Held by troubled Labor-turned-independent MP Craig Thomson, Dobell covers the urban areas around Tuggerah Lake just beyond the northern coastal reaches of Sydney, including the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance, lower income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south through Wamberal to Terrigal, the demographically unremarkable northern Gosford suburbs of Lisarow and Wyoming, and state forest further inland. Terrigal and its immediate surrounds are strong for the Liberals, forming the basis of a fairly safe seat at state level, while the Gosford area and the electorate’s central and northern regions have traditionally been finely balanced.
Dobell was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and held from then until 2001 by Michael Lee, who served in cabinet through the final term of the Keating government. Lee survived a 6.7% swing amid Labor’s 1996 election defeat to hold on by 117 votes, but a 1.8% redistribution shift in favour of the Liberals would prove decisive at the 2001 election, when Liberal candidate Ken Ticehurst picked up a 1.9% swing to prevail by 560 votes. Ticehurst substantially consolidated his hold with a 5.5% swing at the 2004 election, but even this proved insufficient to stave off an 8.7% swing to Labor in 2007.
The seat has since been held by Thomson, who had previously been national secretary of the Health Services Union. The first intimation of the trouble that awaited Thomson came with allegations his union credit card had been used to misappropriate around $100,000 for purposes including payment to a Sydney brothel, which he claimed had been fabricated amid a backdrop of internal warfare within the union’s Victorian branch. After surviving a preselection challenge by local union official David Mehan, Thomson became one of only four New South Wales Labor MPs to pick up a swing at the 2010 election, his margin increasing from 3.9% to 5.1%. However, his political career began to unravel the following June after he withdrew a defamation against The Age over its reporting of the credit card allegations. A lengthy Fair Work Australia investigation into the union ended with civil proceedings being launched against Thomson in October 2012, with fraud and theft charges following in early 2013.
Thomson’s membership of the ALP was suspended in April 2012, and in May he announced he had resigned from the party to stand as an independent. After delaying preselection proceedings until this time, Labor finally endorsed Trevor Drake, a former deputy mayor of Gosford who had been a Liberal Party member between 2004 and 2008. Drake emerged as the only candidate when nominations closed, with earlier named contenders having included Wyong Hospital executive Emma McBride (whose father Grant McBride is a former state member for The Entrance), former state Wyong MP David Harris, Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and the aforementioned candidate from 2010, David Mehan.
An initial Liberal Party preselection in December 2011 was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. Whitaker prevailed over WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara, in what was reported as a defeat for the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke and the locally powerful member for Terrigal, Chris Hartcher. However, Whitaker soon faced trouble over allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. The following April, the party’s state executive voted to dump Whitaker as candidate and install McNamara in his place.
Although it has never been made public there can be little real doubt that Howard got the tick from the US before the Timor intervention. As a corallary, it is just as likely that the US would have given the quiet word to Indonesia.
Just in case anyone was thinking of playing silly buggers, the US had moved a naval TF to somewhere north-east of Timor.
Gilbert had formed the view that the Coalition, in this case a combo of Morrison and Bishop (and doesn’t that make your head spin) had sent out mixed messages on asylum seekers.
I am not sure of the substance but Bishop was doing measured gravitas on Insiders while Morrison was doing foam-flecked to anyone who wandered within spitting distance.
At the very lest, the Coalition’s styles were mixed.
Boerwar @ 1900
The simple answer is because the media will not do the simple putting of 2 + 2 together as you have and clearly state that ‘Stop the Boats’ is a con. It’s a con that feeds off the media’s refusal to provide honest background information when they can so much more easily play up conflict for sales.
Morrison with his send in the SAS has a new slogan for the LNP
Shoot the Asylum Seekers.
@guytaur/1904
Sounds like the Shooters Party has invaded Federal Coalition Party as well.
Alex Scott @alextogether 10m
LNP govt now says the electorate allowance was in fact a salary ‘top up’. I wonder what they told the Taxation office?
Retweeted by Possum Comitatus
Ratsak
‘Stop the Boats’
I was referring specifically to ‘turning back’ the boats.
Everyone except the smugglers, those smuggled, and those who cream the smugglers on the way through, wants to stop the boats.
Turning boats around is a policy option with very limited application given current circumstances however it’s the type of policy that appeals to many people.
The Global Mail @TheGlobalMail 1m
Coalition won’t be “blackmailed” by asylum seekers threatening self-harm, says Abbott/Morrison http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/we-wont-buckle-to-selfharm-blackmail-abbott-20130708-2plig.html … via @smh
Hey folk, (to use a favourite phrase of Our Termite),
Dio was being ironic about the USA helping us with the AS issue. :p
davidwh
Not when people realise that means shoot Asylum Seekers
[If I travel on business I recoil at the prospect of paying $20 for breakfast!
Poor little darling!]
If not B&B’ing, I buy cereal, fruit, coffee bags & powdered/UHT milk – stay in el cheapo digs & eat at markets stalls or “ethnic” cafes/ restaurants – even if I were on a funded trip. I’m still basically a Frommer’s “Europe on $15.00 a day: Starvation Budget” traveller. If I’m going to
“waste” money, I prefer to do so on something that appreciates.
Turn back the boats is another non policy, just like direct action and fauxNBN. They are the policies you have so you can point to your pamphlet and say “WE have a PLAN for all Australians”, but everyone knows don’t actually mean anything. Its not about having a policy, its about letting people think they know what the policy actually is. Believe in climate change? Then Direct Action has the SAME target as Carbon Pricing. Don’t believe? Then Climate change is crap and you know the policy is not about reducing carbon emissions. Stop the boats. You can believe either “that those poor people on dangerous boats, we have to be able to stop them getting on”, or you can believe “send in the Navy to torpedo them”. The more they have to be specific about policy the worse they will look.
There will be no debates because there is no policy. This week it is “tell us when the election is”. When the election date is known it will be something else.
Oakeshott Country
ROTFL 🙂
Yes if we elect the Liberals they will sort out Indonesia just as successfully as Howard’s commitments to Iraq and Iran turned out. Boy we sure showed them. And what quick, decisive victories too.
BW,
I used ‘Stop the Boats’ interchangeably with Turn Back as in the end that’s really all the Coalition ‘policy’ amounts to (TPV’s will have as much effect as Labor’s ‘no advantage’ policy – nil).
So the point remains. I certainly agree it’s a waste of time talking about turning them back because it isn’t going to happen. But we’ll be stuck talking about it until either (1)the media actually stops giving bullshit a free pass and points out the inherent impossibility of it or (2)Abbott gets into government (although I think Labor will be very interested in asking Tony when the boats will be turned around in the second scenario).
Guytaur how many UA’s have shot over the years? Who would shoot them?
That’s just silly rhetoric that gets ignored in Voterland.
King of the Road @ 1913
Precisely. They are a ‘choose your own adventure’ policy. The Libs give you a few general headings and you can fill in the blanks with your own wishlist.
davidwh
Morrison says send in the SAS. That is military force meaning government policy is to use that force. That is to shoot the asylum seekers.
Yes its silly rhetoric. LNP silly rhetoric.
The SAS has been used in the past without anyone being shot. I think they are trained to do things other than shoot people Guytaur.
[“China is comfortably the largest country in the world today. In January 2013, the Chinese Government released data confirming that the population of China was an impressive 1,354,040,000.”]
Actually, I don’t see large populations like that as “impressive”. I see them as a growing problem which sooner or later is going to cause huge problems for the human race.
Maybe Tony Bourke should hurry up and hold a full press conference condemning Scott Morrison’s cheap rhetoric.
It’s a battle between Common Sense Australians v Racist Australians.
We have one here – Sean Tisme!
davidwh
You do not send in the force if you are not prepared to use it.
Thus the policy is clear. It is the logical conclusion.
Tone’s new slogan: “Stop Debates!”
EMC
2PP: ALP 48 (+1) L/NP 52 (-1)
Voting Intention: ALP 38 (+2) L/NP 46 (0) Greens (-1) Others/Independents 7 (-2)
Plus some interesting leadership attributes stuff
http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_130708.pdf
Burke on 24 now
Centre I think it’s just about winning votes. The confusion in the broad community over UA’s is staggering and both sides are to blame. Yep the Coalition rhetoric may be more nasty but there is not a lot in it these days.
EMC Leadership attributes – Rudd vs Abbott:
Intelligent: Rudd +17
Visonary: Rudd +17
A capable leader: Rudd +16
Good in a crisis: Rudd +15
Understands the problems facing Australia: Rudd +12
More honest than most politicians: Rudd +11
Trustworthy: Rudd +10
Hard-working: Rudd +5
Erratic: Even
Superficial: Abbott +3
Arrogant: Abbott +5
Aggressive: Abbott +7
Intolerant: Abbott +9
Out of touch with ordinary people: Abbott +11
Narrow minded: Abbott +21
[davidwh
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 1:12 pm | Permalink
Essential virtually the same as last week’s single week result. 52/48 to Coalition and 38 and 46 primary results.]
Still overstating the Libs pv IMO.
Guytaur the SAS are the most well trained people in our armed services to take and secure a position. It doesn’t always have to involve firearm use and in fact under some circumstances they may be the ones to do it in the most safe way.
Talk of shooting UA’s is just silly.
I just noticed Christine Milne virtually demanding that Rudd hurries and calls an election.
How dare you, you loudmouthed lunatic!
Milne is not in a position to demand or request anything. If the Greens want to withdraw their support from the Labor Party well go ahead and give it to Abbott.
Labor should PUT THEM LAST for once and for all, they’re nothing but a nuisance and a hindrance 😡
spur212 @ 1927
Its over for Abbott ?
davidwh
[That’s just silly rhetoric that gets ignored in Voterland.
]
You’d think so. But back in the early “noughties” when Howie ramped up the AS issue local redneck radion was always on where I worked.Grrr. Anyways over a couple of months what was had been an occassional call to blow a boat out of the water or shoot any AS that made it to shore became a barrage calls. It was truly feral mob stuff.
davidwh
One day the self harm will be a case of throwing oneself in front of SAS guns to get different outcome. Its only a matter of time with desperate people.
If you are not willing to use the force you do not send it.
Darn agree on the LNP primary being generous.
Conservative Australian PM in 1939……..”It is my sad and sorry duty to inform you that Australia is at war with…………..Germany” (wtte)
Conservative Hopeful in 2013…………..”It is my sad and sorry duty to inform you that Australia is at war with………………Indonesia”
What is it about conservatives that they love war?
Goodness, and they say a leopard doesn’t change its spots.
A new meaning for the word “help”:
[TONY Abbott has plans to cut $1b worth of red and green tape, as the Coalition considers using special forces troops to help asylum seekers.]
This headline for a paywalled Telegraph article today seems to redefine what “help” is.
[Burke on 24 now]
Straight after post 1921
Sheez I’m going good 😛 😀
If Abbott was forced (only after denying that he had done it, and claiming he was the victim of a Labor ‘smear campaign’) to pay back the money he claimed in travel expenses while he was out promoting his book ‘Battlelines,’ how do these charity events differ? They are not by any stretch of the imagination related in any way to his job as LOTO, where the taxpayer has elsewhere funded his high visibility stunts at factories and shopping malls for years, and these jaunts are broadly accepted as being part of his role in selling his half baked policies and criticising the Government.
These charity events, whilst manifestly and transparently self serving in their sole purpose of portraying Abbott as a man of vigour and strength, cannot in any way be spun as part of his job – would your employer, or mine subsidise such activity by any of us with fully paid accommodation and travel reimbursement?
Not in a month of Sundays.
[Apparently he has said the LNP would send in the SAS to force asylum-seekers to turn around. Unbelievable. They really are confirming Rudd’s statement that the LNP would run the risk of starting a very serious diplomatic dispute with Indonesia that could easily escalate. Dumb, dumb and dumber.]
The problem with some of the posters here is when they think they are “winning” they are actually “losing”.
Like the blue-ties thing… an absolutely and complete stuff-up by Gillard that turned off most men voters and annoyed even women voters. The coalition have been making jokes about blue-ties ever since to point out just how stupid the comment was. Of course in here the Paralel Universe that is Poll Bludger her speech was a masterpiece and we just weren’t getting the genius in the blue tie comment.
Now we have Rudd “winning” because he is kowtowing to the Indonesians every whim. I don’t think this playing out in the electorate the way Labor thinks it is, in fact I think Labor are coming off as gutless because most Australians are distrusting of the Indonesians and most think they are in bed with the people smugglers… which they are.
Perhaps we need another poll…
It has been pointed out that the USA has “turn the boats” policy.
It hasn’t stopped the boats. For all the years the Coast Guard has been “turning” boats around they still keep coming.
It is a policy that has been proven that it does not work.
[spur212
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
EMC Leadership attributes – Rudd vs Abbott:
Intelligent: Rudd +17
Visonary: Rudd +17
A capable leader: Rudd +16
Good in a crisis: Rudd +15
Understands the problems facing Australia: Rudd +12
More honest than most politicians: Rudd +11
Trustworthy: Rudd +10
Hard-working: Rudd +5
Erratic: Even
Superficial: Abbott +3
Arrogant: Abbott +5
Aggressive: Abbott +7
Intolerant: Abbott +9
Out of touch with ordinary people: Abbott +11
Narrow minded: Abbott +21]
Spur
If I didn’t know better I’d think you made all that up. What an indictment of Abbott those figures are. Rudd’s certainly got plenty to work with.
Guytaur any of our armed service people can be armed. The difference with the SAS is they are specially trained to handle the most difficult circumstances. There is probably less chance a SAS person will over-react than less well trained personnel.
But look if people want to get either enraged by or excited by hypothetical circumstances then by all means go for it.
Send the SAS onto a foreign flagged ship if they request assistance with refugees who have threatened to kill themselves if not taken to Christmas Island.
Refugee: “If I’m not taken to Australia I will kill myself”
SAS: “If you try to kill yourself we will shoot you”
[I just noticed Christine Milne virtually demanding that Rudd hurries and calls an election.]
I wonder why
[EMC
2PP: ALP 48 (+1) L/NP 52 (-1)
Voting Intention: ALP 38 (+2) L/NP 46 (0) Greens (-1) Others/Independents 7 (-2)]
Oh, that’s why. If Labor shave .5% of the Greens vote each week for a month then it spells real problems for her.
The Big Ship
Every day Tony is on his bike ride he does a presser. This makes it official business. It also makes it not so much a charity event, as a self promotion event.
davidwh
You can try and spin your way around it as much as you like. However.
That means government policy is to use that force. If not you do not send it. It is that simple.
Training may mean that use of that force can be minimised however it must be a prerequisite that a government that sends in a military force is prepared to use that military force.
Are you worried Sean Tisme?
Of course Abbott leads, it’s not even a real contest yet, but it may be heading towards one 😉
Damn………..It looks as though the cheap Bali holidays may be over.
@davidwh/1929
I find the use of SAS as use of force, more expansive way too.
He was going on about turning around boats, now he is getting more personal.
Use of SAS.
Roger Miller
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 2:03 pm | Permalink
The Big Ship
Every day Tony is on his bike ride he does a presser. This makes it official business. It also makes it not so much a charity event, as a self promotion event.
——————————————————–
He should have “Sponsored by Australian Taxpayers” emblazoned on his lycra