Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.
Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.
Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.
BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.
Mod, oh well. I guess I will leave you two together to figure out how best to end Shows’ counting demonstration before his fingers wear out then.
Rudd will always be overshadowed by Gillard. It was his fear and his folly, and the thing he could not handle. And now his sentence to is protect her legacy. So the Gods do laugh.
…but her legacy was nicked from him in the first place!
:devil:
Oh I see. So 24 hours (or less) made all the difference?
He was disadvantaged by being overseas while under attack in Australia.
Stop embarrassing yourself by pretending otherwise.
It is simply down to the fact that Rudd did not have the courage to look his foe directly in her eyes.
The funny thing is the Coalition will probably see The Monthly interview as a way to damage Rudd and in doing so, they’ll be falling for the exact same trap Gillard supporters fell for when trying to do the same thing!
Scarpat@3305
Well it is a bit hard to do so when she is either standing behind you as she was in June 2010 or the other side of the world as in 2012.
spur212@3305
Have you read it spur? I couldn’t access it.
Well it is a bit hard to do so when she is either standing behind you as she was in June 2010 or the other side of the world as in 2012.
If he had the requisite courage he would have issued the challenge when he was back in the country. He did not.
Scarpat.
That is for sure. Abbott had not choice. He sat opposite her in Parliament.
Rudd never walked into PMJG’s office and said, “I am challenging.” He never looked into her eyes and laid it on the line.
Mod. We prefer to call it team work. Like a relay!
Your mob, on the other hand, had the next runner take one look at the baton he was passed, toss it aside, spit on it and grind it under his heel before running off backwards around the track.
Mod Lib@3303
Not NDIS or the education improvements.
FFS – A so called doctor who will not acknowledge this.
I was going to say with a different rod in his hand, but luckily I didn’t or it might have been interpreted the wrong way :P.
Scarpat@3308
Scarpat@3308
It was made when he was in the US and proceeded with on his return.
You are trying to make something out of nothing.
It is embarrassing.
spur,
I hope they do. If it is another way that PMJG can help the ALP to victory, well and good.
I don’t care about attacking Rudd, because he has messiah status. I am even helping the cause. 🙂
spur,
I hope they do. If it is another way that PMJG can help the ALP to victory, well and good.
I don’t care about attacking Rudd, because he has messiah status. I am even helping the cause. 🙂
[…but her legacy was nicked from him in the first place!]
Because he couldn’t deliver it.
dave@3311
The groundwork for Gonski was certainly started under Rudd. I am not so sure about the NDIS, but that could have been too.
An NDIS has been on Labor’s agenda since Whitlam.
I saw in Crikey today Galaxy were in the field in Melbourne including asking a 3-way PPM Rudd/Abbott/Turnbull.
Wonder if they are also doing a new national poll anytime soon. Guess we will find out tomorrow if so.
a double post got through, strange!
It was made when he was in the US and proceeded with on his return.
You are trying to make something out of nothing.
It is embarrassing.
Unfortunately it is an issue that the Opposition can raise as a lack of ticker. Rudd said that the climate change was the ‘greatest moral challenge’ yet he walked away from it – no moral ticker. Rudd never challenged Gillard face to face – no physical ticker.
Bemoosed+Incompetence.
Bemoosed will never be a PM’s arsk’ole.
[NDIS has been on Labor’s agenda since Whitlam. ]
Delivered by Gillard as were the education reforms.
Delivered.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@3315
Glad to hear that Puffy. I hope you find the work therapeutic and it helps rid you of the Gillard delusions. 😉
More on the Sunday Examiner polling:
“The Sunday Examiner has commissioned respected polling company ReachTEL to survey more than 1800 voters across Bass, Braddon and Lyons to see whether Kevin Rudd elevation to Prime Minister will lead Labor to victory in Tasmania.”
Nice sample size!
Had a reply post but deleted it
Let us stop this boring argument and get on with the job of winning the election
[Nice sample size!]
That would be pretty much the entire cohort of eligible voters in Tassie wouldn’t it?
[Lynton Crosby, the ad man who likes his own PR a little too much, has become the barnacle on Cameron’s boat.
What’s the golden rule? When the spin-doctor becomes the story, it’s time to go. When it’s the strategy guy, it’s even worse. Every time David Cameron launches a new “wedge issue” policy, people will point to the work of tobacco lobbyist, Lynton Crosby.
If Cameron and Crosby don’t know this yet, there is one man who already does: Mark Textor, Australian pollster and business partner of Mr Crosby.
Until the weekend, I knew little about the junior partner in Crosby’s operation. Textor portrays himself as a brash-talking, cycle-loving, anti-establishment, alpha male Aussie.
Yet since his waspish response to a polite question asked on Twitter, I’ve taken the time to read everything he has written since 2003. (Labour researchers I recommend reading them here. http://australianinvestorresearch.com/News_Company.htm )
A decade of his articles and commentary reveal a lot. He’s the brains in the Crosby Textor operation, using hard polling to gnaw away at the insecurities of the Australian nation. His skills have been used to great effect for the parties of the right that represent the interests of the elite he claims to despise.]
http://labourlist.org/2013/07/lynton-crosby-is-the-showman-but-mark-textor-is-the-real-deal/
If Textor was the brains, why did Lynton draw the short straw in having to go to the UK where there was at least a chance the Tories would end up in govt, unlike here?
confessions@3317
Well there was a small matter of a political assassination that did intervene. But don’t let facts trouble you, they don’t any other time.
fess,
We will see how PM Rudd does in the maintenance stage, which is what the next term is about, if he wins it.
The legislation has been passed and the win means it would have been sold to the electorate. The next stage would have played directly to PMJG’s strengths, the long hard road implementing and maintianing. There is precious little glory to be had, and a lot of complaining people/groups to deal with and budgets to be balanced. Taxes need to be collected and programmes managed. The risks of ‘pink batts’ msm flare-ups are high.
It is going to be long hard gruelling work with not a lot of scope for grandstanding.
Mr Rudd wanted it so badly. Let us see how he goes.
f Textor was the brains, why did Lynton draw the short straw in having to go to the UK where there was at least a chance the Tories would end up in govt, unlike here?
Textor likes a challenge?
Gillard couldn’t deliver the community forum (that was her policy….LOL 🙂 )
Gillard couldn’t deliver East Timor (that was her policy…..LOL 🙂 )
Gillard couldn’t deliver Turning back the boats (that was her policy……LOL 🙂 )
Gillard couldn’t deliver the Surplus (that was her policy……LOL 🙂 )
Its just so easy :devil:
Puff –
[ We will see how PM Rudd does in the maintenance stage, which is what the next term is about, if he wins it ]
Valid points.
As is, he still has to win.
Scarpat@3321
You go from bad to worse.
It is an acknowledged fact that Gillard and Swan prevailed on Rudd not to go to a DD and with a hostile Senate there was no choice but to defer action until after the next election when there would most likely be a more favourable Senate.
But of course something happened along the way.
Do stop trying to fictionalise history.
Take the NDIS, for example.
Getting the states signed up was the easy part. It will be implemented over the next six or so years and it will be up to the people with disabilities and their lobby groups to make sure the government implements it in a way that meets their needs. This means watching, lobbying and acting when (not if) needed.
And they will.
Scarpat
Grow up!!
Rudd is demonstrating plenty of ticker just now
The whole back down on the ETS is a furphy. Swan and Gillard pushed for that decsiosn. As I have pointed out to boring infinitum and NEVER get even an acknowledgement from the factional lap dogs, RUDD did NOT have cabinet on side for a DD. It was just another factional trap that he failed to trigger. Hence the knifing months later.
there were 20 ministers in Cabinet. Rudd DID NOT Have 10 with him for a DD. How in the name of HELL could he go for a DD without at least 75% of Cabinet. Only an fool would be so full on.
I challenge the next “he had no ticker” whinger to name me even 2/3 Cabinet members who would have supported a DD on the ETS.That is 14 guys name away.
However count out Swan, Gillard, Ludwig, Ferguson and Crean. Noe show me the 14 of the remaining 15 who supported it.
Gooorrrrn I bloody dare you.
Many will be listening to the testimony of Father Lucas and wondering “how could you?”
Well, lets think why he could look over the revolting actions of paedophiles……he was tolerating something intolerable because he felt protecting the Catholic Church was more important.
So those condemning him should ask whether some in the ALP are tolerating intolerable ALP policies, because they think helping the ALP institution is more important than standing up to obnoxious policies.
….just saying….
What automated phone poll is it that doesn’t identify its name and asks very few questions like who I’ll vote for this time, who last time, age, sex, all by number pressing. You can’t ask “who are you .. what polling company” but can someone in the know identify the culprits. Bloody chotzpah on their part so I had to think quick how to screw up their results but I think I managed. Pity they only asked about major parties (I think) otherwise I could have nominated Palmer or Katter or Greens or Hanson or some other nutty fringe-dweller.
Puffy:
Whether Labor or Liberal win the next election, I can see very little policy stuff on the horizon. It’ll be 3 word slogans, populist, poll-driven announcements, and families in women’s magazines at 20 paces.
I meant chutzpah or course!
You go from bad to worse.
It is an acknowledged fact that Gillard and Swan prevailed on Rudd not to go to a DD and with a hostile Senate there was no choice but to defer action until after the next election when there would most likely be a more favourable Senate.
But of course something happened along the way.
Do stop trying to fictionalise history.
When one makes the statement that something is the ‘greatest moral challenge’ one cannot just walk away from it. Either Rudd was the leader or he wasn’t. He could have resigned on principle given his declaration and obliged his fellow Caucas members to go for a DD or accept his resignation.
Hmmmm….maybe the same persons that leaked against Rudd will leak against Rudd…
Sure, sure…
Excellent night for 1st against 2nd.
goodnight all. Sweet dreams.
dave@3323
NDIS came out of the Productivity Commission report delivered in July 2011 after being set up in April 2010 i.e. under Rudd.
Obviously Rudd could not deliver as he was despatched by the assassins in June 2010.
Mod Lib
You have your Rabbott!
Nuff said!
Confess
[families in women’s magazines at 20 paces.]
So Abbott wins – he’s got a better looking family, and for this reason I always thought that Stephen Smith was the best replacement for Gillard. What a head of hair, the dirty, rotten …
Mod Lib:
If Gillard didn’t deliver anything, then why has your party adopted a policy platform of overturning all the things her govt actually did deliver?
Bemused: responding to a comment on the Gillard years ….. : Truly vomitous crap.
What a sick, sad mind …..
Scarpat
Oh haw sweet!!!. Shorten and the boyos set a trap for Rudd. They panned for him to say we Must go for a DD then depose him on a point of pincipal to stop the crazed leader taking them to a losable DD.
Then Rudd though better of it. Oh! OH! the agony.
Thanks for filling in the details. Which factional member dor you work for!!
Thanks a lot. I get it much more now.