David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.
UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.
I have had nothing but praise and admiration for PM Gillard. I think she did well and achieved plenty under very difficult circumstances.
However it doesn’t change my view that it appears that we have had the Deputy in charge and now we have the real PM back at the helm.
The two posters who criticised my post should get a grip.
At least I’m not making outrageous claims that Labor’s prospects have not improved since the switch back to Rudd as some here are suggesting.
Knights, Warriors, Cows, bang bang bang 😎
It’s a bit too early to guess how things will pan out between now and the election, but speaking as someone who has never had any connection with any party, I would view Mr Rudd as off to a flying start. No doubt if he ultimately loses the ALP will work out an appropriate fate for him. But if he wins, there could be nothing, but nothing, nuttier than the suggestions which have been floated by some here that he should still be forced or eased out. The ALP has certainly come close to paying a very high price for showing contempt for the voters by displacing a publicly popular sitting PM in 2010. To do it twice would be terminal.
[Rob Mitchell is a good bloke and I wish him well. Unfortunately, I live in Jaga Jaga, so I can’t give him my vote.]
I’m sure he could use your help.
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23ThisIsLabor&src=hash
It’s all very well for people to say that politics should all be about policy. But, you can have the best policies, and that still takes you nowhere if you lack the ability to sell them, especially to a largely disengaged electorate.
Whether people like or dislike Rudd, he is a brilliant campaigner. He can sell policy. The electorate like him. I say to those still bitter about the change, think about this: who provides the best chance of preserving at least a high percentage of the reforms that most of us agree have been good reforms over the last three years? Kevin Rudd, or Tony Abbott? The bottom line is, you can’t do policy from opposition.
We all know where Tony Abbott wants to take us on policy. Cash for polluters, winding back super contributions, bringing back individual workplace agreements-need I go on? Labor could have prevented none of the above had the election result gone the way it was clearly heading. A change had to be made for there to be any chance of preserving the reforms of the last three years.
[This sounds fine and dandy. But only if you believe Rudd will win.]
Rudd may win, but probably won’t.
Gillard had no hope of winning.
[But I’m not so sure this is going to happen. I always thought Gillard had Abbott’s number. I’m not sure Rudd has.]
Well clearly you don’t have a clue about politics. If Gillard had Abbott’s number, why did ~55% of Australians say they wanted to vote for the Coalition? Why did more people prefer Abbott as PM instead of Gillard?
[The electorate knows Rudd’s deficiencies now, and they are massive.]
They also generally like him, hence he has immediately taken a Preferred PM lead over Abbott and improved the Labor vote by ~5%.
[So much so that his own party tore him down, and a large number of senior Labor people are now resigning rather than having to face the prospect of working with him again.]
Most of those are just by-elections that would’ve occurred next year anyway.
[I’m not interested in starting an argument about the fine detail of this, and which faction was right and which was wrong – it is simply the case that Rudd was a dysfunctional PM that had to be – and was – removed before his whole charade of a government collapsed collapsed under its own internal fractures.]
Great and doesn’t it demonstrate poorly Gillard was doing for 57 out of 102 MPs to choose to replace Gillard with Rudd?
As usual, you are applying completely different standards to Gillard and Rudd. If you hold Gillard to the same standards you hold Rudd it is obvious that Rudd has the best chance of winning the election.
[So the only possible justification for bringing Rudd back is that he wins the election.]
Well this is a pretty idiotic way to reason because it is impossible to know if he will win the election until the election is held. But he will sure as hell do a lot better than Gillard would’ve done considering most Australians don’t like her.
[Then he can be (again) dealt with if he gets out of hand. You can argue as to whether this is likely to be needed or not, or whether Rudd has indeed “learned his lesson” – again, it is not germane to the subject at hand.]
This was a risk worth taking given how bad Gillard’s numbers were and have been for over 2 years.
[What is germane is that Labor has re-appointed a known dysfunctional leader in a move that looks like simple desperation, and is obviously a last ditch effort to win the election.]
Voters don’t care about this. IN fact there is a lot of sympathy for Rudd in the electorate because many people still don’t understand why Gillard took over from him in the first place.
[It has not been done for any ideological, moral or even factional reasons. Not even for the entirely specious reason of “righting past wrongs”.]
You are forgetting “Gillard couldn’t win” and “Coalition probably would’ve won the Senate too with Gillard as leader”.
[The only possible reason for returning for Rudd should be to win the election. And if he does, I will admit it may have been justifiable.]
What about the fact that if on election day the Coalition wins only 51% of the vote they will probably win government but they won’t win the Senate? IF the Coalition got 55% on election day they probably would win the Senate and therefore the Rudd/Gillard government legacies would just be blown away within 1 term.
[But if he does not, Labor has now sunk itself to a level from which it is unlikely ever to recover. It will be (rightly) considered a laughingstock for decades to come. Knocking off two reigning PM’s in a row? When the only opposition was a fruitcake like Abbott? Who would ever vote for them again, trust them again, or ever believe anything they say again?]
Most voters don’t care Labor got rid of Gillard. Voters were well prepared to do it themselves. Labor made a smart move in taking away that opportunity from the electorate.
[So Rudd has achieved an initial bounce in the polls. That was inevitable – only the size of the bounce was unknown. But so far the bounce is not (of itself) enough to win the election]
You’re being a hypcrite and applying different standards to Gillard again. Gillard’s numbers would’ve given the Coalition the Senate and reduced Labor to just 40 or 45 MPs in the House.
[This was a very, very risky move by Labor. If it works it may be applauded. If it fails it will definitely and quite rightly be absolutely ridiculed. At present, it looks more like failing than succeeding.]
Whereas sticking with Gillard wouldn’t have been a risky move, it would’ve just handed the election to the Coalition.
[The electorate like him. I say to those still bitter about the change, think about this: who provides the best chance of preserving at least a high percentage of the reforms that most of us agree have been good reforms over the last three years? Kevin Rudd, or Tony Abbott? The bottom line is, you can’t do policy from opposition.]
If Rudd’s personal ratings keep improving it wouldn’t surprise me if this is how Labor runs its campaign. They basically set Rudd up as the incumbent, and then challenge the electorate to vote to make Abbott PM.
New seat betting up at Sportsbet.
Coalition favoured in 14 ALP held seats, level in 4. ALP not favourite in any Coalition held seat.
Sportsbet’s revised market reckons that there won’t be a big swing back to Labor in Queensland on election day on the back of the Rudd surge. Even in the relatively low-hanging Coalition seats Labor is still at $4 and so on.
@Kevin/1208
What did they get last time in the previous two elections?
2010
2007
?
My prediction: Rudd will win the election
If the libs shift leaders would it be to skinny joe or turnbull?
What will be their climate change policy if they do?
My post meant to ask “how is elite thinking disseminated?”
Marky
That is a very bold prediction.
In my view Labor ARE behind but if Rudd can cut through (and he may) and if he can campaign madnificently (which he may be capable of doing) then Labor are in with a real shot.
Unfortunately, the chances of Labor winning are less than the Coalition as it stands.
Still, patience and hope for the best. The chances are no longer bucklies 😎
Evening All
We are now on Day 4 of the Ruddstoration and an electoral contest seems to loom.
A few points to ponder:
– There was an interesting post earlier in the day that spoke of the Australian public lurching to one side or other at the last moment should another hung parliament loom, a good point but what if some lurch one way and others lurch the other and then we have hung parliament Mark II, an unpalatable prospect.
– Do a lot in the ALP actually want Kevin Rudd to win? Would he not be even more insufferable than last time if he won this time? or is this all part of the Bill Shorten long game.
– It is said that Rudd is doing Abbott’s head in but of course Abbott has done the ALP head in for almost 4 years.
Can Rudd expose the Monkey for all his cons?
Can Rudd persuade voters to change their minds?
Time will tell!
I’d much rather have Rudd there than anyone else.
Centre:
You are focused on the short term, whereas others are looking long term and what the current leadership might mean for the party reforming when it loses this election.
On recent history, the new leader would hang around after the loss, either stupidly insisting on continuing as leader, or whiteanting and destabilising a subsequent Labor LOTO until he is elected leader again. This is not healthy for party reform and regeneration.
zoidlord@1209
I have only sketchy past comments and they are usually related to a mix of bookmaker odds from different sources. In 2007 I noted that one week out Labor was favourite in 77 individual seats; they eventually won 83. In 2010 the various forms of seat-based betting were actually a much better guide than the headline betting rate, but they overestimated Labor’s result slightly.
[A few points to ponder:
– There was an interesting post earlier in the day that spoke of the Australian public lurching to one side or other at the last moment should another hung parliament loom, a good point but what if some lurch one way and others lurch the other and then we have hung parliament Mark II, an unpalatable prospect.]
I think it depends on if Rudd can do something on the Carbon price and asylum seekers before the election.
If Rudd can say that he got rid of the carbon price perhaps by shifting to an ETS from January 1st next year, and he can do something to make it harder for asylum seekers to become refugees, then there is 75% of Abbott’s election campaign gone.
Yes bold and maybe stupid, but i think this guy has an aura about him, i should not get carried away but he actually looks like a PM and tends to talk like one. It is early days but i think he will win.
I thought Bailleau would beat Brumby and was correct, just, and believe that Napthine will beat Andrews because Andrews is hopeless. If ever a guy cannot the message across it is him. Victorian ALP needs to find someone else with a bit more charm about them because Napthine has nothing going for him.
Regarding Rudd, the union and factional hacks will not be happy if he does win though.
Connie
Of course I’m focused on the short term. You cross one big bridge at a time.
And, in your bestest ever Rudd voice (can you hear him hehe) do you know something?
If Rudd wins, he goes out like Howard…at the time of his choosing 😆
You will love that won’t you :kiss:
@Confessions/1217
Which should happen when they are in Opposition.
Not while they have a still have a chance of winning again.
There is more at stake.
Seen a report that Chris Kenny said Newspoll similar results to other recent polls:
Trevor White ™ @TdwhiteWhite 3m
@chriskkenny #Newspoll #Viewpoint Chris said that newspoll out tomorrow has the same results as recent polls labour gaining ground #auspol
Newspoll is out tomorrow and is apparently a similar result to everything else out at the moment.
Not sure about Nielsen yet
@Kevin/1218
So again, they are over estimating this time?
An Age Poll last week suggested that the Carbon Tax had little influence on their thinking.
I actually think that the economy is more of a problem at present. Mining jobs are dissappearing and jobs in general are dissappearing. The economy is slowing rapidly, this could be more of a prob.
Asylum seekers are a prob as their numbers are draining the budget.
[Do a lot in the ALP actually want Kevin Rudd to win? Would he not be even more insufferable than last time if he won this time? or is this all part of the Bill Shorten long game.]
1. Yes we do. I would want Labor to win if it was led by Attila the Hun.
2. Yes he probably would be. That’s a risk we’ll have to run.
3. I doubt it. I think this week’s events have revealed that Bill is not as smart as people (including himself) thought he was. He looked like a man overwhelmed by events, and I think that’s what he was.
Bugger, so Newspoll won’t be out tonight, but with 4 polls showing Labor gaining ground, good to see.
marky marky
Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 8:48 pm | Permalink
What will be their climate change policy if they do?
———————————————————-
abolish the Climate Change Commission, the Climate Change Authority, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and the Energy Security Fund and bring the relevant functions in house under a merged Climate Change and Environment Department.
##incorporate the 4 depts. and make a “super” dept
implementing an incentive scheme called the Emissions Reduction Fund,
## tax by another name
financial penalty would be imposed on businesses that ‘go rogue’ and do not conform to ‘business as usual’ levels. He added that this would be based on best practice standards for emissions reduction. Alternatively, businesses would be rewarded for effective emissions abatement through the Coalition’s Emissions Reduction Fund.
## all funded from the budget – taxpayer money but it wont cost taxpayers anything
finer details, including in relation to the financial penalty, would be released after the election and subject to industry consultation.
## details of what they will do — wait until they are elected
Chris Kenny just reported that tomorrow’s Newspoll also shows a big improvement for Labor, with highest PV since the beginning of the year.
confessions
[We had a Newspoll a week ago. Honestly, this hyper-polling is getting completely out of control.]
After a change of PM I’d have been surprised if there weren’t one, and that’s the only reason they’d be doing it.
The economy is going to be a big issue in the years ahead because other than mining Australia does not have much else going for it. How we handle the future is a significant issue.
Halleluia! Praise the Lord! The day of reckoning has arrived for all those leftie unbelievers who think that the false prophet, Kev from Queensland, is here to help. Sing along with Tones as he evangelises the party faithful at their pious policy launch yesterday.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/national/abbotts-blue-flag-rally-20130629-2p3n5.html
He’s hymnifyin’ the old Sensational Alex Harvey Band hit, “Faith Healer”, from John Howard’s favourite show, The BBC’s Old Grey Whistle Test.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aabojNSensw
:- )
If the polls’re goin’ bad
Cos of Kev, the recycled cad
Don’t fret, I’ll take away the pain
Soon things’ll be back the same
But if yah don’t do as I said
I’ll punch the wall beside yah head
Your spirit never has to grieve
All yah got to do’s believe
:- )
The faith healer
The faith healer
:- )
For y’all the end is nigh
If yah don’t kit out in a blue tie
But on second thoughts, hang fire
Kev’s got one out on hire
It don’t matter what Galaxy said
This healer man will sail away
Stop the boats and Kevvie too
Vote for me or there’ll be a blue
:- )
The faith healer
The faith healer
:- )
Can I put my hands on you?
Knock me back, the day you’ll rue
Can I put my hands on you?
Knew you’d see my point of view
:- )
The faith healer
The faith healer
:- )
Faith, and hope and charity
Bron an’ Sophie an’ Julie
The Salvation Sisters Band
They can make you understand
If not, you’ll live to regret
Not joinin’ my sacred set
If yah don’t yah’ll cop a welt
From my righteous Bible Belt
:- )
The faith healer
The faith healer
Can I put my hands on you?
Abbott to gutless to debate Rudd on economics…so much for the Rhodes Scholar with a degree in economics….
[A SURVEY of women conducted in the dying days of Julia Gillard’s prime ministership found that 82 per cent gave her high scores indicating their approval of the way she was handling her job. Only 17 per cent gave low scores, disapproving of her performance.
But the survey showed that only 10 per cent gave high scores indicating their approval of the way Tony Abbott is handling his job as Opposition Leader. Ninety per cent gave him low scores, disapproving of Mr Abbott’s job performance.
The Australian Centre for Leadership for Women (ACLW) conducted a research study designed to explore and understand how women viewed then-Prime Minister Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s performance in terms of their leadership and understanding of women’s issues.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/women-supported-gillard-to-the-end/story-fnhqeu0x-1226671250766
@marky marky/1231
Perhaps one of those cash grabs again like last time? (though shouldn’t do as much as $900 per person – that was crazy).
triton:
Today’s press gallery do seem to rely very heavily on polls for reportage fodder.
Very sad.
zoidlord@1225
We’ll see!
They’re playing piggy in the middle between (i) the view that Labor will go through the bounce and go back to somewhere almost as bad as they were (ii) the view that Labor will make a sustained recovery to about 50-50 with a very close election. The market at this stage does not have the information to say which one of these things is true or if it will be something in between, and the bookies seem to have framed their relaunched market that way to reduce their risk.
As I understand it, this is like a new starting market effectively – what the bookies think, not what the punters think. I’ll be watching the Queensland odds especially to see what they do this week.
That survey referred to by Karvelas (#1234) looks like it was an opt-in and not a valid poll of the general female population.
[tomorrow’s Newspoll ]
Does this mean “tomorrow morning’s Newspoll” (ie, appearing tonight), or “tomorrow night’s Newspoll” (published Tuesday)?
[ Whereas sticking with Gillard wouldn’t have been a risky move, it would’ve just handed the election to the Coalition. ]
Nice to have you arguing rationally instead of just being “Shouty ShowsOn” for a change.
However, your response doesn’t really address my argument that reinstating Rudd can only be seen as a sensible move if he wins. Otherwise, it will forever more be ridiculed as a mind-bogglingly stupid thing to do.
And not everyone thinks it likely that Rudd will win. And the polls (currently) don’t show it either. Rudd’s “honeymoon” (such as it is) could so easily come to a crashing close as soon as next week, when the LNP will undoubtedly try to brand him as a disloyal, destabilizing, Gillard stalker.
Yes, after the fact you can rationalize all you like that you were just trying to “save the furniture”. It won’t matter, because the furniture you just saved will turn out to be a bunch of milk crates, wooden boxes covered with sticky-backed plastic, and various oddments that even the charity shops wouldn’t take – and your household has just burned down around you.
So Newspoll has highest Labor primary for the year? What was the highest? Was there a 35 or 36 in Jan? A recall some 50-50s on TPP around that time…
Psephos@1239
Looks like the former.
The bookies have framed their current market according to the chances of the parties as they see fit as at 30/6/13.
confessions
[Today’s press gallery do seem to rely very heavily on polls for reportage fodder.
Very sad.]
I agree, but you can forgive them just this once because the only reason Gillard is gone is the polls. Everyone is hanging out for the poll effect.
[So Newspoll has highest Labor primary for the year? What was the highest? Was there a 35 or 36 in Jan? A recall some 50-50s on TPP around that time…]
The very first poll this year in mid January was 38, but then the next poll was 32.
“Tomorrow” for a poll has also meant the following morning as far as I can remember, since it belongs to the newspaper publishing it.
Highest PV since the beginning of the year
[the bookies seem to have framed their relaunched market that way to reduce their risk.]
The bookies always frame their market to reduce risk 😎
Which was 38… So tonight’s is 38+
Albo gets Communications:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/anthony-albanese-takes-communications-portfolio/story-e6frgakx-1226672209711
His job is to go through every marginal seat and sell the NBN.