Seat of the week: Dobell

The central coast New South Wales seat of Dobell has mostly been in Labor’s hands since its creation in 1984, but the travails of sitting member Craig Thomson have presumably raised the bar on their chances of retaining it again this time.

Held by troubled Labor-turned-independent MP Craig Thomson, Dobell covers the urban areas around Tuggerah Lake just beyond the northern coastal reaches of Sydney, including the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance, lower income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south through Wamberal to Terrigal, the demographically unremarkable northern Gosford suburbs of Lisarow and Wyoming, and state forest further inland. Terrigal and its immediate surrounds are strong for the Liberals, forming the basis of a fairly safe seat at state level, while the Gosford area and the electorate’s central and northern regions have traditionally been finely balanced.

Dobell was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and held from then until 2001 by Michael Lee, who served in cabinet through the final term of the Keating government. Lee survived a 6.7% swing amid Labor’s 1996 election defeat to hold on by 117 votes, but a 1.8% redistribution shift in favour of the Liberals would prove decisive at the 2001 election, when Liberal candidate Ken Ticehurst picked up a 1.9% swing to prevail by 560 votes. Ticehurst substantially consolidated his hold with a 5.5% swing at the 2004 election, but even this proved insufficient to stave off an 8.7% swing to Labor in 2007.

The seat has since been held by Thomson, who had previously been national secretary of the Health Services Union. The first intimation of the trouble that awaited Thomson came with allegations his union credit card had been used to misappropriate around $100,000 for purposes including payment to a Sydney brothel, which he claimed had been fabricated amid a backdrop of internal warfare within the union’s Victorian branch. After surviving a preselection challenge by local union official David Mehan, Thomson became one of only four New South Wales Labor MPs to pick up a swing at the 2010 election, his margin increasing from 3.9% to 5.1%. However, his political career began to unravel the following June after he withdrew a defamation against The Age over its reporting of the credit card allegations. A lengthy Fair Work Australia investigation into the union ended with civil proceedings being launched against Thomson in October 2012, with fraud and theft charges following in early 2013.

Thomson’s membership of the ALP was suspended in April 2012, and in May he announced he had resigned from the party to stand as an independent. After delaying preselection proceedings until this time, Labor finally endorsed Trevor Drake, a former deputy mayor of Gosford who had been a Liberal Party member between 2004 and 2008. Drake emerged as the only candidate when nominations closed, with earlier named contenders having included Wyong Hospital executive Emma McBride (whose father Grant McBride is a former state member for The Entrance), former state Wyong MP David Harris, Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and the aforementioned candidate from 2010, David Mehan.

An initial Liberal Party preselection in December 2011 was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. Whitaker prevailed over WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara, in what was reported as a defeat for the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke and the locally powerful member for Terrigal, Chris Hartcher. However, Whitaker soon faced trouble over allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. The following April, the party’s state executive voted to dump Whitaker as candidate and install McNamara in his place.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,142 comments on “Seat of the week: Dobell”

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  1. It is starting to look as though “boats” is really all the conservatives have.

    It this item sinks both in actuality and symbolically, they are finished.

    No wonder there is a sense of panic and hysteria from the likes of Bishop and Morrison.

    All credit for Rudd, so far, for taking it right up to them on the issue.

  2. Roger Miller @ 1945

    A 10 minute press conference where Abbott umms and aahs, then scuttles off before answering the hard questions does not a working day make, at least not in any job I’ve ever heard of.

  3. Ahh Guytaur

    Are you proud of Milne’s insistence that Rudd hurry and calls the election?

    We wouldn’t want the Greens to be held responsible for the carbon tax and held irresponsible on boats now would we?

    Peak Pewny, oh they’re going down, down big time. Can’t wait 🙂

  4. davidwh

    Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    Guytaur the SAS are the most well trained people in our armed services to take and secure a position. It doesn’t always have to involve firearm use and in fact under some circumstances they may be the ones to do it in the most safe way.

    Talk of shooting UA’s is just silly.
    ——————————————————–

    this NOT the type of operation the SAS are trained to undertake.

    This is more a Police type operation. Police are trained to deal with this type of “hostage” taking and threats.

  5. [No way in the known universe is the US going to alienate the world’s largest Muslim nation, and a country that is shaping up as one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economies, to support a minnow on the world stage like Australia.]

    Indeed. But, historically, there’s far more reason to believe there’s not a snowdrop’s in hell of the US rushing to an Abbott Government’s aid!

    During the Indonesian-Oz Confrontation over West Papua and later Konfrontasi (April 1964 and August 1966) the then Liberal government tried to enlist USA aid, on the basis of the ANZUS Treaty.

    The US refused. Outright. Despite our involvement in Vietnam, with Conscription to provide the gun-fodder. Not within the Treaty’s “spirit”. Not their Problem.

    And some confounded idiots think the US – which has its own huge & very politically inflammatory Democrat v GOP+Tea Party problems with illegal immigrants – would come to Abbott’s aid?

    Where does the Liberal Party find them?

  6. OzPol Tragic #1956

    Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 2:11 pm
    And some confounded idiots think the US – which has its own huge & very politically inflammatory Democrat v GOP+Tea Party problems with illegal immigrants – would come to Abbott’s aid?

    Where does the Liberal Party find them?
    ———————————————————

    Psychiatric hospitals. One Nation meetings. Private Schools

  7. centre

    I think Milne is wrong on the election date.

    I do not hate the Greens nor do I follow them as if I was a part of a cult.

    Your unreasoning blathering about the Greens speaks for itself

  8. The Greens will be left standing with THEIR very own unpopular fixed price carbon tax.

    That won’t be enough to finish the Greens but their loony policy of allowing asylum seekers free entry into the country will.

    R.I.P. 😎

  9. Centre

    The fixed price part of the Carbon Price belongs equally to Labor; Greens; Windsor and Oakeshott.

    What the private starting point was I and you do not know because we were not in the meeting.

    Stop fantasising and accept reality.

  10. @guytaur/1963

    I agree with you on that, but however, Greens were still being unrealistic by using that as a condition to form goverment.

  11. guytaur

    It’s Milne’s policy, Milne’s insistence, and it ended the prime ministership of Julia Gillard.

    It’s a FACT, everybody knows it, Bob Brown admitted it on national television on Q&A

    Like their original NON NEGOTIABLE economically irresponsible reduction targets of carbon emissions – if you are ashamed of Greens policies…too bad, you own them!

    The Greens could end with a 6 in front of their polling on election day.

    Now wonder Milne wants an election now 😆

  12. zoid

    The period of time was determined by PMJG determined to give business stability. Agreed to by all.

    That is what PMJG has said about when asked. If PMJG did not agree then I do not see her signing just for nothing. PMJG agreed because the whole package was best thing for the nation.

    That was a political decision. So you cannot blame the Greens for that.
    If PMJG did not think that it would not have happened of this I am certain.

  13. Centre

    You really do not think much of PMJG. Time for you to have a rethink on what you are saying about PMJG and her decisions.

  14. One thing I would like the Greens to explain is what were the issues that made them vote for ETS 2.0 and not for ETS 1.0 .

  15. poroti

    Stop passing the buck!

    It doesn’t matter who recommended what. The fact is that the Greens policy comprised a fixed price carbon tax.

    You can’t compare the Greens’ carbon tax scheme with the fixed price element of the CPRS, they’re light years apart.

  16. @guytaur/1968

    Being a minority government doesn’t guarantee all passage of bills will be introduced.

    Even if the package was all agreed upon.

    The devil is always in the detail.

  17. guytaur @ 1970

    LOL stop shifting the debate onto Julia. Yes the prime cause of the ending of her prime ministership was as a consequence of the Greens’ carbon tax.

    Don’t be ridiculous!

  18. zoid

    Which is why you can only say that what was agreed upon was the reality. Otherwise you have to have been in the meeting.

    All we know is that the Carbon Price we have now is owned equally by all the parties at the meeting. Labor Green Windsor and Oakshott.

    There is no Green Carbon Price or Labor Carbon Price et al. There is only the one legislated Carbon Price the one owned equally by all the parties that agreed to it.

  19. poroti

    The Greens have claimed that ETS1 locked in lower targets and to them that was unacceptable.

    That is the one I remember.

  20. Centre

    BTW it may have escaped your notice, but Newspoll shows an increase in Green voting intention for Qld as expressed to Newspoll

  21. @guytaur/1977

    So now the question is will they agree to ETS?

    @guytaur/1978

    So we only had THEIR word on it.

  22. It may very well be my fault that this Greens v Labour stuff has started up. If so, I apologise. The common enemy is the LNP and that’s where the attack should be launched.

  23. Centre

    Why do you keep calling it a “tax” ? We have a carbon trading scheme with an initial fixed price. Do you really think it would have been better if business’s had been just chucked in the deep end ?

  24. zoid

    Neither of us have been in meetings. We can only go by what is said in public and compare to results when outcomes negotiated.

  25. guytaur

    Rubbish 😆

    Stop running away from unelectable Greens policy. You can’t even admit you are a Green 😆

    It is a fact that Bob Brown, on Q&A himself, as clear as crystal, in front of a national audience, said that the carbon tax was…Milne’s baby 😆

    WOW, Greens policies are not like that other indestructible Green character, The Incredible Hulk, like the Greens always thought their policies were – hey ;):)

  26. David, the Libs want to dictate Indonesia’s AS policy by restricting financial aid to them if they don’t accept turning back the boats.

  27. centre

    Despite what some have stated I am not a Green and never said I was.
    Neither am I Labor.

    The closest label is progressive.

    Get over your hatred of the Greens. Start by accepting science on their conclusion about coal and 84% of worldwide reserves staying in the ground.

    That is not a Green statement or a Labor statement its a scientific statement.

  28. Tom Hawkins

    Very true. As long as he has a chance of getting in stopping Abbott’s steaming C(arbon) R(eduction) A(ction) P(lan) is where the the fight should .

  29. poroti

    HELLO

    Christine Milne christened it a tax on the very same day, immediately proceeding the governments press conference to introduce carbon pricing.

    Another FACT the Greens can’t bring themselves to admitting.

    *I’m going, no point debating lunatics*

  30. Centre

    Your 1985. Never complain about the Greens claiming credit for Labor policy then.

    Truth is Brown was right and wrong. The other parties own it equally that is what signed agreements mean.

    That is reality. Not only that they also all voted for it in Parliament. Owned by all that voted for it.

  31. @Centre

    All your obsessive Greens bashing will not rewrite history, no matter how painful that history may be. The fact is, that it was Gillard who buckled under media pressure and conceded that the fixed price, something that had also been a part of Rudd’s CPRS, was a tax. That was the end for her. She gave the msm and the opposition exactly what they were after, the means to attack her for breaking the no carbon tax. There of course is, and never has been, a carbon tax. There is a fixed carbon price, which moves to an ETS in 2015, or maybe earlier. The fact that Gillard could not sell that and in fact conceded it was a tax is hers and Labor’s problem, certainly not the Greens problem.

  32. The Greens played ETS politics in the hope of getting control of The Senate in the 2010 election. It worked.

    They are a political party after all.

  33. It seems that half the Labor powerbrokers want a quick election to save as much furniture as possible before the dugar hit wears off. The other half actually think Labor can win but will need more time to build up a lead.

    Quite a quandary.

  34. Toff

    No quandary. Just guessing games.

    My personal guess is its going to be later. I think Labor is going to win. What is more important is that I think PMKR thinks the same.

    Thats my guess.

  35. I am starting to think that the election may end up being on Rudd’s birthday, September 21st. I am just not sure whether the Government would be keen to bring back Parliament. I think if Rudd is going to bring back Parliament, he needs to have a very, very good reason and strategy for doing so, and I believe it would be a high risk strategy. Calling it for September 21st would mean it called one week prior to Parliament’s current scheduled next sitting date, giving Rudd another good six weeks or so to mess with Abbott’s mind.

  36. [Morrison says send in the SAS. That is military force meaning government policy is to use that force. That is to shoot the asylum seekers.

    Yes its silly rhetoric. LNP silly rhetoric.]

    Oh, dear! Not another history lesson for Abbott’s know-nothing brigade!

    Hello Nuremberg defense!

    [The Nuremberg Defense refers to a legal strategy employed by many of the defendants at the Nuremberg war crimes trials seeking to convict Nazi perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Second World War. Many of those defendants claimed that they were not guilty of the charges against them as they were “only following orders.” …

    Article 33 of the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court, allows the Nuremberg defense to relieve an individual of criminal responsibility provided: (a) The person was under a legal obligation to obey orders of the Government or the superior in question; (b) The person did not know that the order was unlawful; and (c) The order was not manifestly unlawful.

    Nuremberg Principal IV

    This principle, one of many drawn up in the run up to the Nuremberg trials, states: The fact that a person acted pursuant to order of his Government or of a superior does not relieve him from responsibility under international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible to him.]

    IOW, if Abbott’s government were to order Australian Defence Personnel (Naval, SAS or whatever) to breach International Law, inc by

    * breaching relevant sections of UNHCR Convention and Law of the Sea, to both of which Australia is and has, for a long time, been a signatory;

    * breaching Indonesian sovereignty by illegally entering its Territorial Waters; or

    * engaging in Acts of Piracy, by unlawfully boarding one or more vessels in International Waters.

    under Nuremberg Principal IV, Australian Defence Personnel are NOT RELIEVED from responsibility under international law, provided a moral choice was in fact possible DESPITE the fact that a person acted pursuant to order of his Government or of a superior

    IOW, in trying to force Australian Defence Personnel to breach the above International Laws, and Indonesian sovereignty, any such Australian Government leaves Defence Personnel, who try to reinforce/ follow the Government’s orders, liable to criminal action by the International Criminal Courts.

    If people die as a result of such an order, persons who reinforced/ followed orders can be tried for murder/ other crimes.

    The Indonesian Government knows that, and will, as it has avowed, refuse permission for the Australian Navy to implement a Tow back the boats policy. It will also refuse permission for any RAN ships to enter Indonesian Waters to implement the Tow back the boats policy.

    Abbott and Morrison know that. If they try it on, they themselves might face the International Criminal Courts.

    The Navy knows that, hence its extreme reluctance to enforce the policy – Australian lives/ freedom would indeed be at risk – those of its personnel.

    All these “turn back the boats” promises are merely pre-election propaganda, Abbott & Morrison are simply dog whistling racists & antiIslamic fanatics who are actually ignorant enough to believe that, assurances of more level heads (inc Defence personnel) to the contrary, an Abbott Government can, in fact, Turn back the Boats

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