Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)

Brisbane’s inner south again finds itself represented by a Prime Minister after another absorbing week in federal politics.

First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …

Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.

When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.

Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.

The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,189 comments on “Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)”

Comments Page 22 of 24
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  2. [The casualties keep accumulating, sad but true.]

    The leadership change was supposed to Save The Furniture. Only what’s happening now is that the furniture is deciding to leave of its own volition!

    I’m sure all of those who were railing against Gillard back in March because of the departure of a few has-beens from Cabinet will be simply outraged at the new leader for causing this massive walk out of senior ministers.

  3. [AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 6:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah Roberts

    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 6:24 pm
    Less than 15% if the Australian workforce is now represented by a union. The sooner the ALP rid themselves of the stench of unions and union factionalism the better.
    —————————————————–

    The Labor Party is the political arm of the Union movement. It was formed by the Union movement.]

    I don’t know the emoticon for irony.

    I’m a staunch unionist. I was merely pointing out the hypocrisy of some members/supporters of the ALP who continually denigrate Unions, unionism and union influence in the ALP, and then cry tears of blood when over the resignation of a unionist.

    Hope that’s clear.

  4. Most of those who are quitting their cabinet posts have done it hard for some time.

    Who can blame many of them?

    Not so long ago, Labor supporters were extolling the “depth of talent” on this side of politics so out of 70 persons, the loss of some old hands gives chances and challenges for others.

    Oh, how Abbott, god forbid if he is elected, will manage the enormous pile of dead wood he has available will be hilarious.

  6. sprocket:

    If the Liberals had any sense they’d accept that the leadership change will deliver a honeymoon poll bounce for the govt, just as it did last time.

    Having watched ABbott earlier (and Howard before him), I didn’t detect any signs of panic or fear. Just more of the same stuff they’ve been saying about the govt for years, only now it has more salience.

  8. Combet was a fantastic union leader, and a great minister for Climate Change. Somehow, the stars did not align for him for his crack at the top job – which shows just how hard it is to get to be PM.

    But a great contribution, with the Patricks dispute and pushing through the Clean Energy Future highlights.

    I hope he and Juanita get to enjoy the next stage of their lives.

  10. The one thing I did notice about Howard is how noticeably he has aged. Not necessarily his physical appearance, but his mannerisms and his speech.

    I wonder what sort of contribution he can realistically make to the coalition campaign, other than the odd cameo appearance here and there.

  13. [1048
    briefly
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 6:44 pm | PERMALINK
    I must take a walk around the lake…fresh air in my lungs, blue sky and fresh thoughts!!!]

    I can take a walk around a lake by just going out my front door. 24 hours non stop rain

  14. [Having watched ABbott earlier (and Howard before him), I didn’t detect any signs of panic or fear. Just more of the same stuff they’ve been saying about the govt for years, only now it has more salience.]

    you would be worried if he was not confident playing a home game infront of his teams fans only. if he can’t win over that audience preaching to the converted he may aswell pull up stumps. make no mistake he is panicking. comments along the like its not all about you kevin demonstrate his obvious nervousness over the star pulling quality of one KRudd vs his complete lack of this quality.

  15. Tricot:

    I would happily take the retirement of KCarr, Crean, Mar’n and Fitzgibbon over Combet, Conroy, Emerson and Gillard.

    The aforementioned are well past their time, with Fitzgibbon simply not being dead wood IMO. Whereas the latter group still have a lot to offer our parliament.

    Agree on the Abbott front bench. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does a complete reshuffle in govt.

  16. Rudd’s return claims another Labor talent.

    I suspect secretly that Rudd loves this. No other talents to outshine him. All the remaining are his bootlickers.

  17. sprocket_@1050

    Galaxy tomorrow confirming Morgan and Reachtel. Our Libearl friends must be packing the proverbial.

    Expand
    Mick Carroll ‏@sundayteleed 2m
    First national poll since leadership coup has @KRuddMP well ahead of Abbott for preferred PM #auspol

    To be expected if 2PP is close. The normal result for a 50-50 2PP is a c. 15 point lead to the incumbent PM. (That’s Newspoll, but others have a similar dynamic, with the probable exception of ReachTEL.) Plus there may be enough of a honeymoon effect to cancel out the problem of the new leader attracting lots of “don’t knows”.

  20. BW

    In sort off acceptable Scullin at the moment and enjoying.

    I’ll be off again soon.

    The Falcons on the top of the Cromwell Tower are something – a couple of months ago I watched one swirl its way up from 32 floors below.

    Without perceptible movement of its wings it was with-in 3 feet of me facing directly at me as it went up on the up=draft – checking me out!

    It did the last 8 floors and headed off in the direction of Smithfield.

    Awesome.

  21. [Labor will not be free of corruption until they get rid of all unionists and former unionists]

    We have a lot less corruption that you libs.

  23. Tricot@1010: on the whole I agree with this. Many much-vaunted future political leaders often end up not amounting to very much. The egregious case was that of Michael Lee (remember him?): who was more or less annointed by Keating as his successor and described by Richo as a “once in a generation talent”. (It was all about his looks: I wonder will Jason Clare end up in the same place?)

    There have been many others: John Dawkins, Gareth Evans, Stephen Smith, even Mar’n, have all been mentioned in despatches, but never got there. Then of course there was some bloke on the Liberal side called Costello. Not to mention Ian McLachlan (who allegedly had the right sort of eyebrows).

    I kind of suspect that Shorten is heading that way. Combet was a man of more substance, but he hasn’t seemed well for a while.

    The funny thing is that, if you look at Federal politics over a long period, you will note that some seemingly unlikely people have become leaders on both sides and done quite well for a time: Hewson, Downer, Beazley and now Rudd. And at the state level, we had the highly successful Bob Carr (who always looked predestined for the sort of role he has now, but State Premier looked most unlikely) and astonishingly successful (as in “astonishing that he was successful” not that he achieved an astonishing level of success) Jeff Kennett. And Colin Barnett right now.

    In terms of less likely aspirants, one I’d watch on the Labor side is Chris Bowen, who has proved himself to be tough and relentless. On the Lib side, Mortison is the standout (although I reckon many observers already see him as a coming man). It’s funny that both these guys cut their teeth in the Immigration portfolio: but I guess it is the issue du jour.

  26. [The numbers of departing minister during the Howard years are nothing compared to what we have seen this year alone.]

    NOT TRUE, blackburnpseph!

    In addition to those already mentioned:

    In Howard’s first two years as prime minister there were seven resignations in response to scandals (inc Helen Coonan’s husband’s property investments etc; Tuckey’s threats etc during his attempts to “gain improper benefit” for his son. Howard had to SACK several of his ministers & some MPs for corruption – and that’s not counting those enmeshed in the frequent scandals – and scandals were mire than usually frequent in Howard’s government; eg Jull & Sharpe’s ‘travel rorts”, Wooldridge’s MRI; Reith’s $50.000 telephone card bill after he gave it to his son to use for 4 years & “children overboard” deliberate lies for political gain, AWB, Santo Santoro … and on and on.

    There are plenty of sites citing and describing/ discussing the almost constant stream of Howard Government corruption, scandals, lies, outrages, victimisation etc.

    Google the info & do the maths.

  27. Sarah Roberts

    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

    AussieAchmed
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 6:37 pm | PERMALINK
    Sarah Roberts

    I don’t know the emoticon for irony.

    I’m a staunch unionist. I was merely pointing out the hypocrisy of some members/supporters of the ALP who continually denigrate Unions, unionism and union influence in the ALP, and then cry tears of blood when over the resignation of a unionist.

    Hope that’s clear.
    —————————————————–

    Clear. I agree. I am also a staunch unionist. been active in a union for over 30 years. still shake my head when members tell me they are voting Liberal…then complain to the union when the Liberals attack working conditions…

  29. meher baba

    As they say, the fickle hand of fate.

    I was a Big Kimbo man and thought he was the best PM we never had – windbag or not.

  33. Sean Tisme

    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

    Labor will not be free of corruption until they get rid of all unionists and former unionists
    ——————————————————-

    at least we are not in the same room as Pell and his pedaphile priests and Murdoch and his hacking journalists, Gina and her Northern dream at taxpayer expense, the IPA and their 100 radical policies.

    IPA have stated they want Abbott to emulate the most left wing PM in history – Gough Whitlam. They couldn’t find a Liberal PM worth emulating

  36. fess@1081: ah Dutton! I was searching in my mind for him, thought momentarily of Greg Hunt and then realized it wasn’t him. Dutton: of course! Talk about “risen without trace”! If he came on TV right now, I wouldn’t recognize him.

    It pains me to mention it, but back in the 1980s Bronwyn B was sometimes discussed in the media as a potential Aussie-style Margaret Thatcher.

  38. just watched the coalition convention. plastic, embarassing and direct copy of a us style approach. comedy thrown in by a double act from mirabella and bilson i think.
    noted the token non anglo saxons strategically placed for camera coverage. it was contrived and cliched.not sure who it is meant to impress but he needs better advice.

  40. back in the 1980s Bronwyn B was sometimes discussed in the media as a potential Aussie-style Margaret Thatcher.

    I thought it was more recent than the 80s that Bronwyn Bishop was in contention for the LNP leadership. As I recall BB was quite active in pursuing this for a while, including some very dodgy glamour shots (was it for WW I wonder?)

    Ok, just checked wikipedia and it’s definitely worth a laugh for those of us old enough to remember:

    After the Liberals’ defeat at the 1993 election, Bishop began to be seen as a possible leadership candidate, a view she shared. Shortly after the 1993 election, Jim Carlton, the member for Mackellar, resigned. In a move widely seen as furthering her leadership ambitions, Bishop resigned from the Senate on 24 February 1994 to contest the ensuing by-election for the safe Liberal seat. Although she was comfortably elected, her campaign against John Hewson for the Liberal Party leadership faced a setback when she did not poll as well as expected against author and filmmaker Bob Ellis, who ran as an independent in the by-election. When Hewson called a spill for the Liberal leadership in 1994, Bishop opted not to get in the race, and Alexander Downer successfully challenged for the party leadership.

    Heh. Losing out to Alexander Downer for the leadership is bad enough, but underperforming against Bob Ellis !?!

    Chortle.

  41. briefly:

    I think nearly everyone in the country would be relieved if this running sore could be soothed and allowed to heal.]

    Because this is basically about our distress at being called upon to relieve the far greater and longer standing distress of others. Persuasive, really.

    [We are all disfigured by the divisions and the loss of life that the law now induces.]

    Doubtful. I frequently see comments in the Daily Terror that show utterly depraved indifference. Some of us are bothered, but even of these, it seems few are bothered enough to look for a non-punitive option, especially when tribalist loyalty is in question.

  42. ModLib

    Did I detect your return?

    Being a harpie, I wish to harp on about your posts this morning re:

    Sexism and Gillard vs Thatcher.

    I’ll grant you the “witch” analogy, although I think Fran Barlow’s superb dissection of the motif sublime, and understand why you didn’t ‘get it’ especially in the face of much jubilance in the streets at her actual death.

    There was only one thing that stood in the way that Thatcher was treated and how Gillard was treated.

    That thing was Rupert Murdoch.

    In 1979, Thatcher won the prime ministership of Britain off the back of Rupert’s recently-acquired Sun>/i>.

    [Mid-way through her first term, Thatcher was polling as the most unpopular prime minister in recent history, but the real threat did not come from a divided opposition or disaffected country but from members of her own party.]

    Sound familiar?

    Who stepped in to help her?

    Rupert Murdoch. But he had a business plan. Not for the country, but for himself. He needed her support.

    What happened?

    [. . . Murdoch launched a bid for the Times Group Newspapers. The deal should have been referred to the competition authorities as Murdoch already owned a substantial chunk of Fleet Street.

    But as revealed by the Thatcher archives during the Leveson Inquiry into press ethics last year, Murdoch secretly met with the prime minister at her country residence in Chequers in early 1981 to discuss the takeover.

    The deal was waived through, and The Times, often considered the in-house journal of the British ruling classes, joined the tabloids in supporting Thatcher’s radical right-wing reforms.]

    But what happened to Julia Gillard in Australia?

    Rupert was okay, if “okay” means to stand fairly idly by while Gillard was unfairly attacked. Even during the deadly Oakes’ leaks of the 2010 campaign, after all Oakes was out of the Packer stable.

    Why? Because he thought he had the Australia Network in the bag, but it would be more secure if Abbott was elected.

    But Rupert didn’t have it in the bag. Long story short, Gillard and Conroy overturned the tender contract.

    Sky (almost 50% owned by Murdoch) was compensated a paltry $2 million for the dead deal.

    To ordinary folk that’s a lot of moolah. To Rupert Murdoch that’s spare change, doesn’t matter if it accidentally meets the washing machine.

    When PMs of Australia routinely repeat Keating’s infamous “don’t get between Premiers and a bucket money”, the motto should read “Don’t get between Rupert Murdoch and a bucket of money.”

    If you think there is any other reason for the Murdoch press in Australia to viciously vilify Gillard, to campaign against her for any other reason, then you’re sadly mistaken.

    Rupert loves taking women for a ride. He did so to Thatcher, who on her political deathbed

    [waived through a merger of his off-shore company Sky with the licensed British satellite company, BSB.

    Thus Britain’s satellite monopoly, BSkyB, which now as 50% higher revenues than the BBC, was born.]

    So, you’re absolutely right, it was nothing to do with sexism regarding Thatcher.

    But Rupert Murdoch had no hesitation in playing the Gender Card against Gillard. Total sexism on display.

    And all because of his bank balance.

    If you don’t believe Rupert thinks he can still get control of Australia Network, then look at the break-up of the company.

    There’s much trumpeting going on about how the “News Corp Empire” has been broken into Print and Entertainment divisions.

    Except, when it comes to Australia, the new News Corps contains the PayTV component.

    What does that tell you?

    NBN, Australia Network broadcasting rights. Rupert telling the country what to think?

    Gillard stood up to Rupert Murdoch. And she’s paid the price.

    But at least she has her integrity intact.

  45. Hi

    Re 1049

    “So, until we have a proper diagnosis from a qualified person, we just have to do the best we can.”

    You’re avoiding KB’s validpoint – you have no expertise to use the term.

    You of course have the right to your opinion based finding what you like on trawling the web – just like Andrew Bolt does on AGW.

    F

  46. Distressed by the corruption of the modern Labor Party?

    Disgusted by the treatment of Julia?

    Determined not to let white-anting and treachery be rewarded?

    DON’T GET ANGRY, GET EVEN!

    YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

    Get rid of this prostitution of the Labor movement without soiling your hands by voting Liberal

    Write 1 Gillard, J. on your House of Representatives ballot and

    1. The Gillard Team on the Senate paper

    TOGETHER WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

    A grass roots social media campaign is about to start!

  47. [ NBN, Australia Network broadcasting rights. ]

    Rudd had already agreed on gifting the Australia Network to Murdoch prior to his first dismissal, so that’s a given.

    The NBN? Think that can’t happen? Well, think again!

  48. Boerwar@725

    ML

    Here are some criteria for sociopathy. If you can spot the difference between Abbott and Rudd on these, you are a sharper observer than I am:

    ‘Glibness and Superficial Charm

    Manipulative and Conning
    They never recognize the rights of others and see their self-serving behaviors as permissible. They appear to be charming, yet are covertly hostile and domineering, seeing their victim as merely an instrument to be used. They may dominate and humiliate their victims.

    Grandiose Sense of Self
    Feels entitled to certain things as “their right.”

    Pathological Lying
    Has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis. Can create, and get caught up in, a complex belief about their own powers and abilities. Extremely convincing and even able to pass lie detector tests.

    Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt
    A deep seated rage, which is split off and repressed, is at their core. Does not see others around them as people, but only as targets and opportunities. Instead of friends, they have victims and accomplices who end up as victims. The end always justifies the means and they let nothing stand in their way.

    Shallow Emotions
    When they show what seems to be warmth, joy, love and compassion it is more feigned than experienced and serves an ulterior motive. Outraged by insignificant matters, yet remaining unmoved and cold by what would upset a normal person. Since they are not genuine, neither are their promises.

    Incapacity for Love

    Need for Stimulation
    Living on the edge. Verbal outbursts and physical punishments are normal.’

    I see more of those characteristics in you than I see in Rudd.

    I suspect I am not alone.

  49. CTaR1
    There was a docco on wildlife in London a couple of weeks ago: badgers, woxies, all sorts of ferals, including feral crayfish; lots of returning birds. The highlight was probably the return en masse of Peregrines. Seeing one eye-to-eye at close range is a once-in-a-lifetime joy. Lucky you.

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