Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)

Brisbane’s inner south again finds itself represented by a Prime Minister after another absorbing week in federal politics.

First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …

Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.

When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.

Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.

The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,189 comments on “Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)”

Comments Page 2 of 24
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  1. It would be interesting to see an analysis of references to Gillard in the media compared with other Prime Ministers. You might be right, Gillard may have been less likely to be referred to as Prime Minister, I don’t know….but if that was the case it doesn’t necessarily mean the media is sexist. I reckon her own ALP colleagues would be just as culpable as I remember many referring to her as “Julia”. The other reason is the means by which she acquired the Prime Ministership.

    Anyhow, none of this is of any relevance unless we see whether there was a difference or not in how she was referenced in the media.

  2. I am sorry MOD LIB but do not know what you are talking about so stop trying to verbal me it does not work!!
    Now as I have to get up early in the morning and now 11pm off to bed Night all

  3. Good morning bludgers!

    Yes, I’m awake preparing for a champagne breakfast with Alan Austin (the guy who does those awesome multiple choice questions in New Matilda) and friends.

    The Ruddstoration seems to have an initial bounce, but some thing that this is just the normal behaviour of a deceased feline.

    I beg to differ. It would seem to me that KRudd has only just begun to cause the wild RAbbott to fall apart. Let’s face it, the only positive policy that the Tories have released has been to replace the National Broadband Network with pigeon coops at every street corner. They are fortunate that such a protocol has been developed.

    But we do know RAbbott’s negative policies. He’ll abolish the resources rent and emissions tax, and stop the boats. But the public now likes the resources rent and the mining companies look like a bunch of cry babies for harping on about such a modicum of contribution. KRudd has already flagged that he’ll turn the carbon tax into an emissions trading scheme sooner, thus releasing public pressure off that cooker.

    Which leaves the boats, a relatively minor issue when it comes down what people say is important for them. But in any case, KRudd is off to visit Indonesia in a few days… I suspect he intends to come to some sort of historical agreement on the issue.

    And then what? What will RAbbott have to campaign on? Industrial relations perhaps? Will the LNP powers that be look to Malcolm Turnbull? Will the Australian population get the 2010 election that they never had?

  4. [mari
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:46 am | PERMALINK
    I am sorry MOD LIB but do not know what you are talking about so stop trying to verbal me it does not work!!]

    Trying to verbal you?

    Do not know what I am talking about?

    How complex is the question “Can you criticise Thatcher without being sexist?”?

    The reluctance of some to answer such a simple question pretty much answers it! :devil:

  5. Love this tweet

    Ashley Leahy ‏@AshleyLeahy 12h

    Rudd’s conflict with indo claim had the Libs in a spin, OTT Rhetoric is their territory. They were bewildered. #

  6. MOD LIB
    For the last time please show me where I have ever mentioned Maggie Thatcher on PB , I can assure you more articulate people than you have tried to verbal me and have failed

    So as I know I am correct on me never speaking about Maggie Thatcher on PB I am off to bed and :devil: back to you

  7. As a bit of an NCIS Tragic, I’ve learnt lots about the paranoia of some of the USA’s protection agencies, buy not these Goebellian/ Stalinist depths: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/28/us-army-blocks-guardian-website-access
    US army blocks access to Guardian website to preserve ‘network hygiene’

    In a startling Jack Nicholson-like moment, USA army is thundering You can’t handle the truth at its personnel
    [The US army has admitted to blocking access to parts of the Guardian website for thousands of defence personnel across the country.

    A spokesman said the military was filtering out reports and content relating to government surveillance programs to preserve “network hygiene” and prevent any classified material appearing on unclassified parts of its computer systems…

    The Pentagon insisted the Department of Defense was not seeking to block the whole website, merely taking steps to restrict access to certain content.

    But a spokesman for the Army’s Network Enterprise Technology Command (Netcom) in Arizona confirmed that this was a widespread policy, likely to be affecting hundreds of defence facilities.

    “In response to your question about access to the guardian.co.uk website, the army is filtering some access to press coverage and online content about the NSA leaks,” said Gordon Van Vleet, a Netcom public affairs officer.

    “The Department of Defense routinely takes preventative ‘network hygiene’ measures to mitigate unauthorized disclosures of classified information onto DoD unclassified networks.”]

  8. And this tweet sums up the disgrace that is the ABC

    The Geek Editorial ‏@geeksrulz 12h

    NUMPTY NEWS: @abcmarkscott has just approved a new comedy series called: At Home With the Rudds, featuring Kev & Therese under the flag.

  9. From last topic:

    BT:

    And it seems he used the wrong form of “its” too. Fran Barlow won’t be impressed.

    I noted this at the time, though as its a tweet, this could be an auto-correct mistake that slipped through unproofed.

    Go to spare parts at Ikea, Rhodes and see the same mistake in a sign that was produced through artwork and is presumably available in all Australian stores.

    Yes, I did complain.

  10. [mari
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 7:52 am | PERMALINK
    MOD LIB
    For the last time please show me where I have ever mentioned Maggie Thatcher on PB , I can assure you more articulate people than you have tried to verbal me and have failed

    So as I know I am correct on me never speaking about Maggie Thatcher on PB I am off to bed and back to you]

    Further evasion

  14. There is no doubt that Gillard made mistakes, and not all criticism of her was sexist. But there is a proportion of Australians who couldn’t abide a female PM. Especially a childless, unmarried female PM. Many, both men and women, are locked into the idea that a woman is somehow less worthy for not marrying and having kids. A disgusting attitude, but a prevalent one nonetheless in my opinion, and one that coloured many views of Gillard from day 1.

  17. [rummel
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:07 am | Permalink

    Kev jumped the shark quick with boat people conflict remark.
    ]

    Ashley Leahy ‏@AshleyLeahy 12h

    Rudd’s conflict with indo claim had the Libs in a spin, OTT Rhetoric is their territory. They were bewildered. #

  18. [
    zoomster
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    Article on Labor’s candidate for Indi –

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1605623/farmer-walsh-to-challenge-mirabella-for-indi/?cs=11

    Sigh. A few misquotes (I was standing next to her!) — they’re obviously going to spruik the independent…
    ]

    It’s been my experiance with the press that they never get anything right. Is it deliberate, or is it that communication between humans is iffy?

    It it the only time you get a summary of what the listener thought you said.

  20. MOD LIB
    For the final time I never evade anything find me a comment from me on PB or in fact anywhere! I will look in the morning(my time) for my supposed comment, I think you are a very confused person at the moment perhaps another holiday is needed :devil:
    Otherwise I assume I will see an apology from you 😀

    Those rotten 8 am gerbils ate my original comment which I know was much better and more cutting!!

  23. [mari
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:16 am | PERMALINK
    MOD LIB
    For the final time I never evade anything find me a comment from me on PB or in fact anywhere! I will look in the morning(my time) for my supposed comment, I think you are a very confused person at the moment perhaps another holiday is needed
    Otherwise I assume I will see an apology from you

    Those rotten 8 am gerbils ate my original comment which I know was much better and more cutting!!]

    mari, you have now made several posts claiming that all I am asking you is to stand by your claim that it is OK to criticise Thatcher. I am not asking you that at all. I just said that it was consensus here that it was OK to criticise Thatcher, not that you personally did it.

    What I am asking you (yet again….how many times does one have to do this?) is to answer a VERY SIMPLE QUESTION:

    Is it possible to criticise Thatcher without being sexist?

    ….it really aint as complicated as you are making it out to be….yes or no?

  24. frednk

    In this case, it’s interpretting comments and then reporting them as direct quotes — for example, she said she’d be trying to visit ‘here’ as often as possible (meaning the northern end of the electorate, it’s a biggy) and they’ve quoted it as her saying she’d ‘try and visit the North East.”

    Given that she LIVES in the North East, she wouldn’t have said that….

  25. [AJ Canberra
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:10 am | Permalink

    There is no doubt that Gillard made mistakes, and not all criticism of her was sexist. …
    but a prevalent one nonetheless in my opinion, and one that coloured many views of Gillard from day 1.]

    And obviously Labor needs a portion of that vote, it is just a pitty that to get it the whiteant got the job.

  26. [OzPol Tragic
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:19 am | PERMALINK
    For those OS or heading there, or those who’ll visit London’s National Gallery Exhibition site]

    screw that, go to the British Museum….its magnificent, notwithstanding it being a little like visiting a pawnshop of stuff nicked from various places across the globe of things thousands of years old!

  27. [I will look in the morning(my time) for my supposed comment, …]

    mari

    It’s only ML you are dealing with – he’s not worth the effort. Just enjoy your holiday.

  29. Fred
    Why was Rudd white-anting in 2012 when Gillard was not in 2010. Shorten and co (Gillard’s van guard were white-anting Rudd actively – mostly through Cassidy).

  30. [ rummel
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Frednk.

    It was a stupid remark to paper over Kev starting the boats
    ]

    Rummal like it or not Indonesia has told Abbott to get stuffed. Is Abbott going to sink the boats, bring in the gunboats or slink away?

    They are your three options.

  31. [AJ Canberra
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:10 am | PERMALINK
    There is no doubt that Gillard made mistakes, and not all criticism of her was sexist. But there is a proportion of Australians who couldn’t abide a female PM. Especially a childless, unmarried female PM. Many, both men and women, are locked into the idea that a woman is somehow less worthy for not marrying and having kids. A disgusting attitude, but a prevalent one nonetheless in my opinion, and one that coloured many views of Gillard from day 1.]

    1. There are some voters who would not vote for Gillard due to her being a woman. These voters didn’t vote for her in 2010.

    2. There are some voters who would vote for Gillard in 2010 only because she would be the first female Prime Minister. Some of these would have voted for her in 2013 for the same reason, others wouldn’t.

    There are other voters who would vote or not vote for Gillard for reasons that have nothing to do with her gender.

    So the question is whether the group who would never vote for a woman are outnumbered by those who specifically voted for her because she is a woman. My view, from personal experience in my circles, is that they most certainly did not.

  32. ModLib

    really, is the Thatcher example all you have? And why does it seem to cloud your ability to look at the actual issue being discussed?

    You’re doing logic fail again —

    “Because SOME criticism of Thatcher was NOT sexist, that means that NO criticism of any woman leader IS sexist” – that’s an obviously absurd line of thinking and yet you seem to think it’s a killer.

    SOME criticism of Thatcher (back when she was PM) was undoubtedly sexist. I’m sure SOME criticism of Abbott is sexist. Definitely SOME criticism of Gillard was sexist.

    That doesn’t mean that any of those leaders were pure and shiny and faultless when the sexist element was removed. All leaders have faults.

    By pretending that there was NO sexism in the way Julia Gillard was judged you are trivialising the whole issue.

    It’s like saying that black workers in South Africa weren’t discriminated because of their colour; their lack of education was the reason why they got the low paid jobs.

    Making excuses for racist or sexist behaviour – as you are doing, by pretending it doesn’t exist – simply allows such behaviours to go unchallenged.

    Knock it off, already. The woman’s no longer PM, you’ve got what you wanted. Going on and on about it makes you sound petty.

  33. [daretotread
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:25 am | Permalink

    Fred
    Why was Rudd white-anting in 2012 when Gillard was not in 2010. Shorten and co (Gillard’s van guard were white-anting Rudd actively – mostly through Cassidy).]

    Your view of history is differnt to mine, it is all well documented and I see no reason to go over it slowly for you once again. The Liberals will spend millions doing that for you.

    Lets see if Rudd can do better this time.

  36. [Those rotten 8 am gerbils ate my original comment which I know was much better and more cutting!!]

    Awwwww, Mari! Only a few days ago, poor widdle Tory ML was on a wocket shooting even higher to ewectorial victory. Abbott as PM; Howie as GG! Oh what utter blissss!

    Then came Thursday. Sheee-eet! Reeeeal Ruddstoration!

    Ca-raash! The Man Who Fell to Earth … did so from such a great high (and height). Head first! Bang! Splatter!

    Dreams of Electoral sugar plums dancing over head suddenly zipped; replaced by ReachTEL reality.

    Rudd’s baaa-ck! All folksy rhetorical mastery and aura of being in control he should be able to maintain at least until his newly sworn-in postElectoral Cabinet has reason to believe the leopard hasn’t changed his spots – unless Therese & the kids can keep him in line.

    And he sure won’t appoint Howie to the GGship – though he might do a Hawkie & offer it to Julia. Maybe. Perhaps (the last 2 in Chinese tones & with polite Chinese intent).

    Poor widdle Mod Lib. Maybe we should send a fruit basket to his hospital beside. Or flowers.

    That’s it! We should get NSW’s ALP Right to send him flowers, That would be a nice gesture. 👿

  37. Zoomster

    I think for the future of other women politicians it is not a good idea to focus on the sexist nature of opposition to Gillard. I am NOT denying it existed but there were many, many other factors. Also while smaller in numbers there was also a positive spin off for Gillard being female – as in amply demonstrated by many posters on this blog.

    I think at the end of the day Gillard was just not a good leader or campaigner. For some reason her political judgement was a bit off centre. She started off wobbly which was unfortunate because of the WAY she took office. When you stage a political coup, you do not have as much public indulgence for being wobbl, as you might in the days after an election.

    Trouble is that after two years she was still pretty wobbly. Oddly enough the downside of being a “listener” and NOT a control freak was that Julia had to take the rap for stuff ups by her MALE off-siders. Swan’s disappearing surplus did Julia Gillard a heap of damage as did Conroy’s media muck up.

    Under pressure from very poor polling Gillard seemed to be even wobblier (which is not surprising and would happen to most people) but there were a few wobbles too many.

    I suspect the blue tie speech and the knitting picture werethe last straws. It was just too staged and 1960s blue rinse. It was almost like a spoof.

  38. OzPol Tragic:

    very drole! 🙂

    …only slightly diminished by the fact that I have been recommending Ruddstoration for years- in fact lost a bet to ruawake that Gillard would be gone last year whereas ruawake said Rudd would NEVER lead the ALP again.

    Looks like I was right in the end ruawake….just had the timing wrong! :devil:

  39. [
    rummel
    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    Frednk.

    It was a stupid remark to paper over Kev starting the boats

    Rummal like it or not Indonesia has told Abbott to get stuffed. Is Abbott going to sink the boats, bring in the gunboats or slink away?

    They are your three options.]

    Given Abbott’s past history I have no boubt he will slink away as you are suggesting. Rudd has just gone along with Abbotts rhetoric. “I’m a Big tough guy that rides a big bike, I’m going to send back the boats”.

  41. Morning all. Well you go away for a few days and look what happens! Fiirstly, I am relieved the change to Rudd has happened. I only wish it had happened before the budget.

    Gillard will go down in history as a PM who faced a great challenge and some terribly unfair and sexist opponents, who were not confined to the opposition. The NDIS will be her lasting signature reform, as superannuation was for Keating, or deregulation was for Hawke.

    That being said, Rudd has already changed things for the better for Labor. It was not only the leadership. Conroy and Swan actually made more mistakes than Gillard. The clean out, plus new policies, is important. I said many times in recent months that a change to Rudd was not enough. But a change to Rudd, cabinet and key policies might be. At least now Labor has a chance, and the odds of keeping the Senate have vastly improved. So hard as it was, IMO it has been a good week.

  43. [the new leader ]

    …don’t you mean “Prime Minister”? You were critical of people not referring to Prime Ministers that way- why the change? :devil:

    I guess “new leader” is better than the term you used the other day: “ratf****r”

  44. [Prime Minister Kevin Rudd accepted international flights and hotel accommodation from a German foundation that controls a key part of the international tobacco industry, despite his earlier declarations that “cigarettes kill people”.

    Mr Rudd’s declarations of interests lodged with the federal parliament reveal that in October last year he was given return international tickets and two days accommodation in Berlin from the Korber Foundation, a German non-profit foundation that is the sole owner of the world’s leading supplier of machines for the production of filter cigarettes.

    The Prime Minister’s acceptance of this benefit would appear to be at odds with the Federal Labor Party’s long standing policy of not accepting political donations or any other benefits from the tobacco industry.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/pms-overseas-trip-linked-to-tobacco-group-20130628-2p360.html#ixzz2XYQo2AsG ]

    Tsk tsk to the Age, which has clearly forgotten that the ALP now stands for Whatever It Takes. And when you stand for Whatever It Takes, it is perfectly acceptable to take gifts from tobacco companies in contravention of your own party’s policies.

  48. Fred

    I think whiteanting or not is past history and should be put to bed so this will be my LAST comment on the subject.

    However I think your version of history is highly distorted. I respect Julia Gillard as a skilled and powerful player of the “game of Thrones.” She was a key plotter “numbers person” for the Latham challenge and it is just silly to think she did not put those excellent skills to use when going after Rudd.

    By denying her active involvement you demean HER and are implicitly sexist by assuming that ” a nice little lady would not do nasty stuff like plotting or white-anting”

    So let us get real. Gillard and co plotted against Rudd because they did not like him and perhaps most importantly he did not do as he was told. He upset the AWU by upsetting their employers the mining bosses.

    Feeling himself under pressure in early 2010 Rudd wobbled a few times (he had been remarkably wobble free in his first two years)

    The opportunity arose and the plotters without warning struck Rudd down. Gillard had already written her acceptance speech as we know, clearly making a mockery of claims she was not in on the plots.

    Rudd as PM simply behaved like himself, which others interpret as “white-anting.” If Gillard had been strong in herself and had made less poor judgement calls, Rudd would have had no impact at all and would have faded into history.

  50. [Tsk tsk to the Age, which has clearly forgotten that the ALP now stands for Whatever It Takes.]

    This statement could equally apply to the events of June 2010.

    I am a member of the ALP. I am not a staffer and have no particular vested interest in who leads the ALP. First and foremost, I echo the words of Penny Wong – there is a higher loyalty here, and that is to the Party.

    Why can’t people who profess to be ALP supporters look to the common enemy rather than trying to bring down those within?

    Rudd may not win, but by golly I am feeling much better about campaigning in the coming months.

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