First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …
Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.
When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.
Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.
The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.
Player One:
Surely he wouldn’t sell off a partway completed NBN?
If the polls over the next few weeks see the Govt take the lead and Abbotts PPM rating collapse they will no doubt look to dump him for a moderate alternative as the coalition will in no circumstances want to lose this unloseable election.
bemused
Why, thank you for your kind thoughts. No-one has ever accused me of having even superficial charm.
1092
Sarah R
Thats a bit heavy for a Mod Lib who had his hardest ten years in Grade 1 to understand
Shit, having looked at Possums graphic it’s no wonder the Libs are freaking. I don’t know if the numbers will hold up but I do know that Abbott won’t be able to hide anymore, I never understood why Julia couldn’t flush Abbott out but I suppose that his minders kept him in a box and the media were happy to simply go after Gillard.
Player One
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:29 pm | Permalink
NBN, Australia Network broadcasting rights.
Rudd had already agreed on gifting the Australia Network to Murdoch prior to his first dismissal, so that’s a given.
The NBN? Think that can’t happen? Well, think again!
———————————————–
looked but can’t find any reference to Rudd and the NBN for Murdoch
[ Surely he wouldn’t sell off a partway completed NBN? ]
Murdoch would want to get his hands on it as soon as the major cities are wired up. So if you see a significant change in the rollout plan, you can expect the next step to be a sell off.
[Player One
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
NBN, Australia Network broadcasting rights.
Rudd had already agreed on gifting the Australia Network to Murdoch prior to his first dismissal, so that’s a given.
The NBN? Think that can’t happen? Well, think again!]
Let’s hope that between Gillard, Roxon and Conroy, they’ve made the legislation appreciatively watertight.
(Check Politifact.com.au for nonsense in this regard, on the ability for parliaments to legislate in perpetuity).
And that the Coalition will not have the balance of power in the Senate any time soon.
@Player One/1106
I think you being a bit delusional.
[ If the polls over the next few weeks see the Govt take the lead and Abbotts PPM rating collapse they will no doubt look to dump him for a moderate alternative as the coalition will in no circumstances want to lose this unloseable election. ]
My best possible outcome: Rudd’s honeymoon bounce is big enough to cause the Libs to dump Abbott, then Rudd loses to Turnbull.
Kills two birds with one stone.
Re sociopathy: I generally admire Dr Bonham, but on this occasion I believe he is being rather precious. I take BW to be referring in shorthand to the concept of a “workplace sociopath”, which is not a clinical diagnosis, but a description of a set of behaviors.
Greg Combet is an enormous loss. Was hoping he’d be a future PM.
Player One:
I will be interested to see who gets Communications. Maybe that will be an indication of intent for the NBN as well?
Goodness – is there really a belief that in three days with hurried polls as a guide, suddenly there will be a Labor landslide?
Let’s get real.
Bob Carr had it about right. If Labor is at margin of error distance to the Coalition, or better, at the point of start of the official election campaign, then Labor might not only ‘save the furniture” but buy some new stuff.
Not much point being carried away after such a short period of time. On the sobering side, lots can go right or wrong for both sides.
What I am most pleased about is that Labor seems to have managed to get on the front foot. Not so much surety from the conservatives and their spear carriers in the media at the moment that is it lay-down misere for Abbott, though Friday’s AFR was still crowing simple victory for him.
Maybe Rudd has the bastardry to get stuck in whereas maybe JG was too accepting that the “good guys” must eventually win.
There is no such kind sentiment on the conservative side of politics.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/06/29/13/45/hockey-says-he-should-have-drowned-rudd-on-kokoda
Hi meher baber Re 1111
Boerwar has also said that Rudd is mentally ill which I & most people I suspect would take as a claim to diagnosis – certzinly not clinical of course as Boerwar apparently has never:
been trained in any mental health profession
met Rudd
F
[ I think you being a bit delusional. ]
About what?
The Australia Network? Rudd had all but sold when he was rolled. From http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-07/australia-network-tender-process-axed/3650798
[ The leaks suggested a panel with Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd’s backing had recommended taking the contract from the ABC and giving it to Rupert Murdoch’s Sky News. ]
The NBN? Rudd will happily sell this as well. History demonstrates that he has no ethical objection to selling public assets to Murdoch.
[ I will be interested to see who gets Communications. Maybe that will be an indication of intent for the NBN as well? ]
Yes, good point. Let’s see on Monday.
The poll bounce is to be expected.
Gillard is the worst Prime Minister Australia has ever had.
Rudd meanwhile is the second worst Prime Minister we have ever had but comes up smelling like roses after 3 years of Gillard.
His numbers will start going down once everyone works out he is a dudd again.
[Goodness – is there really a belief that in three days with hurried polls as a guide, suddenly there will be a Labor landslide?]
Yeah, a few are getting ahead of themselves.
But I remember we were all excited by the Gillard honeymoon polling 3 years ago. I even wondered aloud whether Indi might be in play.
Re#1115, That’s disgusting, what a creep.
Boerwar@752
Me for one.
And much as I liked Greg Combet and held him in high esteem, I still think Rudd is a better politician and is what is needed now to take on the Libs.
Hi Player One re 1117
The Australia Network tender happened after June 2010, under arrangements originally approved under Gillard as PM
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australia-network-tender-beset-by-costly-delays-committee-20120823-24oob.html
The Auditor General criticies the Government’s handling of the matter after Sky (part owned by Murdoch) was reccomended for the tender 3 times by independent panels including when responsibility was shifted to Conroy.
F
[The leadership change was supposed to Save The Furniture. Only what’s happening now is that the furniture is deciding to leave of its own volition!]
The good thing about old political furniture is that when it leaves of its own volition it is usually replaced by new furniture at the next election.
and from deep within the #newscorpse bunker
[Mick Carroll @sundayteleed 4m
New poll suggests @KRuddMP should go to polls ASAP. Lets hope he doesn’t listen to Albo and wait til October. Couldn’t stand it. #auspol]
Let’s see. Let’s do an amateur analysis and see how it all adds up.
(1) Glibness. Anyone who can call for unity, and gentler kinder behaviour who has spent three years fostering disunity, while engaging in routine bad-mouthing of a Labor Prime Minister. Tick.
(2) and Superficial Charm. He certainly has charm, doesn’t he. Is it superficial, though? What might be a reasonable test for superficial? How about street angel, home devil? Where does the charm stop? In private, with his underlings of course. Tick.
(3)Manipulative and Conning
They never recognize the rights of others and see their self-serving behaviors as permissible. Did Rudd recognize the rights of Prime Minister Gillard while he was engaging in treachery and deceit while trying to destroy her? Did Rudd recognize the rights of the Party to try and deliver a massive program of legislation and reform? No. Tick.
(4) They appear to be charming, yet are covertly hostile… Anyone who thinks that Rudd was not covertly hostile over the past three years while trying to appear being charming, put your hands up. I was particularly taken by the way he arrived with a sleeping bag for the charity sleep out. Tick.
(5) and domineering, A prime minister who micromanages the whole of government is domineering, is he not? Tick.
(6) seeing their victim as merely an instrument to be used. Poor old Crean. Tick.
(7) They may dominate victims. Rudd did dominate Gillard did he not? Tick.
(8) ..and humiliate their Could he have actually mentioned her by name in his 60 second valedictory of her? Of course he could. But he was intent on humiliating her, wasn’t he. Tick.
(9) Grandiose Sense of Self. Self-evident, is it not? Tick.
(10) Feels entitled to certain things as “their right.” That would be that he feels entitled to the leadership of the Labor Party and prime ministership as ‘his right’. Tick.
(11) Pathological Lying
Has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis. Tick.
(12) Can create, and get caught up in, a complex belief about their own powers and abilities. Rudd, the micro managing prime minister; Rudd, the saviour of a Labor Government brought low by his own activities. Tick.
(13) Extremely convincing and even able to pass lie detector tests. He has the public more or less completely conned while his ex colleagues would rather chew their right arms off before working with him again. Tick.
(14) Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt. Did you see the chesire cat’s green when he had finally succeeded in his three year quest to destroy a Labor Prime Minister? Tick.
(15) A deep seated rage, which is split off and repressed, is at their core. David Marr in his Quarterly Essay did quite a reasonable job of demonstrating this one, IMHO. Tick.
(16) Does not see others around them as people, but only as targets and opportunities. Instead of friends, they have victims and accomplices who end up as victims. I did appreciate the cartoon the other day in which Rudd says to Albo: ‘Albo, we should sort Caucus into files of those who want me dead now, those who want me dead after the election and those who will remember why they want me dead.’ Of 102 Caucus members I imagine that 101 would not trust Rudd in a pink fit. Tick.
(17) The end always justifies the means and they let nothing stand in their way. Rudd was prepared to destroy a Labor Government to get what he wanted. Tick.
(18) Shallow Emotions
When they show what seems to be warmth, joy, love and compassion it is more feigned than experienced and serves an ulterior motive. A bit hard to say on this one. We’ll give it a reserved for proper clinical investigation category.
(19) Outraged by insignificant matters,… Who would ever forget the plane meal, the video? Tick.
(20).. yet remaining unmoved and cold by what would upset a normal person… Such as the wholesale destruction of decent people that follows him around. Tick.
(21) Since they are not genuine, neither are their promises. Tick.
(22)Incapacity for Love. Reserved.
(23) Need for Stimulation
Living on the edge. Verbal outbursts and physical punishments are normal.’ Well, the verbal outbursts are well-documented. Tick.
Total score: 21 out of 23 with two categories reserved.
[AussieAchmed
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:34 pm | PERMALINK
Player One
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:29 pm | Permalink
NBN, Australia Network broadcasting rights.
Rudd had already agreed on gifting the Australia Network to Murdoch prior to his first dismissal, so that’s a given.
The NBN? Think that can’t happen? Well, think again!
———————————————–
looked but can’t find any reference to Rudd and the NBN for Murdoch]
It’s a bit more tantalising than that, Aussie.
Check out Dennis Richardson, and the Department of Foreign Affairs. And why the determination of who controlled Australia Network was taken out of the hands of this bloke by Gillard and Conroy (and the rest of the Cabinet) while Rudd was Minister for Foreign Affairs.
See: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/australia-network-tv-tender-exposes-cabinet-flaws/story-e6frg996-1226318053730
See why Australia Network had to be saved from the editorial control of Rupert.
Gillard, Conroy and Roxon (and others) had the guts to do this. Rudd wanted to sell Australia down the Murdoch drain to regain PMship.
That’s the real story.
When Gillard said: “Don’t write crap; it can’t be that hard” she meant it.
She meant, she wasn’t going to sell Australia’s heart and soul and independence down the drain.
Unfortunately she didn’t wear a blue tie.
@Player One/1117
Think you need to read up on the current legislation which also allows either party to “sell”.
This was done under the Gillard Goverment.
“The NBN Companies Act” states that it will retain ownership until the completion of the NBN.
http://www.nbnco.com.au/about-us/corporate-nbn-responsibility/regulation-legislation.html
“NBN Co must remain in full Commonwealth ownership until the Communications Minister declares that the National Broadband Network is built and fully operational. A sale of NBN Co can only occur after a Productivity Commission inquiry into the NBN regulatory framework has been considered by a Parliamentary Joint Committee.”
Also, that article was related to the ABC, not the NBN.
Big difference.
Mick Carroll @sundayteleed 7m
New poll suggests @KRuddMP should go to polls ASAP. Lets hope he doesn’t listen to Albo and wait til October. Couldn’t stand it. #auspol
The good thing about old political furniture is that when it leaves of its own volition it is usually replaced by new furniture at the next election.]
Combet is not “old political furniture”. Neither for that matter is Gillard or Emerson.
Hi Boerwar re 1126
What about an analysis about your seeming sociopathic obsessiveness? And do you really think that that such a list couldn’t be done on any major politician – TP for instance couldn’t do the same on Gillard?
Come to think of it you and TP do seem to be mirror images…
Incidentally I understand David Marr also has no qualifications in mental health.
F
[If you vote Abbott, you will get Abbott ]
And the rest of his front bench. Thats scary.
[Gaffhook
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:32 pm | PERMALINK
1092
Sarah R
Thats a bit heavy for a Mod Lib who had his hardest ten years in Grade 1 to understand]
When the narrative’s moved to who is actually playing the “Gender Card”, I expect ModLib to be demoted to Prep.
But, after all, when he can’t get a booking into upmarket nosh joints in the UK, who is he trying to kid?
Did he really think he’d get a bird’s-eye-view of Nigella.
From all reports, she packed up and left before ModLib hit the scene.
😆
BW
[Seeing one eye-to-eye at close range is a once-in-a-lifetime joy.]
The birds are a pleasure. The Estate Office workers put up a lot of chicken-wire mesh to make sure the chicks don’t tangle with the heating air in-takes. (5 years successful breeding not bad).
It cost money but so what.
The foxes in the car parks staining the warm car bonnets are another thing. As are the squirrels on the low-rise blocks (show us your pot-plants!).
Wild-life is adapting – badgers I’m not so sure about.
FilR
[The Australia Network tender happened after June 2010, under arrangements originally approved under Gillard as PM]
I think you’ll find the Australia Network tender began in 2009, long before Gillard had anything to do with it.
[1063
shellbell
1048
briefly
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 6:44 pm | PERMALINK
I must take a walk around the lake…fresh air in my lungs, blue sky and fresh thoughts!!!
I can take a walk around a lake by just going out my front door. 24 hours non stop rain]
I’ve heard about the flooding – the biblical proportions. Very out of season, I believe.
Boerwar – Politics has always attracted more than its fair share of sociopaths, including a fair share of PMs and presidents, as has the world of finance and Hollywood, because they are attracted to anything where there is money and power. But sociopaths also have high-energy drives and tend to be quite tough, qualities needed to succeed in those environments
[Erasmus
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:40 pm | PERMALINK
Greg Combet is an enormous loss. Was hoping he’d be a future PM.]
Did Combet find negotiating through the thicket of parliament a bit more headkickery than in unionism?
More kudos to Gillard for leading a hung parliament through the finer aspects of agreement between seemingly irreconcilable attitudes.
Don’t you think.
[Peter Murphy
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:40 pm | PERMALINK
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/2013/06/29/13/45/hockey-says-he-should-have-drowned-rudd-on-kokoda%5D
The Coalition doesn’t seem to be able to relinquish “death” imagery, do they.
@SH/1135
And continued under Rudd as Foreign Minister:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-11-23/australia-network-put-up-for-tender/2347902
David Penberthy tweets Galaxy poll has “Rudd caning abbott as preferred pm and labor close to victory”.
Brilliant minister and the country is much poorer for his loss, but Combet is a little too dour to be an effective leader.
David Penberthy @penbo 4m
all our sunday papers have got an amazing galaxy poll tomorrow – rudd caning abbott as preferred pm and labor close to victory
Hi Sara Roberts re 1135
“I think you’ll find the Australia Network tender began in 2009, long before Gillard had anything to do with it.”
That’s true as set out in the Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/media/australia-network-tv-tender-exposes-cabinet-flaws/story-e6frg996-1226318053730
But it doesn’t really change the point of the summary set out in the SMH article – that Sky was awarded the tender three times by an independent panel, including the last time while Conroy had ministerial responsibility.
On that basis it really can’t be said that Rudd had fixed the process to hand control over to Murdoch (even if that might have been a result he wouldn’t oppose…)
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australia-network-tender-beset-by-costly-delays-committee-20120823-24oob.html
F
Can’t believe what the rumour for conroy’s replacement is?
William
[David Penberthy tweets Galaxy poll has “Rudd caning abbott as preferred pm and labor close to victory”.]
That’s why Labor should be a little patient on an election date. Allow some time for potential leadership tensions on the other side to fester.
@Centaur009/1144
Who’s the rumored for Conroy replacement?
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:19 pm | PERMALINK
@SH/1135
And continued under Rudd as Foreign Minister:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-11-23/australia-network-put-up-for-tender/2347902%5D
Thx for providing the link.
Sick of doing the research for the lazy arses who continue to believe Rupert Murdoch’s ‘reach like a sick horse’ doesn’t involve patronage of our country’s political sphere in return for lining his pocket.
Most people would be content with their first billion.
I reckon he’s pretty pissed off a fellow inheritee, that Gina Rinehart, a woman, is wealthier than he is ever going to be.
And so was Janet Holmes’aCourt.
There’s your Gender Card.
briefly@838
You are not under any obligation to please me. Follow your conscience by all means.
But I am now clear about where that leads you.
[My best possible outcome: Rudd’s honeymoon bounce is big enough to cause the Libs to dump Abbott, then Rudd loses to Turnbull.
Kills two birds with one stone.]
I’d put the libs first if they dumped Abbott for Turnbull.
Hopefully they will do a hawkie/hayden, a quick change and a romping victory.
Turnbull does not carry the psychotic baggage and history with women that Abbott and Rudd do.
First attempt at this post got eaten, so apologies if two replies show up:
meher baba@1111
I think it is quite clear from BW’s more recent post that what he is doing is taking the shortlist for the actual psychiatric diagnosis and applying an amateur version of it, which it is actually not designed for (especially not when the person applying it is biased). So I don’t believe the above is correct.
Even assuming it is, it’s a subject I don’t think I could be precious enough about if I tried. I frequently see people in online flamewars and the like trying to “diagnose” others with all manner of things that are in the DSM and any number of others beside. I find it to be an odious and unacceptable style of online debate, not only because it is invariably rubbish but because it obscures public understanding of specific mental health issues. Of course, a PM hardly needs defending from it but I am concerned that the use of such terms in political discourse sets a bad example for their use more generally.
I don’t doubt that there is a milder meaning of “sociopath” out there, mainly as a result of filtered down understanding of pop-psych books and the like. But if someone is using a mental-illness related term in a sense that does not actually imply mental illness, I think they have a responsibility to explicitly disclaim about their usage. And furthermore, I question whether this sort of thing is really acceptable. A wide range of terms referring to physical, psychiatric or intellectual disabilities are no longer considered OK as insults.