my aggregator’s definition of when the week starts to deal with this.
I have seen no reliable confirmation of this 53-47 claim yet.
[ Rudd had better when this election because Gillard most certainly would have. ]
Agreed.
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
…..
Rudd had better when this election because Gillard most certainly would have.]
I guess this particular delusion is going to keep some warm in cold nights 🙂 ?
I want Gillard back Rudd is obnoxious…
David Evan has just resigned as Chairman of the Essndon Football Club according to the commentators just then.
“Rudd had better when this election because Gillard most certainly would have.”
In an ideal world maybe? Doubt it though, given polling kept getting worse despite her achievements. But life isn’t fair so no point dwelling on it.
Do you think Turnbull would support FTTP if leader?
Evans
puff @ 483, I am hoping that there are some closet progressives in the libs. Unlikely but one can dream.
Puff
“Rudd had better win this election because Gillard most certainly would have.”
I strongly doubt it. All signs pointed to a Coalition landslide the likes of which we hadn’t seen in decades and on the night of September 14 we would have had to sit through probably the most spine-chilling victory speech since Hitler invaded Poland.
Luckily we never have to find out.
KB
I know you have patiently explained the role of betting in the poll game some time ago.
I suspect the two events – polling and betting – run side by side, have impacts which are both mutually exclusive and non-exclusive.
I do not have the wit to quantify them I must confess.
If some are smart enough to put a dollar up and make a $1.50, good luck to them I say!
I saw the teaser with Bolt/Rudd. Bolt leaning forward aggressively.
Would someone take one for the team and watch it and report tomorrow? I don’t have the ticker 😉
Off topic but…
[@ElliotG78: Breaking – Essendon’s Chairman Evans resigns #AFL]
53/47 to ALP I’m not going to believe either until its official, but it would not surprise me to be honest.
There’s still ground to be made in terms of convincing undecided voters that the Libs are a disaster waiting to happen.
And there’s still polling noise. So, pleasant if true, but hardly surprising.
And one poll is not going to make the Libs panic and go to Turnbull, but it might make them lose their nerve, and make mistakes, and it’d be classic to see Abbott just totally lose it on camera once again 🙂
Chris OligvieSnr one of my followers was one the accounts mysteriously suspended he was telling me when he tweeted me asking me follow him again, he and Anne Summers are teasing PVO I would love it to be right though!!!
I don’t watch Rudd.
[Rudd had better when this election because Gillard most certainly would have.]
Julia Gillard would have most certainly given Labor one if its largest losses. There is no possible way she would have gotten Labor even close to a win.
It was very fortunate for her public memory that she didn’t lead Labor to this election as she would have been remembered as Australia’s first female PM but who caused Labor to be destroyed. A bad memory in the history of Labor and one of Labor’s biggest mistakes. Better that this type of things didn’t happen.
If Rudd pulls of the near impossible win, which is now possible, the narrative of Gillard and Rudd will be totally different, all butterflies and gold stars.
I think it would be a massive stretch by # NewsCorpse and The Liberal Brains Trust to dump Abbott now. But if people are desperate enough…
My tip is a “Dream Team” of Hockey Leader, Turnbull as Treasurer. You read it here first.
When? Parliament is coming back to sit on 20 August so Rudd can show his global leadership G20. Meanwhile knives are being sharpened by the Liberal faceless men.