BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition

The Coalition pokes its nose in front after a strong showing in Newspoll and close results elsewhere.

Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.

Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.

Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.

BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,515 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [NDIS came out of the Productivity Commission report delivered in July 2011 after being set up in April 2010 ]

    Delivered by Gillard.

  2. [confessions
    Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 10:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib:

    If Gillard didn’t deliver anything, then why has your party adopted a policy platform of overturning all the things her govt actually did deliver?]

    If she delivered so much, why did her colleagues dump her?

  3. [I saw in Crikey today Galaxy were in the field in Melbourne including asking a 3-way PPM Rudd/Abbott/Turnbull.]
    Hopefully this fucks Abbott’s shit up somewhat further.

  4. [Rudd is demonstrating plenty of ticker just now]

    *laughs*

    Election date back down.

    Back down on carbon pricing.

    Gonski deadlines to the state premiers which aren’t.

    PNG solution which is just a headline announcement to influence the last weekend’s Newspoll.

    Yeah, plenty of ‘ticker’ there.

  5. “So Abbott wins – he’s got a better looking family, and for this reason I always thought that Stephen Smith was the best replacement for Gillard. What a head of hair, the dirty, rotten …”

    Admire your bravado, but Abbotts starting to make too many enemies.
    That, then there is the fact that his policies are getting slowly pulled apart.
    Or that he is also becoming an object of riddicule.
    Sorry Mate, but He’s toast.

  6. [Election date back down.]
    When did he announce an election date and back down from it?

    [Back down on carbon pricing.]
    An ETS is a carbon price.

    [Gonski deadlines to the state premiers which aren’t.]
    And he has got another state and the Catholic sector signed up.

    [PNG solution which is just a headline announcement to influence the last weekend’s Newspoll.]
    Well actually it is a pretty big policy change. If you come here by boat and don’t have a visa you won’t be resettled in Australia as a refugee.

  7. Got a mate, Hawthorn supporter.

    He has a pair of jocks he calls his Hawthorn jocks…wears them whenever the Hawks are playing.

    White jocks, yellow stain on the front, brown stain on the rear

  8. [If she delivered so much, why did her colleagues dump her?]

    Because we are now doing Whatever It Takes, orchestrated and brought to you by the Sussex St goons who backed the current leader into his position.

  9. Bemused; should have taken my advise. Too early to try and rewrite history and probable always will be. Should just keep your trap shut and let Rudd build his own legacy; if events permit.

  10. [Don’t forget Conskis and the Malaysia Non-Solution]
    Actually most of Gonski is going ahead.

    The Malaysia solution was blocked in the Senate by a coalition of Liberals, Greens and Nats.

  11. [ShowsOn
    …..
    Well actually it is a pretty big policy change. If you come here by boat and don’t have a visa you won’t be resettled in Australia as a refugee.]

    HEY SHOWS….I HAVE FINALLY WORKED OUT WHO YOU ARE!

    Welcome back Truthy! :devil:

  12. Scarpat@3341


    When one makes the statement that something is the ‘greatest moral challenge’ one cannot just walk away from it. Either Rudd was the leader or he wasn’t. He could have resigned on principle given his declaration and obliged his fellow Caucas members to go for a DD or accept his resignation.

    Without the support of colleagues a DD was not on and it was a perfectly reasonable to wait 12 months for a more cooperative Senate. That is all that happened and it is no big deal.

  13. I am sure Rudd had some ticker, a bit more than Rudd. But the two of them together do not hold a feather to Julia Gillard. She is the gold standard.

    My God, I do admire such strength, more than I will ever have.

  14. [confessions
    Posted Friday, July 26, 2013 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
    If she delivered so much, why did her colleagues dump her?

    Because we are now doing Whatever It Takes, orchestrated and brought to you by the Sussex St goons who backed the current leader into his position.]

    The same Sussex St goons who gifted her the Prime Ministership in the first place?

    Its hard when your hypocrisy gets thrown back in your face, aint it?

  15. Don’t call Bemused names. We are debating ideas here, not hurling personal slights, I hope.
    ok peeps? 🙂

  16. dave@3351

    NDIS came out of the Productivity Commission report delivered in July 2011 after being set up in April 2010


    Delivered by Gillard.

    After she disposed of her leader. 😀

  17. [The Malaysia solution was blocked in the Senate by a coalition of Liberals, Greens and Nats.]

    It was actually blocked by the High Court for being illegal, please don’t rewrite history.

    Gillard never put it to the Parliament because she’s gutless

  18. bemused@3375


    dave@3351


    NDIS came out of the Productivity Commission report delivered in July 2011 after being set up in April 2010


    Delivered by Gillard.


    After she disposed of her leader.


    After the party voted her leader.

    Delivered by Gillard.

  19. Oh come on Shows On…..all the signs are there.

    You are singing from the exact same songsheet as Truthy and Generic Person.

    You must have realised that we would work it out eventually!!!!

  20. [The same Sussex St goons who gifted her the Prime Ministership in the first place?]

    What? Her leadership wasn’t even tested that night, was overwhelmingly confirmed in Feb last year, and she experienced an aborted leadership challenge in March this year.

  21. Sean Tisme@3378


    The Malaysia solution was blocked in the Senate by a coalition of Liberals, Greens and Nats.


    It was actually blocked by the High Court for being illegal, please don’t rewrite history.

    Gillard never put it to the Parliament because she’s gutless

    Just how much will direct action cost families?

  22. Without the support of colleagues a DD was not on and it was a perfectly reasonable to wait 12 months for a more cooperative Senate. That is all that happened and it is no big deal.

    I agree that delaying it for 12 months was no big deal. What should have been hammered ‘day in day out’ was that the greatest moral challenge is not going to go away, who is responsible for the country not facing up to the challenge (Coalition and Greens) and it is not off the Government’s agenda post the next election.

  23. Oh yes, I forgot!

    Gillard attained the Prime Ministership by emaculate assassination.

    You are going to have to keep reminding me, you see, this thing called reality keeps causing me to forget the trance like state of Poll Bludger!

  24. frednk@3363

    Bemused; should have taken my advise. Too early to try and rewrite history and probable always will be. Should just keep your trap shut and let Rudd build his own legacy; if events permit.

    I am working on rolling back the rewriting which started in June 2010.

  25. Dave we covered this a few pages ago, I dunno if you doing tag team with AA.

    Direct Action will probably be dumped after the election so cost families nothing.

  26. Bemused
    There are some here unable to “move forward”

    Strangely we were NEVER as openly critical of Gillard as PM as so many here are free to kick Rudd. Funny that

  27. I thought the Malaysia bill was put to parliament.

    Remember those unedifying images of SHY bawling in the Senate?

  28. [Direct Action will probably be dumped after the election so cost families nothing.]
    Piss weak Abbott is scared to tell the voters that isn’t he.

  29. [Actually, be kind to Mod Lib. Fancy having to defend the Lib Front Bench?]

    Indeed. Who today would openly identify as a Liberal when you have the likes of the Member for Indi as shadow minister for science! Or the Member for Dickson as shadow anything?

  30. The Libs are starting to develop a habit for projecting their transgressions onto the Labor Party.
    The lastest, it seems, is Dutton accusing Labor of trashing Australias relationship with our Neighbors.

  31. [Strangely we were NEVER as openly critical of Gillard as PM as so many here are free to kick Rudd. Funny that]
    Now that I call BS on and I’m all for Rudd as leader.

  32. [Oh come on Shows On…..all the signs are there.

    You are singing from the exact same songsheet as Truthy and Generic Person.

    You must have realised that we would work it out eventually!!!!]
    Ha! This is NOT an summary of my explanation.

    Try again x6

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