UPDATE (Morgan): The weekly Morgan poll is little changed on last time, with Labor down half a point to 41.5%, the Coalition steady on 41%, and the Greens up two points to 9%. There is actually a slight move in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred as measured using preference flows from the previous election, presumably because of rounding, their lead up from 51.5-48.5 to 52-48. On respondent-allocated preferences, the lead is steady at 52.5-47.5. Regrettably, the poll does not come with state breakdowns, which keen observers among us had started to think would be a regular feature (as it surely should be with such a large sample size). We will surely have Newspoll along later this evening, while the regular Essential Research is delayed this week and will be along tomorrow.
Two for the price of one this week as I scramble to catch up with the Queensland seats suddenly deemed in play under Kevin Rudd 2.0 …
Seat of the week #1: Forde
Straddling the southern edge of Brisbane, Forde was one of a number of Queensland seats which fell Labor’s way under Kevin Rudd’s leadership at the 2007 election, only to be lost again in the wake of his demise three years later. The electorate contains the eastern part of the municipality of Logan City around Beenleigh and extends southwards along the Pacific Motorway to accommodate, somewhat awkwardly, the rapidly growing suburb of Upper Coomera at the interior northern edge of the Gold Coast. The latter area was acquired in the redistribution which preceded the 2010 election, when Forde provided the new seat of Wright with about a third of its voters in rural territories extending to the New South Wales border.
Forde was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, at which time it covered Brisbane’s outer south-west. Liberal candidate David Watson won the seat on its debut by 43 votes, but was unseated after a single term at the 1987 election by Labor’s Mary Crawford. Watson would later return to politics in the state parliament, eventually leading the Liberal Party into a disastrous result at the 2001 election. Crawford meanwhile built up a handy margin on the back of swings in 1990 and 1993, before a punishing redistribution pulled the seat into the rural Beaudesert region on the New South Wales border. Thwarted in a bid to be reassigned to an outer suburban seat, in part as a consequence of the party’s determination to accommodate Kevin Rudd in Griffith, Crawford was left with no buffer to defend herself against the savage swing that hit Labor across Queensland, which struck in Forde to the tune of 9.6%.
Forde was then held for the Liberals throughout the Howard years by Kay Elson, who retained comfortable margins in 1998 and 2001 before enjoying a further 5.9% boost in 2004. Elson’s retirement at the 2007 election was presumably a factor behind the spectacular 14.4% swing to Labor, making the seat one of three in Queensland where Labor was able to overhaul double-digit Coalition margins. It was then held for a term by Brett Raguse, a former teacher, local newspaper publisher and TAFE college director who had more recently worked as an adviser to state ministers associated with the AWU/Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right. The aforementioned redistribution improved Raguse’s margin from 2.9% to 3.4%, but this proved insufficient at the 2010 election in the face of what by Queensland standards was a fairly typical swing of 5.0%.
The seat has since been held for the LNP by Bert van Manen, a financial planner from Slacks Creek who had run as the Family First candidate for Rankin in 2007. Van Manen’s Labor opponent at the coming election is Des Hardman, a radiographer at Logan Hospital. Brett Raguse meanwhile re-emerged as a candidate for the preselection to succeed Craig Emerson in the neighbouring seat of Rankin, in which he was narrowly unsuccessful despite claiming support from Kevin Rudd.
Seat of the week #2: Herbert
The Townsville-based electorate of Herbert has been in conservative hands without interruption since 1996, although it has been highly marginal throughout that time. The seat has existed since federation, at which time it extended north to Cairns and south to Mackay. More recently it has covered central Townsville and a shifting aggregation of surrounding territory, the pre-2010 election redistribution having transferred the southern suburbs of Annandale and Wulguru to Dawson and added Deeragun and its northern coastal surrounds from Kennedy. The strongest booths for Labor are generally around the town centre, while those in the outer suburbs tend to be more volatile as well as more conservative, having moved strongly with the statewide tides toward Labor in 2007 and against it in 2004 and 2010. Lavarack Barracks makes the electorate highly sensitive to defence issues, with the sector accounting for about one in eight jobs in the electorate. Presumably as a consequence, the electorate is unusually youthful, the median age of 32 being four years lower than for any other seat in regional Queensland.
Herbert was a working class and Labor seat for much of its history, being in Labor hands until the 1960s and turning in a 34.2% vote for Communist Party candidate Frederick Paterson in 1943 (Paterson went on to win the state seat of Bowen the following year, the only such success for a Communist candidate in Australian history). A watershed moment came with the victory of Liberal candidate Robert Bonnett in the 1966 landslide, which was followed by further Liberal swings against the trend of the 1969 and 1972 elections. The seat came back on Labor’s radar after the 1980 election, when their candidate Ted Lindsay succeeded in reducing the Liberal margin to below 1%. Lindsay went one better when he ran again in 1983, gaining the seat with a 3.7% swing and retaining it throughout the Hawke-Keating years. Together with most of his Queensland Labor colleagues he was unseated at the 1996 election, when unrelated Liberal candidate Peter Lindsay won off a 9.0% swing. Ted Lindsay came within 160 votes of pulling off a comeback in 1998, before Peter Lindsay consolidated with swings of 1.5% in 2001 and 4.7% in 2004. He survived another close shave by 343 votes in 2007, a swing to Labor of 5.9% being slightly below a statewide 7.5% which cost the Coalition eight seats.
Lindsay bowed out at the 2010 election and was succeeded as candidate for the Liberal National Party by Ewen Jones, an auctioneer for local real estate agency Ferry Property. Jones’s Labor opponent was Tony Mooney, who served for nearly two decades as mayor of Townsville and earned a footnote in Australian political history when his failure to win the 1996 Mundingburra by-election for Labor led to the downfall of the Goss government. Perhaps reflecting the loss of Lindsay’s personal vote, Jones picked up what by Queensland standards was a modest swing of 2.2%, which was nonetheless enough to secure his hold on a seat which the redistribution had made, by the narrowest of margins, notionally Labor. Jones’s Labor opponent this time is Cathy O’Toole, a former chief executive of a disability employment service and member of the Left faction.
Socrates
Don’t worry about it… after spending several years in Hong Kong and obsessively following all things tropical cyclone related I know a little bit TOO much about the subject.:p
a
It concentrates the mind.
I am due in the Philippines next week and am already keeping an eye on Typhoon2000.
BW
David Manne along with many others, like somone close to me, gives a voice to those who have none and for little reward. I am glad you admire it. Most do.
Coroners’ roles are indeed similar. They are there for the families who have nothing but memories and questions and nowhere to go. Sure, they overreach on the recommendation front but their recommendations are rarely taken up unless it is in the interest of the body at fault to do so.
Sometimes they do more. Phuong Ngo, John Newman’s assassin, was undone, initially, by the coroner.
dave
Could I substitute a tsunami on Manus for my cyclone scenario?
dave
Em e go finish
or
Em e go pinis?
I suppose theoretically there is still time for Mevin Rudd to visit the GG tonight and call an August 24 election but I don’t think that will happen.
Whatever the date is, Mr Abbott will impugn the worst possible motives and the Murdocracy will chime in on cue. And the ABC will echo the Murdoch tabloids.
Early = not give the voters time to think too deeply about Rudd II initiatives
Late = desperately clinging onto power
‘On time’ (Sept 14) – well, why all the stuffing around? Instability caused by election speculation wrecked the economy and hurt fluffy baby animals (also applies to Early and Late).
So Kevin wi go for whatever date seems most likely to maximise his chances about a month or so out, with the shortest official campaign period allowable.
shellbell
‘Coroners’ roles are indeed similar. They are there for the families who have nothing but memories and questions and nowhere to go. Sure, they overreach on the recommendation front but their recommendations are rarely taken up unless it is in the interest of the body at fault to do so.’
One of my gripes is that the appear to be able to write their own costs. The big fire coronials, IMHO, are a scandal. The buggers keep coming up with virtually the same recommendations.
Boerwar@2004
Not much volcanic activity that far our as far as I’m aware.
dave
Oh, OK. It is back to the Margaret Mead-inspired Ghost Dance.
Will someone point me to where a lawyer has the interests of his client better than those of his own at heart? Rumpole doesn’t count.
Twaddle
Thanks. I have lived in north Qld and knew the frequency gets higher as you go north but forgot it drops to zero at the equator itself.
If it is the end of the month then I would miss most of the campaign.
This would, of course, be entirely appropriate for the sole founding member of the Informal Party.
I would not have to listen to all the lies, to observe the lack of integrity, or to witness the crass 180 degree policy reversals that litter our political landscape like so many rotting fish.
[David Manne along with many others, like somone close to me, gives a voice to those who have none and for little reward. I am glad you admire it. Most do.]
sorry, but Mr Manne doesn’t give a fig about those without a voice, just those who get here and then have this magical thing called ‘standing’.
Mr Manne is entitled to his political opinions, I just wish he’d run for office and seek popular support for them rather than using the courts to implement them.
The average voiceless citizen has no chance of effecting their political opinions into reality and certainly does not have the High Court as their plaything (aka “dress ups for grown ups” as some said recently here) to do so.
[Will someone point me to where a lawyer has the interests of his client better than those of his own at heart? ]
Presumably you aren’t referring to corporate lawyers, who often seem more interested in their wallets than their hearts.
Boerwar@2005
True – kept to english so that people knew what I was saying.
For those interested in pigeon –
Tripela Liklik Pik (Three Little Pigs)
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2007/09/18/2036578.htm
or
Liklik Retpela hat (Little Red Riding Hood)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K55HcKMLnI
Righto guys. Final Newspoll predictions.
I’m going to say 52-48 Coalition, but no improvement in Abbott’s personal ratings or PPM.
Labor to lose 3 on the Primary, 2 of them to the Greens and 1 to Coalition.
No Turnbull figures because they’re soft.
TLBD
Motivation can be a complex matter but I think we are sort of saying that David Manne et al were demonstrating in relation to Malaysia that which you seek.
I’m not sure about Turnbull. He has been all over the shop lately and i think Minchin would almost make sure that he does not become leader again.
He was going to leave politics before the last election but i think he has one burning ambition after being shafted by Abbott
I don’t think he would accept leadership now with probably no time to spruke any policies plus the Minchin factor.
I honestly think he is going to make sure that Abbott gets the biggest shafting of his political career.
Abbott can not afford to tell him to STFU being so close to the election as it would create lots of public disunity, hence Malcolm is going on all these shows and interviews and openly ridiculing Abbott and idiot followers.
I think Malcolm will have great joy in destroying Abbotts career as payback for stabbing him in the back.
He will then find some personal family reasons to retire from politics about a year after the election.
I am sure he would have liked to have been PM but i don’t see it happening.
He would be worse than Abbott as well imho as far as sticking it up the workers etc.
gc
Oh why not?
50/50 2PP
Labor down a point; Greens up two points; Coalition down a point; others starting to break for the majors.
Rudd v Abbott: slight slide against Rudd.
Impure guesswork, of course.
[I would not have to listen to all the lies, to observe the lack of integrity, or to witness the crass 180 degree policy reversals that litter our political landscape like so many rotting fish.]
Just imagine another 2 more months of it if the govt decides on an October election. 🙁
Gaffhook
Interesting. There is no honour amongst democracy thieves.
Gaffhook – agree with much of that, but if Labor win I can see him sticking around for LOTO in the hope of having a crack in 2016. The conservative right won’t have a leg to stand on if they stuff this one up.
If Abbott wins, I see him retiring mid term.
[gc
Oh why not?
50/50 2PP
Labor down a point; Greens up two points; Coalition down a point; others starting to break for the majors.
Rudd v Abbott: slight slide against Rudd.
Impure guesswork, of course.]
What are your internals saying in terms of the Informal Party? 3 percent?
Gaffhook:
I will be delighted if Turnbull starts doing Peoples Princess routine on Abbott.
confessions
We mortals know that, like skipping stones, you can only walk on water for so long. All his Party colleagues recognize this and are urging the end of August.
Of course He knows that He walk on water for as long as He feels like it.
So end August is not a foregone conclusion.
If it was good for the Libs it would have been out last night.
(ducks)
My post above should read:
*but no meaningful improvement in Abbott’s personal ratings or PPM (ie. 1 or 2 points either way)
[One of my gripes is that the appear to be able to write their own costs. The big fire coronials, IMHO, are a scandal. The buggers keep coming up with virtually the same recommendations.]
P&O was an egregious example
51/49 to the ALP. Because i want to see :monkey: have apoplexy. 🙂
bemused@1797
Could not agree more.
The Greens seem to live in a parallel universe where unicorns dwell. The lion lies down with the lamb, and all is sweetness and light.
I cannot stand PM Rudd, and I don’t trust him as far as I can kick him, but the policy of sending all AS to PNG should stop the boats once and for all.
It will give some hope to those in refugee camps hoping to get to Oz by ‘the appropriate channels’. The situation pre PNG was one which was inexorably heading towards all of our refugee intake being from those who chose to come by leaky boat.
Boerwar:
There is that.
[If it was good for the Libs it would have been out last night.
(ducks)]
Naughty boy, Fulvio! but probably correct! *runs*
Boerwar,
I think Mr Manne has enough riches to allow himself to indulge his crusades. Yes Minister waxes copiously on this particular aspect of sociology.
DL
‘What are your internals saying in terms of the Informal Party? 3 percent?’
My tummy was just rumbling. *laughs*
The internals are very, very unreliable, but I have little doubt that they have the capacity to affect directly the outcomes of certain seats in inner-urban Melbourne.
Melburnians have always been a little more into gravitas and decorum than the SinCity Mob, and they are still resentful of the treatmen meted out to a decent woman by Rudd and his Ratpack.
TLBD
Legal Aid, Aboriginal Legal Service
TLBD
‘Boerwar,
I think Mr Manne has enough riches to allow himself to indulge his crusades. Yes Minister waxes copiously on this particular aspect of sociology.’
This has been somewhat so since a couple of millenia BC when the wealthy cornered an unfair share of the wheat surplus. The devil makes work for idle hands.
This little black duck
Julie “Crocidolite” Bishop ?
Re: Age offer
Despite its shift to the right, I do buy The Age on weekdays for $2 a day because I like to read a newspaper on public transport (the alternative is the Oz; does anything recommend a switch?), but, no, I sent the guy away without my $1. It’s not worth the subscribe and unsubscribe hassle for one month and be forever marked for direct marketing by a subscriber-desperate Fairfax.
BW – Years ago when I was young, silly and fit , amongst other things, I climbed the active volcano on Kar Kar Island off the North Coast of Madang.
We got a guide from a village took half a day or so to get up there 1839 metres. The main caldera is almost perfectly circular 3.2 km in diameter with vertical walls 300 m high.
Anyway we camped in a bush hut overnight on the edge of the main caldera, couple of bottles of scotch, hugh tropical electrical storm overnight massive downpour etc, sounded as if the volcano was erupting.
It had done so a few years earlier and did so a few years after we were there, killing 2 vulcanologist.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karkar_Island
Also hiked all over the volcanoes of Rabual before they blew and destroy a beautiful, terrific tropical town of Rabual. A serious loss.
Oh to be young, fit and silly again.
Great Days! 🙂
To Q&A or not to Q&A, that is the question.
if it does arrive that it is a Turnbull v Rudd contest, I and others will look a little foolish. I had thought they’d be in the same party by now, wasn’t it the FLOP party or something?
Betting markets are still quiet.
dave
Did you see the scrubfowl which hatch their eggs using geological heat?
When was this, if you don’t mind?
Were you working for the missionaries or for the government?
If you don’t want to answer, I would understand.
Daren Laver
[David Manne along with many others, like somone close to me, gives a voice to those who have none and for little reward. I am glad you admire it. Most do.]
[“sorry, but Mr Manne doesn’t give a fig about those without a voice, just those who get here and then have this magical thing called ‘standing’.
Mr Manne is entitled to his political opinions, I just wish he’d run for office and seek popular support for them rather than using the courts to implement them.
The average voiceless citizen has no chance of effecting their political opinions into reality and certainly does not have the High Court as their plaything (aka “dress ups for grown ups” as some said recently here) to do so.”]
Leaving aside your worthless opinion as to what Manne thinks about desperate people, and what his political views are, let’s turn to your learned opinion as to the operation of the law in this country.
The parliament makes laws, and if someone, for example, is alleged to have breached a law, or if the law is alleged to be outside the power of the parliament to make in the first place, the courts – ending up in the H Court – are the check and balance to test these claims on the law as it stands.
The alternative is to have parliamentary/executive law administered by government with no right of appeal. If you think that’s a great idea, I have a list of nice countries for you.
I have no idea what the Newspoll 2pp will be tonight. It may move a point or two against Labor. However, I also disagree with the Green’s position on principle, and agree that Labor had to change the AS policy.
In fact, I think the term asylum seeker is incorrect. Most of these people are not seeking asylum. They are seeking permanent residency in a new country with a higher standard of living. They are quality of life seekers, or QOLS. That is not a crime, but nor is citizenship in any other country a right.
Enough from me. Goodnight all.
anyONE recommend a switch
did we confirm why Essential is being ‘sat on’ the in the end? we see these games with Murdoch polls, but Essential’s release is usually as reliable as its Liberal slanting sample…
Lawyer of the year should go to Karen Farley of Legal Aid WA who went to the High Court to have an intellectually disabled man released after 27 years inside for an offence for which he was given seven years and then held at the pleasure of the governor.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCA/2013/8.html
Ducky
[Will someone point me to where a lawyer has the interests of his client better than those of his own at heart? Rumpole doesn’t count.]
A little interchange on twitter yesterday.
[kon karapanagiotidis @Kon__K 21 Jul
@JohnPollock6 @taranipe having represented over 5,000 asylum seeker, half boat arrivals, 98% have identification papers with them
The Gaffhook @TheGaffhook 21 Jul
@Kon__K @GayCarBoys @JohnPollock6 @TaraNipe Geez Kon that’s goin to hurt your pocket, the loss of another 5000 prospective clients?]
Newspoll prediction
Last time [July 5-7] 50:50
Since then other polls have shown:
-roughly the same spread but I suspect Rudd’s improving netsat, Abbott’s declining netsat, Rudd’s improving PPM will give the ALP +1 2pp ie 51:49 ALP lead.
-then it comes down to carbon and the boats.
Morgan suggests no change for ALP and COAL but maybe a plus for the Greens which, contrary to the belief of many here, is good for the ALP. A buffer.
SO :
ALP 51
COAL 49