Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)

Brisbane’s inner south again finds itself represented by a Prime Minister after another absorbing week in federal politics.

First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …

Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.

When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.

Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.

The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,189 comments on “Seat of the week: Griffith (plus ReachTEL polling)”

Comments Page 19 of 24
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  1. ML

    ‘Indeed, the big question is for how long and how comprehensively can the ALP hold the illusion of supporting its new leader…’

    Easy. Until the day after the losing election.

  2. guytaur

    [[The LNP] just live mendacity every day.]

    You have found the true way to honour Mr Combet’s contribution to Parliament.

  4. Mod lib here you go

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/i-wont-challenge-turnbull-abbott-20091125-jott.html

    Mr Abbott, who has been touted as a leadership contender and had upset his leader by changing his position on the ETS bill earlier this week, said today that Mr Turnbull had his support.

    “No, I won’t be challenging for the leadership,” Mr Abbott told the Nine Network.
    “I think Malcolm Turnbull is a very substantial individual. We are very lucky to have him in public life.”
    ————————

    and he must have known the faceless men in the liberal party were plotting

    But he said he could not speak for others in the party.
    “I don’t know what people have planned for the next few days.”

    ————–

    The liberal party faceless men surface

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-to-challenge-turnbull-20091127-jv5c.html

    Tony Abbott will challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership on Monday.
    Mr Abbott is one of several frontbenchers who resigned yesterday over dissatisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s handling of the emissions trading scheme legislation.

  5. So no Combet, no Garrett, no Gillard and no Smith…..who else is there to take over from Rudd after an election loss?

    Surely Combet?

  7. [I see that Rudd has opted to double the damage on his Indonesian card.

    He is a shocker.]

    Don’t worry, it’s all just a show. We’re not meant to listen to what he’s actually saying, we’re just meant to have feelings about it.

    Although, someone should make sure the Indonesians aren’t listening either.

  12. [‏@TurnbullMalcolm 3m
    Sorry Greg Combet is leaving parliament. He is well liked & respected on both sides. Labor loses another decent, talented straight shooter.]

  13. Abbotts Paid Parental leave – it will cost business more than the current carbon price.

    Banks have stated they will increase interest rates by 0.5%. One major retailer stated it will cost them $40 million a year.

    The effect on the cost of living and the effect on inflation will be borne by the consumer.

    And as yet, not unsurprisingly, Abbott has not produced a document that shows that the Liberals have actually done their homework on the effects to the economy.

    Abbott has shown his credentials on his knowledge of things economic. His comparison of what the Cyprus Govt did to peoples bank accounts to the Labor Govt introducing a tax on superannuation earnings over $100,000 is evidence that he is an economic minnow.

  14. Wong or Tanya P would be interesting choices (the former would need to change houses), but I just can’t see Albo personally…

  16. mod lib wrong

    Mr Abbott, who has been touted as a leadership contender and had upset his leader by changing his position on the ETS bill earlier this week

  17. Mod Lib – you would think Shorten is the most likely ultimately, but he wouldn’t want to be the immediate post-election-loss leader, he’ll leave that to some other schmuck.

  18. Sure, sure. It would be a doubly courageous woman who has a go at being prime minister after Gillard’s experience. Chaff bags, knitting, ditch the bitch; that sort of thing.

  20. AA

    ‘Banks have stated they will increase interest rates by 0.5%. One major retailer stated it will cost them $40 million a year.’

    It will not cost them a red cent. They will pass it on.

  22. BW

    Senator Wong has handled worse already.

    I think she would be great. More so because the unhinging of the likes of Fred Nile, ACL and like types with a lesbian asian woman PM.

  23. Combet resolved, without a lot of help, two seemingly intractable problems; Patricks and James Hardie.

    He could have resolved the NSW ALP if asked.

  24. A lighter touch = we need it today!

    [MargoK ‏@pepiermargot 2m
    Breaking: 457 fan club ready to meet Stunt Boy at mine site visit pic.twitter.com/FOINNOtSFI ]

  25. @Mod Lib/911

    So in your party, you challenge the position on the bases of a disagreement of said policy?

    That’s sad.

  30. Scarpat

    From your link: ‘He said he would be a team player. He lied. He whispered his treason to any sympathetic Labor Party or journalistic ear.’

    Spot on.

  34. deblonay@879. Sociopaths often reach the top because they dedicate all their efforts towards achieving that goal. Reasonable people, even highly ambitious ones, have a certain degree of perspective on these things: ie , “if I don’t become the next Director-General of Paper Clip Processing my life will still be rich and useful. ”

    Also, workplace sociopaths usually work out early on how to avoid doing much actual work, and that leaves them with lots of time to plot and plan their irresistible rise and to devise all sorts of bogus ways to impress the people who can help them while their rivals are toiling away doing a good job in the (quite often) mistaken belief that this will be noticed and rewarded.

    Of course, workplace sociopaths moving up organizations often receive help from similarly sociopathic types further up the line (with the mentor often aiming at exploitation but sometimes eventually finding themselves the one who is exploited). Sociopathy is a disease that can infect organizations: especially those not subject to much regulation or critical external scrutiny: universities, charitable and religious organizations (think the Catholic Church), government agencies (especially quangos and GBEs: think AWB) and the internal workings of political parties, especially at lower levels.

    Latham was onto something today when he suggested that Rudd represented a sort of apotheosis of Labor’s organizational failings.

  35. Sean tisme and Mod lib

    here is another abbott lie exposed, they change position on the pacific solution

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/sound-asylum-policy-lost-in-sea-of-party-politics-20120702-21c9x.html

    The Coalition offers only a rehash of Howard-era fixes that all parties were happy to see gone when Kevin Rudd came to power in 2007. As I wrote elsewhere last week, the shadow immigration minister, Sharman Stone, said in late 2009: “No we don’t need the Pacific Solution with Nauru, Manus Island now because of course we built Christmas Island as an offshore detention facility.”
    Official advice indicates that old Coalition’s policies won’t meet today’s challenges anyway.

    ———

  36. [927
    Sean Tisme

    IF you vote Rudd you will get Shorten.

    Australia can’t risk it]

    Whereas if you vote Abbott, you will not only get Abbott, you will get Pyne, Robb, Bishop, Mirabella, Johnstone, Bernardi, Cormann, Joyce and, best of all, Brough.

  37. Scarpat

    [He said he would be a team player. He lied. He whispered his treason to any sympathetic Labor Party or journalistic ear.]

    Pretty good summary IMO.

  38. 931

    You got in first but I acknowledged that Abbott could go the way of Terry Mills or half term Ted because he is a bit unstable and the dries hate him.

  39. Boerwar

    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

    AA

    ‘Banks have stated they will increase interest rates by 0.5%. One major retailer stated it will cost them $40 million a year.’

    It will not cost them a red cent. They will pass it on.
    ——————————————————-

    which was the point of the paragraph that you seem to have missed/avoided regarding the cost of living and inflation and that the cost will be paid by consumers

  40. John Howard has played his part beautifully. Come in spinner. The reactions of Downer, Julie Bishop and now the old man are precisely what Rudd wanted.

    Yes, perhaps he pushed the envelope slightly on Indonesia. But he had no choice. Labor’s position was/is so diabolical – and boats, sad to say, are a really big deal out there in voterland.

    So in one fell swoop, Rudd has changed the conversation completely; put the LNP on the defensive on an issue they thought was a sure-fire winner and forced them to wheel out Howard, to remind them of WorkChoices and all the other reasons the electorate voted so enthusiastically dumped him and his mates.

  41. DTT

    [Not Menzies house but a Lib all the same.]

    Not a big ask on Meher – he was quite open from the start about being inclined to vote for the Libs.

  42. ST@599

    Up until now I thought you were young and/or ill-informed and/or ignorant – maybe just plain stupid – with your comments.

    Now I see the streak in you, which you are happy to share with us, which would make you at home guarding and helping to run Trablinka.

    Some of us would still like to travel outside Australia and be proud to be Australian.

    I suggest your comments, if they are sincerely held and not just a stir, belong somewhere over on the extreme right of politics occupied formerly by National Socialist or the current Liberal/Nationals outfit.

  43. [Amazingly I believe the man when he states personal reasons and nothing to do with leadership change for retirement.]

    And your next post no doubt will be about the fairies that live at the bottom of your garden.

    Combet is pretty obviously damned pissed off and hinted as such. Greg Combet will be a serious loss, as he is one of the few ministers whose stature has increased with each passing year of the Labor government – he has been the ‘go to’ man who has had to sort out a few political messes – he might see more coming and had enough.

  45. briefly

    ‘Whereas if you vote Abbott, you will not only get Abbott, you will get Pyne, Robb, Bishop, Mirabella, Johnstone, Bernardi, Cormann, Joyce and, best of all, Brough.’

    Ain’t life wonderful.

  46. Boerwar

    Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 5:32 pm | Permalink

    AA ‘If you vote Tony Abbott you will get Tony Abbott’ Yep. Anbd if you vote Rudd, you will get Rudd.’
    ————————————————-

    and at this time I am happy to have Rudd as PM. A far better choice than ANY Liberal.

  47. AA

    ‘which was the point of the paragraph that you seem to have missed/avoided regarding the cost of living and inflation and that the cost will be paid by consumers’

    My bad.

  48. [IF you vote Rudd you will get Shorten. ]

    If you vote Rudd you will get Pell.

    And if you vote Abbott you will get Pell.

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