The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.
Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).
Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.
UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.
@jonathanvswan: Kevin Rudd is mad famous in Britain. http://t.co/AiEnEEKFCo
Psephos
Lovely to hear the right are fighting. I thought this was the domain of the left. Anyone who causes shorten pain is a friend. He’ll make Rudd look like curtin. The victorian ‘left’ would have been right a few decades ago – there are few genuine lefties there (lisa chesters, candidate for bendigo seems good). The true labor left are greens nowadays, and thanks to rudd’s bastardry on refugees, the vic green vote will be up. Brandt is safe, and batman could be interesting. Feeney is an uncharismatic creep, and despite the ballot stuffing he’ll undoubtedly do, I predict he’ll need to go to preferences. He’ll win, but his margin will decline, and Bhatal will take him out in 2016.
In actual fact George and James are the favourites. Both have disadvantages – George is very dull and unfashionable, and the last James had to be deposed when he tried to make England Catholic. What’s wrong with Edward, I ask? A fine old genuinely English name, and there’s already been eight of them.
bemused @ 866
I think you will find that Crean supported Geoff Lake in the Hotham pre-selection.
Nope King Kevin just sounds gay.
Dodi is popular pick on names baby will not be named.
They could call him “The Artist formerly known as” or Charming, but yes Davidwh I like Kong.
[I think you will find that Crean supported Geoff Lake in the Hotham pre-selection.]
Of course he did. Lake is NUW, which is Crean’s old union. And Crean has no liking for Shorten.
‘Zog’ hasn’t been used for a while.
Given that Britain will probably be a republic before us, I think he prince should be named Bruce or Darryl, Wayne or Barry. He’ll be our king, not theirs. King bazza the first sounds good to me.
How about Nelson?
A nod to the soon to pass Nelson Mandela, and the English boat chap from history.
But ‘Rukirabasaija Oyo Nyimba Kabamba Iguru Rukidi IV’ is taken.
King Wally works for me and we already have the statute here in QLD.
James II had a healthy head of hair
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=king+james+11&client=safari&hl=en&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=p2LuUb3kOeW8iAefwIDQBA&ved=0CFYQiR4&biw=768&bih=928&sei=yWLuUZ63LJHakgWUhIGYBg#biv=i%7C5%3Bd%7CRkQSpeUFnB8s-M%3A
Prince Shane? After the greatest hero of the modern era?
[sustainable future]
Until the PNG announcement I was of the view that the Green vote would go down this year, since Milne has all the electoral appeal of that maths teacher who tried to make you learn trigonometry. I agree that PNG will cause some Labor lefties to go back to the Greens, but probably only enough to maintain their 2010 vote, not improve it.
You underestimate Feeney, he’s a very smart guy and also very funny. I think we will go down well in Batman, and that the Greens will come third. Anyway, they’ll never win it on the current boundaries, because they have no support north of Bell St. Working class voters won’t vote for people who want to make them wear clogs and eat tofu.
[James II had a healthy head of hair]
It was a wig.
feeney@904
I am getting lost…
Lake was complaining about one of the returning Officers who I know supported Crean in the past.
So there has been a bit of switching going on.
As I said earlier, I wasn’t overly impressed by either candidate and we should be able to do better in a safe seat. Someone of Mark Dreyfus standard perhaps.
So we have the full name Shane Bazza Wally Kong Windsor aka King Kong.
They could go with Collingwood. But, then everyone would know he’s a bastard Prince.
Psephos@908
Lake is a lawyer.
I didn’t know NUW represented lawyers. 😐
[ Someone of Mark Dreyfus standard perhaps.]
The joke being that Dreyfus actually lost his local ballot against the numty sitting member Corcoran, who was good at branch-stacking if nothing else. He was only endorsed because he had the (factional) numbers on the POSC. So if the “all power to the branchies” principle had been applied, Dreyfus would not have got the seat.
Davidwh 919
We have a winner.
Obeid and MacDonald. Filthy Labor scum making a mockery of Criminal Justice Commission hearings. Thomson guilty as sin. Filthy, corrupt immoral ALP members.
ALP members in this room should admit the shame of the list of ministers found to be liars, corrupt, having hands in honey pots. Factional bosses pulling the strings still in the Labor party.
How do you guys manage to wash your hands of this. Your party is sick, dysfunctional and morally bankrupt.
Kevin Rudd does yet another backflip that you cultists somehow have to justify as OK because ‘the Labor party can’t possibly be wrong.. only the coalition can be wrong’.
Kevin, Julia, Albo, Emerson, Swan, Wong all railed vitriol on Howard’s pacific solution and Rudd trumps it with the biggest lurch to the right yet… to save the furniture in Western Sydney and support Sussex St?
In the words of Derryn Hinch: Shame, ALP, Shame!
Your cult is now officially morally bankrupt.
[I didn’t know NUW represented lawyers.]
No, but lawyers represent them. That’s what lawyers are for.
[James II had a healthy head of hair
It was a wig.]
A “full bottom wig”, a white/ish & more simplistic version of which is still worn during ceremonial occasions of state (UK) & in legal circles.
One of those terms which amuse high school kids no end.
Whodaa thunk, Crean’s a lawyer too.
“Crean was educated at Middle Park Central School, Melbourne High School and Monash University where he graduated with degrees in economics and law (BEc 1970, LLB 1972[6]).”
Psephos@922
Yes, branches in many areas are corrupted by branch stacking and most current Victorian MPs are beneficiaries of it.
I loathe it but no-one has ever figured out how to stop it. The only hope I see is a much larger membership but that does not seem likely.
Baby between thunder and lightning.
http://trendsmap.com/local/gb/london
Greensborough Growler@927
Parliament is infested with them.
michael o’connor @michael47818552 1m
Billboard in WA placed on Liberal candidates office. #letsspreaditaround campaign scores direct hit. #AusUnions pic.twitter.com/IkM36kQUDy
Retweeted by Possum Comitatus
Psephos@925
Oh I see. And then the lawyers get repaid by pre-selections. 👿
This Bible Telemovie on Win looks mega-cheapo
What happened to the good old days of Ben-Hur multi-million dollar mega budgets?
Law making body contain lots of people who are trained in law. What a disaster.
Not all people with law degrees are lawyers. And not all lawyers practice.
[Thomson guilty as sin. Filthy, corrupt immoral ALP members.
ALP members in this room should admit the shame of the list of ministers found to be liars, corrupt, having hands in honey pots. Factional bosses pulling the strings still in the Labor party.
How do you guys manage to wash your hands of this. Your party is sick, dysfunctional and morally bankrupt.
Kevin Rudd does yet another backflip that you cultists somehow have to justify as OK because ‘the Labor party can’t possibly be wrong.. only the coalition can be wrong’.
Kevin, Julia, Albo, Emerson, Swan, Wong all railed vitriol on Howard’s pacific solution and Rudd trumps it with the biggest lurch to the right yet… to save the furniture in Western Sydney and support Sussex St?]
Blue pill clearly taking an overdose tonight taking on the role of judge jury and executioner. ever heard of the concept of innocent until proven guilty? Also I take it you wash your hands of innocent children being drowned at sea by morally bankrupt people smugglers?
Crean was actually a union offial with a law degree, not quite the same thing. I don’t think he actually practised law.
But in fact lawyers tend to make good MPs – same skill set.
It’s common (but not universal) practice for Islamic boys to be given a religious AND a personal name. ‘Muhammad’ etc happens to be the standard religious name. I find it hard to believe the Daily Mail is if ignorant of this; so the story is worse than a best up.
As for Mr Tisme, I guess he has no inkling of the original concept of ‘Christian’ names.
And a few generations ago would be ranting against Mary being the top girls’ name, given the risk of overrun by those bleeding, breeding Catholics…
Psephos@916
I think their vote will still go down substantially, though not quite as much as otherwise.
[No, but lawyers represent them. That’s what lawyers are for.]
It isn’t all we are for we lawyers are very useful across almost all areas.
Too many lawyers – barely enough.
Psephos
Posted Tuesday, July 23, 2013 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
Someone of Mark Dreyfus standard perhaps.
The joke being that Dreyfus actually lost his local ballot against the numty sitting member Corcoran, who was good at branch-stacking if nothing else. He was only endorsed because he had the (factional) numbers on the POSC. So if the “all power to the branchies” principle had been applied, Dreyfus would not have got the seat.
———————————————————
Morrison and the faceless men of the Liberal Party destroyed Towke to ensure Morrisons pre-selection.
Destroyed his character and put his Mum in hospital. Towke sued and won his case against News Ltd
Sean,
Well, if you call something “The Greatest Story ever Told”, then by definition, everything else has to be downhill from there!
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, July 23, 2013 at 9:27 pm | Permalink
This Bible Telemovie on Win looks mega-cheapo
What happened to the good old days of Ben-Hur multi-million dollar mega budgets?
——————————————————
Mega -buck movies about the Bible went down hill when it was found that they were making a movie about an invisible fictional characters
I think the kid should be named “Taylor Swift’s Future Boyfriend”
[But in fact lawyers tend to make good MPs – same skill set.]
They’ve happy to argue any position, and will happily support the opposite the day after.
[Well, if you call something “The Greatest Story ever Told”, then by definition, everything else has to be downhill from there!]
That movie is BLOODY BORING!
Nicholas Ray’s King of King’s is much better.
Ray was a Jew who understood Christ better.
Showsy,
Oh, I don’t necesarily agree.
John Wayne as a Roman Centurion with the classic line, “Truly this man was the Son of God” has an immotal resonance to inspire all through the ages.
FORGET THE ROYAL BABY…
How good is that Hospital Front Door. It’s a double wooden door with frosted glass panes. Adourned with two big brass handles for opening and closing same.
It must be important because everytime I look at the TV I see live footage of it.
The doors even have a police guard.
[How do you guys manage to wash your hands of this. Your party is sick, dysfunctional and morally bankrupt.]
It’s like a footy team for them.
They’ll wear the colours during the good times, they’ll wear the colours during the hard times, they’ll wear the colours during the corrupt times.
And when their footy team does things that make them ashamed like the PNG solution, they’ll talk about something a different footy team did over a decade ago to try and make themselves feel better.
Seen it all before
[FORGET THE ROYAL BABY…]
On names, I still think they are missing a golden opportunity not to give the boy a truly memorable name. Hubertus or Amaury are my choices.
“@profsarahj: I reckon! RT @JenBrockie: Disturbing picture of #Manus being painted on @DatelineSBS now.”
This is going to continue debate for another week