Held by troubled Labor-turned-independent MP Craig Thomson, Dobell covers the urban areas around Tuggerah Lake just beyond the northern coastal reaches of Sydney, including the coastal retirement haven of The Entrance, lower income Wyong on the interior side, the tourist area from Bateau Bay south through Wamberal to Terrigal, the demographically unremarkable northern Gosford suburbs of Lisarow and Wyoming, and state forest further inland. Terrigal and its immediate surrounds are strong for the Liberals, forming the basis of a fairly safe seat at state level, while the Gosford area and the electorate’s central and northern regions have traditionally been finely balanced.
Dobell was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1984 and held from then until 2001 by Michael Lee, who served in cabinet through the final term of the Keating government. Lee survived a 6.7% swing amid Labor’s 1996 election defeat to hold on by 117 votes, but a 1.8% redistribution shift in favour of the Liberals would prove decisive at the 2001 election, when Liberal candidate Ken Ticehurst picked up a 1.9% swing to prevail by 560 votes. Ticehurst substantially consolidated his hold with a 5.5% swing at the 2004 election, but even this proved insufficient to stave off an 8.7% swing to Labor in 2007.
The seat has since been held by Thomson, who had previously been national secretary of the Health Services Union. The first intimation of the trouble that awaited Thomson came with allegations his union credit card had been used to misappropriate around $100,000 for purposes including payment to a Sydney brothel, which he claimed had been fabricated amid a backdrop of internal warfare within the union’s Victorian branch. After surviving a preselection challenge by local union official David Mehan, Thomson became one of only four New South Wales Labor MPs to pick up a swing at the 2010 election, his margin increasing from 3.9% to 5.1%. However, his political career began to unravel the following June after he withdrew a defamation against The Age over its reporting of the credit card allegations. A lengthy Fair Work Australia investigation into the union ended with civil proceedings being launched against Thomson in October 2012, with fraud and theft charges following in early 2013.
Thomson’s membership of the ALP was suspended in April 2012, and in May he announced he had resigned from the party to stand as an independent. After delaying preselection proceedings until this time, Labor finally endorsed Trevor Drake, a former deputy mayor of Gosford who had been a Liberal Party member between 2004 and 2008. Drake emerged as the only candidate when nominations closed, with earlier named contenders having included Wyong Hospital executive Emma McBride (whose father Grant McBride is a former state member for The Entrance), former state Wyong MP David Harris, Wyong Shire councillor Lisa Matthews and the aforementioned candidate from 2010, David Mehan.
An initial Liberal Party preselection in December 2011 was won by Gary Whitaker, former Hornsby Shire councillor and managing director of a local educational services company. Whitaker prevailed over WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara, in what was reported as a defeat for the Right faction forces associated with state upper house MP David Clarke and the locally powerful member for Terrigal, Chris Hartcher. However, Whitaker soon faced trouble over allegations he had lived for several years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. The following April, the party’s state executive voted to dump Whitaker as candidate and install McNamara in his place.
Imacca, I think the question was whether he had claimed expenses during his pollie pedals. He denied it. The media let him get away with it.
[Whit Goughlam @leftocentre 6m
.@TonyAbbottMHR when asked if he claimed expenses on his book promotion tour replies – “I did not”
Lying on film Tone?
#auspol]
Hehehehe
[Tattered Remnant @TatteredRemnant 6m
That was Abbott’s pitch? “Voters need to give ALP some time in Opposition”. So inspirational. I’m quivering]
guytaur
[“@latikambourke: Scott Morrison says turning back boats will include risks but that’s the job the Navy is asked to do and has ‘complete confidence’ they will”]
A navy boss cocky a while back said that if a ship’s captain was given an order which contravened the Law of the Sea he would expect the captain to obey the Law of the Sea.
[So Morrison will turn back the boats even if Indonesia doesn’t take them. Nice one Scott.]
Well they are their boats… why should we take what isn’t ours?
@Lizzie/1853
I’m sure Abbott would LOVE to see Labor in Opposition for 2 terms or more.
Still doesn’t convince me to vote for a twat.
Whit is probably right. The point is: how can he possibly deny either when we have the parliamentary records? Is he so confident that the media will continuebto protect him?
does scott morrison realise there is 220 million
people just in Indonesia.
I would think I would be talking trade not provocation
scary, and to add to that there are many millions in the countries above and beside,\
putting us at risk for few boats
I know what I would sooner have
no provocation, and good trade
how scary are this lot, add this to the list
provoking our nearest neighbours.
The Coalitions turn back policy has, as it was always going to the minute it actually came under proper scrutiny, completely unravelled. The reality is, that without Indonesian cooperation, it is unworkable. In any case, the smugglers will be ready this time round, and no doubt if this policy was ever to see the light of day, boats would be rendered unseaworthy as soon as they come in to contact with the Australian navy, then what? Oops, not safe to toe the boat back to sea.
Rudd’s conflict with Indonesia comments were meant to bring the turn back policy under the scrutiny that until then it had avoided. It has worked. Whatever people’s thoughts on Rudd, he is a very clever politician.
[does scott morrison realise there is 220 million
people just in Indonesia.]
Does Indonesia know we are allied with the U.S.A which has the most technologically advanced army, navy and airforce in the world?
And what does any of this have to do with turning back Indonesia’s boats, from Indonesian ports, crewed by Indonesians back to Indonesia? They don’t like it? Well get out of bed with the people smugglers.
As I said the other day while I don’t believe the turn back the boats policy will work nevertheless Australia shouldn’t allow Indonesia dictate our policy on UA’s. I don’t see anything more terrible about turning boats around when it is safe to do so than sending 800 unlucky souls back to Malaysia. It’s just policy differentiation at the sake of refugees.
Does Indonesia know we are allied with the U.S.A which has the most technologically advanced army, navy and airforce in the world?
Have the Indonesians seen what is in the corner of our flag? By Jingo, these damn darkies are in for a shock if they take on Tony Abbott.
next thing they will be talking national service
the are one scary lot,
that must be stopped
now they would ruin our economy over a few boats
because the rest of asia may decide to take sides with
Indonesia.
re trade . I know I am on the worst case scenario here
but we should be thinking far reaching, as to what could or may happen with macho abbott as p,m
Oh yes and may I point out being forced to accept INDONESIA’S boats into our territory because the Indonesians demand it to be so pretty much amounts to a peaceful invasion.
How dare Labor hand over Australia’s sovereignty to Indonesia and it’s people smugglers?
“Does Indonesia know we are allied with the U.S.A which has the most technologically advanced army, navy and airforce in the world?”
Geez an didn’t they back us up in East Timor ?
oakshot u do jest
don’t u
as if, the usa would rise their trade with china,
I am sure you are tongue in cheek
yes if this was taking seriously it could escalate
do u GET SEAN TIS ME,u could en up a conscript
u sound young to me,
@Sean/1860
Using the defense of “We have Allies like the USA?” well fark me, what have they done for us?
1. PRISM.
2. Wars.
3. Causes GFC.
So you go to the USA if you want to use USA as your evidence.
@Davidwh/1861
It’s not a matter of of Indonesia dictating our policies, they have as much right as we do.
risk their trade.//with the china
I gather that the presence of ST means that School Holidays are still on.
Sean Tisme
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 12:02 pm | Permalink
So Morrison will turn back the boats even if Indonesia doesn’t take them. Nice one Scott.
Well they are their boats… why should we take what isn’t ours?
——————————————————
yes we should send the boats back…after we have accepted the refugees from them
@AA/1870
Then you can bomb them.
g
‘bw
Yet results show good om the policy front. Labor working with Indonesia to make stopping the boats and busting the people smugglers model a reality in the only way it can happen.
LNP still doing the slogan for bogans approach’
On the asylum seeker policy front, IMHO, the Labor Government has been as close to total failure as it is possible to get.
I agree with Psephos: talking with Indonesia will make little or no difference.
There are a number of reasons. Even if the Indonesian National Government wanted to stop the asylum seekers they most likely could not. It is not a command and control government. Apart from that, Indonesia’s governance is moving in the direction of major devolution. Even if the Central Government wanted to do stuff, were it to be opposed at the regional and local level there would be great difficulties in getting a policy implemented. Finally, Indonesia has thousands of islands and in the order of hundreds of thousands of small boats pretty well scattered across the entire extent of Australia’s northern coastline.
Australia’s solution to what it defines as boat borne asylum seeker issues does not lie with Indonesia. It lies with Australia.
so sean wants a world war over boats
=============================================================
wAnswerStatistics show that approximately 3,000 Mexicans try to cross the United States border everyday. Out of that number, an average of 2,200 persons get caught, leaving an estimation of around 800 illegal aliens entering the United States border every single day. For a detailed article, please visit: http://www.ackland.org/education/k12/handoutpdfs/Mexico.ord s with mexico read this
=============================================================
so 800 people come to the usa every day you don’t hear Obama talking like morrisson
I can find u some other stats from Europe if u like
we have drip in a tap number coming here,
and people whinge wake up
Yesiree Bob
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 12:20 pm | Permalink
I gather that the presence of ST means that School Holidays are still on.
———————————————————-
its exercise time at the psych hosp
imacca,
[So, there wasn’t a great deal of substance to their policy launch. How surprisiment]
I missed the subject of the launch. Was it their scotch mist policy?
your a laugh a minute sean and what’s the population of
china, and who are their allies
Search Results
1.344 billion (2011)
China, Population
000.5B0.5B1.0B1.0B1.5B1.5B196019701980199020002010
=======================================================
there u go sean,,, that’s the population of china
still in the mood for turning back boats
@Boerwar/1872
Sending out Navy does not work well either.
there was a movie mad something or other
reminds me of it
all this talk
https://twitter.com/GeorgeBludger/status/354061843427381248/photo/1
@My say/1876
http://worldpopulationreview.com/population-of-china/
“China is comfortably the largest country in the world today. In January 2013, the Chinese Government released data confirming that the population of China was an impressive 1,354,040,000.”
HootSuite HootSuite @hootsuite 4 Jul
A social media command center for the 2013 Australian Federal Election: http://owl.li/mFmV4
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Retweeted
Scott Morrison has taken the bait Rudd laid out – hook line and sinker.
Apparently he has said the LNP would send in the SAS to force asylum-seekers to turn around. Unbelievable. They really are confirming Rudd’s statement that the LNP would run the risk of starting a very serious diplomatic dispute with Indonesia that could easily escalate. Dumb, dumb and dumber.
Anyone who thinks the US would back Australia in a dispute of this nature with Indonesia is living in fantasy land.
Didn’t you notice the way the US more or less washed its hands of East Timor and let John Howard do all the messy stuff?
No way in the known universe is the US going to alienate the world’s largest Muslim nation, and a country that is shaping up as one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economies, to support a minnow on the world stage like Australia.
So Australia was dumb enough to join the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? You really think that’s going to help when realpolitik cuts in. Don’t forget Barack Obama lived in Indonesia as a child, not that is a major factor, but this notion we have a rock solid alliance with the US that counts for more than lip service is really quite delusional.
OC:@1812
And I think almost everyone wanting to preserve a good chance of an Abbott defeat wants a later date than September 14. IMO that date is most likely to produce either an Abbott rout of PMKR or the exact opposite. One of them will stumble before their own audience and be utterly discredited.
So if you want a big win but are willing to risk a big loss to get it, you should favour a late date. A big loss to Abbott would mean that PMKR would be out of political life, so for me, there’s a silver lining even if Abbott would be repulsive. I’m also willing to risk a big PMKR win based on seeing Abbott driven from a chance leading the country and his whole approach discredited. I get some of what I want either way.
PMKR would be impregnable, but that’s an absolute state, and so probably not measurably more impregnable than if he lost or won narrowly yet these would ensure there was bitterness for years to come and Abbott’s party might continue to believe in the idea that they could win by trolling. That said, another minority regime would be a slap in the face for Murdoch and his minions and we Greens would be more germane. The fact that I prefer a late election shows I’m not being partisan here. I believe Christine Milne is pushing for an early election. I don’t agree with her if that’s so. There are bigger fish to fry, which is an odd thing for a vegetarian to concede. 😉
I just caught part of rAbbots presser on his policy of reducing regulations, and noticed towards the end, he still can’t control the smirk that creeps across his dial whenever he goes in for the mandatory attack on all things Labor.
What really got my ‘pen to paper’, was the thought of the 4 deaths by people ignoring regulations (not fed. Labor’s fault), and how such numbers might grow under willy nilly reductions in regs. to secure bonuses by public servants.
[davidwh
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 at 12:14 pm | Permalink
As I said the other day while I don’t believe the turn back the boats policy will work nevertheless Australia shouldn’t allow Indonesia dictate our policy on UA’s. I don’t see anything more terrible about turning boats around when it is safe to do so than sending 800 unlucky souls back to Malaysia. It’s just policy differentiation at the sake of refugees.]
The problem with it David is that it is NEVER going to be safe to do so.
Also, listening to our neighbour’s point of view and acting accordingly is not necessarily the same as allowing them to dictate our AS policy. It is just good diplomacy, a thing which neither Abbott or Morrison have any clue about.
@Fran/1883
Which would explain the demand from Abbott for an early election.
Spider
That is the sort of question that would cause his head to fly off his shoulders if someone put it to him.
If the MSM want fireworks to sell papers and attract listeners/viewers then there’s a keg of dry gunpowder called Tony Abbott. Someone please throw a match in his direction and watch him explode.
[DisplayName
OzPol, the real question is whether you’ve received proper training for posting comments on internet forums :)]
Nyaah! there was no “Internet” when I started posting. We used AARNet, Aussie version of StanfordU’s ARNet (Academic Research Network) & posted on “threads”. Our primary training “mode” was Self-Selected/ Directed Learning (aka “Trial, Error & Frequent Frustration”) inc How not to have an RRNet-induced breakdown. After hitting the “send” button, I’d have time for a leisurely lunch, chat etc before returning to the computer. With a lot of luck, the screen would again show the thread & I could begin composing the next post.
Having done most of my study by External Studies/ Distance Ed, in the days when “study notes” were skimpy, out-of-date (sometimes by a decade or more) or a page or two, or a book list + past exam papers (understatement, not exaggeration!) I probably fared better than those who’d been coddled, full-time internal students.
Posts all had to be coded in what became HTML (took ages) on very very slow, stuttering connections with multiple drop-outs. BTW, there was no other way of saving a page but to shut down the computer correctly. If the network stuttered, we’d lose everything.
All of which was like lightspeed compared to early70s online “literature” searches!
Saving even one page of a normal (ie no HTML, not online) typed composition (on my new home Amstrad286) was so slow I’d time for a shower, coffee break + housework/ phone call/ crosswords etc. Today (unless it’s PB, esp around 8.00am) I can save in the blink of an eye.
The IT Revolution? Been there, done that, bought the TeeShirt, wrote the initial online units (real “books”, with rigorous Instructional Design; not what my “notes” were in the 60-70s), drove myself up the wall … and, all-up, had that wonderful, satisfying, if frustrating time one does breaking barriers, esp in Distance Ed; though teaching online created a huge workload, not only in writing, but the 100s of hours it took to replicate my theory-bases on line, then to find and select appropriate articles & book chapters to create on online version of “volumes” of articles/ chapters pertinent to the course.
For me, the real frustration (and expense) of DE had been lack access to library resources for people who were hundreds if not thousands of Ks from appropriate libraries. The only ways to beat that had been (a) buying every book needed to complete the course & assignment requirements (b) travelling to libraries etc which had the resources needed to complete the course: documents, vac schools, conferences etc – not to mention a motza in library photocopier costs!
Online & with libraries supplying (at a small cost) what students needed – plus a great deal of time (though balanced by time saved because I’d only have to tweak/ update them thereafter) I could free students from the costly frustrations of my own DE studies.
QLD had proved to the world that all education – primary, secondary, trade, uni undergrad degrees – could be taught as well by mail to individual students at home, with some technological (initially pedal-radio) back-up, as it could in “real” schools etc. UNE extended degrees to PostGrad.
UK Open University, academics from which spent time at UQ during the early 60s to prepare for its DE launch, introduced online teaching – and returned Qld’s favours by visiting my uni to help us introduce internet-based international DE.
In ED, there’s currently a revolution as great as the replacement of local (inc chain-store) “bricks & mortar” selling & buying with Globalised, internet-based selling & buying. As great (but less conspocuous) has been multi-nation/ globalised/ online-multimedia education, that’s been bubbling along for two decades, all but unnoticed by some/ most policy developers.
Yet it’s as least as efficient as “bricks & mortar” education; but much cheaper, and with much greater promise of internet-based, Globalised schools without walls, drawing students from all online nations to share “real-time” classes. Indeed, some Aussie schools have also been doing this (but on copper-based phonelines) for two decades.
How do Aussies cope with Asian Tiger cubs in schools & unis? With the lack of proficiency in Asian & in other languages? Go to school in the same classrooms in the same digital world, of course!
But I don’t think that reality’s yet dawned on policy makers, esp most Liberal policy makers; though it has on Indies and Nats, many of whose seats cover areas which first joined “correspondance” Ed in the pedal radio days & have continued to do so!
Off the soap-box now!
Abbott and Company thin four deaths from an Industrial Action is a political weapon. Strange they have not thought of what a weapon the SAS shooting people especially ones threatening self harm would make.
Of course that does assume someone in the LNP does think.
Sorry don’t know what is wrong with me today.
First sentence at 1889 should read:
[Abbott and company think four deaths from industrial accidents is a political weapon.]
Essential this week indicates the Morrison position has more traction than the Rudd position on UA’s. Not sure Rudd acting subservient to SBY will go over as well as people here think.
[Does Indonesia know we are allied with the U.S.A which has the most technologically advanced army, navy and airforce in the world?]
Just when you think you’ve reached the level of peak stupid…
The US can with a high degree of confidence factor in Australian firepower in most shooitng matches they choose to start. The opposite does not apply.
If Abbott and Morrison were stupid enough to provoke Indonesia (and thankfully I believe they are simply disgusting liars rather than batshit insane) the US will do what it always does – assess where it’s interests lie and act in accordance.
If they did assess that their interests were threatened they’d much more likely arrange for the Australian PM to be replaced via some quiet words in receptive ears than to go to war with Indonesia. A US war with Indonesia over Abbott trying to compensate is about the least likely scenario that could possibly be imagined, even with a full nutjob Tea Bagger as POTUS. Won’t happen.
Sean
There is only one way to stop the boats and since Tone is not offering it, he wont be stopping the boats.
The only way is a blanket no for anyone that is on a boat.
Of course this brings me to Tone’s reducing regulations policy.
I am yet to hear him address the overly complex immigration process.
The Canadians apparently have a 1 page immigration.
[Essential this week indicates the Morrison position has more traction than the Rudd position on UA’s. Not sure Rudd acting subservient to SBY will go over as well as people here think]
Of course not. People’s thoughts on asylum seekers are not logical so you can’t win them over on logic. It’d be better to just spend as little time as possible talking about the issue.
KrPM on 24 now
One thing seems to have been forgotten.
Abbott and Morrison turn back the boats carrying asylum seekers.
In retaliation, Indonesia turns back the boats carrying live cattle from Australia.
Has Abbott explained how he will compensate the NT cattlemen?
z
‘@Boerwar/1872
Sending out Navy does not work well either.’
It does not work at all, IMHO.
Our navy should be constantly readying itself for main battle warfare. The symbolism is entirely wrong. We are not waging war on asylum seekers. Using the navy is bad for morale. And using the navy wears out big, very, very, expensive ships for no srategic gain.
One absurdity that we can do without, IMHO, is rescuing people from ships that are sinking in Indonesian’s S&R zone. These zones are delineated by international agreement and the general rule is that the country that owns the zone does the rescues.
At the very least we need a coast guard division of the navy. The patrol boats could be rebadged the coast guard. The primary functions would be anti-smuggling, fisheries and offshore platforms patrols and the secondary one would be search and rescue.
[Does Indonesia know we are allied with the U.S.A which has the most technologically advanced army, navy and airforce in the world?]
Yes it has been very successfull in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan along with numerous other conflicts in the 20th century.
Essential virtually the same as last week’s single week result. 52/48 to Coalition and 38 and 46 primary results.
There will never be another turned back boat because:
(a) the Coalition have a rider, ‘when it is safe to do so’ and we all know it will never be safe to do so because the smugglers will sink the boats in order to ensure cargo delivery.
(b) Labor does not have a policy of turning back the boats.
So, why is something that has zero per cent relevance receiving 99.99% of policy discussion time?
It is bizarre.