Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. ST
    [He’s a 1 Man Labor Killing Machine.]
    LOL! Best line of the day. For 3 years we’ve been reading here how any moment now he’ll unhinge, trip up, be deposed and what have we seen? Only are decaying bodies of ALP ministers and PMs. There has not been one defection or murmer from Abbott’s team in 3 years. Gotta love it – welcome PM Tony Abbott.

  2. I think everyone should take a cold shower about reading too many things in to this poll before we see where the actual shift has happened. For all we know, it could be a shift directly from Labor to the Greens, entirely possible given that two of the big issues of the week have been the watering down of the carbon price and the New Guinea policy.

  3. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5s

    #Newspoll Dealing with asylum seekers: ALP 26 (+6) L/NP 33 (-14) #auspol]

    Until we see some netsats and PPM that’s the one to take out of this poll. Boats is now a non-issue in middle Australia. A 20 point swing is a game changer. Abbott needs new material, but they’ve been so caught up in hubris for three years they have no plan B.

  4. What I am interested in is the Rudd approval ratings actually. I wonder whether that has taken a beating from the “True believer” wing of the ALP, or whether some previous disapprovers from the LNP voting cohort have grudgingly given Rudd their approval now that he is singing from the Pauline Hanson songsheet.

  5. Rudd has been very methodical indeed so far.

    To my mind, he has completed phase one: neutralising policy problems (carbon tax, AS, leadership change).

    Phase two, I feel certain, is exposing Abbott for the hollow man that he is.

    Rudd has barely started on that project, partly because Abbott has continued to hide. This hiding cannot continue – and when Abbott inevitably faces more scrutiny that is when things will really start to unravel for Abbott.

    Rudd planned out his policy moves very carefully, as we have witnessed over the past 3 weeks.

    Now, we are about to witness the way Rudd messes with Abbott’s feeble mind.

  6. Puff 53

    Matt 52
    Greens normally = ALP when preferenced so only TPP is relevant. It’s possible that there’ll be a leak from the Greens to Libs this time because they hate Rudd. Let’s hope so.

  7. [Pauline Hanson songsheet.]

    I’m not going to lectured on Pauline Hanson by the party that produced her. You really are the most obnoxious and disgusting hypocrite I’ve ever encountered.

  8. As I’ve said before, the 52-48 range is the range in which anybody can pull an election win, so it’s not over by any long shot.

    However, this result isn’t an accident. Last week had some bad moments for Labor. For example, the FBT decision has managed to be spun into a jobs-killing blunder.

    It’s certainly not time to pack things up and call it, by any means. However, it’s time for everyone to pull their heads out and stop acting like Rudd’s got this sewn up. Winning the election is going to be a lot of hard work.

    Now the AS decision is done, time to shift away from that. Labor should be playing up its strengths. Focus on things like education and health from here on in.

    Also, the Coalition dirt seems to be working and they’ve got a bottomless pit of resources to throw much more of it. Expect a rocky and possibly fatal ride.

    Honeymoon is over.

  9. [Interesting that a big shift in AS sentiment towards Labor and away from LNP still results in a 2 point TPP gain for LNP.]

    Is a bit odd, but it does suggest that some voters have been hearing and changed their mind, or at least for a change they noticing what Labor is doing. So the charge is building in some and maybe a little more of it will see them spark across the other side…or it already has some momentum and means there will be some leakage to Labor.

    Morgan with its sample suggest no change in trend. And I think this is probably the case.

    But the seeds have been planted by Rudd and some added work might give Labor some harvest. A perfect performance since coming back, cannot ask for any more than he has done so far.

    I hope he can bring the same conjuring tricks to the other issues, Labor will need all his strategic skills.

  10. Rossmore

    [JV presumably because the people who choose to come by boat cant get a visa to come to Australia. If they don’t have a visa they don’t get to board the plane so it’s a moot point. If they could get a visa it would be safer and much cheaper to come by plane. But they dont.]

    What’s this ‘choose’ terminology. They come by boat because they cannot get a visa to come by air. DO you know the circumstances of people trying to get visas when they are fleeing their homes? That’s why 94% of boat arrivals prove to be genuine, and only 20-30% of air arrivals seeking asylum. If you are fleeing your country with genuine fear of persecution, then how to apply for and get a visa first?

    [“Arriving without papers should not be seen as an attempt to defraud the system. Nor should it be called ‘illegal’. By definition, refugees are people who are at risk of persecution. In most cases, the main source of persecution is their government. Applying for a passport and/or an exit visa can be far too dangerous for some refugees; so too can be an approach to an Australian Embassy for a visa. These actions can put their lives, and those of their families, at risk. In such cases refugees may have to travel on forged documents or bypass regular migration channels and arrive without papers.”]

  11. I reckon 20:1 on Turnbul being the next elected PM on betfair are pretty good odds!

    It is unlikely, but definitely not THAT unlikely, particularly if Rudd is spooked and holds on as long as possible.

  12. @Mod Lib/55

    I think it was Coalition party that sang the songsheet of the Paulen Hanson?

    TPV was suggested by her, year later, was introduced by Ruddock.

  13. Rossmore
    [Are you clairvoyant?]
    It would seem so and you’re welcome to check my posts over the last couple of weeks but enough self-praise … let’s get stuck back into the earwax eating Emperor.

  14. [Psephos
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Pauline Hanson songsheet.

    I’m not going to lectured on Pauline Hanson by the party that produced her. You really are the most obnoxious and disgusting hypocrite I’ve ever encountered.]

    Notwithstanding your propensity to attack me personally when you cannot answer the simple questions I put, singing from Pauline Hanson’s songsheet is exactly what Rudd is doing……..not to mention one or two others here.

  15. If Morgan, Essential and Newspoll is all we’re getting then we’ll probably have to wait til next week to find out if Newspoll is onto anything or if it’s just random sample movement.

    Meanwhile after 4 Morgan MMs showing the Coalition in front with no other major pollster getting that result even by a whisker even once, I’ve had a gutful and slugged a point from Labor in Morgan in my aggregate.

    My new aggregate is 50.5 to Coalition.

    I’m expecting to decide to slug Essential a point the other way after their result tomorrow.

  16. JV,

    For over a decade the same myths get trotted out over and over and over.

    I do admire your stamina. The 18 months u were away from PB would help, I imagine.

    It’s good 2 c u back 🙂

  17. [Again you heard it here first: Rudd the meglomaniac much hated Kim-Jung-Il of the ALP, and reigning earwax eating champion of the Pacific, will delay and get wiped out by Abbott.]

    I’ve decided this week that if nobody has worked it out yet Rudd stands for one thing. Unions? No. The left? No. The Right? No. Workers? No. Employers? No.

    Surely the Labor Party? No, not even that.

    Rudd stands for Rudd. Thats it. The Labor supporters can pull themselves off about Rudd the saviour but he’s not even one of “you” whatever that is. Rudd doesn’t give a crap about your dreams, your Labor aspirations, your leftwing ideals… Rudd’s only purpose in life is to further the cause of Rudd.

    Anyone who thinks they are voting for Labor ideals or any other rubbish are kidding themselves.

  18. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 at 11:20 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/55

    I think it was Coalition party that sang the songsheet of the Paulen Hanson?

    TPV was suggested by her, year later, was introduced by Ruddock.]

    I am not saying that I support Pauline Hanson. I do not. I did not then either when she was a candidate for “my” putative party.

    I regret calling myself Mod Lib now as it appears to be such a distraction here, I didn’t realise that such a political blog would be so superficial that the name would have such importance.

    Just in case readers don’t know:

    I have never been a member of the Liberal or National parties (or any party!)
    I have never financially supported the Liberal or National parties (or any party!)
    I have written to local members criticising their approach to asylum seekers and have written to the moderate liberals congratulating them on standing their ground.

    The difference between me and some others here, is that I didn’t like Pauline Hanson then and I don’t like Pauline Hanson now.

    Some of you here didn’t like Pauline Hanson then, and are now saying the exact same things she used to say (and which you criticised then).

  19. @Mick77

    Not quite that simple. I believe, and I am sure William or someone else will correct me, that the preference flow from the Greens to Labor is somewhere near 80 percent. So, let’s say Labor took a 4 percent primary hit, and it all shifted to the Greens, of course that would hit Labor’s projected 2pp result.

  20. Carey
    [Now the AS decision is done]
    That’s wishful Labor thinking. it’s gonna be headlines with every boat arrival, every group that ISN’T transferred to PNG, every forced transfer to PNG (which I actually predict will be around zero) and every question about the “agreement” which is unclear and untested. Give it a couple of weeks and you’ll see it’s a loser for Labor.

  21. Alias spot on. phase two is expose Abbott for who he is plus a spotlight on the economy via a two pronged approach. first positive ie productivity and i believe infrastructure I would not be suprised to see Rudd make a big announcement on infrastructure and other key economic points. The RBA will assist here the opposite of 2007 when rates increased. The second leg will be fear of Abbott and austerity. Abbott will be done slowly.

  22. Pegasus

    Thanks! Best regards to you too. Yes, they are repetitive these hacks. It used to be only the LNP, but now the Labor lot are using the same myths and legends they’ve adopted as their own in the Great Lurch.

  23. JV I have no idea of their circumstances. I simply made the point that if they had valid papers and a visa they could come by air. If they dont have valid papers they could register with the UNHCR and take their chances. Most refugees do just that but a minority have sufficient funds to try the boat from Indonesia. Why should they get a fast tracked visa ahead of refugees who play by the book?

  24. 50.5 ‘feels’ about right. The election is on a knife edge but I think the momentum has to be with Rudd Labor.

    I wouldn’t be too worried about Rudd taking longer, if he thinks that is the best strategy. I think it worries the Coalition more, they are scared of him and what he might bring out.

    Lets see. A lot of damage has been done to the Labor brand over the past 3 years…will take a lot of work to get voter attention and then get them to change their mind. Also I gather younger voters are continuing to register during this time.

    Rudd’s post political career should be in advising the party on strategy.

  25. Rudd’s PNG ‘solution’ is the reason I have locked in my informal vote for the HoR. For the past couple of months, I was open to voting Labor #2. Not now.

    Some of you might “be so over the boats” but some of us are not.

  26. Matt31
    [So, let’s say Labor took a 4 percent primary hit, and it all shifted to the Greens, of course that would hit Labor’s projected 2pp result.]
    Yes but that’s not overly significant. What would be significant is if the 80% of total green prefs became say 70%. It wouldn’t show up in all the polls but I think there’s drift, maybe not (yet) 10%. A lot of the Greens also hate Rudd for bumping Gillard not just for his AS policy.

  27. Yes, The Spectator, you’re right : Abbott will be done slowly. I’m quite sure we’re looking at an October election. Rushing in is too risky. The “Captain Chaos” tag that is being tossed around could stick. But if Rudd can get in a couple of months of solid governing, with Abbott simply continuing to whine and bleat about “call the election”, then I think the doubters will accept that Rudd is the real deal, that he has learnt some modest lessons from his earlier phase in charge, and most importantly that he can again make Australians proud to be Australians. As you suggest, he can do this with some nation-building vision. He should riff off the NBN at every opportunity, and also make strategic infrastructure announcements (though he can’t blow out the Budget to an extent that worries those centrist voters who have Labor tagged as chronic over spenders).

    In short, Rudd needs to be measured, authoritative, prime ministerial, forward-looking and brutal in his demolition of the Abbott aura.

  28. [Troy Bramston ‏@TroyBramston 4m
    The most important part of #Newspoll is this: ‘Dealing with asylum seekers’ ALP 26 (+6) L/NP 33 (-14) – a 20pt turnaround.]

  29. [Some of you here didn’t like Pauline Hanson then, and are now saying the exact same things she used to say (and which you criticised then).]

    Clearly you were paying not attention to what Hanson or her disciple Howard said and did. Your characterisation of current decisions as consistent with Hanson / Howardism is just wrong and silly.

    And for the record there are a lot sillier and more annoying posters than you.

  30. [Your characterisation of current decisions as consistent with Hanson / Howardism is just wrong and silly.]

    How are they different?

  31. [An informal vote is a vote for Abbott.]

    Even worse an informal vote is a vote for the silliest candidate on the ticket and the very worst the parties have to offer.

  32. Rossmore

    The ‘book’ they play by is “Survival of You and Your Family Any Way You Can” which hasn’t been written yet, and won’t be because circumstances change all the time. Like in Malaysia, there is no queue in Indonesia. No-one knows what the future holds. There is virtually no UNHCR processing, and it certainly isn’t in any ‘order’.

    To get a sense of it try this article by Savitri Taylor,
    Associate Professor, Law School at La Trobe University. She did a research project among asylum seekers there:

    [“Our most significant finding, however, was that material living conditions were not the greatest concern of the individuals we interviewed. Rather most of their very real suffering and despair was caused by:
    •being deprived of the sense of purpose and dignity which work provides,
    •seeing their children miss out on education and hence the opportunities which education provides, and
    •the sense of being trapped in a homeless limbo: unable to return to their country of origin, having no prospect of settling lawfully in Indonesia (an option which many would have chosen if it had been available), and having little prospect of being resettled in a third country.

    Why do refugees get on boats?

    The profoundly negative impact which life in limbo has on mental health leads some to start thinking that returning to the dangers of their home country would be preferable to their existence in Indonesia.

    For example, one refugee woman told us,

    ‘If I die in my country it’s better for me. Because here I die and in my country die and it’s the die not change. But in my country you can die quickly by gun. Somebody kill you like this. Here by step!’

    Others start thinking that attempting to reach Australia by boat is the least horrible option available to them. It is very easy to understand why. From their perspective, all they are risking is their bodies, not their lives. Their lives have already been lost.

    Why Australia? Because Australia is one of the very few countries in the Asia-Pacific region which presently provides refugees with effective protection and offers them a new home in the fullest sense of that word.

    If our only concern is to stop the boats, one obvious option is to ensure that the treatment those who arrive on boats experience in Australia is far worse than the treatment they will receive in any other country in the region. That may work. Of course, we would have to sink so low we would not be able to keep up even the pretence of caring about human rights and the rule of law. Perhaps some will think that is a small price to pay. I do not, and nor should the government.”]

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