Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48 after a dead heat a fortnight ago, but there’s some encouragement for Labor in an extra question on asylum seeker policy.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition leading 52-48, after a dead heat a fortnight ago. This comes off a three-point lift in the Coalition primary vote to 45%, with Labor down a point to 37% and the Greens up one to 10%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, which blew out from 49-35 in his first poll to 53-31 in his second, is roughly back where it started at 50-34. Rudd’s approval ratings have followed a similar course over the three polls, this one showing approval down a point to 42% and disapproval up five to 41%, while Tony Abbott is steady at 35% and 56%. However, the Prime Minister can take solace in a finding that 26% now consider Labor the past party to deal with asylum seekers, up six since the question was last asked, with the Coalition plummeting 14 points to 33%.

Earlier today we had the regular weekly Morgan poll, which was little changed on last time with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There was actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size).

Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

UPDATE: And here it is – Labor has pared back a point on two-party preferred to now trail 51-49, from primary votes of 39% for Labor (steady), 45% for the Coalition (down one) and 7% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are a semi-regular series on important election issues (“Australian jobs and protection of local industries” being up five points on a month ago), best party to handle them (across the board improvement for Labor in the wake of the leadership change), carbon pricing (45% support the move to an ETS with 29% opposed, while support for the “tax” scheme is down to 37% support with 48% opposed compared with 43% each in May – these being relatively supportive results on account of a question which explains it’s industries that pay the tax). Sixty-two per cent said they would support a referendum on recognising Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution with only 16% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,143 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 17 of 23
1 16 17 18 23
  1. ruawake

    [
    Newman can’t fund literary awards but can fund medallions for all babies born in Qld today. 🙁 ]
    Crikey, if he can cut the literary awards and fund goat races then such a medallion is easy peasy.

    [

    Funding for one of the state’s top literary awards has been cut, but the government body Events Queensland will provide the Barcaldine Goat Races and Expo with $15,000 so organisers can promote the unusual event outside the central Queensland town.]
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/breaking-news/qld-govt-funds-goat-races/story-e6freono-1226421751431

  2. Instead of relying on a newspaper to find the most popular names a search of real websites finds that it varies very much from country to country, region to region.

  3. Dio
    [Socrates
    I disagree. I think it’s up to refugee to make their own decision about whether taking the 4% risk of drowning is worth it. They may well have a higher risk of death than that from disease or malnutrition where they are.]
    I probably didn’t fully spell out my logic as I did in some other posts on the weekend. The point is, if they are able to fly to Indonesia, they could fly to many places. Even in Indonesia or Pakistan, Moslem refugees are not at risk. They may be poor, but not in physical danger. The comparison is not between boat crossing risks and living in Afghanistan or Syria, but between a boat crossing and staying in Indonesia or any other country they can fly to. Clearly, 4% of moslem refugees in these other places are not dying. The civilian death rate in Syria is not that high. So this is not about reducing danger.

    I think the reality is that these people are taking a conscious risk not to flee danger (they have already done that) but to get a better life in a richer country. IMO this is about poverty and inequality, not danger. Seeking a better life is entirely legitimate, and poverty and inequality are both far too large in the world. But once that conclusion is reached, there are many groups of poor in the world who would like to move to Australia. Who do we choose? Are they poorer than those in Sub-Saharan Africa? North Koreans are in great need and often persecuted, but lack the ability to fly here.

    If you give preference to one group, with a fixed humanitarian intake, the others miss out. So there is a real justice question here, that has been glossed over. Letting every boat arrival in does mean that others miss out, since the boat arrival numbers are now sufficient to fill the entire humanitarian intake. Unless you assume unlimited resources, which is absurd, any policy you adopt makes some worse off.

    This is not to say PNG is a “good” option. But I now think it is the least bad option at present. There is no option that makes nobody worse off.

  4. Psephis

    Not so sure about Hugh – it is one of those names that appear Norman but were readily adopted by Celts because of similarity to existing names.

    The Germanic equivalents were usually double barreled eg Hubert.

  5. it is amusing some here think rudd is egotistical and puts himself before party. i dont happen to think that is true – but will not elaborate now – however abbott is pure, in ambition and self interest. does anyone think he believe anything in particular, except the machiavellian exercise in power grabbing which has prostituted this country for years. we still live in the agenda of howard/abbott – rudd did not need to act so dramatically so quickly he was ocmplicatedly his fresh start – campaign promises on carbon and alp were enough, and a deft, lower key approach on boat migrants without copying abbott propganda would have done trick. hope it works

  6. GG @6.26pm I’ve said it before, Rudd’s preference will be to run until late November when he will pass Julia Gillard’s term as PM.

    Rudd was sworn in as PM for the first time on 3/12/2007. He won’t overtake Julia’s time in office until December 7. To do that he needs to win this year’s election.

  7. OMG Sick to the back teeth with the royal baby over here in UK(fortunately my friends are republicans) so though I would read PB for a bit of sane comment (excluding baby Sean of course) and what do I, names of the royal baby etc etc. Think I will go and play computer games :devil:

  8. Geoffrey I agree,, abbott has not stopped for as long as I can remember , putting himself first and foremost
    you only have to think of all the shops business places he has gone to and thinks he is part of.
    so is he a jack of all trades and master of none.

    the very first stunt, was ironing may be his first ever, feel of the iron,,, then it was followed by sewing machine if you missed that one it was here, then fishing, and stacking fruit boxes, wearing an army uniform that looked like a space suit, and so much more
    o and the truck driving exercise, that was a classic

    now there s an ego,

  9. The UN refuses to address the population pressures that have helped generate 45,000,000 refugees in our lifetime.

    ‘fleeing natural disaster’ qualifies you for refugee status.

    Is overpopulation a natural disaster?

    The UN runs a global refugee industrial complex.

    But with respect to refugees, is the UN a perpetual motion machine.

  10. Hugh was the Norman-French rendering of the Germanic name Hugo, which is of Franconian origin. In various spellings (Hue, Hughes, Hugues) it’s a common French name. It was brought to England by the Norman conquest.

    My vote would be for Jarrod. Or Jarryd, Jarrad or Jarrid. The correct Hebrew spelling is Jared but no-one seems to use that.

  11. Forget the election date stuff Gary Morgan has called it. 🙂

    [Gary Morgan says:
    “This special SMS Morgan Poll shows the Rudd Government’s ‘PNG Solution’ has provided an immediate boost to the Government’s border protection credentials as we move towards a Federal Election. Now a small majority of Australian electors (50.5%, up 4.5% in a week) say the ALP would ‘do a better job handling the arrival of asylum seekers by boat’ compared to 49.5% (down 4.5%) who say the L-NP would do a better job.
    “The issue of asylum seekers has long been a huge problem for the Rudd/ Gillard Governments and Kevin Rudd’s decision to announce that all asylum seekers arriving here by boat will be processed offshore in PNG and those asylum seekers found to be genuine refugees will be resettled in PNG and other ‘third’ countries has appeared to neutralise the contentious issue in the run-up to the Federal Election – expected to be announced within the next week for August 31, 2013.]

  12. Tisme you eejit

    (The next King of Australia has been born, you should be excited)

    Charles will be the next KOA should the country not become a republic when betty drops off the twig, then Will then this one.Wont be in my lifetime and you’ll possibly have grown to maturity IF IT EVER HAPPENS.

  13. Looking at the Nauru/Manus situation it seems that the RuddAbbott Government will have to stop thinking ‘camps’ and ‘detention centres’ and start thinking ‘jails’ with a disporportionate proportion in solitary to stop them standing over or harming others.

    IMHO, eventually Australia will have to run these places in Australia in order to be able ensure the safety of the inmates.

    Many of the inmates, by force of policy and circumstances, will become ‘lifers’. Eventually, the essential characteristic of being a lifer is that you have nothing at all left to lose.

  14. So, is the newspoll consensus that Labor lost some on the left (but where will they go) and is still waiting for some voters to the right to now take a second look at labor?

  15. What about Blanket or Apple? These are popular names with celebrities. Let’s face it, the royal family is one big celebrity family!

  16. I like the suggestion I heard somewhere today that the prince should be named Stuart Broad for the first few months of his life, given that he certainly won’t walk.

  17. Borewar, you still don’t get it, do you, you silly old thing? The whole idea is that people NOT go to PNG. The whole idea is that they not come at all.

Comments Page 17 of 23
1 16 17 18 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *