Bit of a difference of opinion this week between Essential Research, a series renowned for its stability, and the Morgan multi-mode poll which, until now at least, has adhered very closely to the overall polling trend. The former has the Coalition ahead 52-48, as it did last week when it took the unusual step of publishing a figure for the polling period immediately following the leadership change, instead of its usual fortnightly rolling average. The major parties’ primary votes are also unchanged, with Labor on 38% and the Coalition on 46%, while the Greens are down a point to 8%.
Morgan on the other hand gives Labor an eyebrow-raising lead of 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 51.5-48.5 on last time, although on the more trustworthy measure of previous election preferences the result is a slightly less striking 52.5-47.5, up from 51-49. This is the first time the Morgan multi-mode series has produced a substantial disparity between the two measures, and it’s in the opposite direction of the issue which bedevilled the old Morgan face-to-face series, in which preferences flows to Labor were unrealistically weak. The primary votes are 41.5% for Labor (up two), 39.5% for the Coalition (down one) and 8.5% for the Greens (unchanged).
The Essential poll also gauges views on the leaders’ attributes, which should make enjoyable reading for Kevin Rudd, who is widely rated as intelligent, hard-working and capable, and not seen as narrow-minded, intolerant or out of touch. His worst results on negative measures were for arrogant and erratic, while his weakest on positive measures were for honesty, trustworthiness and being visionary. Abbott rated well for hard-working and intelligent, as political leaders generally do, but also scored high for narrow-minded, arrogant and out of touch. Fewer than a third of respondents thought him trustworthy, honest or visionary.
Forty-nine per cent of respondents thought Labor would be more united in the wake of the leadership change, against 14% for less united. Other questions found a general view that the election should be held sooner than later, and produced unsurprising results on asylum seekers, the NBN, mining tax, carbon tax, disability insurance and the education reforms formerly known as Gonski.
[I am wary of the changes requiring 75% of caucus approval for a petition. Labor is a party not one person and it should have the right to alter leadership wherever it sees fit. If a problem exists a 75% requirement will see the Party ruined long before it can be fixed.
It is the Party not the leader that rules. Rudd is not a President… leadership is an honor bequeathed, not a right… the Party should make this perfectly clear right from the outset or it will suffer the consequences and cede control.]
I have to agree here.
The party can make replacing the leader harder, sure. But how does that fix any of the problems that make people want to replace the leader in the first place? If you disagree with the leader, what can you do? Try an even bigger destabilisation campaign? Challenge them in pre-selection? Leave the party?
Even in the USA the President has to run in the primaries like everyone else, to get on the party ticket.
OPT
I defer to your much better knowledge on Gorton. I was quite young at the time, and while I was very familiar with Holt and to an extent McMahon, Gorton sort of slipped by. I am aware he was popular with many.
DTT
[Bad workmen blame their tools or their bosses. I was always a bit sceptical about Roxon. She is very close to Shorten, and like it or not it was HER task to sell the Health policy.]
Roxon gave an example:
[“But many of those things, including the biggest proposals that Kevin wanted to act on, he wanted with four days notice on one occasion that I can recollect, to take over the entire health system, didn’t have any materials for cabinet, didn’t have legal advice.”]
Unless you think she made that up I don’t see how you can blame it on shortcomings of hers as a minister.
Abbott live from a Sydney pie shop… Wonder if they sell pies of the pork variety?
[NEWS ALERT!
Abbott to hold a press conference shortly at a Sydney PIE SHOP!
I kid you not!]
The pies are 10% smaller due to the carbon tax?
The SAS will throw pies at unwanted asylum seekers?
Centrebet odds are changing very fast.
Labor now into $3.40, LNP $1.30 but changing quickly.
Centrebet has pulled all individual HoR seat betting for now.
Things are massively in flux, they realise.
[NEWS ALERT!
Abbott to hold a press conference shortly at a Sydney PIE SHOP!
I kid you not!]
I wonder if he’ll order the Humble Pie.
No, a bit too early for that. Save that one until election night Tony.
[Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 9:00 am | Permalink
Abbott is still ahead in the betting market!
He can’t lose from here]
Off to the turf accountants wi’ ye then. Bet everything you have to win two bob if you’re that sure
Abbott and Hockey at a pie shop
‘We will scrap the carbon tax’
Yep.
BoerWar
I note your point of view, but I think I will leave this for now. I think we have to agree to disagree on this, and just observe how things unfold in the lead-up to the election. Post election, there will be plenty of time to debate matters of leadership, whether in Government or Opposition.
Abbott: This shop, Garlo’s Pies, is thriving… But without the carbon tax it would be even better
An extra $1,000 a month caused by carbon tax, says small business operator. Obviously untrue.
Labor at $3.40 sounds like a better bet- won’t get those odds again in a hurry…might take my own advice.
[Abbott and Hockey at a pie shop]
With Hockey present I hope the pies are out of arm’s reach
Hockey at a pie shop – will there be any left for Tony?
Triton
I am not denying the truth of waht Roxon was saying.
Rather I am saying that that sort of urgency is actually not atypical of policy making – at least not in the big league. You need to have already done your homework – ie have legal advice in advance.
I am NOT trying to denigrate Roxon – she always seemed competent to me but in the real world in policy as a cabinet minister she should already have had in her back pocket legal advice on all possible options.
Indeed IF her public servant briefings were any good at all she would have had a comprehensive briefing paper addressing perhaps 5-6 options from the most extreme – ie full Federal take over to the status quo. It is just a childish whinge to say – I had not advice – why have you NOT got legal advice . Rudd would have been quite correct in giving her a bollocking.
I can assure you that cabinet submissions sent to Rudd in the Qld years would have addressed the legal issues across a full range of scenarios. Legal and constitutional issues would have been addressed.
Any YES I have done just this as a public servant.
Policy does not always suit meticulous academic types
Good Morning
Abbott presser now
Hockey: new line of ‘Emperor Rudd’
Carbon tax hitting business, electricity costs, skyrocketing expenses etc.
First question – $9000 expenses!
Abbott not answering Journo on expenses
Journalists smashing Abbott on $9000 expenses
[An extra $1,000 a month caused by carbon tax, says small business operator. Obviously untrue.]
That means their energy bill $120,000.00 over a year! That’s not a pie shop – that’s a large chain of pie shops. This really is total desperation stuff from Abbott and Credlin.
Bill Gissane is confident in Fisher, John Faulkner was up here last week coaching him.
Amazing. Not a good look for Abbott there.
He is going to get many more questions on expenses now
“This is Labor party spin”
“No its not, it’s from the media”
“Let’s move on”
SportsBet are still showing odds for individual seats and Labor is shortening fast in many seats. Currently $1.30 and $3.40 overall from $1.22 and $4.00 last night.
‘The clear result in the Newspoll is that we need an election now’
“@RobMitchellMP: Why wont Abbott answer questions on his travel rorts? #battlerorts”
“@latikambourke: PM Rudd on election timing ‘guess what, Mr Abbott doesn’t get to decide [the election date] the constitution does.’”
Boats now
Look at Hockey… Looks shattered
More expense questions
Abbott being pressed many many times on expenses… Refusing to answer
Can anyone be more “faceless” than an unknown party member?
Glory
Not just Hockey. Young guy on left not exactly a happy camper
Thanks for those keeping the lounge posted on Abbott’s Pie presser. It sounds delicious 🙂
Now Nick Dole going through expenses story
🙂
[Abbott being pressed many many times on expenses… Refusing to answer]
He’s had 72 hours to come up with an explanation but having lied yesterday when asked he is now being hung out to dry. Credlin has no more strings to pull on her sad puppet.
‘Hagiography is not history.’
You’d know all about hagiography.
Before being a complete idiot and calling someone ‘mentally ill’ and ‘not the full quid’ without a shred of evidence, perhaps you need to pull your head in and remember that we still have defamation laws in Australia.
Quite honestly, you make me sick with your moronic obsession.
I just caught the last two minutes from the pie shop.
It’s panic time from Tone!
I love that Rudd cancelled the election date, now he’s waving it in Abbott’s face at every opportunity, and it really is rattling him. Also, who would have thought we’d ever see the day when Hockey was allowed in a pie shop without handcuffs?
“@sortius: Oh, that’s why Tony has stopped flashing the leaflets: reminds people of #Battlerorts #auspol”
It’s early days, hubris etc…
But Hockey looked sick standing there.
“@jonathanvswan: “I didn’t claim travel allowance, I never claimed travel allowance” – Opposition Leader Tony Abbott”
I think it’s obvious that Credlin’s rattled.
And an important announcement from Tony Burke at 1045 EST.
The expenses thing should have come to light long before now. He’ll get away with it because he’s paid it back. It would have been a lot harder for him if it had come out before then.
Here it is. The Credlin Cadillac!
http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4587472840164238&pid=15.1
Liberal faceless men
News Limited was willing to pay dearly for this story not to be published. It first offered a $110,000 payment, plus a private apology, to avoid going to court. But the price it demanded was that the matter be kept confidential. The company was told to take a jump. See you in court.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-and-culture/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-20091025-hem5.html#ixzz2YVDf8pAc
Personally I think the $57,000 pay grab in QLD will help Labor much more than Abbott’s expenses. At present the QLD LNP is doing more for Labor than Rudd if that is at all possible. Their timing is really dumb.
Is Abbott really just refusing to answer questions on his expenses rorts? I guess he thinks it will just fade away as has happened all his life thus far.
“@sortius: Shouldn’t @TonyAbbottMHR step down until all claims of misappropriation of expenses are settled? He demanded same of @PeterSlipperMP #auspol”