Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, with Kevin Rudd leading 51-34 as preferred prime minister.

David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.

UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [I would have Crean as deputy or Treasurer.]
    Their was a ballot for deputy leader by the entire caucus. It was Crean V Albanese. Albanese won 61/38.

  2. Have been to church here in Aberdeen with the Gordon clan, no the roof didn’t fall in!! Quite enjoyed it as was Sunday School presentation asked while I was there what was going to happen at next Oz elections. No answer despite people like Centre Bemused Alias Leftie etc making Kevin a saint at the moment and returning to his rightful place and getting rid of the “pretend” PM for last 3 years. These comments are the ones that upset me the most, please stop them

  3. confessions

    ‘O’Connor has benefited greatly from a Labor govt, even more so since the Liberals were ousted.

    ‘Nation building project’ or ‘Federal black spot’ signs abound down here.

    For all his faults, Crook has done far more for this electorate than Tuckey ever did.’

    This supports Psephos’ contention on the selling power of Alabenese.

  4. Borewar, how about Emerson not mentioning anything about the likelihood of US intelligence monitoring Australian tender proposals in competition with Americans? He was trade minister after all, yet he didn’t ever mention the threat to our businesses posed by Snowden’s revelations.

    I don’t find it productive to dwell too much on these profiles that you mention, but the polls indicate that they won’t be missed.

  5. SO

    ‘Just as long as the polls are statistically tied during the last week of election campaigning I’ll be more than happy.’

    Are you wanting a cobbled-together minority government in the House combined with a Senate BOP held by Madigan?

    Now would not that be the last straw?

  6. As the poll experts here have pointed out, the TPP vote for Labor may be less significant, at this point as to where the votes are to be found.

    The election is to be won and lost largely in NSW and Queensland this time around – as has been the case for some time.

    A 51-49 to Labor that does not translate into seats is of no use whatsoever.

    I think there are very slim pickings for Labor in each of WA, SA, Tas and probably Victoria. If Labor can hold its ground here but win seats in NSW and Qld then the 51-49 to Labor means something. However, if the improved vote comes elsewhere then it will be a bit like Big Kimbo’s time. Win the TPP but lose the election.

  7. the spectator @ 1292: To say that the changes of government have been associated with TPP votes for the incoming party of more than 50% says nothing about what the result would have been with an exact 50/50 split. Of course, there were elections in 1954, 1961 and 1969 when the ALP lost with more than 50% of the TPPV, but that was before the rural weighting was cleaned out of the system.

  8. So Newspoll out in the field to stop the Ruddmentum.

    Expect a 53/54 to 47/46 LNP’s way with a nothing to see here story from the Australian.

  9. By the way, I thought it was a hilarious moment and reaction from members in the HoR during Smiths valedictory when he suggested most misunderstood Conroy, 😆

  10. Boerwar:

    It means he’s been making statements he can’t substantiate, or that he’s about to flounce off twitter.

  11. As someone who was brought up on the Left mantra that you support the leader, events of recent times have been challenging.

    But the principle is sound, as a house divided will fall – especially in the face of vested conservative interests.

    It reminds me much of the Hawke / Keating baton change. We honour the legacy of the vanquished, indeed laud the achievements of a great leader. But then we move on united to the next phase under the new leader.

  12. 51/49 is far better than 43/57 and if we lose the Fibs do not get Senate this time and it will be most unlikely they will get it in three years also.
    Better than loss and no control of senate for six years.

  13. marky marky

    ‘For treasurer i would have had Crean anyway. He is a very good head kicker and effective’

    I believe I have previously posted that I thought that Crean useful as a minister for regional development, or whatever the title was, in an avuncular way.

    As for head kicking, Crean has demonstrated an uncanny ability to kick himself in the head during the last two Rudd’s attempts to destroy Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

  14. Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 9:44 pm | PERMALINK
    SO

    ‘Just as long as the polls are statistically tied during the last week of election campaigning I’ll be more than happy.’

    Are you wanting a cobbled-together minority government in the House combined with a Senate BOP held by Madigan?

    Now would not that be the last straw?

    Get out of that dark place you’ve found yourself in, Bw.

  15. KB

    I don’t discount the betting odds but I think they have limited value as a predictor.

    And Centre, I don’t know what you are talking about?

    Are you suggesting betting odds are a predictor of outcomes? If you are, I just wonder about who is over-stating or understating understanding of betting odds?

  16. [Angela Maguire ‏@angelamaguire Protected account 7s
    Twitter, may have missed your excitement, but RU486 on the PBS good? Very good??]

    I noticed this this morning. Surprised nobody has remarked upon it.

  17. RD

    ‘Get out of that dark place you’ve found yourself in, Bw.’

    When the Labor Party gets rid of its sicko leader, my dark place will be healed.

  18. [Are you wanting a cobbled-together minority government in the House combined with a Senate BOP held by Madigan?

    Now would not that be the last straw?]
    What are you talking about? If the last poll on election day is 51/49 either way then the election could go either way. Sure it could be a hung parliament, but on those figures either party may get a majority just depending on where swings are.

    This could be a peculiar election with QLD swinging to Labor while every other state swings away from Labor.

    Labor’s strategy should be to maximise the QLD swing while minimising the swings in other states.

    And if the over all result is close to 50/50, the Greens would most likely hold the balance of power in the Senate after July 1 next year.

  19. Pedant Beazley won more than 50% of 2PP in 1998 but lost, yet Hawke won only about 49% of 2PP in 1990 and won, if the election is in the 51-49% range either way it all depends on the swing in the marginal seats

  20. confessions

    ‘Boerwar:

    It means he’s been making statements he can’t substantiate, or that he’s about to flounce off twitter.’

    Strange. But then we live in strange times.

  21. At the risk of splitting hairs, are they saying “the highest ALP primary since the start of this year”, or “the highest ALP primary this year”.

    They’re not the same thing. Guess we’ll soon find out.

  22. [As for head kicking, Crean has demonstrated an uncanny ability to kick himself in the head during the last two Rudd’s attempts to destroy Prime Minister Julia Gillard.]

    This made me laugh! You and I need to have a drink together, I so love your dry humour. 😆

  23. Mari

    [Have been to church here in Aberdeen with the Gordon clan, no the roof didn’t fall in!!]

    And no enemy clan locked you in & set fire to the church while you were in it?

    Seemed to me to have been a very favourite Scotch way of settling scores. From Balquhidder, where OH’s paternal ancstors are buried, to Skye, I lost count.

    I gather the Campbells’ real crime at Glencoe was slaughtering the Macdonalds whilst they were sleeping off the grog & sex, so prob went straight to hell; instead of doing the civilized thing & burning them to death whilst they were praying, so went straight to heaven.

  24. the spectator@1292

    Just as long as the polls are statistically tied during the last week of election campaigning I’ll be more than happy.


    has there been a change of government on 50% TPP vote? haven’t all change of govt elections in recent time: 1975, 1983, 1996, 2007 all required 52% plus TPP votes. ie 50/50 or 49/51 wont cut it for Abbott.

    Less than 50-50 would have won it for Abbott last time but for having indies win two of the seats he would have won on 2PP and then support Labor. The Coalition with 49.9% 2PP won the 2PP in 76 seats.

    It’s not happened federally that the opposition wins with <50% 2PP but it could happen someday. It has happened for various reasons that governments win with <50% but some of those reasons don’t apply this time. It’s much easier to do if coming off a big win in the last election.

  25. [Pedant Beazley won more than 50% of 2PP in 1998 but lost, yet Hawke won only about 49% of 2PP in 1990 and won, if the election is in the 51-49% range either way it all depends on the swing in the marginal seats]
    Usually it is much easier for a Government to win with less than 50% of the vote, but since Labor has fewer seats than the Coalition it seems very unlikely for Labor to win government without keeping its 2pp vote above 50%.

  26. izatso?

    [Ace Conehead….
    Wooooo ! neat work !
    Alex Harvey was known as ‘the Scottish Frank Zappa’
    Poroti
    one for you….. The Sensational Alex Harvey Band…..

    Thanx fer that….]

    Glad you liked it. Yes, Alex is one of the best to come out of Scotland. Pity they can’t make decent whiskey (or spell it either)…heh…heh…

  27. Hmmm… Now Brent is in with an outlandish Newspoll tweet…

    When they play games, usually it’s on the low end for Labor.

  28. Tricot@1327

    KB

    I don’t discount the betting odds but I think they have limited value as a predictor.

    I agree and I repeat my permanent disclaimer (which I should remember to state more often) that while I may talk about betting odds from time to time at no time should that be taken as a claim about predictiveness of a future event.

  29. [Are you suggesting betting odds are a predictor of outcomes?]

    If you do not know the answer to that question, do not attempt betting seriously…you will lose 😉

  30. Radguy

    ‘Borewar, how about Emerson not mentioning anything about the likelihood of US intelligence monitoring Australian tender proposals in competition with Americans? He was trade minister after all, yet he didn’t ever mention the threat to our businesses posed by Snowden’s revelations.

    I don’t find it productive to dwell too much on these profiles that you mention, but the polls indicate that they won’t be missed.’

    My general assessment of Emerson is that he was a somehwat above average minister with a fine policy brain. Some might say that Rudd has done a good job getting rid of Emerson for his singing alone. I would say that the talent pool is so shallow that Labor cannot afford to squander people like Emerson on the altar of Rudd’s ambition.

    I would be astonished if the Australian Government did not already know all about internet skulduggery by the Americans and by every one else in the world, whether it be private sector or government sector. It is the norm, not the exception. I do hope that Australia is an adequate player in this global phenomenum.

  31. So, how low does the Newspoll have to be before the Labor Party replaces Rudd as Prime Minister before the next Federal elections?

  32. Wow Centre!

    You don’t know what you are talking about either?

    I took you to be essentially with it!

    Put simply, if betting odds were accurate predictors of outcomes, the bookies would be out of a job!

    That doe not mean to say I discount them as food for thought but a punt is still punt!

  33. [ Angela Maguire ‏@angelamaguire Protected account 7s
    Twitter, may have missed your excitement, but RU486 on the PBS good? Very good??

    I noticed this this morning. Surprised nobody has remarked upon it. ]

    Anything that Abbott opposes, I’m in favor of!

    Seriously though – this is unambiguously good news.

    But the timing does seem a bit odd, doesn’t it?

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