Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
davidwh
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 11:30 am | PERMALINK
MB Labor are in charge because the media loves Kevvie. Not really sure why but they do. In fact the ABC has gone a bit feral about Kevvie so I may have to bitch about media bias
——————————————
Davidwh
Abbott is still getting protected by news ltd
Morning Tea at Yarralumla on Saturday Kevin. This buffoon is on the edge of a massive break down.
alias
No, just a lazy 20. Of course, Betfair is a marketplace as opposed to a bookie, so the ‘prices’ are set by other people prepared to lay. The person I matched my bet with was way out there. They must have forgotten they had it riding. 🙂
[The big danger now is that the combination of the rapidly changing polls, panic in LNP ranks and the Abbott book expenses scandal will force the Libs to switch to Turnbull – a bad outcome for Labor and Rudd.]
Question is: are the right-wing loony powerbrokers in the Lib party willing to eat their own faeces over things like carbon pricing & climate change to take on Malcolm again?
Methinks they’d go for Hockey first.
Two versions of the same party phenomenon:
1. zoomster
“After all, factions are just friendship groups formalised. Which is why not only all parties, but all organisations, have them.”
2. Mark Latham
“Larger unions like United Voice, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, the Australian Workers Union and the Shop Distributive & Allied Employees’ Association (“the Shoppies”) have purloined groups of MPs they can control, much like Britain’s eighteenth century system of rotten boroughs. If any of these MPs defies a union directive, especially on major issues such as leadership ballots and industrial-relations policy, they risk losing their pre-selection. This coercive power underpins the sub-factional system – the labyrinth of union groupings and personal fiefdoms which, in aggregate, make up the federal and state parliamentary parties. In the decision-making processes of caucus (and also party conferences), the sub-factions combine their numbers into broad Left and Right factions, usually in the context of extensive horse-trading and compromise.”
Hmm, I wonder which has the lower element of spin? 🙂
alias:
[The big danger now is that the combination of the rapidly changing polls, panic in LNP ranks and the Abbott book expenses scandal will force the Libs to switch to Turnbull – a bad outcome for Labor and Rudd.]
This is extremely unlikely to happen unless Rudd allows Parliament to convene at the end of August as per the schedule. The irony is that they could potentially hold a party meeting from all corners of Australia if they had the NBN installed, but not a change with fraudband.
So, I’d be putting money on the parliament being dissolved some time in the week beginning 12/8/2013 at the latest because Turnbull as leader is definitely not an advantage to Labor.
davidwh
There was a tangible sense of shock and guilt from the media the day Rudd gave his farewell speech last time around…sort of a ‘is this really our fault?’ thing.
Might explain a lot of what’s happened over the last three years…
triton@1034
Turnbull was just allowed to rabbit on endlessly without interruption.
Albo didn’t get much of a clear go and I thought he was feeling his way.
Speed is not terribly technical in my opinion and an easy concept to grasp.
Many other NBN issues also lend themselves to non-technical explanations that the non-techo is often better at.
Here are a few simple non-technical points that should be used:
* Copper corrodes fibre doesn’t.
* Electrical signals on copper are subject to electrical interference.
* Light signals on fibre are not subject to electrical interference.
* Copper is at the limit of what we can squeeze out of it.
* Fibre will be able to carry faster speeds, requiring only the terminal equipment be upgraded.
* The residual copper in fraudband will, within a few years, need to be replaced, costing more.
* NBN is an ‘enabler’ of applications requiring more data and higher speed. e.g. health images, engineering designs.
MB #1050 someone has to love him.
If facial expressions are anything to go by:
Malcolm is considering his options (last night a few ‘tells’ on qanda)
Hockey is depressed that he hitched his caboose to Abbott.
If there is a coup in the Lib party:
They’d have an issue on trust because they went so hard on leader change in Labor;
There’d have to be an entire front bench change because the dinosaurs are all tethered to Abbott;
The whole show has, up till now, been run by Mrs Loughnane who is Abbott’s puppeteer and she’d have to jump ship and rethink her entire strategy if she is to remain in power
Jen,
Whilst I have always had doubts about Turnbull getting the numbers, I think you’ve got your who’d eat a shit sanga question back to front.
The real question is would Turnbull chow down, smile and said it tasted like Nutella over carbon in order to keep the nasties sweet and be PM? Malcolm’s answer would of course be, “can I have a glass of water to wash it down with?”
alias, I can’t see the LNP switching to Turnbull quickly or without a nasty and public split first. Abbott has made too big a commitment and disciplined himself, against his nature, for too long to go quietly.
davidwh@1037
Just simple re-balancing comrade.
Okay, we’ll see how the NBN battle develops.
You could be right ratsak, after all he has played submissive to Abbott’s dominant well for the past 3 years.
I just see that it’ll be bigger than that. There are luddites (Minchin comes immediately to mind) who won’t trust that Turnbull won’t slowly change the direction of the ship.
Vested interest has a tighter hold on the Libs entrails than the unions have on Labor’s these days.
“@HillbillySkill: Did @TonyAbbottMHR know Garlo’s Pies are Halal? Luke Simpkins will be beside himself! The Leader has now got Creeping Islamicism! #auspol”
bemused,
Albo did get in the singular point that demolishes the Liberals entire fraudband edifice and that’s the point that its $29B versus $30B. Simple as that.
And Turnbull’s hysterical reaction betrays the fact that he knows his “cheaper” promise is a lie.
It is a shame Oakeshott is leaving parliament – I reckon he’d have made a great independent speaker.
Hey all, looks like some excitement happened while I was out.
And @Lizzie, the problem with Turnbull getting air-time with NBN on ABC is that Albo was not allowed free-will.
He was on ABC24 other day directly attacking Coalition NBN from an announcement (some light project I think it was).
I wonder if the carbon tax has lost a lot of its potency now. Abbott’s attacks on it were all tied up with hostility towards Julia Gillard over her infamous promise and from there he made pious statements about integrity, keeping promises and telling the truth (which he managed to deliver with a straight face and sincere tone).
He has locked himself in by describing the election as a referendum on the carbon tax. He’s stuck with it now, so he has to visit pie shops to keep it in the public’s mind, but I wonder if it has slipped down a bit as a concern for voters.
George Bludger @GeorgeBludger 9m
Hey @bkjabour I think I speak for everyone here when I say, please NEVER calm down #calmdownbridie
Slip Sliding away……..
ratsak
[The real question is would Turnbull chow down, smile and said it tasted like Nutella over carbon in order to keep the nasties sweet and be PM? Malcolm’s answer would of course be, “can I have a glass of water to wash it down with?”]
Yes, those promoting the idea of an MT ‘moderate Liberal’ leadership seem to totally forget what he was like last time.
QT consisted almost entirely of hard-line right questions on BOATS and Turnbull promoted people like Mirabella ahead of better qualified and less nutty MPs.
He knew the better qualified and less nutty would support him anyway – it was the hard right he had to keep happy.
guytaur@1065
That is hilarious!!!
Wait till Alan Jones and Ray Hadley find out. 👿
Its all going well isn’t it?
cud chewer@1066
Yes, that is a really good one and nothing technical about it.
Need to nail him on the lie of $100B or whatever his latest random number is.
@bemused/1075
Yup, but the $90billion or $100billion lie has been around since not long after the appointment of Abbott actually.
I don’t think the voters believe it though.
ABC finally have #battlerorts on its web page – its all Labor’s fault of course.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-09/tony-abbott-says-labor-dirt-campaign-behind-questions-over-expe/4808492
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-09/tony-abbott-says-labor-dirt-campaign-behind-questions-over-expe/4808492
It’s always a smear campaign or a dirt campaign.
jaundiced view@1054
Yes, on planet zoomster faction members just sit around with their warlords singing Kumbaya.
No backstabbing, no branch stacking, no plotting, all sweetness and light. 👿
Simply hilarious.
Jen,
It won’t be the Libs without a workable mechanism to remove a leader the majority no longer have confidence in after the election.
Whilst it’s still a long shot at this stage, Libspill in favour of Malcolm isn’t out of the race. If the Libs get enough polling evidence to suggest that they will definitely win with Turnbull, but are looking iffy with Tones, then they’ll switch and just axe him after the election if he goes rogue on them again. Malcolm will know the score and I’ve no doubt he’d rather be PM than actually do anything much.
Murdoch may be feeling a bit conflicted (quite apart from his UK problems). He’s often portrayed as a crabby old neo-con but, don’t forget, he was once president of the Oxford University Labour Club and had a bust of Lenin on his desk. He’s supported Labor/Labour from time to time, notably Whitlam and Blair, only to turn on them when things haven’t worked out.
Most of all, he likes to back a winner. A testing time for Rupe.
bluegreen@1074
G’day bluegreen.
How is the rhetoric?
It’s not too late for the Libs to dump their electoral liability before the election.
Dear Tony:
Slip slidin’ away
Slip slidin’ away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you’re slip slidin’ away
The ABC lagged on the recent Rabbott rorts story until they could put the Coalition spin on it.
How surprisement!
@Dee/1085
I think it’s because Turnbull attacks Nick Ross (ABCTech) for being bias.
Yesiree Bob
Tones missing the finish line by “that much” 🙂
Apart from Rudd’s advantage over Abbott in the popularity stakes, Labor’s chances are boosted because of Coalition state government policies in Queensland particularly but also in NSW, WA, Victoria and doubtfully the NT.
Labor’s Achilles heel, state governments in SA and Tasmania, puts up to eight Labor seats at risk.
Women of calibre are everywhere, Tone.
Except in your party.
You certainly encountered one this morning!
Calm down, Tone!
Women of calibre are everywhere, Tone.
Except in your party.
You certainly encountered one this morning!
Calm down, Tone!
So, did Tony abuse a journo at his presser this morning ?
Unhingment, much ?
Re the Abbott expenses story, you have to admit two things in relation to the matter. First, the timing is very convenient for PMKR. Second, the MO is straight out of the Hawker Manual for political spin and smearing.
I have to say that one of the best things to come out of the failed 2012 leadership battle was that Hawker mostly disappeared off the political scene. Not too happy that he and his methods may make a comeback.
@genericleftist: Abbott looking more desperate by the minute. He is now effectively accusing Rudd of secretly being Margo Kingston. http://t.co/cYfCeReAQ9
“@genericleftist: Abbott’s travel documents were released to a journalist under FOI and published by said journalist. Kevin Rudd is not a journalist. #auspol”
Abbott gets 5% of the blowtorch that Gillard endured for three years and he falls over.
How great Tone would be on the world stage during an emergency,
Toorak Toff:
[He’s supported Labor/Labour from time to time, notably Whitlam and Blair, only to turn on them when things haven’t worked out.]
I can offer you a more recent example: Rudd, 2007.
Has anyone got a link a clip of the #calmdownbridie moment?
That man is appalling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrnJwt30yJE
This may work Puff.
@Puff/1096
No doubt it will be on youtube.
davidwh
The Abbott stuff has nothing to do with the ALP it was a story by Margot Kingston on her No Fibs website, she paid the FOI fees for the information and got a redacted copy of the letters.
Abbott is lying as usual.