Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).
What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.
Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.
However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.
The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.
Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.
Arising from JV at 2595 and assuming the accuracy of the news report, Bemused, you are quite right.
Must admit that is all a bit of a surprise. I thought the escort use had always been denied.
Only issue is authority which is a mixed question of law and fact.
Greg James QC is a former NSW Supreme Court judge and did the enquiry into the SA lawyer who was involved in a fatal motor vehicle accident.
Nice and able bloke. Could talk under water
theorum proven
jaundiced view@2595
My understanding is that the whole administration was such a shambles that they just didn’t have any restrictions in place on what the credit card could be used for.
But would he not have a fiduciary duty to not inappropriately spend members funds?
I voted for Joe. Poor fella is languishing on 2%.
sprocket – how did that work? 🙂
[So what is your plan to deal with is minor issue.]
Your “minor issue” is growing exponentially.
25,000 illegals in the last 12 months
How many hundreds of thousands before you admit it’s a problem?
sprocket_@2602
Do you use cccp?
I do, and never see any of the reported italics problems.
Did you fix it, Sprocket?
Bemused
[But would he not have a fiduciary duty to not inappropriately spend members funds?]
Excellent question – this would be the case for directors but union officials, I am not sure.
Breaching a fiduciary duty is not a criminal offence of itself
bemused
Staying at hotels and accessing channels they provide can be quite common perks of business use.
Union use depends on how high a standard hotel you think a union employee should be able to access
shellbell@2609
It is also the case with committee members of Incorporated Associations.
Are industrial associations not subject to any such provisos?
[Thomson’s lawyer Greg James, QC, told the court there is little debate over the facts of the case and little dispute over the charges.]
Well there you go folks… no more lies, no more BS.
The guy has fessed up in a court of law.
guytaur@2610
Porn channels are charged for over an above regular TV access.
I use cccp on FFox and the page numbers at the bottom of page 52 are in italics, which is novel, but there aren’t any other problems that I noticed.
Craig Thomson has gone all chicken little when he’s got slammer time on the cards.
So much for all the lies and BS we have heard here from the CT spruikers, the guys been busted big time.
bemused
So? Its a premium channel. Are premium channels ok or not?
Porn just emotional red herring
zoidlord:
[ But what about the rest? Turnbull is extremely pro free-market, and is anti-union. He voted for Workchoices and as prime minister would very likely cut welfare programs. His ministerial team, including the likes of George Brandis, Peter Dutton and Eric Abetz, would still have all the elements of a rabid right-wing Liberal machine. ]
Yes, I agree we are in a very bad way when Turnbull is in contention at all … but when you compare him to the alternatives, he begins to look like the best available option.
Also, remove the pernicious effect of Abbott, and the lunatic ultra-right wing would lose much of it’s current toxic influence.
Dee:
[ Whilst I disagree with Boerwar’s stance I understand it. ]
I disagree with Boerwar (just as I disagree with Fran) on the whole “vote informal” bit. One of the parties is going to win the election, and one of the blights that currently leads them is going to become PM – unless we do something to prevent it.
All that voting informal does is hand the decision as to which one it will be off to others to make.
Today’s Herald Sun (dead tree version) has the pictures of about a dozen AS babies on the front page and demands that the Prime Minister do something NOW to stop innocents such as these from being put at risk on leaky boats, as a result of his failed border protection policies. It didn’t offer any suggestions of course. Nor did it mention that if the bloke they are supporting had his way, babies such as these would be sent back to sea on those same leaky boats as soon as they arrived. The disgraceful hypocrisy and crocodile tears are so transparent.
I had already made up my mind to rid myself of this gutter rag as soon as my present subscription ends and after this as far as I’m concerned it can’t come soon enough.
I dont speak to untruthful trolls but i expect William will not thank those who use his blog to make claims on supposed admissions of guilt in current defended criminal prceedings. This is not Fox News nor are we in the US.
@Player One/2617
I will not vote Turnbull on the bases of Changed Heads, the whole party needs to be revamped.
guytaur@2616
Yes, I should have not used the term. It is just another premium channel and if the union had no rules on the subject I guess it was at the discretion of the official concerned.
I can’t really see that sticking.
[But would he not have a fiduciary duty to not inappropriately spend members funds?]
Of course. The fact that crook A authorises crook B to steal money doesn’t make the theft any better. It might possibly, however, make it legal. That’s presumably what the case will turn on.
[SA Premier Jay Weatherill seems pretty concerned that the FBT change has potential to hurt the car industry. He’s having urgent talks with Kim Carr in Canberra.
Certainly the electors of Wakefield will be hearing plenty on this.]
I got slammed yesterday for suggesting the FBT change will bite in SA, and I bloody live there.
just on the itlaics, a new page is created after every 50 posts
if italics are manifesting due to comeone not closing the italic correctly, this can be cleared by forcing a page change by posting..
no, I don’t use cccp – though the USSR did some hold attractions 😉
ST@2596
Try this: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/archive/the-beef-conspiracy/
Note the date: 9 May 2011. If you can be bothered to read the article it refers to the 30% import reduction in 2010, as well as referring to Indonesian government plans to reduce cattle imports in mid-2010 (it actually goes back earlier than that but I think this proves the point).
30 seconds on google to find this.
4 Corners program? 30 May 2011: http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20110530/cattle/
[ Nor did it mention that if the bloke they are supporting had his way, babies such as these would be sent back to sea on those same leaky boats as soon as they arrived. The disgraceful hypocrisy and crocodile tears are so transparent. ]
Labor has spent six years faffing about on this issue, pandering to lawyers and Greens instead of doing what its own voters want, namely stopping the boats. So we have no-one to blame but ourselves for this kind of media.
It’s amazing that asking people to provide some actual evidence for the tax concessions they are claiming has got so many people in a panic.
sprocket_@2624
cccp inserts a lot of html tags and I suspect it does a clean-up.
So if anyone does a post using cccp I suspect it will clean up the italics problem.
For you sprocket and any others not using cccp.
To use the Crikey Clear Comment Preview script, install in order:
Firefox
Greasemonkey
cccp
or:
Google Chrome
Tampermonkey
cccp
Psephos
The legal issues become complex if providing escorts is seen as legitimate business entertainment expense. For example if it has been common practice to “entertain” visitors with food, wine and other services it will be difficult to prove that Thomson acting illegally.
What No one in UK complaints if this loop hole will close?
Business premises renovation scheme ‘tax loophole’:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23359887
The BPRA provides 100% capital allowances for the capital costs of converting or renovating empty business property in certain disadvantaged areas of the UK.
“The government has, therefore, authorised HMRC to conduct a technical review of the BPRA legislation, with a view to making its policy purpose even clearer, so that the scheme may be made simpler and more certain in its application, at the same time reducing the risks of exploitation.
Sean
Thomson statement on 24. “I am making no admissions despite some media reports to the contrary”
Lots more was shown.
However proven yet again treat media reports with caution
[ I will not vote Turnbull on the bases of Changed Heads, the whole party needs to be revamped. ]
As far as I can see, the whole of both parties could do with a change – and I mean something more meaningful than just the self-serving change Rudd is proposing for the ALP.
You have to start somewhere, and we know that starting at the bottom gets you nowhere – so why not start at the top?
ratsak true ok. tuesday
player 1:
[One of the parties is going to win the election, and one of the blights that currently leads them is going to become PM – unless we do something to prevent it.]
Unless you have some feasible means of preventing both of the ‘blights’ from becoming PM, then your options are either for clean hands — leaving others to soil themselves assisting one of them to become PM and endorsing their paradigm — or joining one of the tribes in doing just that.
To will the end is to will the means. What will you do to prevent them both becoming PM? If the answer is that there really is nothing you can do, and let us be candid — that is the reality — then the best you can do is to choose not be part of inflicting the harm and to encourage others to follow your lead. Then, whichever blight wins, you can in good conscience challenge those who helped him do so.
The Indonesia Visa deal with Iranians is actually a HUGE step forward. Immediately about 1/3-1/2 the flow of “boat people” is stopped. This is especially important because very, very few of the Iranians would meet stringent tests for refugee status.
While we may not LIKE the Iranian government there is no evidence of genocide or systematic persecution on grounds of race or religion or even politics.
@Player One/2632
Because changing at the top doesn’t mean the other ones (especially on the front bench) who will still be there.
Darn:
[I had already made up my mind to rid myself of this gutter rag as soon as my present subscription ends and after this as far as I’m concerned it can’t come soon enough.]
You can write and ask that they discontinue sending it to you. That’s far better than awaiting the expiry of your sub.
@russellmahoney: Just plain dumb. An otherwise nothing exchange becomes an Age yarn. Great story by @jesswrightstuff http://t.co/Klnung7BIw
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-19/craig-thomson-applies-to-have-fraud-charges-heard-by-magistrate/4830552
[Thomson’s lawyer Greg James, QC, told the court there is little debate over the facts of the case and little dispute over the charges.]
Craig Thomson continuing the fantasy outside court… his lawyer dealing with the legal reality inside the court
DTT. It won’t achieve much I am sad to say but it’s a nice gesture by SBY, which of itself is telling. The Iran route will now be via KL, with an extra boat crossing for clandestine entry to Indonesia. Just like the Iraquis have been doing.
Sean
Horses mouth. Believe the statement of Thomson before a media report.
[The legal issues become complex if providing escorts is seen as legitimate business entertainment expense. For example if it has been common practice to “entertain” visitors with food, wine and other services it will be difficult to prove that Thomson acting illegally.]
I’ve never seen any suggestion that CT took anyone else to brothels. And this wouldn’t apply at all to the times he ordered prostitutes in his hotel rooms.
‘Also, remove the pernicious effect of Abbott, and the lunatic ultra-right wing would lose much of it’s current toxic influence.’
I wish something could remove the pernicious influence of errant apostrophes used by the grammatically challenged.
[ Unless you have some feasible means of preventing both of the ‘blights’ from becoming PM ]
If Abbott leads the opposition, then vote for Rudd. That gets rid of one blight.
If Turnbull leads the opposition, vote for Turnbull. That gets rid of both blights.
If you vote informal. Abbott will most likely win the election, and Rudd will be “Dear Leader for life” in opposition. So we get rid of neither blight.
[Horses mouth. Believe the statement of Thomson before a media report.]
LOL!
I don’t believe a word Thomson says… I believe what is actually happening inside the court room.
This is a guy who says getting your house raided by the police is completely normal. He’s completely detached from reality, talk about unhingement.
[ I wish something could remove the pernicious influence of errant apostrophes used by the grammatically challenged. ]
Grow up, adrian.
‘It’s amazing that asking people to provide some actual evidence for the tax concessions they are claiming has got so many people in a panic.’
Yes, and it’s indicative of the dire state of political debate, together with the overarching sense of entitlement in this country.
@Sean/2645
So I suppose you Believe Abbott’s Real Solutions Policy vs what he says on TV then?
Sean
Read the actual statement.
daretotread@2635
Not quite true.
For example, members of the Baha’i faith have been persecuted and killed.