BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition

Despite some movement on the primary vote, a third week of post-Ruddstoration polling finds the parties remain at dead level on two-party preferred.

Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).

What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.

Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.

However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.

The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.

Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.1-49.9 to Coalition”

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  1. Psephos
    [The experts – and logic – tell us that the boats will not stop, no matter how cruel we are to those in flight arriving here. A slight chance of drowning means nothing; even indefinite detention is preferable to intolerable oppression and the fear for one’s family. There is no time for thought, just the urge to flee. We would all do exactly the same – all of us – to save our family.]

    [JV is for once quite correct, although of course his correctness is wrapped up in his usual delusions (or “lies” as he prefers to call the opinions of anyone who doesn’t share his). Fear of detention and fear of drowning will not deter the hard core of people determined to gatecrash our immigration system, after they have spent so much to get so close. The only thing that will deter them is the certainty that they will not get a visa whatever they do. That’s the only policy that will stop people getting on boats.]

    No problem with opinion being expressed about variables, but you were stating as fact something that you knew not to be, or should have. That was the false assertion you kept making that it is illegal to arrive here seeking asylum, when the truth is that the visa requirement in the Migration Act is overborne by the Convention, as the High Court has found repeatedly.

    You are entitled to your opinion that desperate people fleeing their country without a choice, 90% of whom are found to be genuine refugees, are ‘hard core’ and ‘gatecrash our immigration system’, but it doesn’t match the evidence, although it does curiously match the demonization efforts of Labor and LNP and the opinion of racists in the marginals.

  2. Itep

    The FWA stuff is civil. It has, in part been, deferred to allow criminal the charges to be addressed arising from Thomson’s arrest on 31 January 2013 which were before the court today.

    In NSW local courts (the equivalent of Vic magistrate’s courts), many prosecutions are done by police prosecutors although I would think someone from the Vic DPP would do this one.

  3. [ I’ve got this sinking feeling……..Turnbull PM by Sept ..the tories aren’t gonna let this slip through their grubby fists…. ]

    If they had any sense, they would dump Abbott like a hot potato and put Turnbull in ASAP.

    However, the fact that they have tolerated Abbott as leader for so long given his obvious deficiencies, means that we probbaly can’t expect much sense from them now.

    A shame, though – Turnbull would be a shoo-in, and the prospect of ridding ourselves of two blights on the Australian political landscape (Rudd and Abbott) would be enough to make me vote for him.

  4. The discussion around live cattle exports to Indonesia conflates two separate but contemporaneous issues.

    First, Indonesia implemented a domestic policy to reduce its reliance on cattle exports, including reduced import quotas and limits on the size of beasts that can be imported. The objective is to foster an Indonesian cattle industry, which is fair enough. Implementation of the policy was a disaster – too much too soon. There simply wasn’t the domestic production capacity to meet demand, so there has been some rollback of the policy in the short term. The long term policy objective remains however. The Indonesian production model (at the moment) is heavily reliant on importing immature beasts and feedlotting them for reasonably long periods prior to slaughter. As with so much Indonesian policy making it is about creating employment, which is one of the Indonesian government’s highest priorities in a country where unemployment and under-employment is a chronic issue.

    The animal cruelty issue was separate, and one of the few instances where I thoroughly disagreed with the Australian Government’s knee-jerk response. It was stupid. Not that I support animal cruelty. Far from it. But carnivores inherently have animal cruelty on their consciences (and I’m one…) The 4 Corners beat-up involved some very minor abbatoir facilities. You only have to go to a wet market in Jakarta (let alone in rural areas) to see similar cruelty in play. Impoverished people generally have little regard for animal welfare. (As a side issue, an animal that has been badly treated prior to slaughter is not halal, or so I am told.)

    But the point is that Indonesia’s endeavours to reduce cattle imports well and truly pre-dated Australia’s unilateral live export ban.

    There is one bit of good that did come from Australia’s live export ban. There are now sophisticated monitoring measures in place to ensure that every beast imported to Indonesia from Australia is monitored up to the point of slaughter, to ensure that humane standards of treatment apply. I know an Australian guy in Jakarta who is employed by an Australian exporter to apply exactly such a program.

    As far as I know, the Indonesians never linked the reduction of cattle import quotas to the live export ban. But Australia’s unilateral ban didn’t help matters much, but at least on the Indonesian side, it all blew over pretty quickly, apart from leaving a few ruffled feathers.

  5. Boerwar@2534

    mh

    ‘I always thought you voted for a party not an individual.’

    Two no potatoes for that one.

    Take your pick of the two funamentally rotten apples who have been wrecking the joint for three years because we haven’t given them the job yet. Check whether either of them would put themselves before their respective parties.

    Mike, best advice is IGNORE THE BORE.

  6. Rosemour or Less @ 2512

    I’ve got this sinking feeling……..Turnbull PM by Sept ..the tories aren’t gonna let this slip through their grubby fists….

    That should work out rather well considering we are having an August 24th election or so I have heard…

  7. Sean Tisme@2535

    Craig Thomson sh!t scared of a judgement by his peers.

    Whats he afraid of?

    Juries decide facts where they are at issue. In this case the facts are not in dispute so there is not really a role for a jury.
    The case is well within the limits of the Magistrates’ Court limit.
    Do you want the taxpayer put to greater expense for no good purpose?

  8. [The coalition party is rock solid. Tony Abbott is Opposition leader and will have full support of the party room to election day.]

    Best news I’ve had all day.

  9. Bemused

    [the facts are not in dispute]

    I suspect most facts will be in dispute hence the length of the case. Thomson will admit nothing which is perfectly legitimate and orthodox

  10. shellbell@2566

    Bemused

    the facts are not in dispute


    I suspect most facts will be in dispute hence the length of the case. Thomson will admit nothing which is perfectly legitimate and orthodox

    Just repeating what I heard on radio news.

  11. Player
    Substituting ‘two blights’ as you put it for another?

    Whilst I disagree with Boerwar’s stance I understand it.

    However, those actions are in themselves nothing more than personality politics and have zero to do with policy.

  12. Abbott and his cohorts claiming the changes to FBT will be the ruination of the car industry.

    And what do they expect will happen when they withdraw $500million in subsidies to the industry?

  13. BW @ 2473

    In relation to AGW, the Chinese system of governance has many flaws, but a lack of high-level technocratic expertise at, or very near, the top is not one of them. The Chinese don’t engage in the sort of anti-scientific Denialist pap that flourishes in anglophone democracies.

    Easily explained by the absence of the fundamentalist, Christian ignorant mindset and influence that is prevalent in those Anglophone democracies.

  14. I’d rather Turnbull as Lib leader. First, I’d prefer him as PM to Abbott, who is an utter embarassment. Second, I don’t think he connects well with the greater public and he’d likely be easier to defeat, regardless of what the polls currently say.

  15. DRinMelb@2573

    BW @ 2473

    In relation to AGW, the Chinese system of governance has many flaws, but a lack of high-level technocratic expertise at, or very near, the top is not one of them. The Chinese don’t engage in the sort of anti-scientific Denialist pap that flourishes in anglophone democracies.

    Easily explained by the absence of the fundamentalist, Christian ignorant mindset and influence that is prevalent in those Anglophone democracies.

    The Chinese system seems to allow professions like Engineers to rise to the top in politics while countries like Australia have a political system infested with lawyers.

  16. [Psephos
    Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    .

    The only thing that will deter them is the certainty that they will not get a visa whatever they do. That’s the only policy that will stop people getting on boats.]

    So what is your plan to deal with is minor issue.

    Kill em.
    Or spend a fortune locking them up for the rest of their life.

  17. There is a bit of a dilemma with Abbott v. Turnbull.

    On one hand, Abbott would be a lot easier to beat, it seems (even if Turnbull did terribly last time, a honeymoon from a return would aid him).

    On the other hand, there is still a reasonable chance that Abbott could actually win, which means we get him as PM.

    Do we want a better chance at winning, or to soften the blow, in case we are defeated?

    In my view, I think we should just leave the Libs to themselves and prepare to battle any opponent.

  18. Well, after 16 hours the power is back on. Given that it’s well past the time for the Dawn Patrol I’ll just offer a montage of today’s cartoons.
    David Pope on the UN AS agreement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Alan Moir is bemused over Rudd’s CC policy movements.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Rowe continues with his nautical theme.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Ron Tandberg thinks it’s all over for Essendon.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  19. WTF?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/19/kevin-rudd-labor-asylum-border-protection?CMP=twt_gu

    TONY ABBOTT: Well I’ll wait and see what the government comes up with, but this is a problem that Mr Rudd created. It’s now up to Mr Rudd to take urgent, decisive action actually to stop the boats and he keeps saying that he doesn’t like three-word slogans. Well if he’s not going to stop the boats, what is he going to do? What is he going to do? At the moment, all he’s doing is servicing the boats and that’s not a smart thing for a country like Australia.

  20. guytaur@2579

    @MikeCarlton01: Let’s all whip up feverish speculation about the LIberal leadership. After Julia/Kevin it seems only fair. http://t.co/KKbmg5O7US

    Just voted for Julie Bishop to lead opposition in the poll with that article.
    Currently running:
    TA 18%
    MT 73%
    JH 2%
    JB 3%
    Other 4%

  21. will Joel Fitzgibbon come out and say he has been receiving text messages from some in the liberal party claiming Turnbull will be the leader on august 1 2013

  22. TONY ABBOTT: Well I’ll wait and see what the government comes up with, but this is a problem that Mr Rudd created. It’s now up to Mr Rudd to take urgent, decisive action actually to stop the boats and he keeps saying that he doesn’t like three-word slogans. Well if he’s not going to stop the boats, what is he going to do? What is he going to do? At the moment, all he’s doing is servicing the boats and that’s not a smart thing for a country like Australia.
    ———————————————————-

    Noting that Labor went to the 2007 election with a policy. They were given a mandate by the electorate. Abbott is big on mandates when it suits him

    Noting also that the Liberal Party endorsed the changes and supported them.

  23. BK

    You have done well on timing. Missed the LNP pressers in time for PMKR big AS announcement.

    24 thinks its detention centre of 3000 up from 200 and settlement in PNG

  24. [will Joel Fitzgibbon come out and say he has been receiving text messages from some in the liberal party claiming Turnbull will be the leader on august 1 2013]

    Joel must be bored after spending three years sabotaging his leader. Now he’s sabotaging their leader in his spare time.

  25. “@InsidersABC: Immigration min @Tony_Burke joins #insiders on Sunday. Panel @frankellyabc @JacquelineMaley & @andrewprobyn. Talking pics w @cathywilcox1”

  26. C Thomson apparently not going to dispute the use of credit card for prostitutes etc. Well, how could he after the FWC findings and reasons? His story did not stack up for a moment, and he is on record as giving a transparently false account, and he is now essentially admitting he did.

    Instead going to argue that he was “authorised” to use the card the way he did. If he was authorised that makes the rest of the HSU leadership look great. They won’t be too happy about that defence.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-19/craig-thomson-applies-to-have-fraud-charges-heard-by-magistrate/4830552

  27. [But the point is that Indonesia’s endeavours to reduce cattle imports well and truly pre-dated Australia’s unilateral live export ban. ]

    I’d love to see evidence on this, I really would

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