First the ReachTEL polling. Yesterday morning the Seven Network brought us a big sample automated phone poll of 3018 respondents which broadly corroborated the Morgan SMS poll in returning the Coalition lead to margin-of-error territory. The poll had Labor at 38.3% on the primary vote, the Coalition on 45.1% and the Greens on 8.7%, panning out to 52-48 in favour of the Coalition after preferences. Now Fairfax brings electorate-level ReachTEL polls of Maribyrnong (located in western Melbourne and held by Bill Shorten), Chisholm (eastern Melbourne, Anna Burke), Blaxland (western Sydney, Jason Clare) and McMahon (western Sydney, Chris Bowen), which have Labor’s two-party vote at 58.6%, 55.2% and 58.9% for the first three, with McMahon annoyingly not provided but Labor evidently in front. Earlier ReachTEL polling showed Labor losing all bar Maribyrnong. Now on to a Seat of the Week I’ve been holding back for a special occasion …
Kevin Rudd’s electorate of Griffith covers inner city Brisbane immediately south of the Brisbane River, from South Brisbane east to Bulimba and Queensport, south to Annerley and south-west to Carina Heights. The seat was called Oxley until 1934, the name later being revived for an unrelated new Ipswich-based seat in 1949. Highly marginal historically, Griffith changed hands between Liberal and Labor in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, 1966, 1977, 1996 and 1998. Don Cameron won the seat for the Liberals at the 1966 landslide and then had his position strengthened by redistribution, enabling to hold on to the seat through the Whitlam years. A redistribution at the 1977 election moved the seat heavily in Labor’s favour, resulting in Cameron switching to the new Gold Coast seat of Fadden and Griffith being won for Labor by Ben Humphreys.
When Humphreys retired at the 1996 election the Labor preselection was won by Kevin Rudd, the former diplomat who wielded great influence as chief-of-staff to Wayne Goss during his tenure as Queensland Premier from 1989 to 1996. In doing so he established a factional association with the locally dominant AWU sub-faction of the Right, which secured his preselection despite grumblings that the state branch was failing to meet affirmative action standards. However, the statewide rout that Labor suffered at the 1996 election saw Rudd fall it his first electoral hurdle, with Graeme McDougall gaining Griffith for the Liberals off a 6.2% swing. Rudd returned for a second attempt amid the far more favourable circumstances of 1998, picking up a 3.9% swing to unseat McDougall by a margin of 2.4%.
Rudd established a formidable electoral record in Griffith, picking up a 3.3% and 2.4% swings against the trend of the 2001 and 2004 elections. The electorate was substantially reshaped by redistribution at the 2004 election, absorbing inner city areas at East Brisbane, South Brisbane and Dutton Park while its eastern parts were hived off to the new seat of Bonner. In what may have been an early portent of Rudd’s electoral impact, the booths which were transferred out of the electorate contributed to a surprise defeat for Labor in Bonner by swinging heavily to the Liberals in his absence. As his party’s candidate for the prime ministership in 2007 Rudd enjoyed a further 3.8% swing in 2007, and as its recently spurned ex-leader in 2010 he suffered what by Queensland standards was a relatively mild swing of 3.9%.
The Liberal National Party candidate for the coming election is Bill Glasson, former president of the Australian Medical Association. Glasson’s father, Bill Glasson Sr, was a state National Party MP and minister in the Bjelke-Petersen, Cooper and Ahern governments.
Sean,
http://www.unhcr.org/4d8c5b109.html
So, the Liberals have exhumed Howard. He does not intentionally do stand up comedy at all well.
This graph shows the real trend of boat arrivals (scroll down). Sean is right and Achmed is wrong.
http://www.bigpondmoney.com.au/illegal-boat-arrivals-what-it-really-costs
There is no reason for the coalition to be above 45% in primary or 2 pp voting
[ If people like Combet are calling it quits I really don’t see what the point is anymore. ]
Exactly. What does Labor actually stand for any more? Why do we need a party that just seems to be a mindless Rudd cheer squad?
Rudd has already demonstrated that he will change his mind even on the “greatest moral challenge of our time” if it looks like it might get too difficult.
As a leader Rudd looks a lot like a weather vane. Just like Abbott.
Is this really the best we can do?
Psephos
[Quiz: who is the silliest poster here:
a) M Bob, with his absurd media/polls conspiracy theories?
b) JV, with his endless thundering about non-existent “faction bosses”?
c) Borewar, for being a crashing boer?
d) Tom-the-best, for making Hanson-Young look like a realist?]
e) William Bowe who invariably writes, just as the debate is getting interesting; “New Thread”, “New Thread”
@Sean/800
No you don’t take it out, you include it as it was under Howard Leadership.
787
Did you miss when I confirmed that I supported a democratic world federal government as a means of achieving equality and that my opposition to immigration control was part of this.
Looking at team Rudd, of the senior team, we have Wong, Albo and Burke left. Bowen, a major failure in his original portfolio, is back. Two of those four have done their honest best to keep Rudd out of where he is.
Whoops. Left Shorten out. Mustn’t do that.
@Psephos/803
No, Sean is wrong, boats still coming in Howard Era.
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 4:39 pm | PERMALINK
@Sean/800
No you don’t take it out, you include it as it was under Howard Leadership.]
What if you are comparing before and after a government policy change?
Surely then you look before and after the policy change, don’t you?
If this is a joke, I’m not laughing. If it’s not, I despair.
[Mark Scott @abcmarkscott 59s
Just completed the Kokoda Track. A week in the wilderness and off the communications grid. Did I miss anything?]
Boerwar
Are you sure you are not diagnosing yourself
[Glibness and Superficial Charm]
Just about every politician including Gillard, Hockey, Abbott, Rudd, Albo, Hawke, Keating , Whitlam.
It goes with the territory
[ Manipulative and Conning
They never recognize the rights of others and see their self-serving behaviors as permissible.]
Gillard, most of the NSW right, Swan, most of the leading unionists, Abbott. Everyone involved in the plot to remove Rudd
[They appear to be charming, yet are covertly hostile and domineering, seeing their victim as merely an instrument to be used. They may dominate and humiliate their victims.]
BW I think this is potentially libelous . You have no evidence for this even for Abbott. Frankly it is rather obscene.It is certainly nutty as a fruitcake
[ Grandiose Sense of Self
Feels entitled to certain things as “their right.”[
OK I will give this one to you aka Rudd. But add in Abbott, Shorten, Conroy, Swan and indeed most politicians – especially the males.
[Pathological Lying
Has no problem lying coolly and easily and it is almost impossible for them to be truthful on a consistent basis.]
Agree with Mod Lib. Gillard more than anyone else. is the consummate liar. Rudd does not usually lie – he avoids the situation and goes silent but rarely lies.
[Can create, and get caught up in, a complex belief about their own powers and abilities. Extremely convincing and even able to pass lie detector tests.]
A bit bonkers here BW
[Lack of Remorse, Shame or Guilt]
As ML said Gillard,never admitted any of her flip flopping, just played the gender card.
Rudd and even Abbott have shown remorse and shame. Jeepers Rudd was caned because he accepted guilt over pink batts. Cant have it both ways
[A deep seated rage, which is split off and repressed, is at their core. Does not see others around them as people, but only as targets and opportunities. Instead of friends, they have victims and accomplices who end up as victims. The end always justifies the means and they let nothing stand in their way.]
What a bloody outrageous thing to say about anybody
[Shallow Emotions
When they show what seems to be warmth, joy, love and compassion it is more feigned than experienced and serves an ulterior motive. Outraged by insignificant matters, yet remaining unmoved and cold by what would upset a normal person. Since they are not genuine, neither are their promises.]
Agree with ML here. This is clearly a load of old cobblers
[Incapacity for Love]
Ask Therese and Jessica. There can be little doubt about Rudd’s very genuine love of his family
[ Need for Stimulation
Living on the edge. Verbal outbursts and physical punishments are normal.]
Probably applicable to most of us on PB
[No, Sean is wrong, boats still coming in Howard Era.
]
Well in 2002 that should be boat, not boats, given there was only 1.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/27/credit_crunch_time_china_low_growth_new_normal
bludgers may find this bloke worth reading. You can register and read Michael Pettis – smartest guy in the room when it comes to China’s economy.
His main thesis is that China’s growth must fall to a rate below 5% pa, and this will be difficult to bring about. The implications for this economy – and for our politics – are profound, of course.
We just have to get used to it. Our economy must adapt and do so consciously, quickly and deliberately. We need strong, assertive and dynamic leadership, and an end to the well-rehearsed denialism to which we are accustomed.
I am becoming a broken record…but I’m not going to stop!
Where we will this leadership come from?
Sean Tisme
“Rudd has exactly 3 months to stop the boats otherwise the punters can expect more of the same from incompetent Labor”
Sean, this is the first post of yours I can safely say I (mostly) agree with. The incompetence part was not necessary though and your point would have been stronger without it.
Luckily it seems from Carr’s comments that Rudd’ll make Gillard look like SH-Y when it comes to boat people. Labor has come to realise that:
a) Australians are inexplicably scared of brown people on boats
and
b) the brown people on boats don’t vote.
Fatal combination for those who wish to see them treated in a more humane manner I’m afraid. This is an issue you WILL see a lot of movement on from Rudd. And that movement will be a rather drastic one to the east when facing north. A “lurch to the right” if you will.
[Sean,
http://www.unhcr.org/4d8c5b109.html%5D
Slackboy now compare:
http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2012-2013/BoatArrivals
Howard stopped the boats. It’s not up for debate, he stopped the boats. The numbers make this is a historical fact.
A real political collapse
Egypt on the Brink of disaster
_____________
Foreign currency reserves exhausted/clashes between the The Moslem Brothers and liberals/petrol and power shortages/ food shortages and high inflation for basic foods/and now a weekend of mass rallies in the Major cities against the Morsi regime which is rudderless
A dire situation..makes Oz look like Paradise
http://www.moonofalabama.org/
Sean tisme
How government failed to stop the boat people ,
@Mod Lib/815
In Howard era according to that graph:
2002: 1
2003: 53
2004: 15
2005: 11
2006: 60
2007: 148
2008: 161
Not exactly “Stopping the boats” is it?
AussieAchmed@527
That has always been the case since 2010 and it continues in full swing.
Take for example briefly’s comment:
briefly@523
This shows with crystal clarity that he is not the rusted on Labor supporter he has always pretended to be and I am no longer deceived by him.
Sarah R
Godd post.
Psephos,
You do know that the Howard govt stopped reporting numbers of asylum seekers in 2002. We still had >5000 turn up.
Don’t confuse that misleading graph. 1 boat landed in 2002 but many more still tried to make the trip.
Average boats per year under Howards Pacific Solution: 2
Boats last year under Labor: 258
Can we cut the crap now?
Psephos
Your name seems to have dropped off your list. No doubt it was meant to read:
Psephos – for repeatedly telling deliberate untruths about asylum seekers to suit your racist political agenda within the party.
Sean tisme
Howard government failed to stop the boat people , it had to bring in legislation to allow some refugees/boat people into the community
because Howard government pacific solution was failing to stop the people from coming
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 4:35 pm | Permalink
Boat arrivals under Howard 2001 – 2006 5500+
Not quite the one ST raves about
Take 2001 out(Pacific Solution was introduced LATE 2001 dumbass) and give us the number again.
Go on… I dare you
——————————————————–
No. You want to make a comparison you cant pick and choose what numbers you can use…. You really did bang your head on the bottom of the gene pool..
1996 to 2006 roughly 12,000.
And during that time there was the children overboard lie and the demonization of asylum seekers for political advantage….what a disgusting thing to do!!!…not very Christian…..does Howard still go to church and beg forgiveness with a couple of Hail Marys
[787
Psephos
Quiz: who is the silliest poster here:
a) M Bob, with his absurd media/polls conspiracy theories?
b) JV, with his endless thundering about non-existent “faction bosses”?
c) Borewar, for being a crashing boer?
d) Tom-the-best, for making Hanson-Young look like a realist?]
Tom…by two furlongs. He is in a class of his own. Even the bogus twit cannot compete with Tom’s fantasy ride.
[Not exactly “Stopping the boats” is it?]
Between 1 and 148 is a lot different to 17 thousand, don’t you think? However, you are right, it was not 0 and will never be 0.
Sean, http://www.solidarity.net.au/35/howard%E2%80%99s-pacific-solution-didn%E2%80%99t-stop-the-boats/
Player One – “What does Labor actually stand for any more?”
NBN, Employment, AAA Economy, Road/Rail, Education, Carbon Pollution reduction, Disability Insurance, Accountability re Child Sexual Abuse, Aged Care, Tasmanian forests, Ocean Parks, Murray/Darling water……
Mod Lib and SeanTisme
Has not praised an Abbott led policy
why is that
lizzie
That is funny, either way.
[Psephos,
You do know that the Howard govt stopped reporting numbers of asylum seekers in 2002. We still had >5000 turn up.
Don’t confuse that misleading graph. 1 boat landed in 2002 but many more still tried to make the trip.]
Ahhh a conspiracy theory. Don’t like the numbers from a graph produced by the LABOR GOVERNMENT so just invent shit up.
It’s not up for debate. Howard stopped the boats.
@Sean/818
Between 2001 and February 2008 a total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities. Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.[85]
70% are resettled !=successful policy.
The whole policy of the Coalition Party is based on the TPV.
Which is why the Coalition Party are so hung up on the TPV.
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 4:47 pm | PERMALINK
Not exactly “Stopping the boats” is it?
Between 1 and 148 is a lot different to 17 thousand, don’t you think? However, you are right, it was not 0 and will never be 0.
———-
what about the people , more were let in by the howard government
[822….bemused]
bemused, it will be a sorry day if I have to choose between my conscience and pleasing you.
Psephos
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 4:37 pm | Permalink
This graph shows the real trend of boat arrivals (scroll down). Sean is right and Achmed is wrong.
—————————————————–
excuse me…in what part of my post was I wrong?
Rudd now has an opportunity to do a captain’s pick for Combet’s seat.
Let’s see… what about Jessica?
Yes, we call that migration Meguire!
[@steveUsername1 3m
Meanwhile 13 Liberal and Nationals MP’s have resigned from Parliament in 2013. Why?. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2013#Liberal … … … #auspol ]
@Sean/825
That’s not stopping the boats if the average was really 2 boats per year.
Stopping the boats means zero per year.
Mod Lib
Posted Saturday, June 29, 2013 at 4:49 pm | PERMALINK
Yes, we call that migration Meguire!
——–
they come from those boats , so howard didnt stop anything
Bemised
Not so sure about Briefly – think he is an embittered Beazley Boy, but I did our Meher Baba the other day. Not Menzies house but a Lib all the same.
Sean Tisme@800
Your full on now back to your old ways truthy.
Conseratives in a tizz
_______________
Having dragged out Lord Downer from his Grand Home in the Hills they have now got old Howard into the fray
Suddenly they are desperate and it shows…and that Mad Woman Senator,last might was the icing on the cake
Rudd has the telent for keeping on the go and he has
captured the initiative in a way Gillard never seemed to do
omr turns on the media wondering what next he will do…and the Libs are adrift in his wake
Mod Lib
Still waiting for the policy which Abbott has got you excited about
lizzie
If you run through the list it is notable that most of them have enjoyed very little time as anything other than backbenchers. Most of them are going nowhere in terms of ministerial careers. And most of them are getting long in the tooth.
In other words, it is arguably normal turnover.
If you look at Rudd’s collateral damage, they are mostly senior people at the height of their powers.
Okay Zoidlord you can not stop every single boat.
But Gillard this financial year has 25,000. We know Howard got the number well below 1000.
But Labor have given up trying as far as I’m concerned and Rudd’s procrastinating yet again. The boats will never be put down to manageable levels again AFAIC until a Coalition Government is elected.