Seats of the week: Forde and Herbert

A double feature encompassing two of the LNP-held seats which Labor is eyeing greedily on the back of its Queensland poll resurgence.

UPDATE (Morgan): The weekly Morgan poll is little changed on last time, with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There is actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size). We will surely have Newspoll along later this evening, while the regular Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.

Two for the price of one this week as I scramble to catch up with the Queensland seats suddenly deemed in play under Kevin Rudd 2.0 …

Seat of the week #1: Forde

Straddling the southern edge of Brisbane, Forde was one of a number of Queensland seats which fell Labor’s way under Kevin Rudd’s leadership at the 2007 election, only to be lost again in the wake of his demise three years later. The electorate contains the eastern part of the municipality of Logan City around Beenleigh and extends southwards along the Pacific Motorway to accommodate, somewhat awkwardly, the rapidly growing suburb of Upper Coomera at the interior northern edge of the Gold Coast. The latter area was acquired in the redistribution which preceded the 2010 election, when Forde provided the new seat of Wright with about a third of its voters in rural territories extending to the New South Wales border.

Forde was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, at which time it covered Brisbane’s outer south-west. Liberal candidate David Watson won the seat on its debut by 43 votes, but was unseated after a single term at the 1987 election by Labor’s Mary Crawford. Watson would later return to politics in the state parliament, eventually leading the Liberal Party into a disastrous result at the 2001 election. Crawford meanwhile built up a handy margin on the back of swings in 1990 and 1993, before a punishing redistribution pulled the seat into the rural Beaudesert region on the New South Wales border. Thwarted in a bid to be reassigned to an outer suburban seat, in part as a consequence of the party’s determination to accommodate Kevin Rudd in Griffith, Crawford was left with no buffer to defend herself against the savage swing that hit Labor across Queensland, which struck in Forde to the tune of 9.6%.

Forde was then held for the Liberals throughout the Howard years by Kay Elson, who retained comfortable margins in 1998 and 2001 before enjoying a further 5.9% boost in 2004. Elson’s retirement at the 2007 election was presumably a factor behind the spectacular 14.4% swing to Labor, making the seat one of three in Queensland where Labor was able to overhaul double-digit Coalition margins. It was then held for a term by Brett Raguse, a former teacher, local newspaper publisher and TAFE college director who had more recently worked as an adviser to state ministers associated with the AWU/Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right. The aforementioned redistribution improved Raguse’s margin from 2.9% to 3.4%, but this proved insufficient at the 2010 election in the face of what by Queensland standards was a fairly typical swing of 5.0%.

The seat has since been held for the LNP by Bert van Manen, a financial planner from Slacks Creek who had run as the Family First candidate for Rankin in 2007. Van Manen’s Labor opponent at the coming election is Des Hardman, a radiographer at Logan Hospital. Brett Raguse meanwhile re-emerged as a candidate for the preselection to succeed Craig Emerson in the neighbouring seat of Rankin, in which he was narrowly unsuccessful despite claiming support from Kevin Rudd.

Seat of the week #2: Herbert

The Townsville-based electorate of Herbert has been in conservative hands without interruption since 1996, although it has been highly marginal throughout that time. The seat has existed since federation, at which time it extended north to Cairns and south to Mackay. More recently it has covered central Townsville and a shifting aggregation of surrounding territory, the pre-2010 election redistribution having transferred the southern suburbs of Annandale and Wulguru to Dawson and added Deeragun and its northern coastal surrounds from Kennedy. The strongest booths for Labor are generally around the town centre, while those in the outer suburbs tend to be more volatile as well as more conservative, having moved strongly with the statewide tides toward Labor in 2007 and against it in 2004 and 2010. Lavarack Barracks makes the electorate highly sensitive to defence issues, with the sector accounting for about one in eight jobs in the electorate. Presumably as a consequence, the electorate is unusually youthful, the median age of 32 being four years lower than for any other seat in regional Queensland.

Herbert was a working class and Labor seat for much of its history, being in Labor hands until the 1960s and turning in a 34.2% vote for Communist Party candidate Frederick Paterson in 1943 (Paterson went on to win the state seat of Bowen the following year, the only such success for a Communist candidate in Australian history). A watershed moment came with the victory of Liberal candidate Robert Bonnett in the 1966 landslide, which was followed by further Liberal swings against the trend of the 1969 and 1972 elections. The seat came back on Labor’s radar after the 1980 election, when their candidate Ted Lindsay succeeded in reducing the Liberal margin to below 1%. Lindsay went one better when he ran again in 1983, gaining the seat with a 3.7% swing and retaining it throughout the Hawke-Keating years. Together with most of his Queensland Labor colleagues he was unseated at the 1996 election, when unrelated Liberal candidate Peter Lindsay won off a 9.0% swing. Ted Lindsay came within 160 votes of pulling off a comeback in 1998, before Peter Lindsay consolidated with swings of 1.5% in 2001 and 4.7% in 2004. He survived another close shave by 343 votes in 2007, a swing to Labor of 5.9% being slightly below a statewide 7.5% which cost the Coalition eight seats.

Lindsay bowed out at the 2010 election and was succeeded as candidate for the Liberal National Party by Ewen Jones, an auctioneer for local real estate agency Ferry Property. Jones’s Labor opponent was Tony Mooney, who served for nearly two decades as mayor of Townsville and earned a footnote in Australian political history when his failure to win the 1996 Mundingburra by-election for Labor led to the downfall of the Goss government. Perhaps reflecting the loss of Lindsay’s personal vote, Jones picked up what by Queensland standards was a modest swing of 2.2%, which was nonetheless enough to secure his hold on a seat which the redistribution had made, by the narrowest of margins, notionally Labor. Jones’s Labor opponent this time is Cathy O’Toole, a former chief executive of a disability employment service and member of the Left faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,266 comments on “Seats of the week: Forde and Herbert”

Comments Page 42 of 46
1 … 41 42 43 … 46

  1. It’s amazing how far down the path of inhumanity and authoritarianism mere political partisanship can take people. The refugee issue is a stark example. Some even allow themselves to throw out our basic individual protections to give a political party the right to do what it wants in government, however unfair, unethical, and illegal. Quite scary really, but important to know.

  2. Darren Laver@1933

    Maybe I’m late to the party but can anyone tell me why the Gremlins are fed at eight o’clock here?

    by This little black duck on Jul 22, 2013 at 8:08 pm


    Where is don when you need him? He needs to send another rocket up Crikey to get this bug sorted out! It is a real inconvenience out here in voter land.

    Thanks Darren – but this eight pm bug, while all too real for the denizens such as you and me is far too subtle for the hamsters at Crikey, I fear.

    Musrum and his helpers have pretty much made the blog very useable, and have addressed all the problems which the Crikey hamsters should have addressed themselves.

    The lack of return to a sensible part of the page after posting is one thing that the hamsters might be able to fix, with a little encouragement from a cattle prod and possibly a thumbscrew or two, but the eight pm bug would be far too ineffable a proposition for the limited talents of the hamsters.

  3. jv

    ‘It’s amazing how far down the path of inhumanity and authoritarianism mere political partisanship can take people. The refugee issue is a stark example. Some even allow themselves to throw out our basic individual protections to give a political party the right to do what it wants in government, however unfair, unethical, and illegal. Quite scary really, but important to know.’

    Four legs can be quite good in their own way. But then so can two legs.

    We all have our pet peeves, some justified some not, some in between.

    My pet peeve is people who do all care and no responsibility criticising those who are trying to make something or other work.

  6. Boerwar@2043


    dave

    Did you see the scrubfowl which hatch their eggs using geological heat?

    When was this, if you don’t mind?

    Were you working for the missionaries or for the government?

    If you don’t want to answer, I would understand.

    Didn’t see any scrub fowl. Wasn’t looking for them really.

    It was after mid 1975. I was working for a company, don’t want to say more for privacy. PNG was really a small place and people knew everyone else like a country town, well back then anyway.

    howards family btw was involved in plantation ownership there after WW2 which has been covered and debated upon in our media over the years.

  7. [The lack of return to a sensible part of the page after posting is one thing that the hamsters might be able to fix, with a little encouragement from a cattle prod and possibly a thumbscrew or two, but the eight pm bug would be far too ineffable a proposition for the limited talents of the hamsters.]

    Thanks, I feared as much! it is infuriating that a simple refresh of the last comment page shunts one back to page 1 every time! it is like a Monopoly game and continually landing on “Go To Jail”

  9. [Kevin Rudd reforms the rules and now Kate is in Labor.]

    Who? Kate Ellis has been ALP for as long as I recall.

  11. [It’s amazing how far down the path of inhumanity and authoritarianism mere political partisanship can take people. The refugee issue is a stark example. Some even allow themselves to throw out our basic individual protections to give a political party the right to do what it wants in government, however unfair, unethical, and illegal. Quite scary really, but important to know.]

    you are obviously a lawyer and have a vested interest here. All care, no responsibility.

    at least we agree about the Rudd reforms and his becoming eternal leader.

  12. [Abbott will stay the course, Turnbull will be quiet, Rudd will implode.]
    Which course is Abbott staying?

    He has tried about 5 different courses in the last 3 days.

  13. jaundiced view

    Again, what did you EXPECT Rudd to do about asylum seekers while you were tirelessly advocating his return?

    Or did the obvious policy implications simply not enter your mind?

    Anyway, look on the bright side, your man won in the end. Congrats.:3

  15. dave@2039

    BW – Years ago when I was young, silly and fit , amongst other things, I climbed the active volcano on Kar Kar Island off the North Coast of Madang.

    We got a guide from a village took half a day or so to get up there 1839 metres. The main caldera is almost perfectly circular 3.2 km in diameter with vertical walls 300 m high.

    Anyway we camped in a bush hut overnight on the edge of the main caldera, couple of bottles of scotch, hugh tropical electrical storm overnight massive downpour etc, sounded as if the volcano was erupting.

    It had done so a few years earlier and did so a few years after we were there, killing 2 vulcanologist.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karkar_Island

    Also hiked all over the volcanoes of Rabual before they blew and destroy a beautiful, terrific tropical town of Rabual. A serious loss.

    Oh to be young, fit and silly again.

    Great Days!

    Half a day?

    Oh, to be that fit and strong! 200 metres an hour is the best I can do these days. On a good day, with the wind behind me.

    But the older I get, the better I used to be!

  22. [I’m so over boats.]

    it will be another positive side effect of the PNG arrangement’s stopping the boats that it will no longer be the political equivalent of ‘sex’ to sell opinion shows like the trashy Qanda.

    will be glad to hear the end of boatism, quite frankly. Let Labor govern for the glory of Australia.

  24. Gee, Sinodinos gives me the screaming heebie jeebies, he is a very scary man…

    It’s the first time I’ve seen him and I’m scared…

  25. Don 🙂

    Heavy jungle growth, slippery etc but we came down a lot quicker then we went up. 🙂

    Then there was a great dinner in Madang at ‘Smugglers Inn’ that night when we got back to Madang before going back to Moresby the next morning.

  27. [will be glad to hear the end of boatism, quite frankly.]

    I’m a tad more cynical than you in that I’ll believe the end of boatism when I see it.

  28. [Not to me, it doesn’t. Is this a mobile edition thing?]

    yes, mostly on mobile. bloody frustrating, to be frank.

    Speaking of Frank, is Mr Calabrese going to be back for the campaign? He was a PB institution and would be welcomed back by most here.

    Regards

    Darren

  30. William Bowe@2070

    it is infuriating that a simple refresh of the last comment page shunts one back to page 1 every time!


    Not to me, it doesn’t. Is this a mobile edition thing?

    A refresh on a desktop computer works as expected on a mac running chrome.

    Automatic refresh after posting takes you to the top of the page you were on, which is annoying but a first world problem.

  34. Darren Laver

    I make no secret of my general field of work. But, no, my role is not ‘all care and no responsibility’. Why say that on the basis of nothing? In fact my work involves both concepts to a greatly accountable degree.

  35. guytaur

    “Shorten avoiding the question. Not a good look”

    They should really change the show’s name to Q.

  37. guytaur,

    Try taking off your green-tinted glasses now and again. You may see reality. Whether you are up to actually absorbing it, I don’t know.

  39. jv

    ‘By the way in NSW, and I assume other states, coroners are already appointed magistrates. They don’t ‘write their own costs’.’

    I do believe they have just had to delay the last big fire coronial in Victoria because there was not a room big enough to fit all the legals in it.

    Fire coronials are perpetual motion machines.

  44. [Space Kidette ‏@SpaceKidette 19s
    My PNG husband says ‘thanks for the insults guys’. Nice to know what you really think about us. #qanda]

  45. dave@2075

    Don

    Heavy jungle growth, slippery etc but we came down a lot quicker then we went up.

    Then there was a great dinner in Madang at ‘Smugglers Inn’ that night when we got back to Madang before going back to Moresby the next morning.

    I dips me lid. 😀

    I am still walking gamely in the gorges east of Armidale every second weekend or more often, but the ridges are feeling steeper and longer, though I suppose science would say they are the same. My mitochondria are not what they used to be. The ridges are 500 metres down, and believe me they are 500 metres back up again…….

  48. There is no way the PNG deal can be overturned by the courts.

    If somebody wants to do there money trying – ga hed!

  49. [It’s amazing how far down the path of inhumanity and authoritarianism mere political partisanship can take people. The refugee issue is a stark example. Some even allow themselves to throw out our basic individual protections to give a political party the right to do what it wants in government, however unfair, unethical, and illegal. Quite scary really, but important to know.]

    Perhaps you should seek asylum somewhere. Who has a suggestion as to where JV should seek asylum? What was the name of the planet run by anarchist feminists in Ursula Le Guin’s novels? Arakis?

  50. Boerwar

    The coroner’s main job is to find out what happened as much as possible causing all the deaths. With all those fires, that is going to be a large undertaking. It is all under legislation. If the parliament doesn’t think it is necessary, then it can close it down. However, I don’t think that would be very popular among victims’ families.

Comments Page 42 of 46
1 … 41 42 43 … 46

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *