First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …
Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.
When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.
Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.
The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.
[Come to think of it you and TP do seem to be mirror images…]
Mate I don’t go around slagging Gillard in a personal way, or even grossly personal way. My cricticisms of Gillard were that she was a good Administrator type but a national leader, that she is politically naive and bumbles too much, and demeaned herself by heading down to dog whistling…that she was great at internal politics but not the other. Reasonable criticisms.
I have denigrated her personal character and in fact I think very very few non-Gillard people have actually attacked her personally. Yet we had a consistent mantra of personal attacks and meme building on Rudd, even one attacking the relationship between Rudd and his Wife (funny that, given the similar issue of Gillard and her partner).
I am nothing like BW. But I have been consistent with my message all along, as have others, and have been correct all along.
Boerwar
True to your name you are boring everyone to death and making this blog almost unreadable since Thursday.
Please do us all a favour and take a break after you take your medication.
[1091
Fran Barlow
briefly:
I think nearly everyone in the country would be relieved if this running sore could be soothed and allowed to heal.]
Because this is basically about our distress at being called upon to relieve the far greater and longer standing distress of others. Persuasive, really.]
It would be persuasive if it were accurate. But it is not. The Afghans now arriving here by sea have had settled lives in Pakistan or Iran, in some cases since the Soviet war. In other cases those being trafficked here are of Afghan descent but were born in Pakistan or Iran. They now face repatriation and – perhaps understandably – seek to avoid that. While they are certainly being displaced, they are not fleeing persecution. However, because of the operations of the Immigration Act, they are able to obtain “protection” here.
Are you really trying to argue that people who are not fleeing persecution should be able to obtain settlement here simply because they have the means to pay for their passage?
There is an alternative, which is to create a legal discretion for the Government to decide when the Convention will apply, and when it will not. So, for example, were there to be strife in PNG, Malaysia, The Solomons, Fiji or Indonesia that led to an exodus, then the principle of “non-return” should apply. But there is no reason this principle should be able to be invoked by persons who are not fleeing persecution.
We should have a policy of welcoming and settling refugees. But this is not the same thing as running a system that encourages human trafficking.
Take a cool shower folks with the polls. They are as skittish as cats on heat.
When we get really close to the election date – and I reckon this is still some weeks away yet, then start placing your bets.
However, having said this, as the whole political machine seems to be oiled by polls and more polls and they themselves become more than just indicators, but predictors, then who is to say they are not right?
Live by the poll. Die by the poll.
I think this gives new meaning to the word po”ll”-axed!
[I have denigrated her personal character]
I have NOT denigrated her personal character
http://theconversation.com/ethical-lapses-by-journalists-contributed-to-gillards-demise-15595
[That’s why Labor should be a little patient on an election date. Allow some time for potential leadership tensions on the other side to fester.]
It will also provide time for everyone to remember what they didn’t like about Rudd in 2010. But he does need time to do the major policy fixes Labor needs to do, mainly reversing Rudd’s own 2008 policy on boats, and also the carbon price. There are arguments both for going early and for going late. I think going late is gaining ground.
One of those new android htc phones!
Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM.
FilR
[But it doesn’t really change the point of the summary set out in the SMH article – that Sky was awarded the tender three times by an independent panel, including the last time while Conroy had ministerial responsibility.]
You missed the Richardson’s career as a ‘diplomat’ and who his overseer was in the Dept of Foreign Affairs in your interpretation.
In other words, add 2 + 2 and you’ll find it equals 4.
New thread.
[1052
confessions
The leadership change was supposed to Save The Furniture. Only what’s happening now is that the furniture is deciding to leave of its own volition!]
lol
I have however spoken to the next Labor Campaign Director for the seat of Perth, who reckons it is winnable if Allanah runs. So maybe an old lamp-stand will be replaced by an antique bookcase.
Perfect result, not bad enough yet for LNP to dump Abbott. I’ve always thought the campaign will be worth 2 to 5 % to ALP when Abbott has to perform.
[Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM]
Wow!
How’s the climate change denial thang workin’ for ya ?
[Western US states baked by blistering heat wave
Western US states are baking in an extended heat wave, with temperatures threatening to break the all-time high recorded on Earth.
In Phoenix, Arizona, the mercury hit 47C (116F) on Friday, and in the desert of Death Valley, California, the thermometer approached 51C.
The heat wave is expected to last through the weekend.
]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23107652
[David Penberthy tweets Galaxy poll has “Rudd caning abbott as preferred pm and labor close to victory”.]
Would not rush to polls if I were Rudd. If he is able to campaign as 2007 and connect with the public in a similar way then there is more furniture to be saved. It is also increases the panic in Abbott and co…and they are bound to make the mistakes of the politically naive.
1153
briefly
[1091
Fran Barlow
briefly:
I think nearly everyone in the country would be relieved if this running sore could be soothed and allowed to heal.
Because this is basically about our distress at being called upon to relieve the far greater and longer standing distress of others. Persuasive, really.]
It would be persuasive if it were accurate. But it is not. The Afghans now arriving here by sea have had settled lives in Pakistan or Iran, in some cases since the Soviet war. In other cases those being trafficked here are of Afghan descent but were born in Pakistan or Iran. They now face repatriation and – perhaps understandably – seek to avoid that. While they are certainly being displaced, they are not fleeing persecution. However, because of the operations of the Immigration Act, they are able to obtain “protection” here.
Are you really trying to argue that people who are not fleeing persecution should be able to obtain settlement here simply because they have the means to pay for their passage?
There is an alternative, which is to create a legal discretion for the Government to decide when the Convention will apply, and when it will not. So, for example, were there to be strife in PNG, Malaysia, The Solomons, Fiji or Indonesia that led to an exodus, then the principle of “non-return” should apply. But there is no reason this principle should be able to be invoked by persons who are not fleeing persecution.
We should have a policy of welcoming and settling refugees. But this is not the same thing as running a system that encourages human trafficking.
The only people who did not like Rudd in 2010 are those that back stabbed him without reason then had to consistently slag against him to justify Gillard’s ascension.
These memes are all to do with internal party politics and games and relate not one bit to the public’s perception.
Rudd should delay, reduce the gap, even get in front. Now I understand for some in the party the best result is a narrow Rudd loss, and they will pushing for the earliest date.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Galaxy Poll Preferred PM: Rudd 51 (+18 compared to Gillard) Abbott 34 (-3) #auspol
Fran Barlow
Psephos is serial liar on this. I’m surprised anyone would use him, given his intra-factional agenda as an authority on anything. He has form. I gave the true legal position earlier. If you missed it just ask
Hi Thomas Paine re 1151
I certainly believe you’re perfectly entitled – like Boerwar – to your opinion, and to express it.
What I was referring to was – in my opinion – how you and now Boerwar simply repeat the same points over and over, and in effect claim opinion to be proven fact.
I’ve made no secret that I preferred Rudd to Gillard, but I try not to be so blinded by prejudice so that I can’t recognise the respective weaknesses and strengths of either.
My greater anger is reserved for those who destroyed in 2010 what could have been a political partnership of two people who were complementary in their skills.
F
[Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition, Rudd leads 51-34 on PPM
Wow!]
And Rudd’s return to leadership and battles with Abbott would not have sunk in with many out there.
There will be lots of reticence in the public to switch sides given a lack of confidence in the Labor machine. Once Rudd gets his cabinet together and they all out there doing their thing it will make life very difficult for the Libs.
guytaur@885
Other than in 1972 when sections of the media went for Whitlam, I have never known the media to be other than anti-Labor.
That’s the ground rules and we have to get on and play on that unequal playing field.
Player One@887
Caucus made the correct move – Rudd.
He is already putting runs on the board.
[My greater anger is reserved for those who destroyed in 2010 what could have been a political partnership of two people who were complementary in their skills.]
I made a suggestion quite some time ago as to how Gillard could get herself into the positive side of the ledger and recover Labor’s fortunes. Since the public had turned against her and Labor but not Rudd it would have been very clever to hold him close, have him with her often working together….in other words getting the reflection of Rudd’s popularity. This they could have done and would have worked, though many would have hated it as it put Rudd to much in the light. So they went where they did, and instead tried to character assassinate him time after time… a very silly tactic.
[ELECTION 2013
Kevin Rudd risks row with Indonesia]
[Rudd refuses to back down in asylum row]
Anybody see how Rudd has changed the game on this now. They are now fighting on his territory…Foreign Affairs.
Boerwar@926
Yes, I have been observing your behaviour.
Oh dear…
http://twitter.com/alexanderwhite/status/350927051894689792/photo/1
I think theres a couple of pints for Labor in the debate(s)
the spectator@960
Absolutely correct!
I marvel at the concept of a political party that would be content to lose elections badly, have it’s achievements trashed and it’s future plans foiled.
Yet this seems to be what some advocate.
Go join the Greens.
in the Python clip, bemused is the feller traipsing along behind king rudd, aaaaah, clippety clop with the cocoanut halves, clippety cloppety clip…..
…. doing a fab job in his own mind, yet he’s just a bit player in a farce…..
This is not Fair!!!
Some washed up has-been everyone has forgotten about how bad they were taking over from the other has-been Gillard!!
This is Bullsheet@
I don’t get how Abbott is so terrible at debate. Isn’t he well educated, been a minister of govt and now LOTO for some time.
Boerwar@990
Oh yes, it was his insidious mind control.
It was he who caused Gillard to make her many mistakes culminating in that ghastly knitting photo shoot which, according to reports, was the last straw for some in caucus.
Grow a brain Boerwar and put it to use.
#1096 I assume is a Menzies House troll attempting to get invalid Left votes. No real Gillard supporter would be anything like that stupid.
Meanwhile Sarah R # 1092 never mind the italics, great post
the dees almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, wallabies up, rudd up things are turning
see….sacking the leadership works….predicting ashes win
Write-in for Gillard@1096
I hope no-one falls for this bunch of morons and renders their votes informal.
Alias
Who in hell do you think you are giving anyone on this blog a certain time to get over something,I would have thought that would be up to the moderator and while on the subject I didnt hear you calling on TP or bemused to do the same over the past three years of continuous carping.