Three weeks after I hit reset on BludgerTrack (a fact now represented on the sidebar charts, in which the Gillard and Rudd epochs as separate series), the results remain sensitive to weekly variation as the overall pool of data is still very shallow (eleven polls in all). This week we have had Nielsen’s monthly result, the poll which appeared last week from newcomers AMR Research, and the usual weekly Essential and Morgan. The state relativities have been updated with last week’s result of federal voting intention in Queensland from ReachTEL, along with breakdowns from Nielsen and Morgan (the latter of which pleasingly looks to have become a regular feature).
What this all adds up to is a move this week from minor to major parties, one consequence of which is that the Greens have recorded what by some distance is their worst result since BludgerTrack opened for business in November. This may well portend a further decline born of the leadership change and the tightening focus on the major party contest, but I would want more evidence before I signed on to that with confidence. It’s certainly clear that the return of Rudd has been bad news for the combined non-major party vote, but the scale of it is a bit up in the air at the moment. So far as this week’s result is concerned, the shift has enabled Labor to both handily break through the 40% primary vote barrier while going backwards slightly on two-party preferred, on which the Coalition recovers the narrowest of leads.
Tellingly, despite two-party preferred being a mirror image of the 2010 election result, the seat projection still points to a continuation of Labor in office, albeit that it would rely on Andrew Wilkie (whom ReachTEL suggested to be on track for victory in its Denison poll last month) and Adam Bandt (who will continue to be designated as the member for Melbourne until polling evidence emerges to suggest he will lose, which will by no means surprise me if happens) to shore it up in parliament. This points to the crucial importance of Queensland, where there are no fewer than nine LNP seats on margins of less than 5%. So long as the swing in that state remains where BludgerTrack has it at present, Labor could well be in business.
However, as Kevin Bonham notes, there is an obstacle facing Labor on any pathway to victory that runs through Queensland: eight of the nine marginals will be subject to the effects of “sophomore surge”, in which members facing re-election for the first time enjoy a small fillip by virtue of acquiring the personal vote which is usually due to an incumbent. In seven of the nine cases this comes down to the LNP members having won their seats from Labor last time, although Leichhardt and Bonner are a little more complicated in that the members had held them at earlier times. The other two LNP marginals are the Townsville seat of Herbert, which stayed in the LNP fold in 2010 upon the retirement of the sitting member, and Fisher, which as Kevin Bonham notes is a “fake marginal” and an unlikely Labor gain.
The BludgerTrack model has sophomore surge effects covered, with adjustments of between 0.4% and 1.9% applied according to whether the seat is metropolitan or regional (the latter being more susceptible to candidate effects generally) or has what Bonham calls the “double sophomore” effect, in which the challenging party also loses the personal vote of its defeated member from the previous election. Other factors used in the model to project a seat’s result are the existing margin, the statewide swing as determined by the poll trend, and a weighting to account for an electorate’s tendency to swing historically. These results are then used to calculate a probability of the seat being won by Labor, and the sum of the various seats’ probability scores determines the statewide seat total shown on the sidebar. Sophomore surge effects are currently reducing Labor’s Queensland total by about 1.3 seats, which means they will be down one seat for about two-thirds of the time, and down two seats for the remainder.
Finally, sharp-eyed observers may note that the projection has Labor down a seat in New South Wales, by the narrowest of margins, despite a small swing in their favour on the two-party preferred. The loss of sitting members in three loseable seats (Dobell, Kingsford Smith and Barton) is playing a part here, but it also represents the fact that the model rates Labor as having been slightly lucky to have won a twenty-sixth seat there at the last election.
I have to say it was hilarious watching Howard sycophantically clinging to the Queen at Lords last night.
‘Abbott and Truss are standing in hall in front of toilets with lots of crowd noise.’
Quite appropriate because they give everyone the shits.
Albanese suggests ‘tension in Coalition ranks’ amongst Abbott and Turnbull supporters
can someone say what ‘turn boats’ means? does a large navy vessel tow a flimsy overcrowded fishing wooden vessel? has there been a test of such engineering? when is boat intercepted? not in international waters? if in australian water then how can this occur?
[Psephos
Posted Friday, July 19, 2013 at 10:30 am | Permalink
This whole preoccupation with what punters think is quite moronic. Punters are, by definition, wrong more often than they’re right, otherwise the gambling industry would not exist. Further, punters have no more information about politics than we do, and I would think in most cases a good deal less. They just follow the polls like everyone else.]
Pretty much the way I see it too.
rudd spent quite enough time as of today on carbon party and people – lib agenda – urgent time to move on the fresh agenda, and election
‘turn the boat’s is just a slogan, Abbott & Co. don’t know what it means or how to implement it, it appeals to the inhumane in our society.
gloryconsequence
yawn. turnbull has support this derelict opposition and deserves no oxygen. put the opposition front bench on a boat and tow it mid indian ocean
The Independent uncovers more police cover-up of UK hacking, this time by “blue chip” companies Exclusive: Hacking cover-up scandal as police refuse to name ‘blue-chip’ companies who used corrupt private investigators
[The Serious Organised Crime Agency has refused to disclose the names of blue-chip companies who commissioned corrupt private investigators who broke the law because revealing them would damage the firms’ commercial interests, The Independent has learnt.
Sir Ian Andrews, the agency’s chairman, told Parliament that publishing the information could “substantially undermine the financial viability of major organisations by tainting them with public association with criminality”.
In an extraordinary letter to MPs, the former senior Ministry of Defence official said the evidence held for years by Soca, which was revealed last month by this newspaper, has now been “formally classified” because the information may breach the human rights of the law firms, insurance companies and wealthy individuals who hired corrupt private investigators…
The MP Keith Vaz, chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee, said he would be writing to every firm in the FTSE 100 and the top 100 legal firms to ask them to declare whether they have commissioned private investigators, and for what purpose.
He added: “Socahas indicated that it is prepared to give the client list to us in confidence. This has still not been received. It is a disappointment that this is yet another document the Committee has had to receive in secret from Soca.]
[Australia-China bilateral climate change cooperation
In implementing its pilot ETSs, China has been drawing on the experiences of other countries, including Australia, which have established ETS programs. Australian officials have been working closely with China over the last year, sharing Australia’s experiences in developing an ETS, and discussing the policy and technical challenges of developing an ETS.
There have been numerous two-way policy and technical visits on emissions trading policy in the past twelve months. In June 2012 a Chinese delegation of national and provincial government officials visited Australia for in-depth discussions with experts and stakeholders involved in the design and implementation of Australia’s emissions trading system. In July 2012, Australia and China held the first Australia-China Emissions Trading Experts’ Dialogue in Beijing, which brought together national and provincial officials and academics to discuss emissions trading. The workshop focused on the measurement, reporting and regulatory systems needed to underpin emissions trading.]
http://www.chinaconnections.com.au/en/magazine/1643-snapshot-guangdongs-emissions-trading-scheme
The Rudd government is expected to announce as early as this afternoon an overhaul of the way Australia handles asylum seekers, which could include the resettlement of refugees in third countries.
This comes as Indonesia announced it would tighten visa restrictions for visitors from Iran, in one of the first moves in the region aimed at stemming the flow of asylum seekers coming to Australia via Indonesia.
As Mr Rudd deals with the second major policy issue this week – after announcing an early shift to an emissions trading scheme on Tuesday – speculation is growing that he is about announce the election date.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/refugees-may-be-shunted-off-to-other-countries-20130719-2q834.html#ixzz2ZS4rq3NQ
I’ve got this sinking feeling……..Turnbull PM by Sept ..the tories aren’t gonna let this slip through their grubby fists….
murdoch surrounded by flak from everywhere, big biz offside now ….
Cif Australia @Cif_Australia 1m
A Malcolm Turnbull comeback would not be good news for the left, writes @simoncopland http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/19/malcolm-turnbull-tony-abbott-spill … #auspol #libspill #reTurnbull
Retweeted by Guardian Australia
[I’ve got this sinking feeling……..Turnbull PM by Sept ..the tories aren’t gonna let this slip through their grubby fists….]
They’ll want to roll Abbott over the weekend then. Today’s boats announcement, the earlier Carbon announcement, and Monday’s caucus meeting to approve the leadership voting changes are clearing the decks to at least neutralise these as best as possible.
Rudd will be visiting Yarralumla on Tuesday I reckon.
I have to agree that in spite of all the Lib’s “stability” rhetoric, a lot of them would be taking a loooooong look at Turnbull right now.
The question is can they bring themselves to do it? On that I’m doubtful.
that is ‘more big biz offside …..’
also means massive frothing from job threatened msm hacks …..
BREAKING: Craig #Thomson MP has won the right to have his fraud charges heard in the @MagCourtVic rather than face jury trial. #7NewsMelb
The former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, Michael Hayden, believes Chinese telecommunications manufacturer Huawei Technologies is a significant security threat to Australia and the US, has spied for the Chinese government, and intelligence agencies have hard evidence of its activities.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/huawei_spies_for_china_says_ex_cia_QoPS9JWsvg6bMYqmPbtqLK
Rosemour
The Coalition are odds on to win the election atm.
Will they change to Turnbull pre-election is anyone’s guess.
We’ll get a sense of that if the Coalition canoe starts leaking.
Steam is rising from one of the Fukushima reactors.
The authorities say there is nothing to worry about.
Mmmm… they might be right. But would it be wise to believe them, given the Fukushima authorities track record of dishonesty, lack of integrity and lack of respect for others?
The shakey isles living up to its name with Wellington copping a 5.7 magnitude earthquake. No reported injuries and at least one cool cucumber..
[“(It was) increasing in intensity and caused our three dogs to go crazy! The shake lasted in our home based in Upper Hutt for two and a half minutes.
“Oh well, was time for our teenage to get up – shake, rattle and roll; up time!”]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10900169
Victoria
[The former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, Michael Hayden, believes Chinese telecommunications manufacturer Huawei Technologies is a significant security threat to Australia and the US, has spied for the Chinese government, and intelligence agencies have hard evidence of its activities.]
As is the USA’s & UK’s ubiquitous hacking of just about everyone & everything.
Pot. Kettle. Black.
poroti
You may have missed my thanks for the link you posted. Fantastic stuff, IMHO.
Getting the same feeling I had when Rudd was on the back bench and I thought, he’s not coming back … It comes from paying attention to the 24 hour media cycle, the day to day political jousting and the petty point scoring over trivia.
What you find though is in the end there are fundamentals in place and they aren’t shifting until Rudd has won. Same deal with what’s going on now. The frames have been established. All that’s required now is time for it all to seep through to people
[Diplomacy works]
Like Gillard shutting down the cattle export industry overnight based on a 4 corners show.
Are we back to pre-Gillard F’up levels of cattle export to Indonesia yet?
s212 @ 2525
Ah. The fundamentals.
Are you talking about the increased likelihood that the extinction rate for Australian species will go up?
I always thought you voted for a party not an individual.
ST
You support animal cruelty in Indonesia but not in Australia?
How hypocriticalment.
@Sean/2526
Past tense there again.
[Craig #Thomson MP has won the right to have his fraud charges heard in the @MagCourtVic rather than face jury trial]
Unusual outcome given the suggestion that the case would go for a long time.
Magistrates tend to have huge lists of short cases to work their way through with longer matters in less busy courts like the County Court in Victoria or its equivalent in other states, the District Court.
A magistrate’s acquittal may be appealable whereas a jury acquittal is not.
Also may mean
[I have to agree that in spite of all the Lib’s “stability” rhetoric, a lot of them would be taking a loooooong look at Turnbull right now.]
The only talk of instability is from desperate Labor voters.
The coalition party is rock solid. Tony Abbott is Opposition leader and will have full support of the party room to election day.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/19/malcolm-turnbull-tony-abbott-spill
From the time that MT lost his position as LOTO, he has not done a single thing that we may consider progressive. His excuse has been that he is a team player and that he has kept quiet for strategic reasons. Yet he seems to be most popular. Australian voters are a strange bunch. It’s not what you do that counts, it’s what you don’t do that makes you popular.
mh
‘I always thought you voted for a party not an individual.’
Two no potatoes for that one.
Take your pick of the two funamentally rotten apples who have been wrecking the joint for three years because we haven’t given them the job yet. Check whether either of them would put themselves before their respective parties.
Craig Thomson sh!t scared of a judgement by his peers.
Whats he afraid of?
@Sean/2532
Typical Bullshit from you lumping everyone that doesn’t agree with you as “Desperate Labor Voters”.
Not just normal Labor Voters, Desperate ones.
[A worker monitoring live camera images noticed that what appeared to be steam was hovering just above the primary containment vessel at 8.20am on Thursday. The vapour was still visible two hours later, reports said.
Tepco said rainfall on Wednesday night could have been the cause.
“We think it’s possible that rain made its way through the reactor building and having fallen on the primary containment vessel, which is hot, evaporated and created steam,” said Mayumi Yoshida, a Tepco spokeswoman.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/18/fukushima-steam-reactor-radiation-levels
Boerwar you can’t stop animal cruelty in Indonesia it appears to be part of their culture.
Not sending Aussie beef there won’t stop that. We can only controls what happens within our borders
SA Premier Jay Weatherill seems pretty concerned that the FBT change has potential to hurt the car industry. He’s having urgent talks with Kim Carr in Canberra.
Certainly the electors of Wakefield will be hearing plenty on this.
Triton
Thank you for your 2483. Much appreciated.
ST
Thomson probably thought that there would be some Liberals who would be incapable of giving him a fair trial.
Someone such as yourself, for example.
i notice newsltd is reminding everyone that their puppet Abbott done this
Mr Turnbull, who was knifed by Tony Abbott in 2009,
ST
‘Boerwar you can’t stop animal cruelty in Indonesia it appears to be part of their culture.’
I am not convinced by this assertion. Extreme cruelty to people as well as animals was normal in our culture until quite recently.
‘Not sending Aussie beef there won’t stop that. We can only controls what happens within our borders’
Trade conditions involving end use are quite common so this attempt is a bit below your usual quality of comment.
Is newsltd starting to cut the strings on their puppet Abbott
[Craig Thomson sh!t scared of a judgement by his peers.
Whats he afraid of?]
Prejudice in the jury, one would imagine. His case is a pretty public and politically loaded one. I’d opt to be tried by a judge too, if in similar circumstances
We can’t control how Indonesia treat cattle but Abbott and his desperate followers believe they can tell Indonesia how to “treat” asylum seekers…
BW
[Thomson probably thought that there would be some Liberals who would be incapable of giving him a fair trial.]
Then again there could have been an equivalent to Joh’s Luke Shaw
Craig Thomson case, by opting for a judge only trial it will happen sooner.
From what I’ve seen Thomson is confident and he wants the trial as quickly as can happen
[Thomson probably thought that there would be some Liberals who would be incapable of giving him a fair trial.]
I’d love to be on the trial, would love to hear his spin and BS for hours on end and dissect it all with the evidence.
more fun here witnessing ST hop through th’hoops…..
is he on salts ?
…..somersaults !!