Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@868
WHAT!!!! you mean she was one of the plotters and not simply forced to take on the role?
I am shocked. 👿
“I didn’t open that door. Because I closed it later.”
Nice logic, Tone.
Did your puppet master give you that line?
Yes bemused, that was a little revelation that seems to have escaped everyone’s attention, but I cam imagine how profoundly shocked you are that St Julia may not have been telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Tom
I think you are wrong on the pie shops
You will be surprised at the electricity/gas bills of bakeries etc. Even quite a small bakery eg brumby’s will be looking at $50,000 per year.
There IS an issue for all small businesses that use more than 100,000 KWH/yr but are not big enough to get attractive discounts.
Also the retailers have been gouging the smaller players and duping them.
For example I can cite examples where the CT has directly caused a 50% increase in the electricity bill. The problem occurs when the business had negotiated what seemed like a very good per KWH rate with the retailer (eg 5c/kwh. When the 2.3c/KWH CT is added to the bill the price per KWH goes from 5c -7.5c – typically a 40-75% increase.
Of course there are compensating discounts that complicate the picture, but there are real issues with the carbon price on smaller businesses
A big move in the betting markets overnight.
The coalition out to $1.30 ALP $3.40. Those who took the $8.00 and $9.00 a few weeks ago must be laughing right now.
I guess Gillard is no longer a koala. 🙂
Lenore Taylor talks of a poll done by a company called Lonergan Research. Two party preferred 50-50 with Labor’s primary on 40%
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/08/kevin-rudd-bolster-labor-pms
triton
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 10:11 am | Permalink
The expenses thing should have come to light long before now. He’ll get away with it because he’s paid it back. It would have been a lot harder for him if it had come out before then.
——————————————————-
The $9000 claimed to promote his book is but the tip of the iceberg. We should see some heat over Abbott travel/accommodation/comcar claims when he was out doing his charity work.
He claimed travel for the kilometres he rode while on PolliePedal and other bike rides. He claimed flights and accommodation for fun runs and the like.
Does your boss pay for your charity work? NO. So why should the taxpayer pay for Abbott’s charity work?
The point with the rorts over travel allowances for the book, is that it may bring to light other instances, such as pollie pedal, where he claims travel allowances. These may be perfectly within the rules, however,it doesn’t look good to the public, many of whom know that they would lose their jobs under similar circumstances.
kimworldwide @kimworldwide 11m
Abbott presser: 1 journo doing her job. Bravo!! #auspol #abcnews24
=============================================================
\
abbott must be talking somewhere twitter are describing
it I as loosing it
“@bkjabour: Can’t believe Abbott told me to calm down! RT @jonathanvswan: Who is this reporter? She’s tenacious.”
Garlo’s Pies, visited by Abbott, is not a small business. Their website describes the company.
http://www.garlospies.com.au/about-us
[…As the word spread about the quality of their pies, Garlo’s Pies became available in Coles Supermarkets across NSW in 2010. This was followed by IGA Supermarkets, which launched Garlo’s Pies in 2012.
Garlo’s Pies now manufacture over 10,000 pies a day and are in the process of fitting out a brand new 1350 sq. metre facility.They service a wholesale customer base of over 400, which now include a number of Catering Companies and Distributers which extend as far as North QLD. So, you shouldn’t have to go too far to find a Garlo’s Pies stockist near you!]
In the interest of getting “the whole truth”, how about we get the whole quote from the transcript of the show?
[MARIAN WILKINSON: But back in 2010 senior Labor ministers were deeply divided about the decision to bring down Rudd. The night of the coup, Simon Crean now reveals, he raised his concerns directly with Gillard.
(To Simon Crean): You had gone to Julia Gillard and had personally told her ah, that you did not think this was a good idea. Is that a correct account or not?
SIMON CREAN: It is and I didn’t think it was a good idea. I did not. But at that stage, not only had the issue advanced um, the lady was not for turning.]
Haydn
This is the second poll in two days that has the ALP primary with a 4 in front. If this happens on election day the ALP win despite the 50:50 headline.
Lonergan Research conducted 1,369 “robopoll” surveys across Australia over the last weekend. It found the Coalition’s primary vote was 44%, the Greens 9% and “others” 7%, leading to a two-party preferred result of 50% each for Labor and the Coalition if preferences are allocated as they were directed in the 2010 election. The poll has a margin of error of 2.64%.
—————————————————-
Don’t panic yet Sean, there is a light a the end of the tunnel.
But be careful, that light could be an on-coming train.
Its a new paradigm guys.
Leave raking over leadership to the history books
@abcnews: “#Faceless men” @billshortenmp and @howespaul back @KRuddMP’s plan to reform #Labor leadership election process http://t.co/6jPqbnAyCd
I’m amazed you guys need someone to tell you that JG had decided to challenge. Given that the past 3 years did in fact happen, I would have thought it was obvious :P.
margo kingston @margokingston1 18h
.@bkjabour, thanks for intelligent, informed @guardianaus report on #Battlerort! There is hope! http://gu.com/p/3h5pc/tw #makehimanswer
=======================================
guytuar it must be margo Kingston
so she got a press pass
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Tony Abbott denies
I think I prefer the new paradigm to the old one.
Chickens coming home to roost…
display name, of course that’s not news to any one
that was taking notice
Ruawake,
I agree. With a 50-50 result there will be swings and roundabouts from state to state but clearly Queensland has the potential to decide the matter.
citizen
If the extra $1000 per month is true this equates to cost of good sold increase of 0.4 cents per pie!
Devastating!
AussieAchmed
[The $9000 claimed to promote his book is but the tip of the iceberg. We should see some heat over Abbott travel/accommodation/comcar claims when he was out doing his charity work.
He claimed travel for the kilometres he rode while on PolliePedal and other bike rides. He claimed flights and accommodation for fun runs and the like.]
Has he been asked about those other things yet? It’s amazing that politicians keep getting into trouble over travel rorts. You’d think by now they’d make sure they are squeaky clean, a party leader with so much to lose in particular.
adrian
[Yes bemused, that was a little revelation that seems to have escaped everyone’s attention, but I cam imagine how profoundly shocked you are that St Julia may not have been telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth.]
What revelation? Gillard did challenge Rudd for the leadership. What did Crean say that’s new?
Bridie Jabour
Bridie Jabour
@bkjabour
or this one,, is guardian
@bkjabour
Guardian Australia journalist. Views aren’t the Guardian’s though they’re probably fairly similar when it comes to the Australian cricket
50/50 2PP means we it can go either way or result in another hung parliament. Basically too close to call.
I doubt it will stay at 50/50. I think enough people want a result this time that gives one side or the other a majority government.
my say, it seems to be news to some people here! Given that she went ahead with the challenge, she must have made up her mind to do so at some point, however reluctant she was prior.
so Adrian but I hope u or your family do not
need NDIS
so can we leave the nasties and disrespect at the gate please
If the LNP install a new leader Turnbull being obvious choice will that mean LNP embracing NBN Fibre to the Home?
guytuAR
TURNBULL COULD NOT THEN TURN AROUND AND DO THAT
HE would be seen for what it is hyocritical
guytaur, Turnbull has spent quite a bit of time and energy putting together his plan, he may not be able to give it up.
display name the last was well thought out., I wonder?
with in hours tim said how happy she was and relieved
my say
We all Turnbull was handed the poison chalice. Plus LNP seem to do hypocrisy the best.
[If the LNP install a new leader Turnbull being obvious choice will that mean LNP embracing NBN Fibre to the Home?]
Yep, provided that its private sector. Who cares if its more expensive.
triton
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 10:31 am | Permalink
AussieAchmed
The $9000 claimed to promote his book is but the tip of the iceberg. We should see some heat over Abbott travel/accommodation/comcar claims when he was out doing his charity work.
He claimed travel for the kilometres he rode while on PolliePedal and other bike rides. He claimed flights and accommodation for fun runs and the like.
Has he been asked about those other things yet? It’s amazing that politicians keep getting into trouble over travel rorts. You’d think by now they’d make sure they are squeaky clean, a party leader with so much to lose in particular
——————————————————–
I haven’t heard him being questioned and not see any media of him being quizzed.
It took a lot of social media activity to even get the MSM to ask the limp questions about the $9000. How much will it require to get them to even read the other stuff? Let alone show some “balls” and ask a question.
guytaur, Turnbull hasn’t embraced FTTH so far, has he? Turnbull lost his job for embracing government policy (ETS), so I don’t think he would do that again.
no its jolly joe, for the show
bogans would not vote for turnbull , and tunbull on a shock jok show never,
I think Albanese kept very quite last night and let MT do all the talking, some great adds there about the liberal
broadband.
NOT
davidwh @ 975
Agree. Once the masses realise Labor is in the game (couple more poll cycles?) I reckon more of the vote will break for Rudd. PROVIDED he and the party don’t self immolate. All looking good at the moment.
[guytaur, Turnbull has spent quite a bit of time and energy putting together his plan, he may not be able to give it up.]
He could give it up in an instant if he became leader.
This is hilarious. Tone couldn’t believe his luck. Just when he thought he’d escaped from Stalag Luft 13, the siren goes off, the searchlights snap on, the dogs start barking, shots are fired. F**k.
citizen, I’m just wondering if he’s convinced himself of what he’s saying. If he has, he won’t choose to drop it.
cud chewer
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 10:37 am | Permalink
If the LNP install a new leader Turnbull being obvious choice will that mean LNP embracing NBN Fibre to the Home?
Yep, provided that its private sector. Who cares if its more expensive.
———————————————————-
This is where I think the costs of the NBN are being misrepresented. While the Govt is spending money to construct the NBN, when it is completed the Company will be sold off, much like Telstra.
So whatever money is spent by Govt will be recouped when NBN is sold. The cost is irrelevant unless it is sold for less than Govt invested.
Antony Green on 24 showing the 1.02 metre long ballot paper for 2013 election.
my say, I believe that the new paradigm includes the NDIS unless you know something that the rest of us don’t.
And try to refrain from nasty personal references that you don’t have a clue about.
I am happy to vote for your rudd Adrian but leave
the good things and great policies Julia did alone,
===========================
or alienate some people here
there is nothing that annoys me more than so called smugness
AussieAchmed, I didn’t see the presser but I got the impression from the comments here that Abbott was given a hard time on expenses. Since Rudd took over the press seem to be poking sticks at Abbott a bit more (e.g. over debating Rudd). Maybe now they are up for giving him a good grilling on expenses.
Now that people are sitting up and paying attention, now is the time for Labor to start running ads demonstrating their economic competence, talking about how the carbon price really works, talking about how the pink batts were successful.. preempting all the predictable negative attacks the Liberals will drag out, and also pointing out that the Liberals don’t have one credible policy.
They should be doing this now whilst the change of leadership is getting people to sit up and think.
[If the extra $1000 per month is true this equates to cost of good sold increase of 0.4 cents per pie!
Devastating!]
So if I bought a dozen pies to put in the freezer it will cost me less than 5 cents extra under carbon pricing?
Devastating indeed! 😉
“@senthorun: Looks like we’re getting magnifying glasses to read the 6-point font of the upcoming election ballot papers. Fun times. #ausvotes”
well if u took it as being nasty
that really is your problem not mine
its a fact, none of know we may need need ndis
that’s afact of life,
thank goodness we have it,, that’s my point
so leave Julia alone and concentrate on kevin
her name will be up there as the best PM re policy we ever had rudd will have to still prove that,
after our granddaughter was born, we realised we needed
ndis,
that’s my point,