First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …
Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.
When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.
Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.
The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.
BBP
Wrong. Believe what the man says. Even Mr Turnbull says he is a straight shooter.
[half term Ted]
Ted who? That was handled very deftly and with a minimum of bloodshed and rancour. Perhaps the ALP could learn a thing or two..
Shellbell
[He could have resolved the NSW ALP if asked.]
Combet a practical person.
A loss.
BK
Puuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuhleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze!
AA ‘If you vote Tony Abbott you will get Tony Abbott’ Yep. Anbd if you vote Rudd, you will get Rudd.’
This is now an election that voters can decide purely on whose policies they think are best because they will be desperately trying to forget who the leader of the Party they favour is…
You forgot Peter Dutton!
Can’t imagine why you would.
DTT
[Combet . . He is actually not a very young man is he?]
Well, only if you count 55 as not being very young.
He is in fact, 55 years of age.
A whole 9 years YOUNGER than that prodigious talent Simon Crean.
You know Simon Crean, the guy who bad-mouthed Kevin Rudd on national radio back in February 2012? Simon Crean, a dirty stinking rotten Trade Unionist who has fouled the party (according to you). A bloke who forced Rudd’s hand early (twice).
The bloke who had just been lauded as having been a frontbencher for his entire 23-year career in parliament.
A bloke who jettisoned that profound statistic by turning back to Rudd, and not just undermining his leader (again) but who bears responsibility to for continuing suffering of all the women who endured the heartache of forced adoptions with his total contempt for their 50+ year wait for an apology.
What a great bloke.
[944
slackboy72
Briefly @ 936
It’s like asking if I would prefer a dull peanut butter sandwich or a dose of anthrax.
945
Boerwar
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 5:36 pm | Permalink
briefly
‘Whereas if you vote Abbott, you will not only get Abbott, you will get Pyne, Robb, Bishop, Mirabella, Johnstone, Bernardi, Cormann, Joyce and, best of all, Brough.’
Ain’t life wonderful.]
LOL…would you like tomato sauce with your anthrax?
I wonder if the blood pledges made against Gillard , are still against rudd
boerwar = one great big bore. mate get over it Gillard is gone why she was politically inept. in this game you do actually need to win votes.
DTT
[Gillard lost Roxon for no apparent reason and Faulkner and Tanner early on,
She drove out Evans, Mclelland, Ferguson, Crean and Carr of whom the last three all had some if not overwhelming talent.]
Not nearly as bad as Howard’s government, with its much puffed-up “standards”; which meant Howard sacked 4 in his 1st term.
Then, in Howard’s 2nd term, as problems continued <b?Michael Wooldridge, in Sept 2001, became the FIFTH MINISTER sacked "In the past year"!
Yet, as bad behaviour, deception & corruption continued (inc by Brough & Slipper) and public scandals multiplied (inc AWB’s bribes to Saddam Hussein) Howard simply ditched his standards and kept the crooks, corrupt, inept, undesirables on, until revelations (Fairfax & others) of massive “official corruption” by Santo Santoro: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santo_Santoro
IOW, Howard presided over levels of political scandals, inc misbehaviour, failure to disclose, misuse of Government phone cards etc, blatant lying and outright political corruption not before seen in Australia’s postDepression Governments
Like Peter Reith, of the Children Overboard, Phone Card etc scandals, Santo is back in the senior ranks of the Liberal Party:
Santo Santoro is now federal Liberal Party vice-president and a lobbyist.
In comparison, Rudd and Gillard’s government were, with very few exceptions, shining examples of Good Honest Government by Good Honest Senators & MPs.
Boerwar
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
AA
‘which was the point of the paragraph that you seem to have missed/avoided regarding the cost of living and inflation and that the cost will be paid by consumers’
My bad.
———————————————————-
No problem
A piece on Greg Combet 2008
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2008/10/11/a-birder-in-the-gilded-cage-of-politics/
[956
mimhoff
You forgot Peter Dutton!
Can’t imagine why you would.]
😆
meher baba
[If Abbott ever experiences what Rudd did in 2010, he certainly wouldn’t hang about gnawing on the cold bones of revenge. With the urge towards noblesse oblige kicking back in, he would head off to Africa to be a missionary or some such.]
Yep. Abbott would have, to coin a phrase, worn a “shit-eating grin” as he shoved Time Costello aside to become the well-remunerated charity working CEO of World Vision.
Guytaur @ 951
Greg Combet is also incredibly loyal to the ALP – his citing the leadership changeover would have been like letting off a huge bomb under Kevin Rudd.
Most of the other ministers who have gone are not much loss (Smith excepted – and maybe Emerson – hard to know as he played attack dog so much it was hard to tell how good he was) – but Combet is a serious loss to the parliamentary Labor party.
948
You will not be voting for Pell if you vote Green.
[957….Sarah Roberts]
very well-observed, SR
blackburnpseph
“Ted who? That was handled very deftly and with a minimum of bloodshed and rancour. Perhaps the ALP could learn a thing or two..”
Apparently the following is frowned upon here but:
+1.
That’s a man who puts his party’s interests before his own. Still a useless premier but still.
952
He gave up and put his friend in before Guy could get the numbers.
One thing is clear with these resignations. The talent pool remaing to Labor is still far superior to that of the LNP.
Abbott boasts about having the same team as Howard era. That is because if they retire he cannot even fake talent to run a government
CTar1. First and foremost, I am a believer in free market economics. So I support whichever side of politics is most committed to that goal.
Since 1972 that has been (in terms of party leaders, although its really more comolex than that) Whitlam (you will be surprised to hear), Fraser and Hayden were a tie, Hawke, Keating (but he deserved to lose in 1996 because of policy paralysis), Howard, Latham, Howard (but he deserved to lose in 2004 and 2007 because he had run out of steam, Turnbull, Gillard and now I really don’t know (but I feel compelled to vote against Abbott, who is almost a socialist).
For reasons I have explained on here before, in recent decades, it is generally Labor (especially Hawke, Keating and Latham) rather than the Libs who have been the champions of free market economics. Howard was a shining exception. Turnbull is another but I feel he is finished. The rest of the Libs and all of the Nats are simply the mates of rent-seekers.
So I am a sort of policy boat person seeking refuge on the Labor side of politics (but, tell me, UNHCR: what did I do to deserve to be sent to Ruddland?)
[lizzie
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 5:28 pm | PERMALINK
A lighter touch = we need it today!
MargoK @pepiermargot 2m
Breaking: 457 fan club ready to meet Stunt Boy at mine site visit pic.twitter.com/FOINNOtSFI]
Hilarious 😆
ts
‘boerwar = one great big bore. mate get over it Gillard is gone why she was politically inept. in this game you do actually need to win votes.’
(1) I don’t care whether I bore you.
(2) I am not your mate.
(3) I have made an assessment of ex-prime minister Gillard, so I will not go there again.
(4) The mental health of the prime minister and the LOTO is not a game.
(5) Stating that you need to win votes is like stating that you need oxygen for life: true, but hardly useful.
but Combet is a serious loss to the parliamentary Labor party
To my mind he was the most likely of the Labor team (though I find it extremely hard to put ‘Labor’ and ‘team’ in the same sentence) to become a future PM.
Abbott is sitting this weekend like a frightened child trying to figure out what to do on above four different fronts. Rudd has him bamboozled completely without even trying and in the space of less than 72 hours as leader.
1. Negativity: By highlighting Abbott’s relentless negativity and speaking calmly and quietly, Rudd has completely neutralised Abbott’s harsh, abrasive and divisive style of Opposition leadership that stood him in pretty good stead against Julia Gillard. This factor
has also largely neutralised the attack ads against Rudd. Poor Tony is left wondering how to reinvent himself – and realising there ain’t nothing there inside his hollow self with which to form a new persona.
2. Indonesia. Rudd clearly has another trick up his sleeve on Indonesia, involving the visit and Carr’s flagged intention to get tough on the definition refugees. They’re going to get outflanked on the right, with nowhere to go except the endless bleating about turning back the boats, which is now too dangerous an area for Field Marshall Tony to venture into. Expect Labor to boobytrap Morrison’s visit to Indonesia as well, if he dares go ahead with it.
3. SS Marriage. Rudd is happy to keep this is a second tier issue – but it is huge among young voters and progressive voters. Rudd will happily repeat his challenge to Abbott at any opportunity it suits (ie not, for example, among the Muslims of western Sydney) to hold a free conscience vote among LNP MPs.
Abbott is terrified of this issue because it leads directly to the Catholic church, George Pell and everything else Australia really fears about Abbott.
4. Debt and deficit. Abbott is also terrified of debating Rudd on this issue and will duck and weave to a deeply embarrassing extent before yielding as an Opposition leader surely must. He simply has no explanation on how to pay for his absurd maternity leave scheme, and he has no answers for talking about a Budget emergency when any reasonable global comparison shows Australia to be in fantastic shape fiscally.
Newsflash: Asylum seekers hear that Rudd is now Prime Minister and are turning back their boats.
So we’ve got Pyne – Shadow Minister for Education who took such an active interest in his port folio he asked 3 questions about education in 3 years.
Then we have Dutton – Shadow Minister for Health who took such an active role in his port folio he didn’t ask a question about health in over 1000 days.
OzPol
The numbers of departing minister during the Howard years are nothing compared to what we have seen this year alone. This is close to unprecedented – should Labor win – the number of cabinet ministers continuously in the post since January 1 2013 will be very low indeed – and that does not even include any that Rudd may jettison should he win. Also remember that Burke and Gray have had their offers to resign – refused.
guytaur
[The talent pool remaing to Labor is still far superior to that of the LNP.]
Yep.
The Coalition has crap juniors and the rest are watching their super.
They failed after the 2007 election to recruit in a smart way.
Back to the future!
bbs
There is no comparison between departing ministers under Howard and departing ministers under Rudd/Gillard/Rudd.
Howard lost ministers hand over fist because of malfeasance. R/G/R have lost only one on this basis: Fitzgibbon.
OTOH, Howard did not destroy large numbers of ministerial careers in pursuit of a crazed ambition: that is what Rudd has done.
So, no comparison.
“@Kath_Robinson10: COMBET TO LEAVE FED POLITICS The former front bencher Greg Combet joins us to discuss his decision tomorrow on @MeetThePress10 #mtp10.”
Guytaur
You are absolutely right about the talent pool. In moments of gloom I have tried to convince myself that the likes of Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop and Scott Morrison are up to the job of running Australia.
They simply are not. Thank God for public servants I suppose but it is depressing beyond words to think these clowns might be running the place.
Both talent pools should have signs next to them banning diving.
[ You will not be voting for Pell if you vote Green. ]
No, but instead of voting for “invisible friends”, you are voting for “fairies at the bottom of the garden”.
Liberal talent pool come from the shallow end of the gene pool, and they banged their heads diving in
meher
You don’t have to explain yourself to me.
As I said I believe you’ve been a honest dealer on here and you might have noticed I don’t always agree with you.
Feeling a bit disenfranchised seems to be part of anyone who’d like some fair and reasonable middle of the road politics at the moment.
I’m sick of zealots.
Having said all of that, in strategic terms, it is vital that Rudd remains the underdog – the presumed loser – for as long as humanly possible. That needs to the media narrative right up until fairly close to the election, whenever that is. That way, once the tide turns to an even greater extent, and Rudd looks poised for the most unlikely victory since Steve Bracks stunned Jeff Kennett in Victoria, then there is no time for the media narrative to switch back against the Rudd momentum.
I’m sure after all his months musing on the backbench, Rudd has this in hand.
If Bowen does to inflation and interest rates what Bowen did to asylum seeker numbers…
alias
‘I’m sure after all his months musing on the backbench, Rudd has this in hand’
Rudd did not muse on the backbench. He worked long and hard to destroy a Labor Prime Minister and undermine a Labor Government.
Well Boerwar, I’ve given you till Monday to get your thoughts in ship shape, and onwards and upwards. Enjoy this final 24 hours or so of carping.
alias
Look on the bright side. It appears likely that Rudd has guaranteed Abbott won’t get control of the Senate (at least), so we will get to see his famed negotiation and diplomacy skills in practice if he gets a lower house majority.
Frankly I think the funniest result would be another hung parliament with the Greens holding the BoP. The media would shit itself and die.
alias
‘Well Boerwar, I’ve given you till Monday to get your thoughts in ship shape, and onwards and upwards. Enjoy this final 24 hours or so of carping.’
Carping? We have a sociopath on the loose and I am carping?
Bilbo
can’t call people corrupt here….except..liberal corruption
961 frinstance
Someone has taped calls and taken photos of the Night Parrot!
William Bowe@661
Now that is a serious loss to Labor.
Still life goes on and Labor has loads of talented members who can be promoted.
briefly:
[Labor can very easily solve this. They should do so straight away.]
They can outflank the LNP on this with a plan that puts at risk no naval personnel. Sink the boats. Put it on youtube.
Sure people will say that’s harsh, but the government could call that a “severe disadvantage” policy.
If it’s true that passage is ‘illegal’ and the IMAs are merely parties to, as Psephos puts it “a trade in Australian visas” that would make these ‘boaties’ criminals. If it succeeds in “stopping the boats” then surely the lives of a few criminal queue jumpers is a price well worth paying.
Best of all, people on the margins of the big cities would see the ALP as much harsher than the LNP on the issue and turn on the LNP as softies. Bolt would be silenced. The ALP would finally occupy what for them, would be the logical and high moral ground.
Sometimes, you have to be cruel to be kind. You know it makes sense.
Yes AbsoluteTwaddle. Agreed. That would be very amusing indeed.
However, if Rudd merely saves the Senate, he’ll get no credit and no thanks. He’d be booted out unceremoniously and I suspect he might actually leave politics.
The real game, I am certain, is that Rudd is convinced he can cause Abbott to implode. I mean really simply destroy himself.
And lets face it, with a guy like Abbott it wouldn’t be that hard. We have to remember that Labor has never in recent times (apart from Downer and Nelson perhaps) had such an easy target to mess with.
Rudd intends to take Abbott apart limb by limb, slowly and deliberately. Of that I have no doubt whatsoever.
And if it happens, it will be a magnificent spectacle.
Truly magnificent.
Human wave tactics anyone?
[976….alias]
Like Bill Clinton, I will keep repeating, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Whatever story people might like to tell about the economy, the stats are:
Real GDP per capita has grown a scant 0.5% pa since 2006/7. In the last 18 months, real per capita disposable incomes have been falling. Since September 2011, the growth rate in demand for labour has been falling and is now negative. As things stand, it is only possible to run the economy at around full employment as long as the Commonwealth runs a fiscal deficit. Were it not for export growth, the economy would already be contracting. The signs are that export growth is rapidly receding and may soon become negative, in which case there will almost certainly be a recession.
ALL of this is discernible in household finances and the patterns of consumption/saving, household bank deposits, credit growth and wages growth.
Unless the Provisional Government acknowledges these things, shows they understand them and has some relevant, credible policy responses, they will very soon be the Ex-Government.