Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan 54.5-45.5 to Labor

Only the two weekly pollsters to keep us entertained in the wake of last week’s glut, and the results offer something for everybody.

Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.

Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).

The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.

Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,135 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan 54.5-45.5 to Labor”

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  1. So vote above the line because you will not be able to read what is below the line.

    I expect there may be a few court cases.

  2. Perhaps its time that Rudd did that speech that honestly dealt with the issue of boat people by saying its a problem that cannot be “fixed” and that we need to think seriously about accepting a flow of refugees or else the only things that actually work in preventing people from getting on boats are things that are punitive and will hurt people.

    It needs to be said as simply and honestly as that.

  3. Antony Green is in my bad books at the moment over his attitude to the tally room. I haven’t got around to giving him a rocket for it yet, but I will.

  4. ALP into 3.45 on Betfair from 3.85 earlier this morning. Not huge money – about $15K to bring it in that far but clearly a fair few punters think 3.85 was too good to miss. Similar move on Sportsbet wherte the ALP is in to 3.4

  5. My Say

    I actually agree with you

    Gillard deserves praise for the things she achieved, just as Rudd did for the things he achieved ion 2007-10.

    Gillard seems to have done darn well on the “Gonski stuff” so I hope it survives.

    She got the NDIS through although I think that in fairness both Rudd and Shorten deserve equal praise – Rudd for initiating it and Shorten for pushing it.

  6. cud chewer:
    [Now that people are sitting up and paying attention, now is the time for Labor to start running ads demonstrating their economic competence, talking about how the carbon price really works, talking about how the pink batts were successful.. preempting all the predictable negative attacks the Liberals will drag out, and also pointing out that the Liberals don’t have one credible policy.

    They should be doing this now whilst the change of leadership is getting people to sit up and think.]

    This is what Rudd has been doing from the moment he won the ballot. Precisely, every negative for Labor (or Rudd personally) has been tagged with a strategy to neutralise it prior to the campaign officially starting. Every single thing Rudd has done so far has been with this in mind – Howard used to call them “irritants”. It’s the same strategy, it’s been effective in the past, and it’s looking effective this time around.

    Coupled with the brilliant debate wedgie which has seen Abbott desperately picking bits of red budgie smuggler out of his arse, the poll catapult isn’t that much of a surprise. It isn’t over yet, either.

  7. “@senthorun: Well, @Tony_Burke is right about one thing: we need facts not slogans. Less “no advantage” and “stop the boats” rhetoric, please. #auspol”

  8. adrian@952

    Yes bemused, that was a little revelation that seems to have escaped everyone’s attention, but I cam imagine how profoundly shocked you are that St Julia may not have been telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

    My surprise was feigned.
    I watched that 4C and picked up on that.

    It is of course quite consistent with a previous 4C revealing the victory speech was written 2 weeks prior to the coup.

    IMHO Rudd was off his game at the time, clearly showing signs of his gall bladder problems, and should have been sent on sick leave to have his operation which he ended up having soon after the coup.

    It would have been a nice little trial run for JG to see if she really could lead for a couple of months.

  9. bemused
    [IMHO Rudd was off his game at the time, clearly showing signs of his gall bladder problems, and should have been sent on sick leave to have his operation which he ended up having soon after the coup.]

    How convenient. It must have been his gall bladder acting up. Nothing to do with his personality. Nothing he can be actually blamed for.

  10. “@geeksrulz: Always the wimin causing Abbott trouble. Bridie Jabour from Guardian Australia told to clam down by Abbott. @bkjabour #auspol #BattleRort”

  11. autocrat,

    True, but I still want to see some landmark speeches, and I still want to see Labor open its purse and pursue some advertising – even online, whilst they have this window where people are sitting up and thinking, and before the liberals saturate the media with negative ads later.

  12. IMO Albo did a very poor job of counteracting Malcolm’s “positive sell” of Fraudband last night. Albo not up to speed on NBN yet.

  13. [Pope condemns indifference to refugees http://bit.ly/13H0oaA ]

    Will Cardinal Pell convey the Pope’s words to Tony Abbott?

    [POPE Francis has urged an end to “indifference” to the plight of refugees on a visit to an Italian island where tens of thousands of African and Middle Eastern migrants first reach Europe.

    “We ask forgiveness for the indifference towards so many brothers and sisters,” Francis said on Monday at a mass near the port on his first trip outside of Rome since his election in March.

    Speaking within sight of dozens of the abandoned boats used by the migrants, he paid tribute to the hundreds who drown every year trying to reach Europe and said he had come to Lampedusa “to reawaken consciences”.]

  14. triton@1011

    bemused

    IMHO Rudd was off his game at the time, clearly showing signs of his gall bladder problems, and should have been sent on sick leave to have his operation which he ended up having soon after the coup.


    How convenient. It must have been his gall bladder acting up. Nothing to do with his personality. Nothing he can be actually blamed for.

    Yes, I lived with a wife with gall bladder problems. It was no fun for me but of course much worse for her.

    Check the timing of events and you will see what I mean.

    Oh I am also sure Rudd is human with all the failings that go with that.

  15. I also think it is madness to alter the Carbon Pricing Mechanism now in place. The policy is good. It is working. Leave it.

  16. So many questions for Tony Burke and yet he hasn’t found the need to tell anyone to #calmdown. #ThatsHowLaborRoll
    #calmdownbridie

  17. Tom Hawkins@1012

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/swan-backed-me-for-his-job-albanese-20130709-2pn7o.html

    Albo and Swan can work together. How about we all took a leaf from their book.

    Swan should be back in the ministry after the election IMHO. But not as Treasurer and not in a role where serious salesmanship is required.

    It seems he could see the necessity for Gillard to be removed and did not stand in the way. Good on him.

  18. gecko agree yes it would cause confusion
    voters don’t understand technical stuff ,, only what come in to their wallets or goes out,

    sadly

  19. triton@1020

    Albo doesn’t strike me as a techie type. MT might have his measure on NBN.

    That is a good thing!

    The audience is predominantly non-technical types and the message needs to be non-technical.

    If Turnbull just goes off raving technical stuff he will lose.

  20. Ministers don’t need to have technical expertise in the portfolio area; in fact, a little bit of knowledge is usually worse than none at all. They need to be able to understand their brief, be able to communicate it to stakeholders and the media and be good at pushing their stakeholders’ line in cabinet.

    That’s all.

  21. [IMO Albo did a very poor job of counteracting Malcolm’s “positive sell” of Fraudband last night. Albo not up to speed on NBN yet.]
    I agree!
    Dog help us if Turnbull issues a challenge to Albo to debate the NBN.

  22. my say

    The guy that did the video question on uploads was the James Brodie that did the speed test comparison that went viral.

    MT avoided the upload question.

  23. “@Steph_Philbrick: Tony Abbott in “still a sexist prick who just doesn’t get it” shock. Expect insincere non-apology at midday. #CalmDownBridie”

  24. “”Albo doesn’t strike me as a techie type. MT might have his measure on NBN.””

    Anybody with a ounce of knowledge knows MT is full of crap!.

  25. bemused, possibly, but technical issues (speeds) are central to the policy differences between the sides. I don’t see how that can be avoided. I didn’t see Albo on NBN, but posters who did say he didn’t do well, and maybe that’s the reason.

  26. MB Labor are in charge because the media loves Kevvie. Not really sure why but they do. In fact the ABC has gone a bit feral about Kevvie so I may have to bitch about media bias 😉

  27. Turnbull may well be full of crap but it is the perception that one has authority over their brief.

    I love Albo and felt he was given a raw deal last night.
    Evident by my most unsavoury outbursts last night.

    However, when he had the opportunity to sell the NBN he floundered.

  28. “Sky News running with Abbott/book expenses”, but rest assured the ABC never will – the true gatekeepers of right-wing values in this country, not wishy-washy pinko fellow travellers like Murdochs mob.

  29. I just backed Turnbull to be coalition leader at the election at $22 and the price dropped to $5. Someone stuck their neck out!

  30. The big danger now is that the combination of the rapidly changing polls, panic in LNP ranks and the Abbott book expenses scandal will force the Libs to switch to Turnbull – a bad outcome for Labor and Rudd.

  31. My Say

    [yes but what mt said,, was it all correct

    any one know]

    Two pieces of BS I remember:

    He said Labor’s NBN would cost $90b then later upped it to $100b.
    He then said replacing the short distance of copper from the nodes (Liberal policy) to the home represented three quarters of the cost of Labor’s NBN.

  32. Sky can no longer ignore Abbott’s deficiencies/mendacity because he is FINALLY being challenged in pressers.

    Notice it is young journos, who probably aren’t favoured ‘pets’, who break the stories (or Margo Kingston …. whose untethered position allows her to employ her ethics)

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